I've been on a real bad run lately. 6 of the last 7 outings have produced bad outcomes, and the lone non losing effort was a small win that I pulled out after trailing most of that day. The first day or two, I just wrote it off as negative variance. As time has gone on, I've become more paranoid. When you start to view the dealer as a magical monster, capable of pulling out win after win, when circumstances say they shouldn't, it starts to affect your thinking. For me, it made me gun shy to the point of restricting my bet spreads. While I know that is a mistake, I also know that has saved me quite a bit of money during this period (which dates back to early April). And I know we are not supposed to let previous results affect our betting, but I'm human. When the dealer seemingly is always starting out with a face card, it's hard to have too much confidence. Sure, they will bust every know and then, but when they aren't, it's 20 or 21 every time.
So I intended to play what I thought was the only decent card club in the area (actually have surrender and no fee) but I walk in, and the two BJ tables both have gone CSM. There was an Indian casino about 7 miles away. Their rules aren't great, but they have a few tables that are playable, once you get past their CSM tables, and several 6-5 tables. I play a bit and even back counted two tables. I'm not getting buried, but I'm not ahead at this point. I start playing a table with 3 ploppies. It's a $10 minimum table. The count gradually rises but I struggle to put up more than $40 per hand. My negative thoughts and expectations are validated, as the dealer continues to find ways not to bust. I get up to about three $50 bets. I win one and lose two. Finally in one round, a number of small cards are just flying out. The RC is now +11 with about 2 decks remaining. I haven't yet bet $100 in a hand but now is the time. The ploppies at the table have now been buried and have left. But I'm pissed as well. Screw the casino; I have $200 in chips left and I push out $150. The situation dictates it, and to be quite honest, it was a bit of a tilt. I get a 2 and 8 while the dealer has a 3. I only have $50 in chips so I take out a $100 bill and am able to make the double. This garbage variance is finally going to turn. So the double down card? I get a 3. I just shake my head in disgust. Then I see the dealer turns over an 8 and I can just feel the anger within me. Her final card is a king (what else?) for a fitting result.
I know its a great count and probably could've played a few more rounds but I was too angry. Anger does not mix with gambling. What I don't understand is playing the Qfit software, I never see the crazy bias that I've seen in the casino. Sure sometimes the dealer gets good cards, sometimes I do and sometimes there's no advantage in the software. It seems normal. I believe in the math but nowhere in life does it state everything is even and fair. The analytics community has been saying the New England Patriots, with a great turnover margin nearly every year for the past 20 years, have been lucky. How has that turned out for them? That same community is saying Justin Verlander is the luckiest pitcher in MLB as 90% of his baserunners have not scored. Are they aware Verlander is a lock for the Hall of Fame?
I don't know how the veterans deal with the variance. I'm guessing many of them started out with positive variance to help build their bankroll, they've gotten better over time, and as such have been able to weather the negative variance. Right now it feels like variance is 95% of the game.
I guess I should feel good that I broke thru with a new high bet amount, even though it went down in flames. The money isn't a giant issue but I hate losing. I've lost some tough photo finishes in horse racing and been victimized by some unwarranted disqualifications, but in the long run, I really felt that stuff came close to evening out. So far, blackjack variance has not remotely come close to evening out. And some of this is my fault for playing two places that only have 8 deck shoes. With around 8 playing options within 2 hours, I'm down to 3 that I will consider playing. Maybe a few weeks off and more practice time will turn things around. I'm not going back until my mind is not in a negative frame of mind.
So I intended to play what I thought was the only decent card club in the area (actually have surrender and no fee) but I walk in, and the two BJ tables both have gone CSM. There was an Indian casino about 7 miles away. Their rules aren't great, but they have a few tables that are playable, once you get past their CSM tables, and several 6-5 tables. I play a bit and even back counted two tables. I'm not getting buried, but I'm not ahead at this point. I start playing a table with 3 ploppies. It's a $10 minimum table. The count gradually rises but I struggle to put up more than $40 per hand. My negative thoughts and expectations are validated, as the dealer continues to find ways not to bust. I get up to about three $50 bets. I win one and lose two. Finally in one round, a number of small cards are just flying out. The RC is now +11 with about 2 decks remaining. I haven't yet bet $100 in a hand but now is the time. The ploppies at the table have now been buried and have left. But I'm pissed as well. Screw the casino; I have $200 in chips left and I push out $150. The situation dictates it, and to be quite honest, it was a bit of a tilt. I get a 2 and 8 while the dealer has a 3. I only have $50 in chips so I take out a $100 bill and am able to make the double. This garbage variance is finally going to turn. So the double down card? I get a 3. I just shake my head in disgust. Then I see the dealer turns over an 8 and I can just feel the anger within me. Her final card is a king (what else?) for a fitting result.
I know its a great count and probably could've played a few more rounds but I was too angry. Anger does not mix with gambling. What I don't understand is playing the Qfit software, I never see the crazy bias that I've seen in the casino. Sure sometimes the dealer gets good cards, sometimes I do and sometimes there's no advantage in the software. It seems normal. I believe in the math but nowhere in life does it state everything is even and fair. The analytics community has been saying the New England Patriots, with a great turnover margin nearly every year for the past 20 years, have been lucky. How has that turned out for them? That same community is saying Justin Verlander is the luckiest pitcher in MLB as 90% of his baserunners have not scored. Are they aware Verlander is a lock for the Hall of Fame?
I don't know how the veterans deal with the variance. I'm guessing many of them started out with positive variance to help build their bankroll, they've gotten better over time, and as such have been able to weather the negative variance. Right now it feels like variance is 95% of the game.
I guess I should feel good that I broke thru with a new high bet amount, even though it went down in flames. The money isn't a giant issue but I hate losing. I've lost some tough photo finishes in horse racing and been victimized by some unwarranted disqualifications, but in the long run, I really felt that stuff came close to evening out. So far, blackjack variance has not remotely come close to evening out. And some of this is my fault for playing two places that only have 8 deck shoes. With around 8 playing options within 2 hours, I'm down to 3 that I will consider playing. Maybe a few weeks off and more practice time will turn things around. I'm not going back until my mind is not in a negative frame of mind.