Trip BRing

[SleightOfHand]

If I am using a zen count betting ramp of: <1, bet $3; >=1, 25; >=5, 50. How much money should I bring for this casino if playing for up to 8 hours? And how do I calculate that sort of thing? I usually bring $1000 for my usual ramp, but I feel 20 max bets at 5 may seem a little low. Should I bring more?

 

[rukus]

If I am using a zen count betting ramp of: <1, bet $3; >=1, 25; >=5, 50. How much money should I bring for this casino if playing for up to 8 hours? And how do I calculate that sort of thing? I usually bring $1000 for my usual ramp, but I feel 20 max bets at 5 may seem a little low. Should I bring more?

it depends very much on the game you will be playing. clearly you chose a good count, so thats a good start .

here are some numbers for a 75% pen 6D H17 LS game, assuming you wong out at anything beyond -2 (which you should be doing, if not even -1, if playing shoe games and dont feel like backcounting before sitting).

i see hourly EV around $13 assuming rounds are dealt at rate of 100/hour.
i see hourly SD around $230 with same assumptions

for a 1k trip BR i see risk of tapout over the course of the trip to be:
about 4% for 5 hours of play
about 9.5% for 8 hours of play
about 13% for 10 hours of play

for 1.5k trip bankroll:
about 0.25% for 5 hours of play
about 1.5% for 8 hours of play
about 2.5% for 10 hours of play


this is based on my own spreadsheets which is based off of blackjack attack 3rd edition. i rounded the RORs to nearest quarter % for simplicity. you can also get all this info i think from CVCX, and it would be helpful if someone verifies what i wrote abovewith that software.

 

[Kasi]

how do I calculate that sort of thing?

It doesn't matter at all what count you use.

You need to know your EV and SD per round or hour. Maybe typically it's usually expressed in min units.

I guess one could also focus just on number of max bets one expects to make on the trip and work from there on the assumption that's where most of your wins or losses might likely come from.

 

[Kasi]

this is based on my own spreadsheets which is based off of blackjack attack 3rd edition. i rounded the RORs to nearest quarter % for simplicity. you can also get all this info i think from CVCX, and it would be helpful if someone verifies what i wrote abovewith that software.

CVCX has some trip calculators out there that you could use to verify.

To me it's not so much dollars, it's units so I can't verify anything without that.

If you use the trip formula on page 132, you'll agree with his calculator.

 

[rollem411]

If I am using a zen count betting ramp of: <1, bet $3; >=1, 25; >=5, 50. How much money should I bring for this casino if playing for up to 8 hours? And how do I calculate that sort of thing? I usually bring $1000 for my usual ramp, but I feel 20 max bets at 5 may seem a little low. Should I bring more?

I use a $10 unit and spread to 2x$50 at my max bet and bring a 1K session bankroll. It's really a matter of how much you are willing to lose in any given session. Of course you should bring enough to backup a "good shoe that has gone bad".

Only difference here is that I play 2-4 hour sessions.

Kasi is correct though, you must know your SD is order to determine a logical br. Also, is it 8 hours of play or just 8 hours at the casino and 4 hours of play. These factors will effect your "trip bankroll ror" which is what you are worried about.

If you can get the numbers I will gladly use the calculator to give you the results...

or give me more specifics and I can run a sim

 

[sagefr0g]

this link might prove interesting:
http://www.qfit.com/online-blackjack-calculator.htm

 

[rukus]

guys, the info i gave him used sim data for Zen count for the specified conditions. he did not know his EV or SD, which is why i gave it to him based on my sims. divide by $3 and that is his hourly ev and sd in units.

 

[Kasi]

this link might prove interesting:
http://www.qfit.com/online-blackjack-calculator.htm

http://www.card-counting.com/blackjack-calculator-c3.htm

is the trip calculator I use in your sheets.

Plug in the trip roll min units, the EV units/hr and the unit SD/hr. For 16 hrs you'd have to plug in 1600 hands in his calculator.

If his result and my result ever differ, please let me know.

You could always do it on a per-round basis too if you wanted.

 

[rukus]

http://www.card-counting.com/blackjack-calculator-c3.htm

is the trip calculator I use in your sheets.

Plug in the trip roll min units, the EV units/hr and the unit SD/hr. For 16 hrs you'd have to plug in 1600 hands in his calculator.

If his result and my result ever differ, please let me know.

You could always do it on a per-round basis too if you wanted.

just checked, my ROR numbers match as i expected them to (i use BJA formulas afterall) given my calculated EV and SD. what i wanted was for someone to check my hourly EV and SD with CVCX since i do not have it.

thanks,
rukus

 

[Kasi]

It's really a matter of how much you are willing to lose in any given session.
Only difference here is that I play 2-4 hour sessions.

Oh no, not this "session" stuff again lol.

To me it's not about how much you are willing to lose, it's about how often you want to risk losing it all over a time period.

There's no point in having a 5000 unit roll but only willing to lose 5 units on a 16 hour trip. 1000 trips later, you're broke lol, if you see what I mean lol.

With a trip roll, your "fiinishing" ROR after x hours is often not at all the same thing as "being down by that much at some point prior" to x hours.

If you have a 1000 unit roll and bring 100 units on a trip, when you lose the 100 units you're done (in theory lol.) If you had brought 1000 units, sometimes you could recover from a loss like that, obviously.

Your "finishing" at some point after x hours can be at least double or more your chances of being losing that much at some point.

Basically, chances are, you have to bring more units on say a 16 hr trip than you may think.

As far as that 4 hr vs 8 hr stuff goes, you're absolutely right. I don't know why but everything seems to be based on playing (or seeing) 100/hds/hr and everything seems to want to be on a per/hr basis. I can see why and all that, everyone wants to make the most money per unit of time after all, but it's certainly something to be aware of when figuring this stuff out.

