The perfect shoe
- Thread starter kewljason
- Start date
Freightman said:
"Sims aside, I am not a math geek. But I have to assume that just playing 30 some hands in a row, with out experiencing a loss (counting split hand, win, loss as tie) is astronomical in itself. I don't know. Math guys? "
CV Data suggests a 20+ win streak occurs approx 6.9 million to 1 - If I have read this right. Don't believe you will have a similar win streak anytime soon
CV Data suggests a 20+ win streak occurs approx 6.9 million to 1 - If I have read this right. Don't believe you will have a similar win streak anytime soon
All I can say is . . .
.
kewljason said:
I have let a few days pass before posting about this event for obvious reasons. I actually have debated whether I should post about it at all, as I know doing so has absolutely no positive value for me and could have negative consequences, however to be honest, I am just bursting to share this event. I have shared it with a few non blackjack playing friends and while I know they are extremely happy for me, they fail to really appreciate the enormity of the event. So I post, minus names, places and time details.
It was the second shoe of the day for me. A 6-deck game with really decent penetration. The first shoe, also at this table was uneventful as the count hovered around zero. Didn't go low enough to exit, didn't go high enough to raise my bet. Myself and one other player both playing a single spot were joined in the second round by another player wagering 2 hands. The small cards began to come out. The count grew. I began to increase my wagers up my betting ramp. Lost some hands, won some hands. With all the small cards appearing, I was actually holding my own. The count reaches my max wager point. About this time the player wagering 2 hands, and losing most, exits. Thanks! Small cards are still coming out. But, I am placing my max bet and winning. One hand I drew a 5 card 20. A couple other hands, my 4 card hand beat the dealers 4 card hand. The gent I had played the previous shoe with has had enough and exits, leaving only myself. The true count hits double digits. I decide to increase my max bet by 50%, which I know sounds kind of oxymoron-ish. My max bet is actually determined by a betting level that I wish to stay under, to avoid heat, rather than by bankroll limitations, as my bankroll can actually support a bigger max bet, so this is actually a move I have built into my plan for certain extreme situation and this most definitely qualifies. Probably most of you would have increased even more, but I stick to my game plan. Anyway, by the end of the shoe I have played at least 30, maybe 35 hands at max bets, with 20-25 of them being this 'super max bet'. I pushed two hands of 20, one which seemed like a win, (more on that in a minute) and had one split that ended up as a push with one win, one loss. Won every other hands, including a number of doubledowns. Ironically, No blackjacks. By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play. I don't see how I will ever come close to this feat again. I may someday play at a higher level with much greater max bets, than I do now, which could allow me to make more than this on a single very good shoe, but I don't believe I will ever play 30 some hands at max bet and not lose a single hand.
Now, how can a push with max bet seem like a win? Let me tell you. I had a 10 vs dealer 10 and with a double digit TC the play was to double. By this time a gentleman from the pit had taken a mild interest in the game and I decided not to push the envelope by doubling as called for. I hit, drew a 2, hit a second time and drew an 8 to push the dealers 20. Had I doubled, I have a 12 and lose my double. The push seemed like a win to me.
One final though: Some of you may remember earlier this year, I spoke of another 'monster shoe' in which I won about half of the amount won here. At that time, that was my largest win in a session, and I was unable to compose myself and get my emotions together enough to continue play that day. I vowed to do better in the future. Well, I didn't. :sad: My adrenaline was pumping and my heart pounding, and again, I thought it best just to call it a day. Maybe if the blackjack gods, work with me and give me a few more of these opportunities, I will finally get the hang of it.
The other kind of embarrassing thing is that despite everything I have learned and know to be true, I still had some ploppy thoughts creep into my mind about how I am probably due to give some back now. Shows I still have a lot to work on.
It was the second shoe of the day for me. A 6-deck game with really decent penetration. The first shoe, also at this table was uneventful as the count hovered around zero. Didn't go low enough to exit, didn't go high enough to raise my bet. Myself and one other player both playing a single spot were joined in the second round by another player wagering 2 hands. The small cards began to come out. The count grew. I began to increase my wagers up my betting ramp. Lost some hands, won some hands. With all the small cards appearing, I was actually holding my own. The count reaches my max wager point. About this time the player wagering 2 hands, and losing most, exits. Thanks!
Small cards are still coming out. But, I am placing my max bet and winning. One hand I drew a 5 card 20. A couple other hands, my 4 card hand beat the dealers 4 card hand. The gent I had played the previous shoe with has had enough and exits, leaving only myself. The true count hits double digits. I decide to increase my max bet by 50%, which I know sounds kind of oxymoron-ish. My max bet is actually determined by a betting level that I wish to stay under, to avoid heat, rather than by bankroll limitations, as my bankroll can actually support a bigger max bet, so this is actually a move I have built into my plan for certain extreme situation and this most definitely qualifies. Probably most of you would have increased even more, but I stick to my game plan. Anyway, by the end of the shoe I have played at least 30, maybe 35 hands at max bets, with 20-25 of them being this 'super max bet'. I pushed two hands of 20, one which seemed like a win, (more on that in a minute) and had one split that ended up as a push with one win, one loss. Won every other hands, including a number of doubledowns. Ironically, No blackjacks. By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play. I don't see how I will ever come close to this feat again. I may someday play at a higher level with much greater max bets, than I do now, which could allow me to make more than this on a single very good shoe, but I don't believe I will ever play 30 some hands at max bet and not lose a single hand. Now, how can a push with max bet seem like a win? Let me tell you. I had a 10 vs dealer 10 and with a double digit TC the play was to double. By this time a gentleman from the pit had taken a mild interest in the game and I decided not to push the envelope by doubling as called for. I hit, drew a 2, hit a second time and drew an 8 to push the dealers 20. Had I doubled, I have a 12 and lose my double. The push seemed like a win to me.
One final though: Some of you may remember earlier this year, I spoke of another 'monster shoe' in which I won about half of the amount won here. At that time, that was my largest win in a session, and I was unable to compose myself and get my emotions together enough to continue play that day. I vowed to do better in the future. Well, I didn't. :sad: My adrenaline was pumping and my heart pounding, and again, I thought it best just to call it a day. Maybe if the blackjack gods, work with me and give me a few more of these opportunities, I will finally get the hang of it.
The other kind of embarrassing thing is that despite everything I have learned and know to be true, I still had some ploppy thoughts creep into my mind about how I am probably due to give some back now. Shows I still have a lot to work on.
Attachments
The sacred flow in retrospect. Hmmm!
I like KJ's idea of having a preconceived game plan. That way, there is no on-the-spot decision-making that might ...er... uh... disturb the sacred flow. But my perspective is that the Almighty knew exactly where you would be and what you would do, so if he wanted to bestow a perfect shoe on you, it's no problemo. It's comforting to be a believer. Even more so when you slap down your last max bet in a +10 count! :cry:
I like KJ's idea of having a preconceived game plan. That way, there is no on-the-spot decision-making that might ...er... uh... disturb the sacred flow. But my perspective is that the Almighty knew exactly where you would be and what you would do, so if he wanted to bestow a perfect shoe on you, it's no problemo. It's comforting to be a believer.
Even more so when you slap down your last max bet in a +10 count! :cry:
kewljason said:
In my 7+ years I haven't yet played a million hands, but I am up around 500 thousand. So I guess it's not that extraordinary of an event. Was bound to happen. :laugh:
I am just kidding. I said in my original post that I don't think I will ever experience anything close to this again, no matter how long I play. maybe I am wrong though.
I am just kidding. I said in my original post that I don't think I will ever experience anything close to this again, no matter how long I play. maybe I am wrong though.
By the way (and this is a topic I don't think anyone has gone near, but forgive me if I missed it), not to expose a potential skeleton in the closet, so to speak, but ... did you tip? :laugh:
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kewljason said:
By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play.
This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play.
Congratulations! You rock!
