questions about "what's big" and other limits

[plainplayer]

Brief background... Due to having been laid off a few months back, getting far too little new interest from my resume, and looking into other avenues, I coincidentally spent the last 2 months in some really serious study of the game, have analyzed both the game and myself into near catatonia, but came down on what I regard as a workable approach.

Sometime last week, I decided it was time to try it out. I walked into a casino not too far from home holding a $X stake (from bi-weekly unemployment benefit of $X*8). 2hr30min later, I walked out with $X*3.5 in my hand and feeling really good about my future possibilities. $X was not trivial, but neither was it thousands. No matter how you look at it, I made out well, and feel very positive indeed about my methodology.

Now I'm up against a bunch of questions, as I think about trying to take this as seriously as it seems is now warranted by this proof of concept, with which I will of course be experimenting further in the coming weeks, so as to prove it wasn't just a beginner's luck/flash in the pan/every dog has his day sort of event.

And before I ask questions, let me mention that I realize full well that I am new, therefore inexperienced, therefore naïve, and in all likelihood something of an idjit. Fair enough. I'm also a big boy, so I can take constructive criticism well. Feel free to critique my situation and even my questions in a fair way if you think I'm exposing any excessively doofus-like behavior.

- The 4 casinos that are within a reasonable drive of home are not high-roller LV-style places. I'm in the midwest, and the local casino color is a bit low-grade and dulled. In such an environment, how big can a person afford to win before PBs begin to take inconvenient notice? When playing the $5:$500 tables -- I'm new, I'm playing small -- is cashing out $1K regarded as a big deal? ($X*3.5 was under $1K, but not by a lot.) If not, where is the border of "big deal" to the PBs? Does "big deal" vary as a function of one's table's min:max limits?

- How regularly can one visit (and win well at) a given casino before that inconvenient notice? As I said, 4 casinos not terribly far; closest is just 30min from home (last week's test run), farthest is 2+ hrs away. It would be nice to be able to use them rather often. Wise or foolish?

- How advisable is, say, deliberately trashing oneself now and then -- just coming in with a modest stake and subtly blowing it, as a means of cover against otherwise winning?

- If one travels to a better casino-dense location, is there value in making the rounds through several casinos? Say, spend an hour or two at a time, before moving on to another?

- We're going on a cruise in a couple weeks. (Paid for before being laid off; non-refundable, non-transferable, so we're going.) It's a Carnival ship. How do shipboard casinos differ from US-land-based? Tighter/looser restrictions, table limits, disagreeability of PBs and other personnel?

I'm sure I'll have more questions, and I certainly have to prove that my methodology is successful beyond a single day's good pay, but I can't help but begin already to think bigger, and therefore to think about the risks that go with thinking/playing bigger. I'm trying to put my head into a suitable understanding of "big" and "risk" and other concerns.

 

[creeping panther]

Plain

Brief background... Due to having been laid off a few months back, getting far too little new interest from my resume, and looking into other avenues, I coincidentally spent the last 2 months in some really serious study of the game, have analyzed both the game and myself into near catatonia, but came down on what I regard as a workable approach.

Sometime last week, I decided it was time to try it out. I walked into a casino not too far from home holding a $X stake (from bi-weekly unemployment benefit of $X*8). 2hr30min later, I walked out with $X*3.5 in my hand and feeling really good about my future possibilities. $X was not trivial, but neither was it thousands. No matter how you look at it, I made out well, and feel very positive indeed about my methodology.

Now I'm up against a bunch of questions, as I think about trying to take this as seriously as it seems is now warranted by this proof of concept, with which I will of course be experimenting further in the coming weeks, so as to prove it wasn't just a beginner's luck/flash in the pan/every dog has his day sort of event.

And before I ask questions, let me mention that I realize full well that I am new, therefore inexperienced, therefore naïve, and in all likelihood something of an idjit. Fair enough. I'm also a big boy, so I can take constructive criticism well. Feel free to critique my situation and even my questions in a fair way if you think I'm exposing any excessively doofus-like behavior.

- The 4 casinos that are within a reasonable drive of home are not high-roller LV-style places. I'm in the midwest, and the local casino color is a bit low-grade and dulled. In such an environment, how big can a person afford to win before PBs begin to take inconvenient notice? When playing the $5:$500 tables -- I'm new, I'm playing small -- is cashing out $1K regarded as a big deal? ($X*3.5 was under $1K, but not by a lot.) If not, where is the border of "big deal" to the PBs? Does "big deal" vary as a function of one's table's min:max limits?

- How regularly can one visit (and win well at) a given casino before that inconvenient notice? As I said, 4 casinos not terribly far; closest is just 30min from home (last week's test run), farthest is 2+ hrs away. It would be nice to be able to use them rather often. Wise or foolish?

- How advisable is, say, deliberately trashing oneself now and then -- just coming in with a modest stake and subtly blowing it, as a means of cover against otherwise winning?

- If one travels to a better casino-dense location, is there value in making the rounds through several casinos? Say, spend an hour or two at a time, before moving on to another?

- We're going on a cruise in a couple weeks. (Paid for before being laid off; non-refundable, non-transferable, so we're going.) It's a Carnival ship. How do shipboard casinos differ from US-land-based? Tighter/looser restrictions, table limits, disagreeability of PBs and other personnel?

I'm sure I'll have more questions, and I certainly have to prove that my methodology is successful beyond a single day's good pay, but I can't help but begin already to think bigger, and therefore to think about the risks that go with thinking/playing bigger. I'm trying to put my head into a suitable understanding of "big" and "risk" and other concerns.

This is a dangerous proposition using unemployment funds to start an AP BJ career. I wonder how you will act when you have your first big negative swing, it will come.

There is no set rule for how the casino will react as they all could have a different threshold. Usually a $1000 win will garner attention and a skilled player will garner attention. The dealer will most likely alert the pit on his, her break about you. If you continue to win you will for sure get attention, what kind, well you will find that out.

First thing is your personality and cover act and plays. Also do you tip, dealers love a tipper, I tip very good when I make my moves almost always taking the dealer along. Also is there events at the casino you can take part in...tourneys...? You need to get to the point of being a regular and that means in many places you are untochable.

What are the games and rules??

CP

 

[plainplayer]

This is a dangerous proposition using unemployment funds to start an AP BJ career. I wonder how you will act when you have your first big negative swing, it will come.

Hm, "career," not sure. "Fill the gap better, while waiting for something else to happen in my field," much more likely.

I've been experimenting madly for months, and I was truly confident in my methodology (I hesitate to call it a "system") so I didn't feel I had that much to worry about, and the actual $X I used was squirreled away in $50 increments over the preceding several months, while I studied. I didn't threaten this month's grocery money. The clear profit over $X is now effectively free money with which to experiment a bit more.

There is no set rule for how the casino will react as they all could have a different threshold. Usually a $1000 win will garner attention and a skilled player will garner attention. The dealer will most likely alert the pit on his, her break about you. If you continue to win you will for sure get attention, what kind, well you will find that out.

Well, yes, I realize the problem of attention, hence the question at all, plus the reference to "inconvenient notice." And I realize that local habits might vary, which is why I mentioned midwest locale, if that might be useful context. I'm new, but not entirely ignorant.

OK, so perhaps I need to be careful already. Pity.

The dealers changed several times during my tenure at the table. Pit folk came by with some regularity, idly looking over the play. I made an effort not to take an interest in them, and I don't think they took any special interest in me. But I can't be sure.

As I was coloring up to leave, a new player was sitting down at another seat. He saw how I was cashing out and expressed an intense emotion and wondered aloud how much was clear. Like an idiot, I told him, with the PB standing over the dealer's shoulder to check the final chips. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

First thing is your personality and cover act and plays. Also do you tip, dealers love a tipper, I tip very good when I make my moves almost always taking the dealer along.

If I say so myself, I'm a reasonably affable fellow, I am happy to chat with the dealer and the other players, and it was a very easygoing time, lots of jokes and laughs. I believe I tipped $35 during the time I was there. Or should I say, I tried to tip -- local etiquette seems to be that tipping is (exclusively?) done by making a side bet for the dealer. I did that 6 or 7 times, and I think won 5 of those. Is that good? I kinda thought it was.

