S17 vs. H17 at High True Counts

[Southpaw]

I guess it is possible to have a higher WR verses another game with a lower HE depending on the rules.

Especially, when the number of decks is low.

SP

 

[psyduck]

On the subject of how various rule variations affect BS players vs. card counters, I got to thinking about some others. Obviously any that add options benefits everyone more or less (and the opposite for taking away options). Here's what I think I found (correct me if I'm wrong):

Affects counters more:

Reduced BJ payout - since one of the main reasons counters keep track of 10s and Aces is to know when a BJ is more likely, shortchanging the payout hurts everyone obviously but hurts counters even more.

Surrender - since the EV when the dealer is showing a 10 (and to some extent an 8 or 9) goes down as the count goes up, surrender helps counters more for this reason (since it's EV is fixed at -0.5). Early surrender would be a counter's dream since the chance of dealer BJ goes up with the count.

ENHC - for the same reason mentioned in the last sentence above.

Restricted double down - since doubling down generally becomes more profitable as the count goes up (due to better chances of catching a 10 or Ace), allowing DD on 9-11 or 10-11 only hurts counters more.

Double After Split - same reason as when double down is restricted to certain totals.

Restricted resplitting - since being able to split multiple times generally makes splitting more profitable, this hurts more at high counts when the dealer is weak. Being able to resplit Aces is especially helpful, since both Aces and 10-point cards (making 21s after splitting Aces) are more prevalent at high counts.

Affects BS players more:

Dealer hit/stand on soft 17 - as described above.

Drawing to split Aces - since being able to take additional cards after splitting Aces is more helpful when low ones are plentiful, this benefits BS players more (on the other hand, since pairs of Aces come up more at high counts this might neutralize the effect). However, being able to double down after splitting Aces would benefit counters more for the reasons mentioned earlier for doubling.

Proper double down and split contribute heavily to the advantage. For the 6deck shoe game I play, without double down and split, I will not see advantge until TC4 (hilo).

 

[jack.jackson]

Especially, when the number of decks is low.

SP

Just wondering if you've ran any simulations to ascertain this fact?

 

[jack.jackson]

Proper double down and split contribute heavily to the advantage. For the 6deck shoe game I play, without double down and split, I will not see advantge until TC4 (hilo).

What game are you playing that doesnt give you an advantage til +4? Surely it has to be more than just Ndas.

 

[psyduck]

What game are you playing that doesnt give you an advantage til +4? Surely it has to be more than just Ndas.

Jack,

Sorry for the confusion. I meant to state the importance of double down and split. I should have said "if double down and split were not allowed, the game I play would not show advantage till hilo TC4).

Happy new year and good cards to you!

 

[Southpaw]

Just wondering if you've ran any simulations to ascertain this fact?

Would you take a DD game with 1% disadvantage off the top or an 8-deck shoe with .5% disadvantage off the top (assuming you could bet the same way in either game)?

Even though the DD game faces a higher off the top disadvantage, it is probably still the better game because there will be more advantageous betting situations, due to the greater count fluctuation. The 8-deck shoe game is going to hold very tightly to near -.5% for a long time, likely until a few decks have been dealt out.

Hope this helps,

SP

 

[moo321]

Would you take a DD game with 1% disadvantage off the top or an 8-deck shoe with .5% disadvantage off the top (assuming you could bet the same way in either game)?

Even though the DD game faces a higher off the top disadvantage, it is probably still the better game because there will be more advantageous betting situations, due to the greater count fluctuation. The 8-deck shoe game is going to hold very tightly to near -.5% for a long time, likely until a few decks have been dealt out.

Hope this helps,

SP

Depends. How much can I spread at each without getting heat? Do I have the bankroll to spread what I want on the 8 decker? What are the mins?

 

[Southpaw]

Depends. How much can I spread at each without getting heat? Do I have the bankroll to spread what I want on the 8 decker? What are the mins?

Moo,

This was not really a question, but rather an example to demonstrate something I said earlier in the thread.

Jack Jackson had mentioned that it is possible for a game with a higher house edge off the top to provide a higher win rate for a counter than a game that has a lower house edge off the top. I agreed, saying that this can absolutely be the case if the game with the higher house edge off the top uses less decks.

The example I provided was an arbitrary example to demonstrate this and I said that you could spread the same way in either game. The point is that that although the game with lower decks may have a higher house edge off the top, it still may be superior because of the greater TC fluctuations that will be seen.

Hope that this clarifies everything,

SP

 

[jack.jackson]

Moo,

This was not really a question, but rather an example to demonstrate something I said earlier in the thread.

Jack Jackson had mentioned that it is possible for a game with a higher house edge off the top to provide a higher win rate for a counter than a game that has a lower house edge off the top. I agreed, saying that this can absolutely be the case if the game with the higher house edge off the top uses less decks.

The example I provided was an arbitrary example to demonstrate this and I said that you could spread the same way in either game. The point is that that although the game with lower decks may have a higher house edge off the top, it still may be superior because of the greater TC fluctuations that will be seen.

Hope that this clarifies everything,

SP

Hi South Paw.

Im aware of the fact you presented here. But what im curious about, is say that everything is equal EXCEPT for the rules in play. My question is, is it posssible to have a higher WR vs a different game with a lower HE depending on the rules in question?

 

[Southpaw]

Hi South Paw.

Im aware of the fact you presented here. But what im curious about, is say that everything is equal EXCEPT for the rules in play. My question is, is it posssible to have a higher WR vs a different game with a lower HE depending on the rules in question?

I'd imagine so, though the relevance may be small.

If you had a certain combination of rules including some like LS or H17 that either diminish or increase in value as the TC gets higher, which is when we place our biggest bets, then I reason that it may be possible.

For example game 1 has a higher house edge on average, but its rules are such that the house edge falls off quickly as the TC rises, but game 2 has a lower house edge, but that its rules are such that the house edge remains more constant as the TC rises.

Under the right circumstances, game 1 may have a higher win rate.

SP