Thanx Matt. Might just have been a wee bit north of EV. :laugh:
It's funny, I really look at things similar to what Friendo, just described. At the end of a week, I measure my EV, based on time and games played. Whether I have won or loss is totally irrelivent. That's just fluctuation that will work itself out. I get mad at myself when I have been lazy and haven't put in the time for the EV that I wanted. The only time my thinking strays away from this EV based thought process is during times of an extreme win or loss or times of prolonged wining or losing. I guess that's to be expected, but another thing I need to work on. At the end of that week, when I really looked at things long-term, that was not a very good week, EV-wise, because of lack of play for a couple days. :sad:
It's funny, I really look at things similar to what Friendo, just described. At the end of a week, I measure my EV, based on time and games played. Whether I have won or loss is totally irrelivent. That's just fluctuation that will work itself out. I get mad at myself when I have been lazy and haven't put in the time for the EV that I wanted. The only time my thinking strays away from this EV based thought process is during times of an extreme win or loss or times of prolonged wining or losing. I guess that's to be expected, but another thing I need to work on. At the end of that week, when I really looked at things long-term, that was not a very good week, EV-wise, because of lack of play for a couple days. :sad:
KJ, Don't you find it hard to figure out what your exact EV is over the long run since you continually play different joints with different pen and have different opportunities that go into making your income such as MP's, free cash, scavenger plays etc?
It's funny because I thought my 105 unit win was good on my last trip and then whomp there goes Mr. Kewl with 870 units. :laugh:
It's funny because I thought my 105 unit win was good on my last trip and then whomp there goes Mr. Kewl with 870 units. :laugh:
I talked about that aspect a little bit earlier in this thread, Thunder. I basically play 2 games. Double deck and 6 deck. I use a very generic sim with basic rules and average penetration to figure EV for each game. This is basically the minimum conditions I will accept. So when I play games with a little bit better rules or penetration, which is what I really shop for, it's just a bonus. Same goes for MP and free plays and scavenger plays. They are just a bonus. So in a sense I am really slightly low-balling my EV, which is probably why I generally do a little better than expected in the long run.
Now that I read your OP again, that really was the perfect shoe. When the count jumps up early and I bet a little bigger, I secretly hope for a 6,5 vs a dealer 6, even though a blackjack would technically average more that hand. I enjoy the rare occasion when I can win, and be allowed to bet the same or more next hand with an advantage... And do it again :grin: Although the opposite of this I find also happens, where I am dealt a 20 vs a dealer 10 only to see him flip his ace
Of course, nearing the end of the shoe, I wanna start seeing those BJ's pop out... So maybe this shoe was just near perfect, and you still have a chance to beat your personal record
Of course, nearing the end of the shoe, I wanna start seeing those BJ's pop out... So maybe this shoe was just near perfect, and you still have a chance to beat your personal record
Look at it this way: 24 straight blackjacks spreading to max bet of 12 only equals 432 units; spreading to 16, that would be 576 units. 24 straight hands in which a player successfully doubled down or split to two hands would only equal 576 units; spreading to 16, that would be 768 units. Whatever kewljason experienced, it was more or less in the twilight zone and not something anyone else is likely to experience in their lifetime, at least not using conventional betting spreads.
kewljason said:
I have let a few days pass before posting about this event for obvious reasons. I actually have debated whether I should post about it at all, as I know doing so has absolutely no positive value for me and could have negative consequences, however to be honest, I am just bursting to share this event. I have shared it with a few non blackjack playing friends and while I know they are extremely happy for me, they fail to really appreciate the enormity of the event. So I post, minus names, places and time details.
It was the second shoe of the day for me. A 6-deck game with really decent penetration. The first shoe, also at this table was uneventful as the count hovered around zero. Didn't go low enough to exit, didn't go high enough to raise my bet. Myself and one other player both playing a single spot were joined in the second round by another player wagering 2 hands. The small cards began to come out. The count grew. I began to increase my wagers up my betting ramp. Lost some hands, won some hands. With all the small cards appearing, I was actually holding my own. The count reaches my max wager point. About this time the player wagering 2 hands, and losing most, exits. Thanks! Small cards are still coming out. But, I am placing my max bet and winning. One hand I drew a 5 card 20. A couple other hands, my 4 card hand beat the dealers 4 card hand. The gent I had played the previous shoe with has had enough and exits, leaving only myself. The true count hits double digits. I decide to increase my max bet by 50%, which I know sounds kind of oxymoron-ish. My max bet is actually determined by a betting level that I wish to stay under, to avoid heat, rather than by bankroll limitations, as my bankroll can actually support a bigger max bet, so this is actually a move I have built into my plan for certain extreme situation and this most definitely qualifies. Probably most of you would have increased even more, but I stick to my game plan. Anyway, by the end of the shoe I have played at least 30, maybe 35 hands at max bets, with 20-25 of them being this 'super max bet'. I pushed two hands of 20, one which seemed like a win, (more on that in a minute) and had one split that ended up as a push with one win, one loss. Won every other hands, including a number of doubledowns. Ironically, No blackjacks. By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play. I don't see how I will ever come close to this feat again. I may someday play at a higher level with much greater max bets, than I do now, which could allow me to make more than this on a single very good shoe, but I don't believe I will ever play 30 some hands at max bet and not lose a single hand.
