Weekend Warriors II

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
The Game and Conditions which all Warriors must abide by:

2D s17,D(10,11 only),ndas,NRA(1card),resplitx4 67%pen,HA-.54
10$ units
1-5 spread
10,000K BR(200MaxBets)
play all & one on one
I18 indices


jack,jackson
----------- $6,027 @ 23,611 hands
gatherer
----------- $1,098 @ 1,004 hands
Canceler
----------- ($862.50) @ 2,004 hands
Kasi
----------- $0.00 @ 0 hands
sagefr0g
----------- $1,250 @ 1,734 hands
k_c
----------- $5,180 @ 13,018 hands
aslan
----------- $25.00@ 59 hands


totals
---------- $12,718@ 41,430 hands


Lets see those results canceler. I know your to ashamed to post them..lol 1/2 way there.

Personal note: Watch out for kc
 
Last edited:

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
jack said:
The Game and Conditions which all Warriors must abide by:

2D s17,D(10,11 only),ndas,NRA(1card),resplitx4 67%pen,HA-.54
10$ units
1-5 spread
10,000K BR(200MaxBets)
play all & one on one
I18 indices


jack,jackson
----------- $6,027 @ 23,611 hands
gatherer
----------- $1,098 @ 1,004 hands
Canceler
----------- ($862.50) @ 2,004 hands
Kasi
----------- $0.00 @ 0 hands
sagefr0g
----------- $1,250 @ 1,734 hands
k_c
----------- $5,180 @ 13,018 hands
aslan
----------- $25.00@ 59 hands


totals
---------- $12,718@ 41,430 hands
so we made N0
and doubled the bank..... maybe thanks to some std dev......
thanks to hurricane jj :p
if we was all using hi/lo our stats would be as below:
 

Attachments

k_c

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
so we made N0
and doubled the bank..... maybe thanks to some std dev......
thanks to hurricane jj :p
if we was all using hi/lo our stats would be as below:
TC <1: 1 unit
TC 1 to <2: 1 units
TC 2 to <3: 2.5 units
TC 3 to <4: 5 units
TC >=4: 5 units

I changed to the above spread to compare your figures to what I got in my sim. That's what you use, isn't it?

Code:
[u]Parameter[/u]                  [u]The amphibian[/u]         [u]Dr. Strangemath[/u]
Average bet                1.6883                1.66
Win rate/round             0.132                 .03 (actual), .004 (expected)
Std dev/round (units)      2.465                 2.34
RoR (bank=1000, goal=2000) 1.27%                 14.78%
1) How do you get win rate/round? (1271.8 units/41430 rounds = ~.03070)

2) My RoR uses Griffin's method of approximation from Theory of Blackjack. I use calculated pre-deal EVs using basic strategy. For the rounds I've simmed the average Hi-Lo TC=-0.28 so the actual EVs may be lower than what would be expected in the long run and might reduce RoR but I don't think it ever would get as low as your figure. Maybe the use of indices could be what lowers it?
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
k_c said:
TC <1: 1 unit
TC 1 to <2: 1 units
TC 2 to <3: 2.5 units
TC 3 to <4: 5 units
TC >=4: 5 units

I changed to the above spread to compare your figures to what I got in my sim. That's what you use, isn't it?
yes.

Code:
[u]Parameter[/u]                  [u]The amphibian[/u]         [u]Dr. Strangemath[/u]
Average bet                1.6883                1.66
Win rate/round             0.132                 .03 (actual), .004 (expected)
Std dev/round (units)      2.465                 2.34
RoR (bank=1000, goal=2000) 1.27%                 14.78%
1) How do you get win rate/round? (1271.8 units/41430 rounds = ~.03070)
it should be average bet unit/rnd * WL% = 1.6883 * 0.784%/100% = 0.013 unit/rnd = win rate in units per round
so what that would be $10/unit * 0.013unit/rnd = $0.13/rnd ?
that's from Kasi's spread sheet. i think that's from Schlesinger's BJA stuff & maybe some wizard of odds stuff, not sure... maybe Kasi will clarify.
2) My RoR uses Griffin's method of approximation from Theory of Blackjack. I use calculated pre-deal EVs using basic strategy. For the rounds I've simmed the average Hi-Lo TC=-0.28 so the actual EVs may be lower than what would be expected in the long run and might reduce RoR but I don't think it ever would get as low as your figure. Maybe the use of indices could be what lowers it?
hmm, i'm confused are you talking about that other bet ramp you was using or the one where your ramping like my sim? are you referring to trip ROR or lifetime ROR? not sure we are talkin apples and oranges here. lol sorry i'm confused.
but yeah that's the lifetime ROR my sim got 1.3% or so. same for an hour trip with a 60 unit trip roll and same for the probability of busting trying to double the bank if the bankroll is $10,000 with no time limit imposed.
maybe Kasi can clarify some.
edit: do you have Kasi's warrior spread sheet? that might help clarify?
maybe i set this one up, i think this link is it: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/attachment.php?attachmentid=1098&d=1219098909

