True count

[Whatsmytotal]

How is it possible for any counting system to be accurate without utilizing the true count?

 

[Sonny]

Because you are still tracking the relative high/low composition of the shoe. You are using an initial offset to "balance" the shoe but the RC is still giving a reasonably accurate estimation of the TC:

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/counting/unbalbal.htm (Archive copy)

-Sonny-

 

[bluewhale]

hey i'm going counting for the second time shortly and am wondering if this kind of spread is a good idea...
TC <= 1 1 unit
TC = 2 2
3 3
4 5
>= 5 10

The main problem with my last counting experience i feel was not betting enough when the count was high, i feel this shld change that. btw my unit is $5.

 

[supercoolmancool]

You really want to have your max bet at +4.

 

[bluewhale]

You really want to have your max bet at +4.

wow, isn't that spread a little much? i thought mine was over the top, but going to my max bet on a tc of 4?

 

[supercoolmancool]

wow, isn't that spread a little much? i thought mine was over the top, but going to my max bet on a tc of 4?

+4 true count is the only way to go. Seriously. That is what they say in KO. +4 KO is +4 TC and that is when you place your max bet.

 

[ScottH]

wow, isn't that spread a little much? i thought mine was over the top, but going to my max bet on a tc of 4?

I have to agree with supercoolmancool. I think it is recommended to have your max bet out at a TC of +4.

 

[sagefr0g]

I have to agree with supercoolmancool. I think it is recommended to have your max bet out at a TC of +4.

agreed here also. sort of. i'm planning on ramping my bets up as QFIT showed me that my ramp is too slow. my current max bet which i normally put out at TC=+5 will probably be at TC=+4 and then i'll increase my spread for my biggest bet at TC=+5 . still working on it though gotta simullate it.

 

[bluewhale]

+4 true count is the only way to go. Seriously. That is what they say in KO. +4 KO is +4 TC and that is when you place your max bet.

wow, really eh. btw, i'm using hi/lo not knockout and my max bet is 10 units so i tought i'd save that for the tc of 5, i guess not

i'm not really concerned about ror as by BR is at 10 grand and growing steadily right now (and with a unit of $5 i'm sure i have a VERY low RoR)

 

[hopson77]

So for a 1-10 or 1-12 spread, what would a good ramp look like? I had previously done something somewhat similar to the ramp mentioned above:

1 - 1
2 - 2
3 - 4
4 - 6
5 - 10-12 (no math here, just what i felt like )

 

[supercoolmancool]

So for a 1-10 or 1-12 spread, what would a good ramp look like? I had previously done something somewhat similar to the ramp mentioned above:

1 - 1
2 - 2
3 - 4
4 - 6
5 - 10-12 (no math here, just what i felt like )

When you calculate risk of ruin and EV it is assumed your max bet is at +4. The only important quality in a ramp is max bet at +4. I would bet

2-8
3-10
4-12

 

[Sonny]

1 - 1
2 - 2
3 - 4
4 - 6
5 - 10-12 (no math here, just what i felt like )

That's the same spread that Schlesinger used in his sims in Blackjack Attack. Either way is fine. Making your max bet at +4 will get more money on the table but at a lower advantage. "Pulling the trigger" early will increase your EV but also your SD and ROR. If you are playing a game with weak penetration then you might want to make max bets at +4 since a +5 will rarely happen.

As long as the EV and SD are acceptable either spread is fine.

-Sonny-

 

[ScottH]

wow, really eh. btw, i'm using hi/lo not knockout and my max bet is 10 units so i tought i'd save that for the tc of 5, i guess not

i'm not really concerned about ror as by BR is at 10 grand and growing steadily right now (and with a unit of $5 i'm sure i have a VERY low RoR)

With 2000 units your ROR is less than 1% It depends on other factors too, but it has to be lower than a percent, probably closer to 0 than 1.

 

[Sonny]

When you calculate risk of ruin and EV it is assumed your max bet is at +4.

Your ROR is based on your EV and SD, both of which reflect whatever bet ramp you are using. The formulas will work for any bet ramp you choose.

-Sonny-

 

[supercoolmancool]

Your ROR is based on your EV and SD, both of which reflect whatever bet ramp you are using. The formulas will work for any bet ramp you choose.

-Sonny-

Yah that's what I meant.

 

[bluewhale]

Yah that's what I meant.

That's the same spread that Schlesinger used in his sims in Blackjack Attack. Either way is fine. Making your max bet at +4 will get more money on the table but at a lower advantage. "Pulling the trigger" early will increase your EV but also your SD and ROR. If you are playing a game with weak penetration then you might want to make max bets at +4 since a +5 will rarely happen.

As long as the EV and SD are acceptable either spread is fine.

-Sonny-

thanks everyone for the advice. the pen is quite weak in my game (70-75%) so i'm going to go with...
1 - 1
2 - 2
3 - 5
4 - 10

 

[Cass]

When you calculate risk of ruin and EV it is assumed your max bet is at +4. The only important quality in a ramp is max bet at +4. I would bet

2-8
3-10
4-12

I like this spread and I know mine is similar with my kiss count. Higher ROR but it gets the money out there!