What kind of spread do I need

[MetaEdge]

The nearest casino to me is a hour and a half drive. Costs me just over $30 for gas for the trip.

Weekdays they offer only 3 games. One is a CSM, one is 8 deck machine shuffle and 10 dollar min. The other is 5-500 6 deck hand shuffled. Weekend they offer a lot more 6 deck hand shuffled tables with a lower limit. In the party pit they also deal double down cards face down then reveal it after resolving the dealers hand. Kinda interesting.

No hole card, dealer's natural takes only original bet. ES10. No re-splitting aces. Double any two cards, DAS. Split up to 4 hands.

I'm not to concerned about getting barred therefore I'm willing to play as aggressively as possible.

I can also play heads up on the weekends, usually there is at least one table that's empty.

What kind of bankroll do I need to make this trip profitable, how many hours do I need to play, or should play. What should I spread?

I've only been playing for a few months, I've lost my last few sessions. I have practiced quite a bit though. Basic strategy is second nature to me now. Same with counting. I do make the odd mistake with counting though, so I still need some work with that. I've been practicing by dealing 7 spots, and paying them all out correctly, with two decks. That's all the cards I have from the casino. The ones I bought are slightly thinner so they mess up my deck estimation.

Deck estimation and true count conversion still needs some work.

 

[zengrifter]

Need to know average %pene. zg

 

[Shoofly]

I've been practicing by dealing 7 spots, and paying them all out correctly, with two decks. That's all the cards I have from the casino. The ones I bought are slightly thinner so they mess up my deck estimation.

Most casinos will sell you cards that have been used at the tables. That would make them the same size as at the tables. I recently bought cards for less than $1 per deck.

 

[MetaEdge]

Yeah, I just keep forgetting to grab some before I leave after a session.

Sorry, forgot about the pen. 1.5 decks. So 75% pen right?

 

[FLASH1296]

Crucial: Does the dealer Stand or Hit on SOFT 17 ?

What count do you use ?

Approximate size of your bankroll ?

 

[MetaEdge]

Geez, I forgot a lot of stuff. Sorry. It's Hit soft 17. I play using HiLo with about 20 indices. Lost my very small bankroll in the past couple sessions I played. I only had about $300. I'm going to save up till I have a real bankroll before I play again. I was hoping that this topic will let me figure out what size of a bankroll I would need to make this trip profitable.

 

[FLASH1296]

With equivalent penetration, the $5 Six Decker is the better game.

You are not looking to commute to a casino where your expectation is little more than minimum wage.

To make this game worthwhile, without learning a stronger count and more indices, you would do well to spread $5 to $120.

This is an aggressive 24−1 bet spread that may earn you between $15 and $18 per hour, on average, over the long run.

That is an optimistic figure as you have mentioned that have dubious skills at True Count determination, etc.

Those earnings figures are off the top of my head, but someone will verify them for us via simulation.

A "reasonable" (cash) bankroll for that game would be anything over $8,000

If you are willing to accept a Risk of Ruin that may approach 40% then you could cut that figure in half.

You cannot play this game with any advantage with just a couple of thousand dollars.

 

[The Suburbs]

With equivalent penetration, the $5 Six Decker is the better game.

You are not looking to commute to a casino where your expectation is little more than minimum wage.

To make this game worthwhile, without learning a stronger count and more indices, you would do well to spread $5 to $120.

This is an aggressive 24−1 bet spread that may earn you between $15 and $18 per hour, on average, over the long run.

That is an optimistic figure as you have mentioned that have dubious skills at True Count determination, etc.

Those earnings figures are off the top of my head, but someone will verify them for us via simulation.

A "reasonable" (cash) bankroll for that game would be anything over $8,000

If you are willing to accept a Risk of Ruin that may approach 40% then you could cut that figure in half.

You cannot play this game with any advantage with just a couple of thousand dollars.

I think a 24-1 spread is more than enough. That's probably good enough for a play-all strategy. If the OP doesn't care about being barred, why not just do some very aggressive wonging to avoid playing at a disadvantage at all?

Scout for the dealers with the best pen and then wong in at TC >= 2 and wong out at TC =< 1. $25 @ TC = 2, $75 @ TC = 3, $150 @ TC >= 4. Could be adjusted based on your BR.

Still, even with aggressive wonging, I don't think I'd play this game with less than $5,000 unless you were able to regularly replenish your BR.

 

[MetaEdge]

I figured it would be pretty costly if I wanted an advantage. What would be better, playing all headsup. Or wonging very aggressively with an average of 3 other players.

I would guess the second option, less variance that way anyways.

What would be my hourly rate if I played heads up with a smaller spread, like 1-12?

If I play the bigger 1-24 spread what should I set as a loss limit for the session? Probably about $800 right?

I'm guessing for the 1-24 spread I might bet something like $20 @ TC=2, $30 @ TC=3, $40 @ TC=4 ...

Probably change to two hands at TC>=2 and play 75% of the above bet spread per hand.

If I play this spread, with a bankroll of at least $8000. $800 per session. Wong in at a true of 2, wong out at a true of -1 to 1. What do you figure would be my hourly EV?

What would be too long of a session? Should I stop after 2 hours, or is it okay to play a little longer?

And I just asked a whole lot of questions. I should probably look into getting a simulator so I can answer a few of these questions myself xD

Thanks for all your help guys.

 

[Friendo]

If I play the bigger 1-24 spread what should I set as a loss limit for the session? Probably about $800 right?

There is a formula for this. Say your bankroll is $10000. Then your session loss limit is $10000.

In general, if S is session loss limit, and B is bankroll, then S = (1.00)*B.

 

[The Suburbs]

There is a formula for this. Say your bankroll is $10000. Then your session loss limit is $10000.

In general, if S is session loss limit, and B is bankroll, then S = (1.00)*B.

While I generally agree with this, it can be a little cumbersome to carry your whole bankroll around, especially if your bankroll is over $15-20k. Still, your whole AP career should be seen as one long single session.

Realistically, I'd say don't play at a table without at least 15-20 max bets on you. You want to be able to play through an entire shoe with max bets even if you're losing hand after hand of max bets. The worst thing you can do is be forced to leave a shoe while you have an advantage because you're tapped out.

Also, I'd imagine losing half or more of your bankroll in a single session could be jarring and put you on tilt. That is -EV.

 

[FLASH1296]

I purposely did not mention back-counting as this is a tiny casino. He will be barred in a jiffy if he "wongs-in" a few times.

While he doesn't fret getting 86'd — I guarantee you that he does NOT want to be shown the door on his first or second trip.

Like most beginners, he imagines that the money, that he so richly deserves, will be there for the taking - if he just adds and subtracts a few digits.

The important issue is, even if he gets his skills up to par, he is flirting with abject penury by thinking a thousand or two will suffice for this risky venture.

He will do better to open a roadside lemonade stand.

 

[assume_R]

There is a formula for this. Say your bankroll is $10000. Then your session loss limit is $10000.

In general, if S is session loss limit, and B is bankroll, then S = (1.00)*B.

Unless he decides to follow Kelly betting and resize his bankroll as he starts realizing more losses. So if he got to $5k, it would be mathematically correct for him to reduce his spread and wong more aggressively until he treads back up to $10k.

 

[Friendo]

Unless he decides to follow Kelly betting and resize his bankroll as he starts realizing more losses. So if he got to $5k, it would be mathematically correct for him to reduce his spread and wong more aggressively until he treads back up to $10k.

My answer assumes bet resizing, but I don't know why it would make any difference. Even with continuous Kelly re-sizing, we can still lose our bankrolls.

His session loss limit, to my mind, should still be his entire bankroll.

I don't believe in session loss limits. Sure, if you are rattled by a monster loss to the point that it affects, then go home. I have had a dealer fuss over me because I was donating quite heavily to the casino, so I left because I didn't want to be memorable to anyone there. That's the only other rational excuse for a session loss limit I can think of.

 

[zengrifter]

To make this game worthwhile, without learning a stronger count and more indices, you would do well to spread $5 to $120.

This is an aggressive 24−1 bet spread that may earn you between $15 and $18 per hour, on average, over the long run.

You can lower your spread to 10-2x60 (12-1), decrease your ROR and increase your EV if you avoid all -EV counts.
If you can do this you can treat the 6 and 8D games interchangeably, especially if the 8D has slightly better %pene. zg

 

[zengrifter]

What would be my hourly rate if I played heads up with a smaller spread, like 1-12?

That will not cut it in play-all, but if $60-70 is all the topBet that your BR can weather, than 1-7 is more than enough wonging.
Make the minBet wong-bet $10 and the topBet 1x70 or 2x50 or 3x40. zg

Ps - Spread is always calc'd from the topBet down, not from the minBet up.

 

[MetaEdge]

Alright, so I need to hold off till I can increase my bank roll, my game still needs some work anyways. I have a general idea of what I should be spreading to make the trip worth it in the long run. Now I need to save up so I have a better chance of lasting till the long run.

$4000 if I'm willing to replenish my bankroll. $8000 in order to have a reduced ROR. I like the idea of wonging aggressively. Though I'm not to sure if it's too suspicious to keep watching the table when I wong out and wong back in if the count goes back up.