by the way what and how your doing what your doing is way cool. i just got to take some time and look it all over. but i'd have a hard time understanding Griffin's stuff. tryed to read his book and got lost as hell but i can lose good like claimed he did. lol
 
Last edited:

k_c

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
yes.


it should be average bet unit/rnd * WL% = 1.6883 * 0.784%/100% = 0.013 unit/rnd = win rate in units per round
so what that would be $10/unit * 0.013unit/rnd = $0.13/rnd ?
that's from Kasi's spread sheet. i think that's from Schlesinger's BJA stuff & maybe some wizard of odds stuff, not sure... maybe Kasi will clarify.
Why wouldn't win rate per round in units be equal to (units won or lost)/(total rounds)?

sagefr0g said:
hmm, i'm confused are you talking about that other bet ramp you was using or the one where your ramping like my sim? are you referring to trip ROR or lifetime ROR? not sure we are talkin apples and oranges here. lol sorry i'm confused.
but yeah that's the lifetime ROR my sim got 1.3% or so. same for an hour trip with a 60 unit trip roll and same for the probability of busting trying to double the bank if the bankroll is $10,000 with no time limit imposed.
maybe Kasi can clarify some.
edit: do you have Kasi's warrior spread sheet? that might help clarify?
maybe i set this one up, i think this link is it: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/attachment.php?attachmentid=1098&d=1219098909
OK, I get a RoR of close to zero for trying to double a bank of $10,000. I get a feeling Griffin's method may under estimate RoR a bit because I don't think it takes into consideration that extra units must be wagered on splits and doubles, but I don't know for sure.

sagefr0g said:
by the way what and how your doing what your doing is way cool. i just got to take some time and look it all over. but i'd have a hard time understanding Griffin's stuff. tryed to read his book and got lost as hell but i can lose good like claimed he did. lol
I don't understand why his RoR method would work but I can do the math. I know how to mathematically calculate RoR for a 1 unit flat bet for a fixed EV and a given bank and goal. Basically his method is to find equivalent bank, goal, and EV so it can be used in a flat bet and fixed EV calculation.

By the way I did change to your spread, at least for now. In my sim my original spread had an actual +/- of +429.0 units with an expected +/- of +55.54 units. Your spread had an actual +/- of +399.75 units with an expected +/- of +55.06 units for the same 13,018 rounds.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
k_c said:
Why wouldn't win rate per round in units be equal to (units won or lost)/(total rounds)?
straight up warrior, i don't know.:)
would (units won or lost)/(total rounds) be better called average win/round?
rate (to me) implies delta(y)/delta(x) or the derivative of the (change of y) with respect to the (change of x) sort of thing, no? and maybe if the stuff is linear just dividing is ok but if the stuff varys how it changes then you need calculus ie. take the derivative. and if that's what who ever means then the win rate per round would be [delta(y)/delta(x)]unit/round ? lmao.
so maybe i'm making it to hard and the answer is really just how some body defined win rate back in the history of blackjack math?
so obviously i don't know cause i don't know Kasi's spread sheet's definition of win rate per round in units. another good question is it a linear function? i doubt it. :confused:
Kasi's spread sheet employs win rate per round in units = (average bet units)*(W/L%) ....... but i think you really got to divide out the % by going %/100% sort of thing :confused:
but anyway i think how you can see the bolded parameters relate to cvcx's help definitions....
do i detect a differance in what the encyclopedia calls win/loss and what cvcx calls it? i think initial bet needs to be stipulated in the encyclopedia definition?
the online blackjack encyclopedia(http://www.bjrnet.com/member/bjapr/W.htm) calls some of this stuff:
win/loss. As in win/loss ratio. A mathematical term that reflects the ratio between the total amount of wins divided by the total amount of losses.

win rate. A player's long-run expectation. Generally expressed in dollars/hour, dollars/hands played or in percent form.


so if you looked at my sim i know that cvcx calls this stuff this way in it's help section:
Ø Bet Average - Average initial bet in units. This is the bet before double downs, splits, surrender or insurance.

Ø Win/Loss - Also called EV or IBA (Initial Bet Advantage.) This is the amount won or lost divided by the initial bet.

Ø Standard Deviation - Provided by hand and hour and used for desirability and risk calculations.

Ø Win Rates - Units and dollars won per hour.

Ø Risk of Ruin - The chance that you will lose the bankroll that you have set at the top of the page.

Ø DI - The desirability index developed by Don Schlesinger is a combination of win rate and standard deviation and is designed to rate the desirability of a situation. A higher DI is better.

Ø C-SCORE - c-SCORE is a term coined by Richard Reid to indicate comparative SCORE and is calculated without the bankroll and risk requirements of Don Schlesinger’s SCORE. It can be used to compare two situations and is calculated by squaring the Desirability Index.

Ø Certainty Equivalent - If you do not see this field, go to the Options tab and click on Customize Columns. CE is essentially the value of a wager.

Ø CE/WR Ratio - This is the ratio of Certainty Equivalent and Win Rate. Ideally this is 0.5. If this is less than .5, then your risk of ruin is greater than you wish.

Ø True Count Frequency - The percentage of hands at each True Count.

Ø EV - The expected percentage won at each true count and the standard error. Also known as IBA.

Ø Optimal Bet Exact - Here the ideal number of units to bet is calculated to maximize the desirability index.



OK, I get a RoR of close to zero for trying to double a bank of $10,000. I get a feeling Griffin's method may under estimate RoR a bit because I don't think it takes into consideration that extra units must be wagered on splits and doubles, but I don't know for sure.
lol i guess i better try and read Griffin again before i get even more senile than i already am. lmao. maybe i'll fool myself into thinking i can do it. :joker:
I don't understand why his RoR method would work but I can do the math. I know how to mathematically calculate RoR for a 1 unit flat bet for a fixed EV and a given bank and goal. Basically his method is to find equivalent bank, goal, and EV so it can be used in a flat bet and fixed EV calculation.
so i guess he has to get that stuff from some statistical information. so in my confusiion doesn't he need some standard deviation parameters in there?
lol, what do i know? :confused: just shootin the breeze lol.
guess i need to really try and understand this ROR stuff a bit better. :rolleyes:
By the way I did change to your spread, at least for now. In my sim my original spread had an actual +/- of +429.0 units with an expected +/- of +55.54 units. Your spread had an actual +/- of +399.75 units with an expected +/- of +55.06 units for the same 13,018 rounds.
yeah i think your ramp would win more but might have had a little more ROR. thinik i ran a sim of your ramp just to compare it. i think i deleted all that stuff in cvcx cause i was doin something else and all the created sims i had in there were confusing to wade through. lol. did a little house cleaning, hope i didn't throw the baby out lmao.
 
Last edited:

k_c

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
straight up warrior, i don't know.:)
would (units won or lost)/(total rounds) be better called average win/round?
rate (to me) implies delta(y)/delta(x) or the derivative of the (change of y) with respect to the (change of x) sort of thing, no? and maybe if the stuff is linear just dividing is ok but if the stuff varys how it changes then you need calculus ie. take the derivative. and if that's what who ever means then the win rate per round would be [delta(y)/delta(x)]unit/round ? lmao.
so maybe i'm making it to hard and the answer is really just how some body defined win rate back in the history of blackjack math?
so obviously i don't know cause i don't know Kasi's spread sheet's definition of win rate per round in units. another good question is it a linear function? i doubt it. :confused:
Kasi's spread sheet employs win rate per round in units = (average bet units)*(W/L%) ....... but i think you really got to divide out the % by going %/100% sort of thing :confused:
but anyway i think how you can see the bolded parameters relate to cvcx's help definitions....
do i detect a differance in what the encyclopedia calls win/loss and what cvcx calls it? i think initial bet needs to be stipulated in the encyclopedia definition?
the online blackjack encyclopedia(http://www.bjrnet.com/member/bjapr/W.htm) calls some of this stuff:
win/loss. As in win/loss ratio. A mathematical term that reflects the ratio between the total amount of wins divided by the total amount of losses.

win rate. A player's long-run expectation. Generally expressed in dollars/hour, dollars/hands played or in percent form.


so if you looked at my sim i know that cvcx calls this stuff this way in it's help section:
Ø Bet Average - Average initial bet in units. This is the bet before double downs, splits, surrender or insurance.

Ø Win/Loss - Also called EV or IBA (Initial Bet Advantage.) This is the amount won or lost divided by the initial bet.

Ø Standard Deviation - Provided by hand and hour and used for desirability and risk calculations.

Ø Win Rates - Units and dollars won per hour.

Ø Risk of Ruin - The chance that you will lose the bankroll that you have set at the top of the page.

Ø DI - The desirability index developed by Don Schlesinger is a combination of win rate and standard deviation and is designed to rate the desirability of a situation. A higher DI is better.

Ø C-SCORE - c-SCORE is a term coined by Richard Reid to indicate comparative SCORE and is calculated without the bankroll and risk requirements of Don Schlesinger’s SCORE. It can be used to compare two situations and is calculated by squaring the Desirability Index.

Ø Certainty Equivalent - If you do not see this field, go to the Options tab and click on Customize Columns. CE is essentially the value of a wager.

Ø CE/WR Ratio - This is the ratio of Certainty Equivalent and Win Rate. Ideally this is 0.5. If this is less than .5, then your risk of ruin is greater than you wish.

Ø True Count Frequency - The percentage of hands at each True Count.

Ø EV - The expected percentage won at each true count and the standard error. Also known as IBA.

Ø Optimal Bet Exact - Here the ideal number of units to bet is calculated to maximize the desirability index.




lol i guess i better try and read Griffin again before i get even more senile than i already am. lmao. maybe i'll fool myself into thinking i can do it. :joker:

so i guess he has to get that stuff from some statistical information. so in my confusiion doesn't he need some standard deviation parameters in there?
lol, what do i know? :confused: just shootin the breeze lol.
guess i need to really try and understand this ROR stuff a bit better. :rolleyes:

yeah i think your ramp would win more but might have had a little more ROR. thinik i ran a sim of your ramp just to compare it. i think i deleted all that stuff in cvcx cause i was doin something else and all the created sims i had in there were confusing to wade through. lol. did a little house cleaning, hope i didn't throw the baby out lmao.
I'm not good at long winded responses so just a couple of things for now.

1) RoR seems to be a little lower for my original ramp than the new ramp.

2) I use loss/win ratio in RoR calculations. I'll never be able put it into words so I'll show my code with some comments and hope that sheds some light.
Code:
[color=green]'this function converts EV to a win%. if win%=50% it just
calculates RoR and exits. if initial bank exceeds goal RoR=0 and function
is exited. otherwise the data is passed to a function that compute RoR[/color]
Public Function RoR(EV As Double, bank As Long, goal As Long) As Double
    Dim pwin As Double, p As Double
    
    pwin = (1 + EV) / 2 [color=green]'convert EV to win % (just converts EV to W/L %)[/color]
    p = (1 - pwin) / pwin [color=green]'p = (ratio of loss % to win %)[/color]
    
    If bank >= goal Then [color=green]'if bank>goal, don't even play, and RoR=0[/color]
        RoR = 0
        Exit Function
    End If

[color=green]'if (win%=loss%) RoR is easy to calculate for a flat bet of 1 unit[/color]
    If EV = 0 Then
        RoR = 1 - bank / goal
        Exit Function
    End If
   
[color=green]'otherwise use one unit flat bet formula function (getRoR) below[/color] 
    RoR = getRoR(p, bank, goal)
End Function

********************************************************
[color=green]'function to compute RoR[/color]
Public Function getRoR(p As Double, bank As Long, goal As Long) As Double
    On Error GoTo Overflow
 
[color=green]'this is the formula that does the RoR computation
it depends on p which is loss to win ratio. p in turn depends on
EV. The values for EV, bank, and goal are equivalent values derived
as Griffin says and are based on some kind of statistical analysis.
The formula itself is an exact mathematical calculation for a one unit
flat bet with an even money payoff at a fixed EV[/color]   
    getRoR = (p ^ bank - p ^ goal) / (1 - p ^ goal)
    Exit Function

[color=green]'if the above formula comes up with a number outside of the
range that a computer can handle, use logarithms to come up with
an estimate[/color]   
Overflow: 'compute an estimate if there is an overflow
    Dim log_bank As Double, log_goal As Double
    Dim logDiff As Double
    
    log_p_bank = bank * Log(p) / Log(10)
    log_p_goal = goal * Log(p) / Log(10)
    logDiff = log_p_bank - log_p_goal
    
    If logDiff > 15 Then
        getRoR = 1
    Else
        getRoR = 1 - 10 ^ logDiff
    End If
End Function
Sorry I can't explain it any better. I am really a statistics midget. The only statistical analysis I use is to take Griffin's word of what to do and then use it in an exact calculation that I can relate to. I really don't trust convoluted statistical representations and try to avoid them.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
Is WWII over? I didn't even get a chance to play. lol It is after 4 o'clock am and I have just returned to my room. Good day today. After two days of playing I am up $1,200. Funny thing, I actually won $2,300 playing Blackjack, but I put $1,100 in the slots, primarily Super deuces Wild. Never hit anything bigger than 100 units. :( You know, after each grueling session of Blackjack I just feel like I need some entertainment so I slip into a chair at the Deuces Wild machine. lol It's a ton of fun, but I can't hit bupkus. lol I'm ready to give up my VP career. As it is, I'll have to hit three Royal Straight Flushes in a row just to get even. LOL Anyway, it's nice to wind up winner. Especially nice when the wife knows exactly how much I brought with me. lol She checks the bank account on line like a mother hen looks after her chicks. lol But I have to hand it to her--when I talked with her on the phone this morning all she said was win lots of money. Not a word about be careful and all that. Although she did say before I left that I ought to be careful cause this is all the money I will have when we go to Vegas in October. lol Now what gives her the right to say that. You'd think she was in charge of all the money we have in the bank. lol
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
Is WWII over? I didn't even get a chance to play. lol It is after 4 o'clock am and I have just returned to my room. Good day today. After two days of playing I am up $1,200. Funny thing, I actually won $2,300 playing Blackjack, but I put $1,100 in the slots, primarily Super deuces Wild. Never hit anything bigger than 100 units. :( You know, after each grueling session of Blackjack I just feel like I need some entertainment so I slip into a chair at the Deuces Wild machine. lol It's a ton of fun, but I can't hit bupkus. lol I'm ready to give up my VP career. As it is, I'll have to hit three Royal Straight Flushes in a row just to get even. LOL Anyway, it's nice to wind up winner. Especially nice when the wife knows exactly how much I brought with me. lol She checks the bank account on line like a mother hen looks after her chicks. lol But I have to hand it to her--when I talked with her on the phone this morning all she said was win lots of money. Not a word about be careful and all that. Although she did say before I left that I ought to be careful cause this is all the money I will have when we go to Vegas in October. lol Now what gives her the right to say that. You'd think she was in charge of all the money we have in the bank. lol
wwII over? just the calm before the storm me thinks, matey? cap'n jj me thinks had $25G's in mind. :rolleyes:
well i'm glad you quit flipin coins for a bit and knocked em dead in where is that AC? and good your having fun, maybe a little too much fun with the vid poker stuff. hopefully it gets you some comps and it was one of those almost plus EV type's. enough with the mother hen stuff outa me lol, but your wife is on top of all that lol. does she do stuff like i was saying here?
my percieved advantage (aka results) was well over 2% but that was only two years and just barely at my N0 maybe. so my anecdotal evidence agree's with the luck part of your statement. just as an aside do you think that meant anything to my wife when i came home loser? NOT. but she was right. truth was as hard as i honestly made the effort i was screwing up left and right and didn't even have the self awareness or intellectual integrity to realize it. but she did! lmao.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=94710&postcount=34
maybe it's good to have some one watching your back. :cool2::whip:
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
wwII over? just the calm before the storm me thinks, matey? cap'n jj me thinks had $25G's in mind. :rolleyes:
well i'm glad you quit flipin coins for a bit and knocked em dead in where is that AC? and good your having fun, maybe a little too much fun with the vid poker stuff. hopefully it gets you some comps and it was one of those almost plus EV type's. enough with the mother hen stuff outa me lol, but your wife is on top of all that lol. does she do stuff like i was saying here?
my percieved advantage (aka results) was well over 2% but that was only two years and just barely at my N0 maybe. so my anecdotal evidence agree's with the luck part of your statement. just as an aside do you think that meant anything to my wife when i came home loser? NOT. but she was right. truth was as hard as i honestly made the effort i was screwing up left and right and didn't even have the self awareness or intellectual integrity to realize it. but she did! lmao.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=94710&postcount=34
maybe it's good to have some one watching your back. :cool2::whip:
Sounds our experiences have been largely the same. Who was that MIT expert who said that to become a pro card counter requires luck. You better believe it. Why I didn't go broke the first month out of the gate, I'll never know! Somebody up their must have been looking out for me. Oh, that's right, can't bring the spirit world into this. Voooodoooo. I like the old saying, "Work as if everything depended on you, and pray as if everything depended on God." That about sums it up. 100%/100% As zg says, "That's the ticket!"
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
Is WW2 over?

Hell no, we're only through the first wave of the first batallion...geez
We still have to flank the Germans over on strawberry hill. Im afraid Kasi and Canceller are MIA. They were part of the first Infantry, that Invaded Normandy. Air support should be here tomorrow, so just stand-by soldier.


....-...--....-----.....---.-.-...-.....---...-.-.-.-.-....---

jackson out.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
jack said:
Is WW2 over?

Hell no, we're only through the first wave of the first batallion...geez
We still have to flank the Germans over on strawberry hill. Im afraid Kasi and Canceller are MIA. They were part of the first Infantry, that Invaded Normandy. Air support should be here tomorrow, so just stand-by soldier.


....-...--....-----.....---.-.-...-.....---...-.-.-.-.-....---

jackson out.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!! You're cracking me up, jackson! Whoooooosh! Whoa! There goes another artillery shell. Whizzed right past my ear. [Alsan headfirst back into his foxhole] Can you hear me now? I'm staying put for a while. Try to play a few rounds when I wake up from my post-AC shuteye. scared005.gif
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
Sounds our experiences have been largely the same. Who was that MIT expert who said that to become a pro card counter requires luck. You better believe it. Why I didn't go broke the first month out of the gate, I'll never know! Somebody up their must have been looking out for me. Oh, that's right, can't bring the spirit world into this. Voooodoooo. I like the old saying, "Work as if everything depended on you, and pray as if everything depended on God." That about sums it up. 100%/100% As zg says, "That's the ticket!"
no problem: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=98910&postcount=78 :devil::whip:::angel:
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
k_c said:
Why wouldn't win rate per round in units be equal to (units won or lost)/(total rounds)?
All I know is I use avg-bet units in figuring win rate as a %age. It looks like "the amphibian" above agrees with my sheet real closely. My sheet doesn't figure out actual win rate. Just what's expected from a sim. I think it agreed with CVCX in a picture The Wise One posted.

One slight problem with actual win rate is I don't know if the 41000 hands is 41000 rounds or 41000 hands (counting splits as 2 hands).

But you are so many light-years beyond me all I can tell you is I just use the freq, adv and SD from a sim and multiply it out. When it agrees with the sim out put I feel good lol. For the ROR's I just use formulae from BJAIII when I can figure it out lol.

I guess there's a bunch of different formulas for all that ruin stuff anyway. Single barrier, double barrier and I don't know what.

I really have to check your stuff out.

Thanks for contributing so much. Man are we lucky to have you around.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
jack said:
Is WW2 over?

Im afraid Kasi and Canceller are MIA.
Chuck Norris just rescued me lol.

Looks like the Warriors are 2 for 2. Reach N0 with results way exceding 1 SD as luck would have it.

From this point forward, with a 2200 unit roll, ROR is 1 in a 1000 maybe and it seems likely we would win money forever at this point.

But why not continue - maybe individuals will want to reach their own NO even though as a team we have reached it.

Looks like all JJ's bets are at the right counts with the right amount bet - what else can you do but that? At least he knows now, whether "lucky" or not in his current 23000 hands, that he is counting accurately and betting properly. Thanks to his software.

The Wise One knew that from the first time around. If he ever wants to do the Full Monty he knows he can.

Like the A-team guy said "I love it when a plan comes together" :grin:
 

k_c

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
All I know is I use avg-bet units in figuring win rate as a %age. It looks like "the amphibian" above agrees with my sheet real closely. My sheet doesn't figure out actual win rate. Just what's expected from a sim. I think it agreed with CVCX in a picture The Wise One posted.
I think I misread the units/round win rate anyway. I posted it was .132 units/round when I think that is dollars/round. Units/round = .013 and your saying that is expected units/round.

Kasi said:
One slight problem with actual win rate is I don't know if the 41000 hands is 41000 rounds or 41000 hands (counting splits as 2 hands).
It seems to me since the pre-deal EV applies to the entire round it is better to reference win rate/round

Kasi said:
But you are so many light-years beyond me all I can tell you is I just use the freq, adv and SD from a sim and multiply it out. When it agrees with the sim out put I feel good lol. For the ROR's I just use formulae from BJAIII when I can figure it out lol.
I'm just trying to approach it from an exact calculation point of view. I can't sim a huge number of shoes/rounds doing that but the expectation from each round can be exactly computed. The actual results are just what happens short term but should eventually approach what happens long term as more data is added. I guess the average expectations might vary some depending whether the simmed shoes tended to be positive or negative. For the 13018 rounds I've simmed so far average Hi-Lo TC was -.23 so expectations might be on the low side. I think I'm getting a pretty good picture of what to expect though.

Kasi said:
I guess there's a bunch of different formulas for all that ruin stuff anyway. Single barrier, double barrier and I don't know what.
I'm thinking of trying to adjust Griffin's method to allow for the fact that the standard deviation for a WWII hand of blackjack is about 1.10 in order to compensate for extra bets required for splits and doubles if I can convince myself that it makes sense. Right now RoR is the only statistical analysis type of thing in my spreadsheet.
Kasi said:
I really have to check your stuff out.

Thanks for contributing so much. Man are we lucky to have you around.
Your welcome. I do the best I can to stick to basics and keep from falling overboard into the :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: voodoo abyss.
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Chuck Norris just rescued me lol.

Looks like the Warriors are 2 for 2. Reach N0 with results way exceding 1 SD as luck would have it.

From this point forward, with a 2200 unit roll, ROR is 1 in a 1000 maybe and it seems likely we would win money forever at this point.

But why not continue - maybe individuals will want to reach their own NO even though as a team we have reached it.

Looks like all JJ's bets are at the right counts with the right amount bet - what else can you do but that? At least he knows now, whether "lucky" or not in his current 23000 hands, that he is counting accurately and betting properly. Thanks to his software.

The Wise One knew that from the first time around. If he ever wants to do the Full Monty he knows he can.

Like the A-team guy said "I love it when a plan comes together" :grin:
This is most likely to have been considered before, but I wonder what our "real" online team is. While we have the people seen contributing, I'm sure there had to be at least 1 person who tried and had an early losing streak and decided just to stop and not post their results, giving us a biased result. Maybe I'm wrong. hehe. Regardless, I would like to join the team :grin: Using Hi Opt I with given rules.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
give luck it's due

aslan said:
Yea, I like that kind of "weak" God. Not two-faced, cuz you always know what side he's on. He's the original anti-politician. The Straight Talk Express in the sky. lol
uhh huh, that's what i'm tawkin bout bro.
get down with all the intellectual stuff anybody wants to.
just give me the odds of being born
and live over half a century to tell about it
tell me what makes the USA so great
explain how in a universe where entropy rules
that blackjack exists (a closed sytem that offers a free lunch)
but i know there's one way to ALLWAYS WIN
cause:
I'M LUCKY
a certain Somebody jus can't help it and thats what makes me
jus like the guy in the flic below:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYO0Ugqba4c
 
Top