When to take a walk.

biggamejames · May 29, 2007

I am a newbie here and i primarily play single and double deck. I never ever touch multi deck so all my experience is with those two.

I have recently taken up card counting and have been doing pretty well. (I just fled tunica this past saturday because of the crowds)

My question is about when to get up and leave a hot dealer. Most counters i know tend to be stubborn and assume that the odds will eventually turn in their favor. These past two weeks i have made more money than the last 4 months combined mostly because i have been hoping from table to table even more than i feel comfortable doing.

I do remember one dealer at one casino who would sling out all the high cards early in the deck and i was catching endless 20s and bjs at the very beginning of the shoe. I wasnt really losing but i just hate losing hands when i am holding 19s or 20s (the dealer was getting a fair share of the early high cards) And i was tired of moaning every time i got a bj and i only had 10 bucks up!!:flame: Anyways, i moved to another table and doubled my br in about an hour then left the casino. (i had met my days quota)

Then the other day i was playing at the gold strike casino and i had a dealer who just wouldnt bust. It was two of us playing him and we both had the count right and were upping our bets at the right time. We had nice positive counts almost every time. The guy next to me was in the hole 3k in less than 10 hands. I was up about 500 and was contemplating a walk. 5 hands later i lost my entire br while playing ridiculously positive counts.

Question is, how do you decide when to pick up your chips and find another table?

zengrifter · May 29, 2007

There is NO formula for quitting based on winning or losing. Scientific quitting is based on: TIRED? ERRODED CONDITIONS? HEAT? etc.

IF you lost your "entire BR" in a short period of time you were grosly over-betting. zg

biggamejames · May 29, 2007

zengrifter said:

Yes obviously i over bet. I blundered and figured that the count was incredibly positive which lined up with the outrageous streak the dealer was on with the earlier hands that i had survived with a a black jack and one or two double downs (still beating him by a point or two without him ever busting while the other player was cussing him out every hand)

But back to the question. Are you saying that if you sit at table, you will stay there no matter what until the tide turns?

Are you saying that you dont believe in the myth/fact of the "hot" dealer?

Are you saing that you have never walked away from a table because of another player whose moves were causing you to lose? (and please dont give me that speech about how other players actions really have nothing to do with your own play. That is only true if a person has a big enough bank role to suffer through dealer wins brought on by the stupidity of another player.)

TENNBEAR · May 29, 2007

biggamejames said:

But back to the question. Are you saying that if you sit at table, you will stay there no matter what until the tide turns?

Are you saying that you dont believe in the myth/fact of the "hot" dealer?

I stay and play, I will continue playing and betting properly gives you staying power, I have seen that bad run turn around and suddenly. Then I would be winning so many hands even my cover plays start kiking ass. I do leave when losses start to bother me and screw-up my concentration, but never because the dealer is catching some good cards. You need to go over to Fritzgeralds the next time your in tunica, best playing conditions are from 4:00AM to around 11:00AM ( Non Holiday weekends Only )

biggamejames · May 29, 2007

TENNBEAR said:

biggamejames said:

Tell me about it.. That Br i was talking about that i lost in 5 hands was on friday night around 8pm..(dont ask me what the hell i was doing in a casino at this time because i cant answer you.

) Whats worse yet, i know for a fact that i lose my largest amounts on friday and saturday evenings. (but i win my largest amounts early saturday morning and sunday morning, chasing losses from those nights.:grin: )

Same thing happened this past friday after 2 profitable days. I lost my profits from those two days, went to bed at 9pm friday on friggin memorial day weekend.

I woke up at 3 am and went and blitzed the casino for 4.5 gs.
slept for about 4 more hours and fled tunica disgusted with the crowds.:devil:

Ps..I was so glad there was a "guestimator"
sitting at third base that morning. The guy made like 17 gs (he hit like 7 double down hands in a row winning a total of about 800 each time)
I was shamelessly card counting and this guy gave me the best cover ever.:eyepatch:

EasyRhino · May 29, 2007

a) Did you know the other guy counting at the table? I usually don't find it pleasant to sit next to another card counter for any lengthy time.

b) The hot dealer is just luck, just like when you get a hot streak. Pay attention to conditions. The count is paramount, if it's negative, wong out, if it's positive, hang in there! Other very important conditions would be penetration, crowds, heat, dealer speed. And finally, whether or not you like the dealer.

Friday nights don't suck because they're unlucky. They suck because they're crowded.

biggamejames · May 29, 2007

EasyRhino said:

I know friday nights suck because of the crowds. Thats why i was embarrased to admit that i was playing bj for income on a friday night

..
I wont make that mistake again. Trust me.

About the other guy, sitting next to me, he was not a real counter. At least he was not doing it legitimately. I didnt know him but he was a solid
3rd base player and thats the only reason i stayed at the table after the player number swelled to 5.

I walked up to the table when he had a stack of about 2500. He was playing about 300 a hand. and his br dipped down to about 1g for a moment.

