RED 7's after 60 hours
- Thread starter haxxilla
- Start date
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
unless your lucky since your asking you might lose one heck of a lot of money.
reason being, because one can only assume that you think your expectation would be the same for virtually any game (rule set, # of decks, penetration) at what ever bet spread one might imagine.
but those would be a few factors to consider if you'd want to come up with a valid expectation when employing the red 7 count.
Sonny
Well-Known Member
Expected Gain = Hourly EV * 60
Your Hourly EV can vary wildly based on the game you play and your playing/betting strategy. Most card counters assume a 1-1.5 unit win per hour so that would put your expected gain between 60-90 units, but that's just a ballpark estimate. You would need to get a more accurate idea of your EV before you can amswer that question with any degree of accuracy. Also, as sagefrog mentioned, the short-term swings will be wild too. After 60 hours you could end up almost anywhere.
-Sonny-
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Most good games, well played, will give you a win rate of between 0.2 and 0.3 big bets per 100 hands. BB/100 is a better metric of the quality of a game played in a certain manner. But I think most of us have little idea of how many hands per hour we play.
suicyco maniac
Well-Known Member
Some players religiously track hands per hour.
Automatic Monkey
Banned
You mean... with Rosary beads? :angel:
O yah I forgot about the rules
8 deck
85% pen
s17
On card on a's
resplit to 4 times
DAS
25 min bet
When the count comes to 0 (pivot point with red sevens) I bet 2 units
When the count comes to 6 I bet 3 units
When the count comes to 8 I bet 4 units
10 bet 5 units
12 6 units
14 7 units
16 8 units (Max bet)
Thanks for the quick answers people. Let me know if you would need more info about the game I am playing
8 deck
85% pen
s17
On card on a's
resplit to 4 times
DAS
25 min bet
When the count comes to 0 (pivot point with red sevens) I bet 2 units
When the count comes to 6 I bet 3 units
When the count comes to 8 I bet 4 units
10 bet 5 units
12 6 units
14 7 units
16 8 units (Max bet)
Thanks for the quick answers people. Let me know if you would need more info about the game I am playing
SystemsTrader
Well-Known Member
Haxxilla I hope you are not actually playing this game with real money. It's just terrible, you would require a $50,000 bankroll to play it safely while it would only pay you about $5.70/hr with a SCORE of 1.71. The risk just isn't worth the reward you would be better off getting a job at McDonalds. The game has excellent pen and is a great game for wonging. I suggest you get yourself a copy of CVCX its less than half of one of your max bets and you can answer your own questions and figure out a playable game for yourself with much less risk.
nottooshabby
Well-Known Member
haxxilla,
Do yourself a favor and do not play at negative counts. At all. Especially in an 8D game. You'll thank yourself later. If your game is NMS entry, then you can always Wong-out. For a 6D game, the Red-7 counts to leave the table are at most -18 after 1 deck, -14 after 2, and -11 after 3 decks. These checkpoints correspond to a TC of -1.6 (with credit to Mr. Renzey).
Do yourself a favor and do not play at negative counts. At all. Especially in an 8D game. You'll thank yourself later. If your game is NMS entry, then you can always Wong-out. For a 6D game, the Red-7 counts to leave the table are at most -18 after 1 deck, -14 after 2, and -11 after 3 decks. These checkpoints correspond to a TC of -1.6 (with credit to Mr. Renzey).
I don't get it - why would short-term swings be any wilder than longer-term swings?
Well, that's fine I guess.
Would you say the same thing about thinking maybe most also have little idea of how many rounds they have played?
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
Dollars in the Maelstrom
Short term
long term
it does not matter
our dollars are in the maelstrom
until we are dust in the wind:joker::whip:
Short term
long term
it does not matter
our dollars are in the maelstrom
until we are dust in the wind:joker::whip:
Sonny
Well-Known Member
The short-term swings could be bigger in terms of percentages, but the long-term swings might be larger in terms of actual dollars. The results will start to regress in the long-term even though the absolute difference could be getting larger.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=67906&postcount=2
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=111344&postcount=15
The short-term swings will not necessarily be any wilder than the long-term swings depending on how you look at it. That being said, I like Blackjack Avenger's response as well.
-Sonny-
Thanks Sonny.
I wish I could get out of my "1 SD is 1 SD" mode no matter how long one plays.
Try as I might, I just can't get into the absolute$ aspect of it.
Get 8 heads in the first 10 flips. Less than a 1 SD loss. ( I think lol).
Maintain that 100000 flips later - still within 1 SD of expectations.
What's the difference?
There's no "wild" swings - results are within EV +-1 SD of the time, the same percentage of times, no matter how many flips you make.
Never got calling that "%relationship to $bankroll" as some kind of "wild" swing.
Sure, maybe more absolute dollar risk with more trials, but so what?
To me, that's just about risk to roll, not some kind of wild "swing" thing.
If you have a small roll, 1 SD could be more than 100% of roll. With a large roll, 1 SD could be next to nothing compared to total roll.
Am I nuts? :grin: