The perfect shoe

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#1
I have let a few days pass before posting about this event for obvious reasons. I actually have debated whether I should post about it at all, as I know doing so has absolutely no positive value for me and could have negative consequences, however to be honest, I am just bursting to share this event. I have shared it with a few non blackjack playing friends and while I know they are extremely happy for me, they fail to really appreciate the enormity of the event. So I post, minus names, places and time details.

It was the second shoe of the day for me. A 6-deck game with really decent penetration. The first shoe, also at this table was uneventful as the count hovered around zero. Didn't go low enough to exit, didn't go high enough to raise my bet. Myself and one other player both playing a single spot were joined in the second round by another player wagering 2 hands. The small cards began to come out. The count grew. I began to increase my wagers up my betting ramp. Lost some hands, won some hands. With all the small cards appearing, I was actually holding my own. The count reaches my max wager point. About this time the player wagering 2 hands, and losing most, exits. Thanks! :) Small cards are still coming out. But, I am placing my max bet and winning. One hand I drew a 5 card 20. A couple other hands, my 4 card hand beat the dealers 4 card hand. The gent I had played the previous shoe with has had enough and exits, leaving only myself. The true count hits double digits. I decide to increase my max bet by 50%, which I know sounds kind of oxymoron-ish. My max bet is actually determined by a betting level that I wish to stay under, to avoid heat, rather than by bankroll limitations, as my bankroll can actually support a bigger max bet, so this is actually a move I have built into my plan for certain extreme situation and this most definitely qualifies. Probably most of you would have increased even more, but I stick to my game plan. Anyway, by the end of the shoe I have played at least 30, maybe 35 hands at max bets, with 20-25 of them being this 'super max bet'. I pushed two hands of 20, one which seemed like a win, (more on that in a minute) and had one split that ended up as a push with one win, one loss. Won every other hands, including a number of doubledowns. Ironically, No blackjacks. By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. :eek: This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play. I don't see how I will ever come close to this feat again. I may someday play at a higher level with much greater max bets, than I do now, which could allow me to make more than this on a single very good shoe, but I don't believe I will ever play 30 some hands at max bet and not lose a single hand.

Now, how can a push with max bet seem like a win? Let me tell you. I had a 10 vs dealer 10 and with a double digit TC the play was to double. By this time a gentleman from the pit had taken a mild interest in the game and I decided not to push the envelope by doubling as called for. I hit, drew a 2, hit a second time and drew an 8 to push the dealers 20. Had I doubled, I have a 12 and lose my double. The push seemed like a win to me. :eek:

One final though: Some of you may remember earlier this year, I spoke of another 'monster shoe' in which I won about half of the amount won here. At that time, that was my largest win in a session, and I was unable to compose myself and get my emotions together enough to continue play that day. I vowed to do better in the future. Well, I didn't. :sad: My adrenaline was pumping and my heart pounding, and again, I thought it best just to call it a day. Maybe if the blackjack gods, work with me and give me a few more of these opportunities, I will finally get the hang of it.

The other kind of embarrassing thing is that despite everything I have learned and know to be true, I still had some ploppy thoughts creep into my mind about how I am probably due to give some back now. Shows I still have a lot to work on. :eek:
 

Friendo

Well-Known Member
#2
The big picture

And, like every other individual shoe you'll ever play, it has no statistical significance whatsoever. :laugh:

I can't imagine an 870-unit shoe. Nice that you didn't have to wave off any ten-splitting situations, with the pit guy lurking.

That makes me feel better about the 42 max bets I dropped in 1150 hands: helps to confirm that it can also go the other way, far faster.

In all seriousness: congratulations. I always look forward to your accounts from the gritty trenches.
 

Bojack1

Well-Known Member
#3
kewljason said:
I have let a few days pass before posting about this event for obvious reasons. I actually have debated whether I should post about it at all, as I know doing so has absolutely no positive value for me and could have negative consequences, however to be honest, I am just bursting to share this event. I have shared it with a few non blackjack playing friends and while I know they are extremely happy for me, they fail to really appreciate the enormity of the event. So I post, minus names, places and time details.