One way around it is to just do it per round. If you play 60 rounds in an hour for an hour and 120 rounds in an hour some other time with fewer players, well, then you've played 180, not 200, rounds in 2 hours.

Even if you're back-counting and, say, only physically playing 27 rounds of every hundred you see, you can base it per/hr or per round.

I must be some oddball lol because per/round seems most logical to me. Or at least writing down every hour how many rounds you estimate you actually palyed and work out the hr stuff later if you want.

N0 occurs in a fixed number of physical rounds played, not a number of hours played.

Whatever, avoid the whole problem and have access to your whole roll on a trip.

 

[Kasi]

just checked, my ROR numbers match as i expected them to (i use BJA formulas afterall) given my calculated EV and SD. what i wanted was for someone to check my hourly EV and SD with CVCX since i do not have it.rukus

I had no doubt your ROR numbers would not match.

Just as I have no doubt, your numbers would agree with a CVCX sim with the same assumptions.

Do you use a sheet to create sims? Or where did the sim you used for Zen count with whatever assumptions come from? Just curious.

Especially since it seemed to me maybe he was "playingaLL" but you were starting a shoe at the top and then wonging out? Maybe lol? If so, how could the same ramp be optimal under both circumstanes - just seems it might change the ramp?

You wild and crazy guy you I had no idea you were doing what you were doing without sim software ? lmao. And I don't mean Powersim :grin:

Hey, publicly or privately, is there a snowball's chance you have a sheet that can do the formulae on pp 136-137?

It's been a black hole in my soul for a long time :cry:

 

[rukus]

I had no doubt your ROR numbers would not match.

Just as I have no doubt, your numbers would agree with a CVCX sim with the same assumptions.

Do you use a sheet to create sims? Or where did the sim you used for Zen count with whatever assumptions come from? Just curious.

Especially since it seemed to me maybe he was "playingaLL" but you were starting a shoe at the top and then wonging out? Maybe lol? If so, how could the same ramp be optimal under both circumstanes - just seems it might change the ramp?

You wild and crazy guy you I had no idea you were doing what you were doing without sim software ? lmao. And I don't mean Powersim :grin:

Hey, publicly or privately, is there a snowball's chance you have a sheet that can do the formulae on pp 136-137?

It's been a black hole in my soul for a long time :cry:

I do use a sim - CVData. my spreadsheets basically replicate some of CVCX - but instead of using canned sims like CVCX, i can insert any sim i want to run in CVData. i had built them a year or two ago when to cement all the concepts and realized CVData combined with my sheets gave me just about all i needed.

to answer your questions, yes, playing all vs white rabbit (per Don S) will change your optimal ramp. i wouldnt recommend to the OP to play all with a 1-16 spread. would recommend 1-30 if playall and possible .

one thing my spreadsheet cannot do is spit out results for say wonging in at +1 and then wonging out at -1. it basically uses the same wong in/out point. i have been too lazy to implement otherwise in my sheets. will probably get to it eventually. shortfall that CVCX definitely overcomes which is why i always recommend it to others.

dont have BJA with me, so cant check your page references. what are the formulas you are talking about?

 

[Kasi]

... what are the formulas you are talking about?

Now it makes complete sense to me lol. CVDATA counts too as a sim lol.

What a relief lol.

Like you say, Id think you'd need a sim to do that wong in and out stuiff at different points. It just seems it would have to change the freq of TC's played.

Another area that's always bugged me too lol. In that, without a sim, I don't think there's a way I can even take a reasonable guess.

The formulae are the first 2 double-barrier formulae designed to figure out the chances of achieving a Goal in a defined Time before going bankrupt.
They involve an infinite series sum and that throws me off lol.

I'm forced to go out and use Norm's calculators if I really care lmao.

No big deal.

 

[rukus]

Now it makes complete sense to me lol. CVDATA counts too as a sim lol.

What a relief lol.

Like you say, Id think you'd need a sim to do that wong in and out stuiff at different points. It just seems it would have to change the freq of TC's played.

Another area that's always bugged me too lol. In that, without a sim, I don't think there's a way I can even take a reasonable guess.

The formulae are the first 2 double-barrier formulae designed to figure out the chances of achieving a Goal in a defined Time before going bankrupt.
They involve an infinite series sum and that throws me off lol.

I'm forced to go out and use Norm's calculators if I really care lmao.

No big deal.

my sheets do calculate (or should i say "approximate") the double-barrier formulas. i check my results vs norm's online goal calculator and they are very very close, but not exact. not sure what method he uses to approximate those infinite sums. maybe i missed something but i basically just calculate ahead of time (given EV, SD, time) how many terms of that series it will take for the sum of the remaining series to become negligible. i would be interested in how norm calculates it since our numbers are off ever so slightly (like 0.02%... so not a big deal at all). until then, maybe trust his calculator?

 

[Kasi]

my sheets do calculate (or should i say "approximate") the double-barrier formulas. i check my results vs norm's online goal calculator and they are very very close, but not exact. not sure what method he uses to approximate those infinite sums. maybe i missed something but i basically just calculate ahead of time (given EV, SD, time) how many terms of that series it will take for the sum of the remaining series to become negligible. i would be interested in how norm calculates it since our numbers are off ever so slightly (like 0.02%... so not a big deal at all). until then, maybe trust his calculator?

Thanks rukus, you gave me an idea.

Even I don't worry, well too much anyway, about 0.02%. You're probably rounding pie and "e" to only 20 decimals and he's only using 4 or so :grin: :joker:

Heck yeah - I trust his calculator(s) lmao.

This from a "Tust Noone" kind of guy too lmao.

Never seen a half-full glass in my life :joker: