Hey guys. I've been playing for about 6 months now. I use Hi-Lo with about 30 indices and I can count down a deck in 16 seconds. I practice about 6 to 8 hours a week dealing in my basement and making payouts. I am very confident in my game. In the past 7 hours of playing, I lost 345 units. It was a large chunk of my bankroll (900 units). Needless to say, I'm very discouraged. I know losses are to be expected, but if these type of losses happen on a regular basis, I don't know if CCing is for me! I think I'm playing with pretty decent rules: 6 decks, 83% Pen., S17, LS, DAS, no RSA. What's even worse: two sessions ago, after I Wonged into a good shoe, a player at the table mentioned to the PC that he thought I was "watching cards". I flat bet the entire shoe, and played with a great act and then left. So, I am half way to my N0, down 360 units, and may not be welcome at my home store for much longer. There are two other stores by me, but with their inferior rules, crowded conditions, and my limited bankroll, playing there wouldn't be very profitable at this point. So needless to say, after 70 hours of playing, CCing has turned out to be kind of a disaster for me. I don't know if I'm looking for advice really, or just trying to vent, but any suggestions as far as whether or not I should give this store a break and some time to cool down?
Very Discouraged :(
- Thread starter MH1
- Start date
You may not be as good as you think. You should look into buying Casino verite to practice, and CVCX to do simulations.
Without these tools, you are not playing an optimal game, and could be throwing away whatever edge you may think you have.
In the end, you need to simply play hundreds and hundreds of hours.... Keep plugging away, and you'll be enjoying the rewards... Don't give up!
Without these tools, you are not playing an optimal game, and could be throwing away whatever edge you may think you have.
In the end, you need to simply play hundreds and hundreds of hours.... Keep plugging away, and you'll be enjoying the rewards... Don't give up!
I'm willing to take your personal proficiency assessment at face value. Therefore you must be willing to believe in the math. Losing a third+ of your BR in a 7+hr time is NOT terribly out of the order.
Assuming you've properly audited your proficiency, like with good drilling software, CONTINUE PLAYING.
One question -- how big is your unit size? If you are playing $25u and you lose half of the BR you will either need to cut your unit size in half at that point, or you can recognize and accept that you are playing a boom-or-bust BR and go all the way with resizing. Either approach is valid. On the other hand, IF you are already playing at min-bet unit, then you do not have the resizing option. Just go for it all the way... OR rethink your BR as replenishable - like say IF you lose half you will replenish the lost half.
Many ways to skin the BR cat.
LASTLY, lets make sure that you are not overbetting your BR. zg
Assuming you've properly audited your proficiency, like with good drilling software, CONTINUE PLAYING.
One question -- how big is your unit size? If you are playing $25u and you lose half of the BR you will either need to cut your unit size in half at that point, or you can recognize and accept that you are playing a boom-or-bust BR and go all the way with resizing. Either approach is valid. On the other hand, IF you are already playing at min-bet unit, then you do not have the resizing option. Just go for it all the way... OR rethink your BR as replenishable - like say IF you lose half you will replenish the lost half.
Many ways to skin the BR cat.
LASTLY, lets make sure that you are not overbetting your BR. zg
Losing 345 units of a 900 unit bankroll in 7 hours suggests to me that you are overbetting your bankroll. I occasionaly will lose 300 to 400 units in a session, but thats my ramp and I have an 11000 unit bankroll - so no biggie. You may be trying to hit home runs while you should be concentrating on RBI's. If I'm right, scale down your ramp - raising mayber a unit per increase in TC. This will reduce your EV as well as your variance, Post your unit and br aount, and we can do a fast and dirty sim for you - and let you know where you stand ROR wise
Mh1
Your game sounds very decent, but with no RSA or DDOSA learn how to play those aces as an AP should under the various circumstances.
Also open your eyes in the casino, there can be so many things better than CCing. Things you may not even imagine.
That ploppy that ran his mouth, I would be gunning for that guy, one way, two ways,,, or the other.
CP
Your game sounds very decent, but with no RSA or DDOSA learn how to play those aces as an AP should under the various circumstances.
Also open your eyes in the casino, there can be so many things better than CCing. Things you may not even imagine.
That ploppy that ran his mouth, I would be gunning for that guy, one way, two ways,,, or the other.
CP
CVCX gives me a 2.8% ROR for my bankroll. I am Wonging in at +1, and out at -1. Playing two hands starting at +2, my max bet of 10x2 comes at TC +6. Unfortunatley, due to the table min. for the 6 deckers, I am forced to play 2.5 unit from TC-1 to TC+1. CVCX gives me a .13% probability of a worse result.
Check CVCX again. I don't think you're anywhere near N0 if you've been wonging for 70 hours. CC'ing is a tough road to travel and you have to have faith in the math. Like CP said, put that loudmouth on your radar, so you can teach him a lesson, and keep your eyes out for other opportunities at your casino for a while.
It Happens
Despite some concerns of others, I will assume you are playing a good game and that your betting is reasonable. I have been playing for years and built a small bankroll into a pretty nice one. The fact is, bad things happen. Here's a story that sounds like I must really be overbetting but I assure you I'm not. I have calculated everything about my play and I currently have a risk of ruin of about 1%.
Some time ago I was on my longest playing trip and I was carrying about 20% of my bankroll in my pocket (well money belt actually). The count skyrocketed early in a shoe (I have never seen such a flood of small cards) and with about 4 decks to go the count was almost plus 30. I was playing heads up, so I had a lot of great hands coming to me. I started betting heavily into the shoe. I won 2 hands pushed once and lost every other hand. I lost doubles, splits, everything ... By the time I was finished the dealer had wiped me out. 20% of my bankroll gone in 10 minutes.
The moral of my story. Really bad stuff happens. I went home a little numb but not discouraged. Years of play said I'll see some great shoes too and that I would recover and I have recovered.
Despite some concerns of others, I will assume you are playing a good game and that your betting is reasonable. I have been playing for years and built a small bankroll into a pretty nice one. The fact is, bad things happen. Here's a story that sounds like I must really be overbetting but I assure you I'm not. I have calculated everything about my play and I currently have a risk of ruin of about 1%.
Some time ago I was on my longest playing trip and I was carrying about 20% of my bankroll in my pocket (well money belt actually). The count skyrocketed early in a shoe (I have never seen such a flood of small cards) and with about 4 decks to go the count was almost plus 30. I was playing heads up, so I had a lot of great hands coming to me. I started betting heavily into the shoe. I won 2 hands pushed once and lost every other hand. I lost doubles, splits, everything ... By the time I was finished the dealer had wiped me out. 20% of my bankroll gone in 10 minutes.
The moral of my story. Really bad stuff happens. I went home a little numb but not discouraged. Years of play said I'll see some great shoes too and that I would recover and I have recovered.
You almost have to embrace losing to become a warrior at this game as it will happen many many many times. All you can do is learn to accept it and focus on the long run. If you find yourself dwelling on the losses a lot, it may not be the game for you. As it is, for most of us, we're playing with a very slim edge. If you feel yourself getting killed. It doesn't hurt to just stand up, take a walk outside, eat a meal, clear your head and maybe try attacking another table.
creeping panther said:
Your game sounds very decent, but with no RSA or DDOSA learn how to play those aces as an AP should under the various circumstances.
Also open your eyes in the casino, there can be so many things better than CCing. Things you may not even imagine.
That ploppy that ran his mouth, I would be gunning for that guy, one way, two ways,,, or the other.
CP
Also open your eyes in the casino, there can be so many things better than CCing. Things you may not even imagine.
That ploppy that ran his mouth, I would be gunning for that guy, one way, two ways,,, or the other.
CP
Seriously - if there's something dumber than you're every day ploppie, it's a ploppie whose so in love with the casino that they will tell on you to the pit boss.
When you see **** like this happen, you know the casino has won the propaganda war.
Losing 1/3 of your bankroll is a fairly common occurrence. I wish I could say "don't sweat it" but I know you probably are. Hopefully you already have a plan for what to do in case you wind up losing 1/2 of your bankroll. Figure what kind of spread you need to handily beat that game and how much cover you can use and then STICK TO YOUR PLAN. You cannot just play one place like you are working at 7-11...blackjack play requires lots of travel...backoffs are inevitable if you play somewhere a lot. Take them as they come, accept it, and move onto the next target. Your option isn't that one casino or the other two crappy ones...your option is to give your home base casino a rest and go play in some other part of the country...there are casinos almost everywhere now.
to risky for you
Your statements show your risk of drawdown is to high for you. It's NOT about ror its risk of drawdown.
What to do?
Cut bets on losses.
Do not raise bets beyond your starting level until your bank grows to perhaps 1/4 Kelly, then resize up or down with bank growth.
Losing 20% of bank in short order is not necessary.
Also, about .5 N0 is when variance & EV can be very far apart.
Your statements show your risk of drawdown is to high for you. It's NOT about ror its risk of drawdown.
What to do?
Cut bets on losses.
Do not raise bets beyond your starting level until your bank grows to perhaps 1/4 Kelly, then resize up or down with bank growth.
Losing 20% of bank in short order is not necessary.
Also, about .5 N0 is when variance & EV can be very far apart.
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creeping panther said:
Your game sounds very decent, but with no RSA or DDOSA learn how to play those aces as an AP should under the various circumstances.
Also open your eyes in the casino, there can be so many things better than CCing. Things you may not even imagine.
That ploppy that ran his mouth, I would be gunning for that guy, one way, two ways,,, or the other.
CP
Also open your eyes in the casino, there can be so many things better than CCing. Things you may not even imagine.
That ploppy that ran his mouth, I would be gunning for that guy, one way, two ways,,, or the other.
CP
I once had played a game at a local store that only offered doubles on 9, 10, and 11 (should never have been playing the game anyway!), and a new trainee dealer comes to deal. After some hands I double a soft A2 versus 5 and the ploppy sitting next to me tells the dealer it is against the casino rules!!( she had already paid me on the win). This is after I`ve seen him losing consecutively big flat bets for at least half an hour.
What are people thinking sometimes- Its unreal.............
The episode where someone noted you were watching the cards should not have changed anything except "possibly" create a little temporary heat. You should have just flat bet you max bet until the count dropped and then left. There is nothing suspicious about that that would have a PC call surveillance. If someone said that about me I would say, "You bet I'm watching the flow of cards! I don't want a losing table."
As for the run of bad variance, yes, it can continue over the short run (perhaps enough to wipe you out), but it can't continue over the long run. But I do sympathize, and it is the very reason that I am not so gung ho about card counting as when I first began. In the short run, one risks some significant losses for a small expected return. It is disheartening at times. I am trying to learn other AP skills to augment CC, but even that is no easy road to riches. I love the challenge of the game and exploring ways to improve my chances, but I am strictly a recreational player, even though I frequently play at the $25 and $50 levels. If it bothers you a lot over a long period of time, then you are either betting above your means or this is not for you, since you are obviously out of your comfort zone. I find myself distressed for a short time after a major loss, but spring back in short order and am raring to go back to the front lines. But the repeated springs forward and inevitable drops backward do take their toll. We are playing with a puny 1% advantage with characteristic wide swings in variance, so we should expect nothing less. We knew this when we began, but there is nothing like experiencing it in living color to realize what it really means. Sorry, MH1, that I cannot paint you a rosy picture; you'll have to decide for yourself if card counting is for you.
As for the run of bad variance, yes, it can continue over the short run (perhaps enough to wipe you out), but it can't continue over the long run. But I do sympathize, and it is the very reason that I am not so gung ho about card counting as when I first began. In the short run, one risks some significant losses for a small expected return. It is disheartening at times. I am trying to learn other AP skills to augment CC, but even that is no easy road to riches. I love the challenge of the game and exploring ways to improve my chances, but I am strictly a recreational player, even though I frequently play at the $25 and $50 levels. If it bothers you a lot over a long period of time, then you are either betting above your means or this is not for you, since you are obviously out of your comfort zone. I find myself distressed for a short time after a major loss, but spring back in short order and am raring to go back to the front lines. But the repeated springs forward and inevitable drops backward do take their toll. We are playing with a puny 1% advantage with characteristic wide swings in variance, so we should expect nothing less. We knew this when we began, but there is nothing like experiencing it in living color to realize what it really means. Sorry, MH1, that I cannot paint you a rosy picture; you'll have to decide for yourself if card counting is for you.