Proper bet spreading for Ace sequencing

[Jack_Black]

Is there such a thing? I'm getting the feeling that ace tracking is not an exact science like card counting is. Either tracking aces works, or it doesn't for different shuffles. you just have to experiment a little and that's it

with that, is there a minimum spread rule to follow? say for DD, SD, 6D, and non traditional BJ games?

 

[Sucker]

is there a minimum spread rule to follow? say for DD, SD, 6D, and non traditional BJ games?

Ace tracking IS an exact science - it's just that, unlike card counting; there are no humans who can implement it EXACTLY.

A whole book could be written on this subject and you still couldn't get the definitive answer to this question, although there technically IS one. The answer to the problem of proper bet sizing lies in the answer to the following two questions: "What is the chance that an ace WILL fall on my hand?" (successful hit); and: "What is the chance that the DEALER will get an ace?" (reverse hit).

There are a myriad of variables that can affect this - The shuffle itself, the nuances of the dealer, skill level of the tracker, how many players are at the table (providing protection against the ace falling to the dealer); etc. And don't forget Murphy's Law!

I believe that the best way for an ace tracker to determine optimal bet size is through empirical observation of your own personal results. Keep perfect records of every big bet you make, categorizing the situations: What was the shuffle like? Was it a hit or a miss? Was it (groan) a reverse hit? How many players were at the table? And anything else you might deem noteworthy.

After several hundred bets you will START to get an answer to the two questions I posed in my second paragraph and you will be on your way to turning this into an exact science.

 

[zengrifter]

I believe that the best way for an ace tracker to determine optimal bet size is through empirical observation of your own personal results. ... After several hundred bets you will START to get an answer ... be on your way to turning this into an exact science.

Now there is a sticky wicket. zg

 

[Sucker]

Now there is a sticky wicket. zg

I agree 100%. And were it not for the fact that the reward for a successful hit is so high, it's doubtful that ace-tracking would even be worth anyone's time.

 

[zengrifter]

I agree 100%. And were it not for the fact that the reward for a successful hit is so high, it's doubtful that ace-tracking would even be worth anyone's time.

Math - 2D simple keycard approach, no mneumonic assit >

1. I have a 1 in 2 chance of spotting correct keycard 50% edge/2 = 25%

2. A 1 in 6 chance of getting (extra) Ace one of my two hands.

3. 50%/2/6 = 4% approx advantage per two hands.

Did I miss anything? zg

 

[Brock Windsor]

Math - 2D simple keycard approach, no mneumonic assit >

1. I have a 1 in 2 chance of spotting correct keycard 50% edge/2 = 25%

2. A 1 in 6 chance of getting (extra) Ace one of my two hands.

3. 50%/2/6 = 4% approx advantage per two hands.

Did I miss anything? zg

A few thoughts, what is the chance the extra Ace will land on the dealer hand? Next, if you catch the ace you are looking for 1 time in 6, does that mean the double deck game you were playing only had 7 possible aces to catch the other 5 times? or did you factor in the times you randomly caught the ace you were looking for in your 1 in 6 figure? I don't sequence games yet, but these are some things I've come across.
-BW

 

[Sucker]

A few thoughts, what is the chance the extra Ace will land on the dealer hand?

Again; this is TOTALLY dependent upon the game ITSELF - the house shuffle, the strip, the nuances of the dealer, how old the cards are; even the BRAND of cards used!(Hint: Check out the Boyd Group cards, the ones with the white backs). Unless you're lucky enough to get with an experienced tracker who's willing to train you in these areas, the only way to gain this knowledge is through the school of "hard knocks". The GOOD news is; because of the tremendous strength of the ace, you WILL be playing at a very good advantage while you're learning, ESPECIALLY if you start off by only playing the easier shuffles, and save the tougher ones for later.

Next, if you catch the ace you are looking for 1 time in 6, does that mean the double deck game you were playing only had 7 possible aces to catch the other 5 times? or did you factor in the times you randomly caught the ace you were looking for in your 1 in 6 figure?

This factor, while true; has much less effect on the game than it seems, and in the multiple deck games is almost negligible, for all intents and purposes.

 

[zengrifter]

A few thoughts, what is the chance the extra Ace will land on the dealer hand? Next, if you catch the ace you are looking for 1 time in 6, does that mean the double deck game you were playing only had 7 possible aces to catch the other 5 times? or did you factor in the times you randomly caught the ace you were looking for in your 1 in 6 figure? I don't sequence games yet, but these are some things I've come across.
-BW

The only thing I worry about is to note the keycard preceeding the Ace. That gives me a 50% change of it being the 'correct' keycard and the Ace is close behind. I spread to two hands and go to my max cardcounting bet (only, so its not optimal but its also relatively safe). This is why I mostly opt for 1st base at 2D now. This requires no more effort than an Ace-density side count for betting, maybe less, and has potentially bigger profit. zg

 

[Jack_Black]

If the game I'm playing only pays BJs at 6:5, doesn't this change the value of having the ace in your hand? It must be less advantage, but how much less? can this be expressed as a percent value?

what I mean by not being an exact science, is that card counting can be back tested through billions of billions of rounds. with that data, we can determine winrates, SCORES, CE, DI, ROR, and even optimize bet ramps. we can input game rules, pen, players at the table, etc. With ace tracking, I've just looked at different shuffles, imitate them at home, see if it's beatable or not.

