weird day
- Thread starter KewlJ
- Start date
First, in answer to Don's question, it makes no difference to me. The main reason being we are talking about something that already happened, past tense. I have experienced so many outcomes ending both ways that they are now all rather irrelevant to me.
One size does not fit all. Specifically defining what short term variance and available playing time frequencies means to different people. KewlJ, what you consider short term can mean something very different from other players perspectives. Many very good players have other full-time jobs, some others work part-time, and everyone has different commitments and responsibilities. We have players on boards who need to show ID just to prove that they are 21, and we also have members who are playing in their seventies who may have many different feelings about short term results. I am no spring chicken and the main reason I do not worry about short term results is that a long time ago I learned for myself to completely separate the cost of living my life from my other (gaming) separate life.
One size does not fit all. Specifically defining what short term variance and available playing time frequencies means to different people. KewlJ, what you consider short term can mean something very different from other players perspectives. Many very good players have other full-time jobs, some others work part-time, and everyone has different commitments and responsibilities. We have players on boards who need to show ID just to prove that they are 21, and we also have members who are playing in their seventies who may have many different feelings about short term results. I am no spring chicken and the main reason I do not worry about short term results is that a long time ago I learned for myself to completely separate the cost of living my life from my other (gaming) separate life.
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I haven't made a trip to play blackjack for more than a day in a very long time.
My reference was to days in the '70s and early '80s when I would often win or lose more in a single 10-day trip to Las Vegas than my take-home pay was as a teacher for most of the year.
So, it doesn't matter what you say today -- it's hysterically funny for you to be "teaching" me to trust the math and not to worry about short-term variance! I have never, ever, played this game for a living -- only as a hobby. And there was a time when the money mattered to me. That stopped happening in the late '80s, and what I have ever won or lost since then playing blackjack has never made the slightest difference to me.
But, thanks for the advice!
Don
My reference was to days in the '70s and early '80s when I would often win or lose more in a single 10-day trip to Las Vegas than my take-home pay was as a teacher for most of the year.
So, it doesn't matter what you say today -- it's hysterically funny for you to be "teaching" me to trust the math and not to worry about short-term variance! I have never, ever, played this game for a living -- only as a hobby. And there was a time when the money mattered to me. That stopped happening in the late '80s, and what I have ever won or lost since then playing blackjack has never made the slightest difference to me.
But, thanks for the advice!
Don
My comment that you should believe in the math and stop those sleepless nights was meant to be humorous, Don.
But seriously, you are the one that made that odd comment about waking up happier being ahead for the trip. That kind of short term results just doesn't matter. And again, because we seem to have some players, attempting to play for a living freaking out about short term variance, I sort of hate to see any reference to the contrary.
My younger brother and I have had interesting ends to our year. I spent the entire year very close to EV, ranging from slightly above to slightly below. I took about 3 months off from blackjack card counting, this fall, working on another advantage play. But in the final 2-3 weeks, I wanted to cram in some additional play. Results were negative and I am currently running just about 80% of EV for the year and am not planning on playing anymore.
Now my brother, has been running well below EV the entire year, ranging from as low as 30% during the first half of the year, to about 50% as late as mid November. He has gone on a tear over the past 5 weeks and as of yesterday was remarkably close to the same 80% as I am. Not sure of whether he intends to play further or not.
And in the end (of the year) which we are now very close to, that is all that matters. It doesn't matter that I was close to EV most of the year and he was far, far below. What matters is where you finish. Luckily, even fairly early in his young career, he handled this well, or he wouldn't have gotten any sleep this year.
But seriously, you are the one that made that odd comment about waking up happier being ahead for the trip. That kind of short term results just doesn't matter. And again, because we seem to have some players, attempting to play for a living freaking out about short term variance, I sort of hate to see any reference to the contrary.
My younger brother and I have had interesting ends to our year. I spent the entire year very close to EV, ranging from slightly above to slightly below. I took about 3 months off from blackjack card counting, this fall, working on another advantage play. But in the final 2-3 weeks, I wanted to cram in some additional play. Results were negative and I am currently running just about 80% of EV for the year and am not planning on playing anymore.
Now my brother, has been running well below EV the entire year, ranging from as low as 30% during the first half of the year, to about 50% as late as mid November. He has gone on a tear over the past 5 weeks and as of yesterday was remarkably close to the same 80% as I am. Not sure of whether he intends to play further or not.
And in the end (of the year) which we are now very close to, that is all that matters. It doesn't matter that I was close to EV most of the year and he was far, far below. What matters is where you finish. Luckily, even fairly early in his young career, he handled this well, or he wouldn't have gotten any sleep this year.
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"My comment that you should believe in the math and stop those sleepless nights was meant to be humorous, Don."
Funny, somehow I missed the smiley faces after the below two paragraphs. And, you aren't exactly known for being shy with emojis!
But seriously, you are the one that made that odd comment about waking up happier being ahead for the trip. That kind of short term results just doesn't matter.
If you believe in the math as all serious players do, then short term variance is completely meaningless, whether a session, day, week or a couple days on a trip.
So you'll pardon me if I missed the humor. Sounded more like you were preaching.
And now, there's this: "Surprising to hear you of all people argue otherwise with that odd 'sleep better' statement."
Because you went to bed with me, now?! I'm EXPLAINING to you how I felt for those 10-15 years. You feel the need to pass judgment on it, as if you need to explain to me that it SHOULDN'T matter?? You want to tell me that that would never have been you? Wonderful! Pin a gold star on your forehead and move on.
Don
Funny, somehow I missed the smiley faces after the below two paragraphs. And, you aren't exactly known for being shy with emojis!
