AnIrishmannot2brite
Well-Known Member
It took me a couple years of fooling around with counting and playing until it dawned on me that we don't always see enough emphasis on table choice and general strategy.
Specifically: Sure we hear about Wonging in or out but far less about
1. The amount of players at a table cutting into the favorable percentages. It is far more useful for me to walk into a casino and scope out how full the tables are at a specific time of day and the week. Then make a note of what playing conditions are there. And maybe study when the pit crew changes shifts etc. Every real business does this. It scope out the "market".
Was just a couple weeks back when on St. Paddy's Day (I wasn't even wearing green!) that I found myself eyeing a six deck table with terrible penetration. I think it was between 60 and 66%. I forget what Arnold Snyder says is the disadvantage both from the lousy pentration, six decks and full table of players. However I just knew it had to be a waste of my time. Still, since I'd travelled so far I counted down two shoes. Each of which had little flux both negative or positive. Only jumped in with bets twice and lost each time...
OK so while getting bored and feeling wierd and worried about being labeled a casino "buzzard" I looked over at the "awful" 6:5 single table "next door". It was empty. The table never had filled much during my time next door. Despite all caution I decided to sit in and low bet a few shuffles.
Now while I forget the exact amount of percentage I give away to the house on a 6:5 (I think it's slightly over 1%) I figured the odds just had to be better than the weak six shoe deck next door. And besides back counting is not an enjoyable technique for me.
Well within ten minutes the running count soared to plus eight. So high I didn't even both converting to true count. I just knew it was good and laid my high bet down on the table. OK so I split nines twice (no DAS unfortunately). Later the count went up again but with just one other player. I split aces and got two twenty ones. Then the table filled so i split.
Now I'm not going to seek those 6:5 games intentionally. This was merely a test of a casino playing condition in an otherwise wasted trip had things not turned out well. I suppose if EVERY single deck game in the world were to eventually go to 6:5 I may still play the game but then again maybe not. hard to say. I only illustrate the matter to show what a waste some six deck shoes are. regardless of how well and patient I backcount.
Since that time I found another casino but with a good two deck game (with 3:2) and decent pentration. It opens in the afternoon and I can get at least an hour of unmolested heads up play. I spread a little less wide like 1-8. Not like in in the 6:5 where I'd been going almost 1 - 20!
The heads up play worked beautifully! After about a half hour and right before they changed dealers I found myself with a dealer who went waaayyy past the half deck point and with an astronomical high count (metaphorically speaking). At this point I was getting tired and had to force myself to stay in the two deck game. I felt a rush of electricity and the payouts just kept coming. I kept spliting and doubling for at least six hands in a row and my chip pile grew like a long train running.
So tired was I that the huge earnings of that deck were less exhilarating due to my fatigue.
And that's another concept i don't see here too often:
2. The effect of stress and fatigue on the player.
About the only time I get losing sessions is when I'm tired AND stressed. Feeling impatient I may fall off my game plan and start making higher bets below a certain threshold of advantage. At that point I'm forcing things to happen instead of patiently. I may have a slight true edge but not quite the advantage I'd have had I been full of energy and clear headed.
OK so the above stuff may not be as exciting as learning some special "Hi Opt" or level 2 or 3 counting. But the edge I get from heads up play and scoping out a casino is far superior to any kind of counting technique out there.
And I truly wished someone had told me the above stuff about three years ago. Heck if the uncrowded table conditions prevail long enough in a casino I can still win with mildly sloppy counting!
Specifically: Sure we hear about Wonging in or out but far less about
1. The amount of players at a table cutting into the favorable percentages. It is far more useful for me to walk into a casino and scope out how full the tables are at a specific time of day and the week. Then make a note of what playing conditions are there. And maybe study when the pit crew changes shifts etc. Every real business does this. It scope out the "market".
Was just a couple weeks back when on St. Paddy's Day (I wasn't even wearing green!) that I found myself eyeing a six deck table with terrible penetration. I think it was between 60 and 66%. I forget what Arnold Snyder says is the disadvantage both from the lousy pentration, six decks and full table of players. However I just knew it had to be a waste of my time. Still, since I'd travelled so far I counted down two shoes. Each of which had little flux both negative or positive. Only jumped in with bets twice and lost each time...
OK so while getting bored and feeling wierd and worried about being labeled a casino "buzzard" I looked over at the "awful" 6:5 single table "next door". It was empty. The table never had filled much during my time next door. Despite all caution I decided to sit in and low bet a few shuffles.
Now while I forget the exact amount of percentage I give away to the house on a 6:5 (I think it's slightly over 1%) I figured the odds just had to be better than the weak six shoe deck next door. And besides back counting is not an enjoyable technique for me.
Well within ten minutes the running count soared to plus eight. So high I didn't even both converting to true count. I just knew it was good and laid my high bet down on the table. OK so I split nines twice (no DAS unfortunately). Later the count went up again but with just one other player. I split aces and got two twenty ones. Then the table filled so i split.
Now I'm not going to seek those 6:5 games intentionally. This was merely a test of a casino playing condition in an otherwise wasted trip had things not turned out well. I suppose if EVERY single deck game in the world were to eventually go to 6:5 I may still play the game but then again maybe not. hard to say. I only illustrate the matter to show what a waste some six deck shoes are. regardless of how well and patient I backcount.
Since that time I found another casino but with a good two deck game (with 3:2) and decent pentration. It opens in the afternoon and I can get at least an hour of unmolested heads up play. I spread a little less wide like 1-8. Not like in in the 6:5 where I'd been going almost 1 - 20!
The heads up play worked beautifully! After about a half hour and right before they changed dealers I found myself with a dealer who went waaayyy past the half deck point and with an astronomical high count (metaphorically speaking). At this point I was getting tired and had to force myself to stay in the two deck game. I felt a rush of electricity and the payouts just kept coming. I kept spliting and doubling for at least six hands in a row and my chip pile grew like a long train running.
So tired was I that the huge earnings of that deck were less exhilarating due to my fatigue.
And that's another concept i don't see here too often:
2. The effect of stress and fatigue on the player.
About the only time I get losing sessions is when I'm tired AND stressed. Feeling impatient I may fall off my game plan and start making higher bets below a certain threshold of advantage. At that point I'm forcing things to happen instead of patiently. I may have a slight true edge but not quite the advantage I'd have had I been full of energy and clear headed.
OK so the above stuff may not be as exciting as learning some special "Hi Opt" or level 2 or 3 counting. But the edge I get from heads up play and scoping out a casino is far superior to any kind of counting technique out there.
And I truly wished someone had told me the above stuff about three years ago. Heck if the uncrowded table conditions prevail long enough in a casino I can still win with mildly sloppy counting!