I'm wondering if there is a way to optimize your betting as you can in card counting. or to know how much EV you are giving up if you shorten your spread for cover. my motto is about finding that perfect balance between cover and EV as the keys to success in the AP business.

 

[Sonny]

If the game I'm playing only pays BJs at 6:5, doesn't this change the value of having the ace in your hand? It must be less advantage, but how much less? can this be expressed as a percent value?

It depends on the rules of the game, but in a standard game the advantage drops from about 52.6% to about 43.6%. The value of the ace to the dealer (if he gets it as his upcard) also increases by about 1%. You still have a healthy advantage but your mistakes will be a little more costly.

-Sonny-

 

[Sucker]

In the 6:5 blackjack game, depending upon the rules and number of decks, an ace is worth a little bit more than 40% in EV.

As far as your other question; trying to quantify your exact advantage when it's time to make a bet - that IS a very good question, one that I ALSO shared when I first started tracking (and STILL haven't figured out). One thing that attracted me to CARD COUNTING in the FIRST place was the fact that you could always be sure of the EXACT mathematical answer to any problem.

Ace tracking is not like that. It has to be approached as a Fermi problem. (Enrico Fermi was the atomic scientist who was famous for his ability to take small bits of incomplete information, average them together, and come up with a remarkably close answer to a problem; hence the term "Fermi problem"). After all, poker players do this all the time.

My suggestion is to start off by only attacking the simpler shuffles. As the money rolls in and as you graduate to the more difficult games, your questions and concerns will answer THEMSELVES.

 

[zengrifter]

My suggestion is to start off by only attacking the simpler shuffles. As the money rolls in and as you graduate to the more difficult games, your questions and concerns will answer THEMSELVES.

I don't care for the way you've addressed the issue of shuffles, sound too much like shuffle tracking, which it isn't. Do you mean to say greater# of strips and riffles?? zg

 

[zengrifter]

If the game I'm playing only pays BJs at 6:5, doesn't this change the value of having the ace in your hand? It must be less advantage, but how much less? can this be expressed as a percent value?

Is this primarily a 1D game? Or 2D? zg

 

[Sucker]

I don't care for the way you've addressed the issue of shuffles, sound too much like shuffle tracking, which it isn't. Do you mean to say greater# of strips and riffles?? zg

Sorry for the confusion - just trying to be careful to refrain from going into too much detail on a public message board. There may be snitches out there listening to our every word....

 

[Jack_Black]

Is this primarily a 1D game? Or 2D? zg

It could be a myriad of different games. Those casino bastards haven't limited 6:5 payout on just SD.

 

[HockeXpert]

Let me further Jack_Black's question and ask what is the largest spread you can get away with, all math aside regarding br? DD is what I'm most interested in finding out but feel free to expound.

I experienced a pb run to the phone after checks play was called out with a 10-1 jump. I've played this same place a lot that way and that was the first time it got that reaction.

 

[Jack_Black]

Since ace tracking yields such an enormous advantage, am I correct to assume that a minimal spread will yield +ev results? I could possibly disregard poor rules and number of decks being used since any of those disadvantages by themselves are only worth about -0.10% to -0.5% each, whereas catching the ace will give you about 40-50% advantage?

Example:
8D
2d cut off
6:5 pays
D9,10,11 only

Heads up
1 hand 1 unit when not tracking
3 hands 3 units eAch when expecting the ace to come.

 

[Sucker]

Is this possibly too much info? Would you consider deleting this post?

Everything I said is already in the public domain - but you're right; and just to be safe, I edited it out anyway


Now you have to edit YOUR post & delete the part where you quoted me.

 

[zengrifter]

The only thing I worry about is to note the keycard preceeding the Ace. That gives me a 50% change of it being the 'correct' keycard and the Ace is close behind. I spread to two hands and go to my max cardcounting bet (only, so its not optimal but its also relatively safe). This is why I mostly opt for 1st base at 2D now. This requires no more effort than an Ace-density side count for betting, maybe less, and has potentially bigger profit. zg

See - http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2118#3

 

[zengrifter]

Is this possibly too much info? Would you consider deleting this post?

Stop it, its fine!! zg