Short deck or bad luck?

[Zach Black]

This week I played at tribal joint in a off the beaten path location. It was a 6D shoe with 1.25 cut off. This was my first time at this place.

My first two shoes went to a hi lo RC of 15 at 3 decks. The RC ended at 13 on the first shoe and 15 on the 2nd.

I didn't win a single big bet. I didn't get one 20. The dealer kept getting 3 and 4 card 21.
Was this bad luck or short deck? I left after the 2nd shoe thinking this game is rigged.

What is the probability of having a TC of 10 or higher at the cut card two shoes in a row?

 

[tthree]

Are you sure you weren't at one of those spanish speaking tables. Every time i ask them why they get so many multicard 21 the spanish lady says, "You know, noten". I might not know much but why should she belittle me with that spanish accent telling me I know nothing. Every shoe seemed to end with an RC around +20. They gave me a lot of mispays though so I wasn't complaining about the spanish dealer. I even got paid three times my wager on one mispay.

 

[Sucker]

What is the probability of having a TC of 10 or higher at the cut card two shoes in a row?

Probably something like 1 in 30. About once or twice a day.

But that's not the point - I CAN tell you the probability that two shoes is enough to enable you to draw ANY conclusions at ALL, one way or another: ZERO.

 

[HockeXpert]

Probably something like 1 in 30. About once or twice a day.

But that's not the point - I CAN tell you the probability that two shoes is enough to enable you to draw ANY conclusions at ALL, one way or another: ZERO.

Zach Black:

Sucker omitted the word "NOT" in his post above. Two shoes is NOT enough to draw any conclusions. Two shoes in a row like that can draw suspicion but is not damning evidence.

 

[21gunsalute]

Two shoes isn't going to tell you anything. I've seen several shoes like that that aroused my suspicions and then suddenly you get one that goes way off into negative territory.

 

[The Chaperone]

I disagree about two shoes not being enough. It definitely could be enough if both shoes were say HiLo RC +40 half way through and +50 when the cut card came out.

I would agree however that Zach's provided example is not enough to come to any conclusion. Probably just a bad run.

 

[NightStalker]

Asm

Two shoes-back to back

Use different decks..

 

[ningtong88]

Same thing happened to me twice over the last 30 shoes or so I played at an Indian joint, I thought I was in bad luck until the last shoe I played where this dealer cut off only < 1D off from the 6D (this was a subsititue dealer), and right before the last hand, the RC was +24 using hi-lo (I lost all 5 out the last 6 hands or so, not because I busted, but dealer got 20's or 21's), I got a 9 and dealer had a 5 showing, I doubled on that got a 6, dealer then got a 4 cards 21. If I recall correctly, almost all the 30 shoes I played over there ended up with + counts. I am never going back to that place again, that's for sure! That explained why I only had one winning session from this place. Oh, and their 2D game is even worse, I don't think they cheat on those, but the rules suck, cutting off over half, only allow to double down on 9,10,& 11, split only once is allowed..., just terrible, and don't even show the burn card. I rather go play at this other place where they cut 2D off the 6D.

 

[Zach Black]

Thanks all for the feedback. I think I'll back count to the end of a few shoes before jumping in again at this joint if I go again.

For tthree, I am begining to like the game without 10's, and the spanish lady calls me "crazy" hiting my 12 against her 16.

Zach