Now, how can a push with max bet seem like a win? Let me tell you. I had a 10 vs dealer 10 and with a double digit TC the play was to double. By this time a gentleman from the pit had taken a mild interest in the game and I decided not to push the envelope by doubling as called for. I hit, drew a 2, hit a second time and drew an 8 to push the dealers 20. Had I doubled, I have a 12 and lose my double. The push seemed like a win to me.
One final though: Some of you may remember earlier this year, I spoke of another 'monster shoe' in which I won about half of the amount won here. At that time, that was my largest win in a session, and I was unable to compose myself and get my emotions together enough to continue play that day. I vowed to do better in the future. Well, I didn't. :sad: My adrenaline was pumping and my heart pounding, and again, I thought it best just to call it a day. Maybe if the blackjack gods, work with me and give me a few more of these opportunities, I will finally get the hang of it.
The other kind of embarrassing thing is that despite everything I have learned and know to be true, I still had some ploppy thoughts creep into my mind about how I am probably due to give some back now. Shows I still have a lot to work on.
It was the second shoe of the day for me. A 6-deck game with really decent penetration. The first shoe, also at this table was uneventful as the count hovered around zero. Didn't go low enough to exit, didn't go high enough to raise my bet. Myself and one other player both playing a single spot were joined in the second round by another player wagering 2 hands. The small cards began to come out. The count grew. I began to increase my wagers up my betting ramp. Lost some hands, won some hands. With all the small cards appearing, I was actually holding my own. The count reaches my max wager point. About this time the player wagering 2 hands, and losing most, exits. Thanks!
Small cards are still coming out. But, I am placing my max bet and winning. One hand I drew a 5 card 20. A couple other hands, my 4 card hand beat the dealers 4 card hand. The gent I had played the previous shoe with has had enough and exits, leaving only myself. The true count hits double digits. I decide to increase my max bet by 50%, which I know sounds kind of oxymoron-ish. My max bet is actually determined by a betting level that I wish to stay under, to avoid heat, rather than by bankroll limitations, as my bankroll can actually support a bigger max bet, so this is actually a move I have built into my plan for certain extreme situation and this most definitely qualifies. Probably most of you would have increased even more, but I stick to my game plan. Anyway, by the end of the shoe I have played at least 30, maybe 35 hands at max bets, with 20-25 of them being this 'super max bet'. I pushed two hands of 20, one which seemed like a win, (more on that in a minute) and had one split that ended up as a push with one win, one loss. Won every other hands, including a number of doubledowns. Ironically, No blackjacks. By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play. I don't see how I will ever come close to this feat again. I may someday play at a higher level with much greater max bets, than I do now, which could allow me to make more than this on a single very good shoe, but I don't believe I will ever play 30 some hands at max bet and not lose a single hand. Now, how can a push with max bet seem like a win? Let me tell you. I had a 10 vs dealer 10 and with a double digit TC the play was to double. By this time a gentleman from the pit had taken a mild interest in the game and I decided not to push the envelope by doubling as called for. I hit, drew a 2, hit a second time and drew an 8 to push the dealers 20. Had I doubled, I have a 12 and lose my double. The push seemed like a win to me.
One final though: Some of you may remember earlier this year, I spoke of another 'monster shoe' in which I won about half of the amount won here. At that time, that was my largest win in a session, and I was unable to compose myself and get my emotions together enough to continue play that day. I vowed to do better in the future. Well, I didn't. :sad: My adrenaline was pumping and my heart pounding, and again, I thought it best just to call it a day. Maybe if the blackjack gods, work with me and give me a few more of these opportunities, I will finally get the hang of it.
The other kind of embarrassing thing is that despite everything I have learned and know to be true, I still had some ploppy thoughts creep into my mind about how I am probably due to give some back now. Shows I still have a lot to work on.