Question for seasoned profitting Black Jack players (2 deck or 6 deck?)

#23
gronbog said:
Your notes are all about individual hands and hot/cold sessions. This is all completely useless information. You should be taking notes on things like penetration, game speed, crowding, bet spread, heat (or lack thereof), etc. Things that define the value of the game in the long run. You should also be tracking dealers who provide better than average conditions and pit personnel who are more/less tolerant than others.

You want to be able to look at your notes to help you decide where and when to play most effectively, not whether your luck was good or bad.
Right...I hear you.

But, besides regular play, it has been a psychological battle too...I want to remember what got me to winning or losing that night. It does not change the math, but it is for me personally. I have played about 900 hours in my short career and am a break-even player.

Just raised my bet spread (3) sessions ago to change from playing a break-even game, hopefully. The dealers at my place are trained very well to play through 6.5 decks. There is not really any change from one dealer to the next at home field.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#25
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
I am really considering raising my bets to the following:

-1,0,+1 = $10
+2 = $50
+3 = $100
+4 = $200

Sorry, I am a little late to the discussion. I don't like this spread at all. First as Don said, the very first jump that they will see $10 to $50 is too big.
There should be like a $25 @ +1. A TC of +1, really is made up of the whole bucket from +1 to +2, so even for s17 shoe games, it is just slightly +EV (for the bucket) and ok to raise. More importantly it smooths out the ramp.

I also am not crazy about a spread that goes through 3 colors, like red, green, black and they will start paying you in black after a while, even if your $200 is made up of green. I guess you can ask them for green only, but then you amass a huge pile of green and THAT draws attention.

The other thing about inserting that $25 wager at +1 is from that point on you can move to the next level by just taking a winning hand and adding to the original bet. THAT is a very natural way of increasing.

I am going to offer a little tip based on what I do. You may choose not to do it, but I am just sharing. When you buy in, the pit comes over and records your buy-in. They also record your first hand or two wager. So for your spread, they are going to record $10. So if at anytime they come back and you are wagering $200....boom, they instantly know your spread. Even if you are only to the $100 level, they instantly know what you have spread so far.

So what if you make your first wager $25 just for the first round or two. That is what they will record. You can drop back down by the second or third hand and this won't have cost you much (pennies actually). So then they come by again and see you wagering $100 or $200 and they are not seeing that large spread because they recorded your first wager as $25, not $10.

Just something to think about.
 
#26
KewlJ said:
Sorry, I am a little late to the discussion. I don't like this spread at all. First as Don said, the very first jump that they will see $10 to $50 is too big.
There should be like a $25 @ +1. A TC of +1, really is made up of the whole bucket from +1 to +2, so even for s17 shoe games, it is just slightly +EV (for the bucket) and ok to raise. More importantly it smooths out the ramp.

I also am not crazy about a spread that goes through 3 colors, like red, green, black and they will start paying you in black after a while, even if your $200 is made up of green. I guess you can ask them for green only, but then you amass a huge pile of green and THAT draws attention.

The other thing about inserting that $25 wager at +1 is from that point on you can move to the next level by just taking a winning hand and adding to the original bet. THAT is a very natural way of increasing.

I am going to offer a little tip based on what I do. You may choose not to do it, but I am just sharing. When you buy in, the pit comes over and records your buy-in. They also record your first hand or two wager. So for your spread, they are going to record $10. So if at anytime they come back and you are wagering $200....boom, they instantly know your spread. Even if you are only to the $100 level, they instantly know what you have spread so far.

So what if you make your first wager $25 just for the first round or two. That is what they will record. You can drop back down by the second or third hand and this won't have cost you much (pennies actually). So then they come by again and see you wagering $100 or $200 and they are not seeing that large spread because they recorded your first wager as $25, not $10.

Just something to think about.
I like that idea a lot, actually. Never thought about that. The $25 on the first two hands played.

Also, yeah, I can start doing $25 on +1 counts. I will incorporate that.
 
#27
I tested out the (2) $25 bets starting out last night...and I like it!!

From a purely emotional comment here...if I can break that $1,000 mark, it will be very emotional for me.

You have no idea how much of a wall I have been against to hit that...every time I get close, it has gone the opposite way.

I know, you all hate hearing this kind of talk. But, this is my reality.

Waiting to see the math come to fruition at some point. Emotions are real.


screenshot_20210903-111739_sheets-jpg.9200
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#28
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
I tested out the (2) $25 bets starting out last night...and I like it!!
Where is that in your notes? I'm not being snide. That would be a more appropriate note than the ones you're taking.
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
if I can break that $1,000 mark, it will be very emotional for me.
[ ... ]
I know, you all hate hearing this kind of talk. But, this is my reality.
Waiting to see the math come to fruition at some point. Emotions are real.
We hate hearing this kind of talk because it's a red flag. It's one thing to act appropriately emotional at the table but experiencing real emotions related to your short term results can be a dangerous thing. It can lead to one going on tilt. Being emotional about winning is just as dangerous as being that way about losses.
 
#29
gronbog said:
Where is that in your notes? I'm not being snide. That would be a more appropriate note than the ones you're taking.

We hate hearing this kind of talk because it's a red flag. It's one thing to act appropriately emotional at the table but experiencing real emotions related to your short term results can be a dangerous thing. It can lead to one going on tilt. Being emotional about winning is just as dangerous as being that way about losses.
After playing about 800 hours, I am not going to be fake. (650 of those hours were in 2019)

I do everything right, no matter what. Play like a robot w/ my bet spread, best strategy, and Illustrious 18 index, while wonging out at -2.

Now, playing with a larger bet spread to, hopefully, get away from a break-even game.

Everyone was new once. I hardly can imagine you were without strong emotion at the beginning.

When I first started (in 2019), I immediately made $2,100 and thought that is just how it works lol.

Then, I realized how it actually works.

Sure, I'll add a few things in notes, such as starting first (2) bets with $25, as well as which date I started with my new bet spread.


screenshot_20210904-103124_sheets-jpg.9201
 
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KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#32
I have no problem with a player taking a break, if he feels he needs to, a luxury most full-time players don't have.

But there is something you should understand about results and even this small sample size of your results bares this out.

1.) the bigger winning and losing sessions are a direct result of what occurs with a relatively minor number of rounds, in which your max bet is played. You win the majority of these and you have a big winning session and likewise if you lose the majority, you have a big losing session. It really is that simple.

2.) better games and condition, like heads up play and/or deeply dealt games that produce more of these max bet opportunities will be the sessions that result in these big swings in both directions.

So while these conditions are what we all seek, because over the long run, you will win, in the short run, you can experience that bigger loss from losing these max bet opportunities.

Once you understand that and are properly bankrolled, you probably won't have that need to take a break, but again, if you feel you need a break, take one. Better than chasing losses, overbetting and just playing undisciplined.
 
#35
Well, I am playing most days still. It did at least stop going in the wrong direction.

I'm very new to this larger spread. Sure hope I can play the rest of my life off this $5k bankroll.

I'll keep you updated periodically, not daily as I know that is extremely annoying and pointless lol
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#37
You don't need to get to 1 million hands to have meaningful results. You only need to get to 1 x N0 for an approximately 84% chance that your results are meaningful and 4 x N0 for an approximately ~98% chance. At 9 x N0, it's pretty much guaranteed that your results are meaningful.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#38
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
I'm very new to this larger spread.
I am in my 18th year of supporting myself from my blackjack play. So last year 2020, was my 17th year. (see the math I did with that? :p)

So last year when casinos re-opened after the covid shutdown, I doubled my regular stakes, knowing that the pit would be busy with extra 'duties' and with masks and all, I could play higher stakes without additional heat. So wouldn't you know I immediately hit some pretty severe negative variance. Five figure losses, multiple days at the same property. This was much bigger losses and swing that I was used to and I started thinking all kinds of crazy thoughts. So my point is that even in my 17th year (at the time) a larger spread, and larger swings and variance can take some getting used to. o_O
 
#39
KewlJ said:
I am in my 18th year of supporting myself from my blackjack play. So last year 2020, was my 17th year. (see the math I did with that? :p)

So last year when casinos re-opened after the covid shutdown, I doubled my regular stakes, knowing that the pit would be busy with extra 'duties' and with masks and all, I could play higher stakes without additional heat. So wouldn't you know I immediately hit some pretty severe negative variance. Five figure losses, multiple days at the same property. This was much bigger losses and swing that I was used to and I started thinking all kinds of crazy thoughts. So my point is that even in my 17th year (at the time) a larger spread, and larger swings and variance can take some getting used to. o_O
Yeah, it is no fun (for me) to lose $2,000 of a $5,000 bank roll in two days. Well, I had expanded my bank roll to $6,200 before that hit. I have recouped $1,200 of the $2,000 loss since then.

If I was new, that would be not terrible, psychologically.

However, I played (2) years, roughly 750 hours, playing a break-even game (thus, why I have raised my bet spread) so I am ready to see some fruits at some point for the hours I have put in :)
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#40
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
Sure hope I can play the rest of my life off this $5k bankroll.
At the level you are betting, the chance is extremely low.
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
Yeah, it is no fun (for me) to lose $2,000 of a $5,000 bank roll in two days. Well, I had expanded my bank roll to $6,200 before that hit.
You are severely over betting your bankroll. Your risk of ruin must be close to 100%.
 
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