what is your expected rate of return?

plainplayer

Active Member
Last evening, I went to a casino that's new to me, about 90 minutes' drive away. Enjoyed the time, signed up for their player's club and got a free meal, played some BJ and got a reasonable profit for the time I allotted to it. Chatted a lot with the dealer and one of the PBs, tipped a bit. Friendly, and nice because of it. Got to thinking about the bigger picture on the drive home.

I find I'm curious about the practical expectations of serious players. Up to this point, I've been using BJ as a way to make alternately some bill-paying money or a bit of fun money, and I've been at it for enough months now and have proven to myself that I have genuine understanding, so I'm wondering: Where do those who play BJ regularly/seriously/pick-an-adverb expect to find themselves in terms of rate of return?

I realize that some aren't willing to discuss numbers, either from a general sense of privacy or a concern for not making the extent of their profitability known. But it seems a reasonable guess (if only that) that some people would be willing to tell the more recently-involved among us what you really expect.

Would anyone care to offer straight-up numbers? How big a bank do you operate? How long did it take to build that bank? How much of it do you put into play on any given day (or weekend or week-long trip or ...)? I'm curious about both the serious amateur and the genuine professional; I'm debating with myself about where I should go with what I've learned to do. I've seen bankroll calculators on a couple BJ websites and, to be frank, some of the assumptions they've got look downright peculiar to me.
 

plainplayer

Active Member
Of course, maybe I should have looked around a bit more before asking. I just noticed matt21's sticky note in Card Counting, in which one of his own followups included his .xls of his results.

Interesting, informative. Not really what I expected. Such is life.
 

daddybo

Well-Known Member
I don't do it that way

I don't do a unit/dollar average by hour when evaluating games or playing for that matter. (Although you can extrapolate the numbers to arrive at an approximation of units/dollars per hour.)

I shoot for games where I can average 0.05 or better unit win per hand. The reason being I play different unit sizes for different games... and hands per hour vary greatly from game to game and even time of day. Not sure it makes that much difference.. its just how I do it.
 
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