What do you consider profitable card counting
- Thread starter BJStanko
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BJStanko
Well-Known Member
On Average
I know you won't make exactly $10/per hour or $30/per hour.
But on AVERAGE, what would you consider profitable card counting including all your losses and wins and time you played.
If you played 100 hours in three months and you're up $ 7 000, that means that you made $70/h
Does this make more sense?
I know you won't make exactly $10/per hour or $30/per hour.
But on AVERAGE, what would you consider profitable card counting including all your losses and wins and time you played.
If you played 100 hours in three months and you're up $ 7 000, that means that you made $70/h
Does this make more sense?
lagavulin62
Well-Known Member
hope I'm not splitting hairs bj but the answer is all are profitable. 100+/hour is the ideal but not always achievable. it comes down to whether or not you believe the effort is worth your return per hour, whatever that may be. I know thats what you meant, just wanted to help with the wording.
Mikeaber
Well-Known Member
Slant
I would answer that question with another question...sneeky method isn't it?
If you played 100 hours and broke even....would you continue to play BJ or would you give it up for tidley-winks or some other game?
I think the answer has to be an analysis of the purpose for which you play the game. If it is to make a living at it, then obviously you are going to have to have some profit goal to continue with your pursuit...either that, or you'll have to have deep pockets.
For someone who works minimum wage in their "day job" and considering gambling as a career change, a profit average of $10 or $15 an hour might seem attractive. For someone who is making $100 an hour, a $70 margin might seem a cut in pay.
For someone who only plays part time (as in 100 hours every three months), then any avoidence of loss might be acceptable.
On the other hand, if you are playing for the entertainment value, then a break even scenario or even a slight loss might be perfectly adequate to motivate you to keep playing.
As for me, whether I count or not, breaking even is not a goal I'd spurn. I play for the entertainment value of the activity but even so, I'm playing to win and not to loose.
I would answer that question with another question...sneeky method isn't it?
If you played 100 hours and broke even....would you continue to play BJ or would you give it up for tidley-winks or some other game?
I think the answer has to be an analysis of the purpose for which you play the game. If it is to make a living at it, then obviously you are going to have to have some profit goal to continue with your pursuit...either that, or you'll have to have deep pockets.
For someone who works minimum wage in their "day job" and considering gambling as a career change, a profit average of $10 or $15 an hour might seem attractive. For someone who is making $100 an hour, a $70 margin might seem a cut in pay.
For someone who only plays part time (as in 100 hours every three months), then any avoidence of loss might be acceptable.
On the other hand, if you are playing for the entertainment value, then a break even scenario or even a slight loss might be perfectly adequate to motivate you to keep playing.
As for me, whether I count or not, breaking even is not a goal I'd spurn. I play for the entertainment value of the activity but even so, I'm playing to win and not to loose.
lagavulin62
Well-Known Member
your answer is exactly what I am saying, except in more detail. thanks, I didn't want to be the one doing all the typing. but I would add another point that you sometimes see on these boards. it goes something like this, for all the effort you put into card counting the likelyhood is that you will end up with a dollar/hour profit that is far less than what you could make working retail someplace, unless you have at least a 6 figure bankroll. true, but here is another point to consider, I don't need an extra income and am not considering a career change. I have a feeling most of us who enjoy blackjack are in the same predicament. (lets hope anyway) and then if someone were to offer me $20/hour to man the counter at 7/11 I would politely turn them down. if on the other hand they were to guarantee me 5/hour in profits playing blackjack I would accept. you just can't compare the two. we all have that fantasy of hitting the lottery, blackjack is similar except that it's a lot closer to reality and at least we get some enjoyment out of it even if we only break even or have a small profit. thats much better in my opinion than a guaranteed min wage rate and the chance of catching a bullet.
BJStanko
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I know that it is profitable if we make 1 cent per hour on average. It is profitable in the books and on paper. In real life it is a little bit different. I want profit, I don't play for fun.