But seriously, you are the one that made that odd comment about waking up happier being ahead for the trip. That kind of short term results just doesn't matter.
If you believe in the math as all serious players do, then short term variance is completely meaningless, whether a session, day, week or a couple days on a trip.
So you'll pardon me if I missed the humor. Sounded more like you were preaching.
And now, there's this: "Surprising to hear you of all people argue otherwise with that odd 'sleep better' statement."
Because you went to bed with me, now?! I'm EXPLAINING to you how I felt for those 10-15 years. You feel the need to pass judgment on it, as if you need to explain to me that it SHOULDN'T matter?? You want to tell me that that would never have been you? Wonderful! Pin a gold star on your forehead and move on.
Don
I think, being so young in my career, initially it will be a bit of a rollercoaster to come to terms with seeing the money come and go.
Knowing myself, as I settle in to it, it'll just become one of those things. Losing your trip winnings and breaking even would be annoying, but as KJ said, thinking in terms of EV will no doubt be a glimmering consolation to look forward to in the future.
To answer Don's question, I'd rather be winning for the trip then break even. In my inexperienced opinion, this would be the least emotionally testing of the two scenarios.
For me, it would be better to experience the trip winning and then the annoyance of breaking even than to have the stress of losing and having to go over gameplay and make sure you're playing properly.
Knowing myself, as I settle in to it, it'll just become one of those things. Losing your trip winnings and breaking even would be annoying, but as KJ said, thinking in terms of EV will no doubt be a glimmering consolation to look forward to in the future.
To answer Don's question, I'd rather be winning for the trip then break even. In my inexperienced opinion, this would be the least emotionally testing of the two scenarios.
For me, it would be better to experience the trip winning and then the annoyance of breaking even than to have the stress of losing and having to go over gameplay and make sure you're playing properly.
JoeGold said:
It must, I agree. Unfortunately, we do not have the luxury of choice gifted to us by Don's question in real life.
If we all had the choice, we'd all choose to be considerably in the positive at the end of our trip, that would be the ultimate stress free experience.
If we all had the choice, we'd all choose to be considerably in the positive at the end of our trip, that would be the ultimate stress free experience.
I play both, but more 6 deck. Double deck is usually the better opportunity, but in my experience that comes with more scrutiny and heat.
I also learned the game playing 8 deck games in Atlantic City, so I have justalwaysbeen very comfortable with shoe games.
I think with current conditions the trick to playing a winning shoe game is to escape at least some of the negative counts. In this day and age, play all approach is difficult.
I also learned the game playing 8 deck games in Atlantic City, so I have justalwaysbeen very comfortable with shoe games.
I think with current conditions the trick to playing a winning shoe game is to escape at least some of the negative counts. In this day and age, play all approach is difficult.
To Don’s question and give another perspective to KewlJ condescending comments... I’ll take an early loss and the challenge/adventure/hustle feeling to earn it back later in the trip any day.
I travel few times a year to Vegas, it’s a long flight and I’m at a significant exchange rate difference. I don’t vary my spread or bets to account for the exchange rate, I know it will throw me off my I game. However, I ensure I apply the variations and have the bankroll to keep the same ROR for the exchange rate.
Because of the above, I grind around the strip the first 2 days of my trip and if I reach an 80% winning expectation for my trip bankroll I stop and relax the last day. If I suffered a huge loss, I’d definitely grind back and minimize sleep hoping to make it back.
Different story on my home game. Case in point, I suffered a big loss of $4.5K a few days ago, only to win back $10k the day after. The loss stung, but I got up to work and even forgot about it at times during the day. After winning it back, I also forgot about that during the day. At my stakes I’m now experiencing these swings very often, even comparing proportionally to my former stakes. I’d also wonder if it’s due to increased heads up play and more hands per hour.
I can’t fathom to win big in Vegas and then give it back at the end of the trip, since that “wasted time” feeing will stick with me until the next trip.
Agreed 100%. I’m a recreational part time counter deep in the green. The above mentioned $4.5K loss didn’t sting because it almost feels like “house money” ploppy thinking. However I remember my early red chip days where a $150 loss would ruin my week because it was part of my work income. As somebody else said earlier in the thread, if you can compartamentalize your money between deep in the green gambling money and work money, stress is reduced immensely.
I travel few times a year to Vegas, it’s a long flight and I’m at a significant exchange rate difference. I don’t vary my spread or bets to account for the exchange rate, I know it will throw me off my I game. However, I ensure I apply the variations and have the bankroll to keep the same ROR for the exchange rate.
Because of the above, I grind around the strip the first 2 days of my trip and if I reach an 80% winning expectation for my trip bankroll I stop and relax the last day. If I suffered a huge loss, I’d definitely grind back and minimize sleep hoping to make it back.
Different story on my home game. Case in point, I suffered a big loss of $4.5K a few days ago, only to win back $10k the day after. The loss stung, but I got up to work and even forgot about it at times during the day. After winning it back, I also forgot about that during the day. At my stakes I’m now experiencing these swings very often, even comparing proportionally to my former stakes. I’d also wonder if it’s due to increased heads up play and more hands per hour.
I can’t fathom to win big in Vegas and then give it back at the end of the trip, since that “wasted time” feeing will stick with me until the next trip.
Agreed 100%. I’m a recreational part time counter deep in the green. The above mentioned $4.5K loss didn’t sting because it almost feels like “house money” ploppy thinking. However I remember my early red chip days where a $150 loss would ruin my week because it was part of my work income. As somebody else said earlier in the thread, if you can compartamentalize your money between deep in the green gambling money and work money, stress is reduced immensely.