I'm a very small bettor for now, mostly, hanging steadily around the $5-$20 level, very rarely stepping up to $40 or $50. I just play a certain consistent type of game which pays pretty steadily. I'm experimenting, but in earnest.

Also is there events at the casino you can take part in...tourneys...? You need to get to the point of being a regular and that means in many places you are untochable.

Very useful information. I don't know about that, but I will look into it.

 

[creeping panther]

Plain

Hm, "career," not sure. "Fill the gap better, while waiting for something else to happen in my field," much more likely.

I've been experimenting madly for months, and I was truly confident in my methodology (I hesitate to call it a "system") so I didn't feel I had that much to worry about, and the actual $X I used was squirreled away in $50 increments over the preceding several months, while I studied. I didn't threaten this month's grocery money. The clear profit over $X is now effectively free money with which to experiment a bit more.


Well, yes, I realize the problem of attention, hence the question at all, plus the reference to "inconvenient notice." And I realize that local habits might vary, which is why I mentioned midwest locale, if that might be useful context. I'm new, but not entirely ignorant.

OK, so perhaps I need to be careful already. Pity.

The dealers changed several times during my tenure at the table. Pit folk came by with some regularity, idly looking over the play. I made an effort not to take an interest in them, and I don't think they took any special interest in me. But I can't be sure.

As I was coloring up to leave, a new player was sitting down at another seat. He saw how I was cashing out and expressed an intense emotion and wondered aloud how much was clear. Like an idiot, I told him, with the PB standing over the dealer's shoulder to check the final chips. Stupid, stupid, stupid.


If I say so myself, I'm a reasonably affable fellow, I am happy to chat with the dealer and the other players, and it was a very easygoing time, lots of jokes and laughs. I believe I tipped $35 during the time I was there. Or should I say, I tried to tip -- local etiquette seems to be that tipping is (exclusively?) done by making a side bet for the dealer. I did that 6 or 7 times, and I think won 5 of those. Is that good? I kinda thought it was.

I'm a very small bettor for now, mostly, hanging steadily around the $5-$20 level, very rarely stepping up to $40 or $50. I just play a certain consistent type of game which pays pretty steadily. I'm experimenting, but in earnest.


Very useful information. I don't know about that, but I will look into it.

Tipping, Better to tip by betting alongside your bet for the dealer, never just give them money.

Also what you bought in for is no ones business, just say "it looks better than it is". As to the pit hearing what you said....don't worry they know exactly waht you walked with, best not even try to hid it, that will raise suspicion and make their job harder. Also do not ignore the pit, chat them up look in their eyes and say hello. I have one PC that I believe dislikes me because he takes my win rate personally. Last weekend I saw an opportunity to chat with him about a sporting event that was held at the casino that we both attended, I think that really broke the ice with him and I have a strong feeling he will be much more laid back with me now. I tell you this to show there are many little things you can do that can add up in a positive way in the long run. Also if you have chewing gum or candy offer it to the dealer or pit...little things.

CP

 

[kewljason]

I hate to be a glumy gus, plainplayer, but you are in over your head, and the most likely outcome to your experiment, will be that sometime in the very near future, you will lose the money you have just won and be behind. There are wild swings in the game of blackjack and you need a bigger bankroll to substain those swings. Without knowing the rules of your game, your initial trip most likely was played at a negative expected value.

On average, you can expect to make somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-2 units per hour, long term. You played 2.5 hours, so lets be generous and say 5 units of expected value. You were playing $5 to $20 with occassional $40-50 bets. That's $5 units. Expected value for the trip $25. You tipped $35! (you gave everything you were expected to win and then some to the dealer) That's negative $10 expected value before you even add in travel expenses. You need to re-elvaluate and come up with a better game plan.

wishing you good luck with your situation and hoping the economy picks up for your sake, as well as alot of other peoples.

 

[ihate17]

Limited funds, then limit risk but give nothing away

I am not advising you to play with unemployment funds or any funds that might be needed for yourself or loved ones but if you insist on playing here is what I would suggest.
Even though I tip some I would suggest that you can not afford to tip because your betting level and EV are low and you are playing at a job and not playing for the enjoyment of beating a casino at their own game.