I do not understand people playing for fun
Instead I would recommend "fun" players to booze up with pineapple vodka, or orange juice vodka, or any other drink and hit the night clubs in Vegas. IT IS LOT MORE FUN!
I never had desire to play any casino game before I found out that Blackjack can be beaten.
Forget that enthusiastic nonsense
I do not understand people playing for fun
Instead I would recommend "fun" players to booze up with pineapple vodka, or orange juice vodka, or any other drink and hit the night clubs in Vegas. IT IS LOT MORE FUN!I never had desire to play any casino game before I found out that Blackjack can be beaten.
Forget that enthusiastic nonsense
Mikeaber
Well-Known Member
BJStanko said:Yeah, I know that it is profitable if we make 1 cent per hour on average. It is profitable in the books and on paper. In real life it is a little bit different. I want profit, I don't play for fun.
I do not understand people playing for fun
I never had desire to play any casino game before I found out that Blackjack can be beaten.
Forget that enthusiastic nonsense
Some people like camping. Some like riding motorcycles. Some like to cook.
If the only way you get mileage out of BJ is to attack the casino and ignore the entertainment, more power to you and I do wish you all the well deserved profits that might come your way.
Our objectives are basically the same except that I see profit in being entertained. If I were not entertained by it, then I'd as soon not risk my money but would do as you suggest and invest it in something more tangible....like orange juice vodka....or maybe the stock market.
What ever floats your boat man.
BJStanko
Well-Known Member
It is true that people have different hobbies.
Point of Blackjack and Card counting is to profit. Mathematically is proven that it can be done (these days very very hard), but profit is what we are seeking for in our hobby.
Card Counting would be pointless if we count just to count.
The healthiest outcome of our hobby (Blackjack) is profit, which means that we are good at what we are doing, and that hobby makes us happy. I haven't met a person that is happy when lose.
I do not have fun playing exclusively Basic Strategy and playing my hands according to it. There is nothing fun about it, absolutely nothing. Of course I stick to it , but it would be horrible without using card counting and of course winning. Losses of course make winning nights even sweeter but that is why I play this game.
We won't probably agree on this but we all have different opinions.
100 people 100 opinions!
P.S. I know guys I was exaggerating a little bit.
Do whatever makes you happy! Blackjack definitely makes me happy, but only when I win
Point of Blackjack and Card counting is to profit. Mathematically is proven that it can be done (these days very very hard), but profit is what we are seeking for in our hobby.
Card Counting would be pointless if we count just to count.
The healthiest outcome of our hobby (Blackjack) is profit, which means that we are good at what we are doing, and that hobby makes us happy. I haven't met a person that is happy when lose.
I do not have fun playing exclusively Basic Strategy and playing my hands according to it. There is nothing fun about it, absolutely nothing. Of course I stick to it , but it would be horrible without using card counting and of course winning. Losses of course make winning nights even sweeter but that is why I play this game.
We won't probably agree on this but we all have different opinions.
100 people 100 opinions!
P.S. I know guys I was exaggerating a little bit.
Do whatever makes you happy! Blackjack definitely makes me happy, but only when I win
lagavulin62
Well-Known Member
sure, the fact that the game can be beaten is the reason I play the game. I can't imagine ever playing again not counting or at least using basic strategy. still there are those who choose to sit down and try their luck blind, they may even call that "fun". that doesn't fit my definition of fun either, but I don't believe it's my place to expect them to adopt my view of it.
you make a good point about the swings going in either direction and that if you are skilled at counting you SHOULD come out a winner in the long run. but what is the long run? and when you are on one of those positive runs how long does that last? when you are having a losing streak how long does that last? does it ever end? mathematically it will but it's all relative as far as time goes. and how long before the average dollar amount "averages out"? I'm not saying throw the math to the wind, it's important, you do have to have some advantage but it is possible to get too fixated on the math. you get the breaks by being skilled and at the same time taking risks, and you do need a good bit of luck. to make this game profitable you have to respect the math and play like a gambler.
you make a good point about the swings going in either direction and that if you are skilled at counting you SHOULD come out a winner in the long run. but what is the long run? and when you are on one of those positive runs how long does that last? when you are having a losing streak how long does that last? does it ever end? mathematically it will but it's all relative as far as time goes. and how long before the average dollar amount "averages out"? I'm not saying throw the math to the wind, it's important, you do have to have some advantage but it is possible to get too fixated on the math. you get the breaks by being skilled and at the same time taking risks, and you do need a good bit of luck. to make this game profitable you have to respect the math and play like a gambler.
Can Anybody help me with any of the questions listed below
With an understanding of Basic Strategy, Hi-Lo Counting, and Illustrious 18, I was organizing myself to start going on weekend trips to Atlantic City, and not just once in a blue moon type vacations. I have everything down as far as correct play. My problem is with optimal betting. The minumum tables in Atlantic City are about $10. I have not yet learned the mathamatics of calculating SCORES, standard deviations ect. ect. but know my disadvantage will probly be around -0.60% for basic strategy. (six deck, A.C rules, pretty good penetration 70-85%--[closest thing available]).
I need advice on optimal spreads and bankrolls so my 4 and a half tiny questions are.
1) would a 1-8 Spread be enough to beat a six deck shoe? (10-80 dollars)
2) What is the suggested bankroll for 1-12 spread? (10-120$, will 6000-8000$ work well)) and is the following progression optimal for the bets:
TC +1< TC+2 TC+3 TC+4 TC+5>
10$ 30$ 60$ 90$ 120$
3) is it optimal to increase my bet on a TC of +1, or should I leave that at the minumum unit bet?
4) do you think if I only bet this way for 2 hours and rotate to the next casino that it will generate heat from the pit bosses/Casino servailance? or should I stay for a shorter/longer amount of time?
With an understanding of Basic Strategy, Hi-Lo Counting, and Illustrious 18, I was organizing myself to start going on weekend trips to Atlantic City, and not just once in a blue moon type vacations. I have everything down as far as correct play. My problem is with optimal betting. The minumum tables in Atlantic City are about $10. I have not yet learned the mathamatics of calculating SCORES, standard deviations ect. ect. but know my disadvantage will probly be around -0.60% for basic strategy. (six deck, A.C rules, pretty good penetration 70-85%--[closest thing available]).
I need advice on optimal spreads and bankrolls so my 4 and a half tiny questions are.
1) would a 1-8 Spread be enough to beat a six deck shoe? (10-80 dollars)
2) What is the suggested bankroll for 1-12 spread? (10-120$, will 6000-8000$ work well)) and is the following progression optimal for the bets:
TC +1< TC+2 TC+3 TC+4 TC+5>
10$ 30$ 60$ 90$ 120$
3) is it optimal to increase my bet on a TC of +1, or should I leave that at the minumum unit bet?
4) do you think if I only bet this way for 2 hours and rotate to the next casino that it will generate heat from the pit bosses/Casino servailance? or should I stay for a shorter/longer amount of time?
BJStanko
Well-Known Member
1) Your advantage should be 0.60% with 1-8 spread for AC Rules.
2) Bankroll: I always stick to not betting more than 1% of my entire bankroll on highest bet ( most of the time .0.8% or 0.7 %) High blood pressure runs in family , conservative strategy but safer. I prefer huge bankroll with conservative betting. Still makes lots of money but doesn't ruin your health.
So on 10-80 spread your highest bankroll should be about $8000 and a bit bigger. For 10-120 about 12000 and of course a little bit bigger if possible. Remember this is pretty conservative. You can use smaller bankroll but conservative betting is much safer.
3) Do not increase your bet on TC +1 stay at min.
4) 2 hours sounds right. If you feel heat developing pick up your chips and leave. I limit my time to about 1 hour and go to another place (still conservative ) But always remember that amount of money that you make playing blackjack depends also on how long you play. So you'll have to balance in between heat and money that you want to make.
GOOD LUCK
HAVE FUN
MAKE MONEY
2) Bankroll: I always stick to not betting more than 1% of my entire bankroll on highest bet ( most of the time .0.8% or 0.7 %) High blood pressure runs in family
, conservative strategy but safer. I prefer huge bankroll with conservative betting. Still makes lots of money but doesn't ruin your health.So on 10-80 spread your highest bankroll should be about $8000 and a bit bigger. For 10-120 about 12000 and of course a little bit bigger if possible. Remember this is pretty conservative. You can use smaller bankroll but conservative betting is much safer.
3) Do not increase your bet on TC +1 stay at min.
4) 2 hours sounds right. If you feel heat developing pick up your chips and leave. I limit my time to about 1 hour and go to another place (still conservative
) But always remember that amount of money that you make playing blackjack depends also on how long you play. So you'll have to balance in between heat and money that you want to make.GOOD LUCK
HAVE FUN
MAKE MONEY
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BJ Thanks for the input, but how would you utilize a 1-8 spread on a minimum 10 dollar table .
I would think:
tc=.. 2+.. 3+.. 4+ .. 5+<....
.....20$.. 40$.. 60$ .. 80$..
would be the logical answer but isn't the spread between minimum bet of 10$ to TC+2 of 20$ to narrow?
I was thinking maybe altering the bet spread 1-9 so:
TC 1>... TC 2 ... TC 3 ... tc 4 ... TC 5<...
10 .........30........ 50........70.........90$
but Im not to sure if this solution will help me at all....
Your probly right about not going at a 1-12 spread or 1-16 with 8000$ though.
I would think:
tc=.. 2+.. 3+.. 4+ .. 5+<....
.....20$.. 40$.. 60$ .. 80$..
would be the logical answer but isn't the spread between minimum bet of 10$ to TC+2 of 20$ to narrow?
I was thinking maybe altering the bet spread 1-9 so:
TC 1>... TC 2 ... TC 3 ... tc 4 ... TC 5<...
10 .........30........ 50........70.........90$
but Im not to sure if this solution will help me at all....
Your probly right about not going at a 1-12 spread or 1-16 with 8000$ though.
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Just to go back to the OP, Can anyone who does play blackjack for a living give us an average of how much they have made an hour. Sure there will be spikes, but lets just say ever since they have been confident with their strategy (obviously you will always be learning new things) What is the avg $/hour for that kind of person?
Mikeaber
Well-Known Member
imjustnew said:
I'm not a professional "ImJustNew" but I seriously doubt that it will be likely to get a definite $$ answer on that. A lot of variables involved. Main one is how large a bankroll are the players working with and how big are the bets. That will vary based upon conditions in the casino like min/max bets, heat, how long they are able to play....that sort of stuff and that doesn't even take into consideration variance.
150% of your highest bet per hour
According to the books I've read, written by proported professional counters, you can expect to win 150% of yous largest bet, per hour. The general suggestion is to never risk more that 1% of your total bankroll on a single hand. Therefore:
$100,000 bankroll, largest bet $1000, expected return $1,500 per hour
$10,000 $100 $150 per hour
$1,000 $10 $15 per hour
This rate of return is of course contingent upon perfect basic strategy for the specific game you are playing, most apropriate betting spreed based on a perfect count, and, the 18 or so basic strategy adjustments to make, based on a completely accurate count. Oh yes, in the long run, also.
Additionally, this answer is also contingent upon my accurate understanding of what I have read. It did sound plausible. Hope it's right.
According to the books I've read, written by proported professional counters, you can expect to win 150% of yous largest bet, per hour. The general suggestion is to never risk more that 1% of your total bankroll on a single hand. Therefore:
$100,000 bankroll, largest bet $1000, expected return $1,500 per hour
$10,000 $100 $150 per hour
$1,000 $10 $15 per hour
This rate of return is of course contingent upon perfect basic strategy for the specific game you are playing, most apropriate betting spreed based on a perfect count, and, the 18 or so basic strategy adjustments to make, based on a completely accurate count. Oh yes, in the long run, also.
Additionally, this answer is also contingent upon my accurate understanding of what I have read. It did sound plausible. Hope it's right.