It was the second shoe of the day for me. A 6-deck game with really decent penetration. The first shoe, also at this table was uneventful as the count hovered around zero. Didn't go low enough to exit, didn't go high enough to raise my bet. Myself and one other player both playing a single spot were joined in the second round by another player wagering 2 hands. The small cards began to come out. The count grew. I began to increase my wagers up my betting ramp. Lost some hands, won some hands. With all the small cards appearing, I was actually holding my own. The count reaches my max wager point. About this time the player wagering 2 hands, and losing most, exits. Thanks! :) Small cards are still coming out. But, I am placing my max bet and winning. One hand I drew a 5 card 20. A couple other hands, my 4 card hand beat the dealers 4 card hand. The gent I had played the previous shoe with has had enough and exits, leaving only myself. The true count hits double digits. I decide to increase my max bet by 50%, which I know sounds kind of oxymoron-ish. My max bet is actually determined by a betting level that I wish to stay under, to avoid heat, rather than by bankroll limitations, as my bankroll can actually support a bigger max bet, so this is actually a move I have built into my plan for certain extreme situation and this most definitely qualifies. Probably most of you would have increased even more, but I stick to my game plan. Anyway, by the end of the shoe I have played at least 30, maybe 35 hands at max bets, with 20-25 of them being this 'super max bet'. I pushed two hands of 20, one which seemed like a win, (more on that in a minute) and had one split that ended up as a push with one win, one loss. Won every other hands, including a number of doubledowns. Ironically, No blackjacks. By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. :eek: This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play. I don't see how I will ever come close to this feat again. I may someday play at a higher level with much greater max bets, than I do now, which could allow me to make more than this on a single very good shoe, but I don't believe I will ever play 30 some hands at max bet and not lose a single hand.

Now, how can a push with max bet seem like a win? Let me tell you. I had a 10 vs dealer 10 and with a double digit TC the play was to double. By this time a gentleman from the pit had taken a mild interest in the game and I decided not to push the envelope by doubling as called for. I hit, drew a 2, hit a second time and drew an 8 to push the dealers 20. Had I doubled, I have a 12 and lose my double. The push seemed like a win to me. :eek:

One final though: Some of you may remember earlier this year, I spoke of another 'monster shoe' in which I won about half of the amount won here. At that time, that was my largest win in a session, and I was unable to compose myself and get my emotions together enough to continue play that day. I vowed to do better in the future. Well, I didn't. :sad: My adrenaline was pumping and my heart pounding, and again, I thought it best just to call it a day. Maybe if the blackjack gods, work with me and give me a few more of these opportunities, I will finally get the hang of it.

The other kind of embarrassing thing is that despite everything I have learned and know to be true, I still had some ploppy thoughts creep into my mind about how I am probably due to give some back now. Shows I still have a lot to work on. :eek:
Interesting.......congrats on your good fortune
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#4
Friendo said:
Nice that you didn't have to wave off any ten-splitting situations, with the pit guy lurking.
There was a 10,10 vs dealer 3. The true count was pretty high. Maybe 9 or 10. I didn't split. I don't even know the index for such a play. Could be in that range. To be honest I have never even split ten's vs a 4 in my career. 10's vs 5,6 is a play that I make very sparingly and only at higher counts than called for, so I wasn't about to 'guess' at the index for splitting 10's vs 3. :rolleyes: I 'settled' for a winning hand of 20 with my super max bet out. :laugh:
 

farmdoggy

Well-Known Member
#5
Again? You lucky bastard!

:laugh:

Congrats!!! :)

I don't know if it is ploppy thought that you should expect to sometime, return to EV... Unless you are somehow underestimating your EV. I was afraid to go on my Vegas trip and increase my bets because I had had an unusual winning streak of about 15 wins in a row beforehand... I know the cards have no memory, but I have a memory, and I had a bad feeling that I was "due" for loss... The fact that I was "due" had nothing to do with my performance on that trip though, and I know that. Whether you suffer a huge loss in the future, or suffer slightly less than optimal performance, or hold on to your gains until this win isn't even a blip on a graph of your BR vs hands played, you will find you'll be at EV in the end, if you calculated it correctly. (I'll hope for the latter).

Nevertheless, It feels good to win :) And I'm happy to hear of your increased comfort level!

Keep the good cards coming:)

Edit: Am I smoking crack or something? Or does that come out to over a $20,000 win for the shoe?
 
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kewljason

Well-Known Member
#6
farmdoggy said:
Nevertheless, It feels good to win :) And I'm happy to hear of your increased comfort level!

Keep the good cards coming:)

Edit: Am I smoking crack or something? Or does that come out to over a $20,000 win for the shoe?
Thank you. And I have no idea exactly what you are smoking. :laugh: We like to talk units, not money. ZG tells me that if you post about money, by the time someone else reads it, it has already lost value. :eek::laugh:
 
#7
By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets.

