The Lose Less Progression

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#23
Some in the beggining

sagefr0g said:
anyone understand what this guy is saying. and if you do is he right? :confused:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/mandk.htm (Archive copy)
In his talk of a martingale player, he uses an example of someone with unlimited funds and no mention of a table limit and comes up with the result that the guy will eventually win his $1 but has an expected value of 0.

This is statistical textbook stuff but in practical application becomes misleading because we all have fund limits and the casinos all have table limits.

After that, I did not want to kill the mental energy needed for something probably beyond me and not really useable in a casino anyway.

ihate17
 

k_c

Well-Known Member
#24
ihate17 said:
In his talk of a martingale player, he uses an example of someone with unlimited funds and no mention of a table limit and comes up with the result that the guy will eventually win his $1 but has an expected value of 0.

This is statistical textbook stuff but in practical application becomes misleading because we all have fund limits and the casinos all have table limits.

After that, I did not want to kill the mental energy needed for something probably beyond me and not really useable in a casino anyway.

ihate17
I think that the correct math theory is that a martingale player with an infinite bankroll will lose an infinite amount (go broke) given an infinite amount of time in a negative expectation game!
 
#25
Tarzan said:

I took a whopping 22 losses in a row today, which I think is my lifetime record! I was stunned.
Those darn Indian Casino's
:yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes:
 

GeorgeD

Well-Known Member
#27
Kasi said:
You're right it just means that the chances of it happening the next 3 times you play are really really really small lol.



The other part, to me anyway, is to show how long such voodoo systems may last before failing.

Of course any betting system will not reduce the HA, but I can prove to you such systems will increase the chance of achieving a $goal given a time unit and $roll compared to a BS flat-bettor with same $roll and same amount of time to achieve that goal before busting. Or variations of that.

They will win more often but at the cost of higher risk of losing all.

Like take a 1-16 play-all guy in 8D with $10K and a $5unit. Maybe he wins $8 every 100 hnads. Maybe his risk is 5% or less. Take a voodoo guy with $10K betting $800/hand and he will probably win $800 in less than an hour 90% of the time. The other 10% of the time he won't have $10K anymore. If he does and is willing to take the risk, he'll have $800 in an hour or less 90% of the time. In an hour he'll have the EV of this card-counter in 100 hours 90% of the time.

Pick your poison. Take your chances. Goals, rolls, time and risk. Whatever.

One only has to make up a min bet every 2-3 hours to break even anyway.

Once one realizes that one could make up 160 units 90% of the time in just1/160th of the time compared to a card-counter and, if achieved, realizes one is good to play min for the next 1000 hours if content to not lose, well, wherever you go, that's where you are.

With alot of leeway in between those extremes. It's not like you have to make it all up in an hour lol.

I know I'm the odd man out here, sometimes giving my views of card-counting without ever making a dime I ever chose to record anyway from it, but, you know, after a few hundred thousand hands in constant -EV, voodoo - the chance of winning x units in the next whatever hands with whatever roll - was all I ever had.

All I know is my voodoo return exceded a flat-bet return a few hundred thousand hands later. By thousands and thousands of flat-units. Add a few bonuses and life has been good.

Voodoo has its place - other than existing soley for being summarily dismissed by card-counters. If you win, you're "lucky" and will inevitably lose. If you "lose", well, what did you expect anyway? All this, while card-counters "steam", often vary their bets in crazy ways in an effort to get "the most money out I possibly can" just because the count is better than normal or hit TC+10 or something, basically often can't even answer themselves the questions of how lucky they are to be ahead or behind by so much after so long, and often ask strangers how should I bet my money in the first place now that I know how to add and subtract 1 when looking at a card?

C'mon, who is really more "voodoo"?
If in playing $800 per hand you win $800 90% of the time, over 100 houurs you have won $72,000. Nice,

If you lose $10,000 10% of that 100 hours, you have lost $100,000.

In that 100 hours of play you have lost $28,000

If as in Tarzan's post you lose the first 22 hands of any session, you lose
$17,600. If your bankroll is $10,000 you could easily be busted in 1/2 hour.

There is a place for voodoo but know what you are getting yourself into. If it's worth that kind of risk for entertainment and comp value, go for it. It still sounds like compulsive gambler thinking.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#28
k_c said:
I think that the correct math theory is that a martingale player with an infinite bankroll will lose an infinite amount (go broke) given an infinite amount of time in a negative expectation game!
And here I always thought the correct theory is he'd always win his 1 unit and have an infinite bankroll +1 :grin:
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#29
GeorgeD said:
If in playing $800 per hand you win $800 90% of the time, over 100 houurs you have won $72,000. Nice,

If you lose $10,000 10% of that 100 hours, you have lost $100,000.

In that 100 hours of play you have lost $28,000

If as in Tarzan's post you lose the first 22 hands of any session, you lose
$17,600. If your bankroll is $10,000 you could easily be busted in 1/2 hour.

There is a place for voodoo but know what you are getting yourself into. If it's worth that kind of risk for entertainment and comp value, go for it. It still sounds like compulsive gambler thinking.
I probably wasn't as clear as I could have been.

I just meant the voodoo guy with an overall goal of breaking even for as long as possible would here have a goal of winning the 1 unit or losing it all. If he wins the 1 unit ($800), he'd go back to the $5 unit and has achieved his goal of extending play by 32000 rounds before he'd be losing any money.

Maybe it's not even voodoo - just a fact of BJ (I think) that a 12 unit roll will turn into 13 units about 90% of the time. Maybe it's just a slow progression lol.

Maybe he does it with $25 and a $300 roll lol. If he wins the 1 unit he's good to go for another 1000 rounds at $5 and still be even. Heck the 10% of the time he loses the $300, bet $300 with a $3600 roll. I guess 1 in 100 you'd lose twice in a row? Just a simple way by way of example, and maybe aggressive like you say, of varying bet size to extend play while breaking even kind of thing if that's your goal but at a higher risk. For a guy playing for a weekend or a week maybe an extra 1000 rounds is enough to have fun and break even.

I don't know how likely it would be to last how long with a so many unit roll doing this. So don't even ask :)
 
#30
Tried my «Lose Less Progression» over the weekend. After losing 8 hands in a row :eek: I reluctantly dished out 90$ on the following hand (90$ on one hand at a 10$ table does attract attention). Anyway, the dealer gives me a 10...then an Ace (!!!BLACKJACK!!!). Moreover, yes, the dealer didn't have a natural. Ended up losing 50$ after 2 hours of play. :confused:
 

paddywhack

Well-Known Member
#31
picasso said:
Tried my «Lose Less Progression» over the weekend. After losing 8 hands in a row :eek: I reluctantly dished out 90$ on the following hand (90$ on one hand at a 10$ table does attract attention). Anyway, the dealer gives me a 10...then an Ace (!!!BLACKJACK!!!). Moreover, yes, the dealer didn't have a natural. Ended up losing 50$ after 2 hours of play. :confused:
Crazy place you play man. $90 doesn't do anything at any $10 table I've seen. Not even at a $5 table. Might catch some interest at a $3 table but...
 
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