I would wong in and out continuously. This enables you to not need a big spread to beat the game as you should only be placing bets on hands where at least you have a slight advantage.

I would not worry about longevity or pit attention if I won or lost. Your stakes are not high and the chance of getting burned should be remote but if you did get burned at least you would have done all you could do to earn an income before.

New players worry too much about cover and heat in my opinion. The books they read are written by people who often play higher stakes where cover can be important and you need to know that in many places lower level players are not even noticed.

ihate17

 

[HockeXpert]

I echo the wise advice already given

plainplayer:

To echo the excellent, expert advise you already got, Wong exclusively or as much as possible. Limit or eliminate your tipping, at this stage, until you have a reason to tip like getting increased penetration. Don't worry so much about heat at small stakes but just keep your eyes open and learn what real heat feels like. Don't think your first experience is anywhere close to reality because you will have some big losses relative to your bankroll. What you experienced is "beginner's luck" (no such thing) and should not be perceived as typical.

That being said, I personally wouldn't advise anyone on unemployment to try bj as a job especially with no prior experience and especially without skills that go beyond counting. At those stakes, I would say it would be more profitable to do some side work under the table (not the bj table) depending on what your field and skills are, until you get a permanent job.

One thing you are not considering is that each trip to the casino has an expense related to it unless you are going to the casino for a job fair or other reason other then bj. It costs you $X in gas and car maintenance expenses for each trip you take. I would guess that your EV is pretty close to $X at your stakes. We would need more information such at the rules, # of decks and penetration to tell you.

BJ games have deteriorated to the point (with rules that favor the house, decreased penetration and shuffle machines) where it is very difficult to make it significantly profitable by counting alone. You may be reading material that is dated and may give you a sense of false hope.

If you want to try it, search for the best games possible and wong in and out. You may want to read Snyder's Blackbelt in BJ. He touches on how to play with a replenishable bankroll and is packed with other great information.

HockeXpert

 

[sagefr0g]

....
I would not worry about longevity or pit attention if I won or lost. Your stakes are not high and the chance of getting burned should be remote but if you did get burned at least you would have done all you could do to earn an income before.
...
ihate17

lmao, i love the statement above, cause it shows the thinking of an AP.

i mean the question of cover not withstanding, it's the subtle under current of the thought process that's even more interesting.

like the whole situation is evaluated in terms of Risk, Value and Probability for the upside and downside, lol.

 

[creeping panther]

Wise Won

lmao, i love the statement above, cause it shows the thinking of an AP.

i mean the question of cover not withstanding, it's the subtle under current of the thought process that's even more interesting.

like the whole situation is evaluated in terms of Risk, Value and Probability for the upside and downside, lol.

Nice observation Sage.

CP

 

[creeping panther]

xpert

plainplayer:

To echo the excellent, expert advise you already got, Wong exclusively or as much as possible. Limit or eliminate your tipping, at this stage, until you have a reason to tip like getting increased penetration. Don't worry so much about heat at small stakes but just keep your eyes open and learn what real heat feels like. Don't think your first experience is anywhere close to reality because you will have some big losses relative to your bankroll. What you experienced is "beginner's luck" (no such thing) and should not be perceived as typical.

That being said, I personally wouldn't advise anyone on unemployment to try bj as a job especially with no prior experience and especially without skills that go beyond counting. At those stakes, I would say it would be more profitable to do some side work under the table (not the bj table) depending on what your field and skills are, until you get a permanent job.

One thing you are not considering is that each trip to the casino has an expense related to it unless you are going to the casino for a job fair or other reason other then bj. It costs you $X in gas and car maintenance expenses for each trip you take. I would guess that your EV is pretty close to $X at your stakes. We would need more information such at the rules, # of decks and penetration to tell you.

BJ games have deteriorated to the point (with rules that favor the house, decreased penetration and shuffle machines) where it is very difficult to make it significantly profitable by counting alone. You may be reading material that is dated and may give you a sense of false hope.

If you want to try it, search for the best games possible and wong in and out. You may want to read Snyder's Blackbelt in BJ. He touches on how to play with a replenishable bankroll and is packed with other great information.

HockeXpert

Knowing the area this gent is playing in influenced my advice to him. It is different there than most here realize.

Also he may be playing games most could only have wet dreams about.

CP

 

[HockeXpert]

Thanks, CP. I'm packing my bags!

 

[shadroch]

It doesn't bother anyone that the OP never once mentions counting. He talks about his methodology( doesn't want to call it a system).
For all we know, he's invented the martingale.

 

[kewljason]

It doesn't bother anyone that the OP never once mentions counting. He talks about his methodology( doesn't want to call it a system).
For all we know, he's invented the martingale.

good point Shad, but I guess we are giving him the benifit of the doubt that if he spent several months seriously studying that he has at least learned a way to play with an advantage. Based on his tipping more than EV, perhaps we have overestimated him. Another reason that I assumed he at least thought he was playing with an advantage is because he was concerned about cover and drawing attention.

 

[Canceler]

It bothered me, but I was waiting for someone else...

It doesn't bother anyone that the OP never once mentions counting. He talks about his methodology( doesn't want to call it a system).
For all we know, he's invented the martingale.

Thank you, shadroch!

 

[mdlbj]

Get a job.

Brief background... Due to having been laid off a few months back, getting far too little new interest from my resume, and looking into other avenues, I coincidentally spent the last 2 months in some really serious study of the game, have analyzed both the game and myself into near catatonia, but came down on what I regard as a workable approach.

Sometime last week, I decided it was time to try it out. I walked into a casino not too far from home holding a $X stake (from bi-weekly unemployment benefit of $X*8). 2hr30min later, I walked out with $X*3.5 in my hand and feeling really good about my future possibilities. $X was not trivial, but neither was it thousands. No matter how you look at it, I made out well, and feel very positive indeed about my methodology.

Now I'm up against a bunch of questions, as I think about trying to take this as seriously as it seems is now warranted by this proof of concept, with which I will of course be experimenting further in the coming weeks, so as to prove it wasn't just a beginner's luck/flash in the pan/every dog has his day sort of event.

And before I ask questions, let me mention that I realize full well that I am new, therefore inexperienced, therefore naïve, and in all likelihood something of an idjit. Fair enough. I'm also a big boy, so I can take constructive criticism well. Feel free to critique my situation and even my questions in a fair way if you think I'm exposing any excessively doofus-like behavior.

- The 4 casinos that are within a reasonable drive of home are not high-roller LV-style places. I'm in the midwest, and the local casino color is a bit low-grade and dulled. In such an environment, how big can a person afford to win before PBs begin to take inconvenient notice? When playing the $5:$500 tables -- I'm new, I'm playing small -- is cashing out $1K regarded as a big deal? ($X*3.5 was under $1K, but not by a lot.) If not, where is the border of "big deal" to the PBs? Does "big deal" vary as a function of one's table's min:max limits?

- How regularly can one visit (and win well at) a given casino before that inconvenient notice? As I said, 4 casinos not terribly far; closest is just 30min from home (last week's test run), farthest is 2+ hrs away. It would be nice to be able to use them rather often. Wise or foolish?

- How advisable is, say, deliberately trashing oneself now and then -- just coming in with a modest stake and subtly blowing it, as a means of cover against otherwise winning?

- If one travels to a better casino-dense location, is there value in making the rounds through several casinos? Say, spend an hour or two at a time, before moving on to another?

- We're going on a cruise in a couple weeks. (Paid for before being laid off; non-refundable, non-transferable, so we're going.) It's a Carnival ship. How do shipboard casinos differ from US-land-based? Tighter/looser restrictions, table limits, disagreeability of PBs and other personnel?

I'm sure I'll have more questions, and I certainly have to prove that my methodology is successful beyond a single day's good pay, but I can't help but begin already to think bigger, and therefore to think about the risks that go with thinking/playing bigger. I'm trying to put my head into a suitable understanding of "big" and "risk" and other concerns.

 

[Mr. T]

Boy oh boy, playing with unemployment benefit money. This must surely beat playing with monthly rent money.

 

[irobinson]

Boy oh boy, playing with unemployment benefit money. This must surely beat playing with monthly rent money.

Or someone else's "borrowed" money....