WOW-I've had a couple of 250 unit shoes - Congrats
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#8
farmdoggy said:
:laugh:

Congrats!!! :)

I don't know if it is ploppy thought that you should expect to sometime, return to EV... Unless you are somehow underestimating your EV. I was afraid to go on my Vegas trip and increase my bets because I had had an unusual winning streak of about 15 wins in a row beforehand... I know the cards have no memory, but I have a memory, and I had a bad feeling that I was "due" for loss... The fact that I was "due" had nothing to do with my performance on that trip though, and I know that. Whether you suffer a huge loss in the future, or suffer slightly less than optimal performance, or hold on to your gains until this win isn't even a blip on a graph of your BR vs hands played, you will find you'll be at EV in the end, if you calculated it correctly. (I'll hope for the latter).

Nevertheless, It feels good to win :) And I'm happy to hear of your increased comfort level!

Keep the good cards coming:)

Edit: Am I smoking crack or something? Or does that come out to over a $20,000 win for the shoe?
I had that same foreboding two weeks ago before a trip to AC. I know the cards have no memory, but I also know that I have always experienced a substantial loss every so often. Since I have been experiencing a great winning streak (but not 100%) since last October, I was feeling "I was due" for a loss right about then.

As it turned out, my first day I dropped $4,200. But I didn't give up. The next day I had won back $2,800 at one point, but lost back $600 of that before leaving (all at $25 tables). Since then I have had a $450 win ($25 table) and a $550 loss ($25 and $50 tables). I guess "I'm due" for another winning streak. :laugh: :whip:
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#9
kewljason said:
I have let a few days pass before posting about this event for obvious reasons. I actually have debated whether I should post about it at all, as I know doing so has absolutely no positive value for me and could have negative consequences, however to be honest, I am just bursting to share this event. I have shared it with a few non blackjack playing friends and while I know they are extremely happy for me, they fail to really appreciate the enormity of the event. So I post, minus names, places and time details.

It was the second shoe of the day for me. A 6-deck game with really decent penetration. The first shoe, also at this table was uneventful as the count hovered around zero. Didn't go low enough to exit, didn't go high enough to raise my bet. Myself and one other player both playing a single spot were joined in the second round by another player wagering 2 hands. The small cards began to come out. The count grew. I began to increase my wagers up my betting ramp. Lost some hands, won some hands. With all the small cards appearing, I was actually holding my own. The count reaches my max wager point. About this time the player wagering 2 hands, and losing most, exits. Thanks! :) Small cards are still coming out. But, I am placing my max bet and winning. One hand I drew a 5 card 20. A couple other hands, my 4 card hand beat the dealers 4 card hand. The gent I had played the previous shoe with has had enough and exits, leaving only myself. The true count hits double digits. I decide to increase my max bet by 50%, which I know sounds kind of oxymoron-ish. My max bet is actually determined by a betting level that I wish to stay under, to avoid heat, rather than by bankroll limitations, as my bankroll can actually support a bigger max bet, so this is actually a move I have built into my plan for certain extreme situation and this most definitely qualifies. Probably most of you would have increased even more, but I stick to my game plan. Anyway, by the end of the shoe I have played at least 30, maybe 35 hands at max bets, with 20-25 of them being this 'super max bet'. I pushed two hands of 20, one which seemed like a win, (more on that in a minute) and had one split that ended up as a push with one win, one loss. Won every other hands, including a number of doubledowns. Ironically, No blackjacks. By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. :eek: This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play. I don't see how I will ever come close to this feat again. I may someday play at a higher level with much greater max bets, than I do now, which could allow me to make more than this on a single very good shoe, but I don't believe I will ever play 30 some hands at max bet and not lose a single hand.

Now, how can a push with max bet seem like a win? Let me tell you. I had a 10 vs dealer 10 and with a double digit TC the play was to double. By this time a gentleman from the pit had taken a mild interest in the game and I decided not to push the envelope by doubling as called for. I hit, drew a 2, hit a second time and drew an 8 to push the dealers 20. Had I doubled, I have a 12 and lose my double. The push seemed like a win to me. :eek:

One final though: Some of you may remember earlier this year, I spoke of another 'monster shoe' in which I won about half of the amount won here. At that time, that was my largest win in a session, and I was unable to compose myself and get my emotions together enough to continue play that day. I vowed to do better in the future. Well, I didn't. :sad: My adrenaline was pumping and my heart pounding, and again, I thought it best just to call it a day. Maybe if the blackjack gods, work with me and give me a few more of these opportunities, I will finally get the hang of it.

The other kind of embarrassing thing is that despite everything I have learned and know to be true, I still had some ploppy thoughts creep into my mind about how I am probably due to give some back now. Shows I still have a lot to work on. :eek:
Congratulations, KJ.

You answered a question of mine. Every time I am in a plus count situation I am tempted to lower my bet after winning several hands early on. So often I have experienced losing back everything I won by losing hands in the second part of the plus count. I mean, it stands to reason that if the house wins a greater percentage of hands on average in plus counts that they will win some of the ensuing hands.

But OTOH I know I still have the the edge percentage-wise on the money. Also, I know that if it has gone completely against me sometimes in the past, s owhy can't the opposite happen?

So I have been going all out pressing my advantage each time recently, but alas, I have generally lost back most of my winnings. You have given me renewed hope of catching that shoe from paradise (as opposed to the shoe from hell we all know, oh, so well). I think "I'm due." :laugh::joker::whip:
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#10
Congrats Jason. A few questions:
Were you playing rated?
Did you ask for chips no larger than purple when you colored up and did they require ID when you cashed out, or did you cash out just enough so ID and other related hassles wouldn't happen?
 

Dyepaintball12

Well-Known Member
#11
Sick dude! That is awesome!

Hey, if you had doubled on your 10 instead of just hitting, who knows maybe the rest of the shoe would have gone the other way! lol

Nice job!

- Dye
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#13
21forme said:
Congrats Jason. A few questions:
Were you playing rated?
Did you ask for chips no larger than purple when you colored up and did they require ID when you cashed out, or did you cash out just enough so ID and other related hassles wouldn't happen?
KJ: If you don't feel comfortable answering these questions in a post, could you send me the answers by PM?
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#15
21forme said:
Were you playing rated?

or did you cash out just enough so ID and other related hassles wouldn't happen?
I was playing unrated, as I do the majority of the time and always do at this particular property and it's sister properties, fearing a problem at one could mean loss of all. :sad: I have tested the waters at sister properties with no problem, so will just remove this particular store from my rotation for a while.

I know that second question isn't suggesting that I would have done anything illegal. :eek::angel: Keep in mind, that I live very close to many of the games I play, so at times I do not cash out or only partially cash out, not because I am attempting to do something illegal like structuring, but rather because I wish to avoid carry a large amount of cash and want to have chips readily available for my next session, saving time at buyin. :eek:


ohbehave said:
Awesome! Major stones to keep sticking that max/supermax bet out there for 35 hands. Hats off to you.
Not at all. It's easy to keep throwing out max bets when you are winning, it's when you are losing hand after hand it becomes a little tougher. :eek:
 
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farmdoggy

Well-Known Member
#16
kewljason said:
Not at all. It;s easy to keep throwing out max bets when you are winning, it's when you are losing hand ofter hand it becomes a little tougher. :eek:
Well I guess I'm the toughest o them all :laugh:
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#17
kewljason said:
I was playing unrated, as I do the majority of the time and always do at this particular property and it's sister properties, fearing a problem at one could mean loss of all. :sad: I have tested the waters at sister properties with no problem, so will just remove this particular store from my rotation for a while.

I know that second question isn't suggesting that I would have done anything illegal. :eek::angel:



Not at all. It;s easy to keep throwing out max bets when you are winning, it's when you are losing hand ofter hand it becomes a little tougher. :eek:
I can't count the number of times that the last few bets saved me from loss of session bankroll. You have to hang tough when it's going south. Or so my little bit of experience has shown. I guess it's anecdotal, but it's still all part of the "long run". Can we afford to pass up max bet opportunities?
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#18
aslan said:
Can we afford to pass up max bet opportunities?
Absolutely not. I was in no way suggesting one shouldn't put out the max bet when called for winning or losing. I was simply commenting on ohbehave's statement that it's takes stones to do so when winning. It doesn't! It takes stones to do so when losing. But, if you aren't willing to put out the money when called for, winning or losing, you shouldn't be playing the game. :rolleyes:
 

Dyepaintball12

Well-Known Member
#19
kewljason said:
Absolutely not. I was in no way suggesting one shouldn't put out the max bet when called for winning or losing. I was simply commenting on ohbehave's statement that it's takes stones to do so when winning. It doesn't! It takes stones to do so when losing. But, if you aren't willing to put out the money when called for, winning or losing, you shouldn't be playing the game. :rolleyes:
x2! It's all fun and games when winning, but when you're down big you still need to push it out!
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#20
kewljason said:
Absolutely not. I was in no way suggesting one shouldn't put out the max bet when called for winning or losing. I was simply commenting on ohbehave's statement that it's takes stones to do so when winning. It doesn't! It takes stones to do so when losing. But, if you aren't willing to put out the money when called for, winning or losing, you shouldn't be playing the game. :rolleyes:
I didn't mean to imply that you thought differently. I only meant to comment that it really doesn't take stones when you're losing either, once you realize that it's your best way out. :)
 
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