By the time i stacked up 1500, he had about the same amount he started with.(took about an hour because i was playing $25 a hand only because was winning at least 60% of the time on that table and i was progressive betting into positive counts with great results)

He would simply stack his chips as soon as a significant number of chips came out of the deck. Then one time he put up a stack of 4 black chips and he got a double down hand which he hit and won. He got about 7 more of these double downs and won all of them. An hour later he owned pretty much most of the purple from the tray and i had most of the black.
He was very helpful because after the first hour, the dealer quit calling "CHecks play" with the pit critters hovering like vultures.

We were trying to pass him chips to bet for us on his double down hands (jokingly of course because there was no way he was sharing his run.) By the second hour there were 5 of us at the table with me at first base and this guy at 3rd base.

One thing i have to mention, almost all the pit bosses at the casino i was playing that morning know me by my first name.:laugh: But lately they have been hovering a bit too much. (i do my best to throw them off with a martingale progression every now and then or even pretending to be absent minded and taking a dealers bust card while talking to some one or getting my drink from a waitress.):laugh:

But we are moving away from the question at hand.

Are you guys saying you never get up and leave a table? Especially games which are hand shuffled?

Because i have seen dealers who can shuffle out right disgusting crap out of a deck shoe after shoe after shoe!!! There is no way i am staying at a table where i can spot an obvious bad pattern in the dealers shuffle especially when all the big cards are coming out right off the bat when my bet is low.

I cant even sit at a table with a 3rd base player who waffles on hitting 16 and i will get up leave..(Actually there is a huge number of reasons that will cause me to leave a table. But if i like my spot enough, i will clear out the table by splitting faces and outright taking dealer bust cards while playing table minimums. Before you ask, yes i do set aside a portion of my BR for this very purpose. And i have had a pit boss say to my face "So you cleared out the table huh" and giggled while walking away.

Sonny · May 29, 2007

biggamejames said:

Nope. As a card counter I know when the tide has turned. I know exactly when I have the advantage and when I don’t. As long as I have an advantage I will sit and play. When my advantage is gone I will get up and leave. It might be because the new dealer is giving bad penetration, or I’m getting too much heat, or the table is too crowded, or the count is too far negative. It’s that simple.

biggamejames said:

Not at all. That’s just superstitious. The dealer deals the cards, that’s all. I’m more concerned about the deck. If the deck is hot, I’ll play. Otherwise, I’ll think about leaving.

biggamejames said:

Nope. That’s another superstition. The other players at the table do not affect you in the long run. Their stupid plays will help you just as often as they hurt you.

-Sonny-

zengrifter · May 29, 2007

The important thing in his post was...
THE OVER-BETTING!!! zg

EasyRhino · May 29, 2007

james, you bring up a good point, if you suspect that you have a cheating dealer, a "mechanic", then that would be the number one reason to leave the table, even over a bad count.

But, you know, it's pretty rare, and even more rare that you'd actually be able to spot it.

ihate17 · May 29, 2007

Other players, turning tide, hot dealers

Bordering on a voodoo post.
Other players who make wacky moves:
These guys can be the best thing that ever happened when an AP wonders into a over crowded casino. This guy can do your dirty work for you and run off the other players, perhaps just leaving the two of you to share the table with the dealer. Since his plays will hurt him but help you as often as hurt you, he is actually benefical in that he is capable of thining out the table.

The table or the shoe was good and now it must have changed:
This certainly sounds like the Mystical Magical Mysterious Sacred Flow of the Cards. The only kind of tide turns that make any sense is when you feel the heat, the count has gone down, or conditions like penetration change.

Hot dealers:
If we are talking about how some dealers look, then there are certainly some hot dealers. Otherwise, dealers are just pulling the next card out of the shoe or off the top of the deck (if not the top, then you just may have this second type of hot dealer). Just like a player who goes into a streak, dealers have both winning and losing streaks all the time. Just like your winning streaks, you do not know when one will begin, you do know that you are in one but have no clue when it end. The so called hot dealer can also be benifical in the same way that the bad player can. If it is a case of the dealer consistantly pulling multi-hand 21,s, the count may be rising while the dealer is thining out the number of players. Since you make your money when this high count starts coming down, you will get more rounds in this situation since the so called, hot dealer has chased some of your competition for those cards away and a "hot dealer" can become a cold one at any momment.

ihate17

biggamejames · May 31, 2007

ihate17 said:

I may be a confessed noob but this sounds like really bad advice. I would not expect long term members of a card counting forum to post such ill concieved notions that are both dangerous and other wise needless.

This idea of a bad player hurting you as much as he helps only works if you have some infinite bank roll.
I greatly disagree with this notion because you cant even predict which plays the bad player will hurt you on. The guy could run you dry very fast if he mostly helps you win when betting low and costs you wins when betting high.

Most of the grandfathered posters on this forum say that AP players do not like to gamble. How in the heck can you stand by that and then tell people they should take a gamble and hope that the wacky ploppy sitting next to them will only hurt them when they are betting low!!! Where is the logic in that?

Again if there is something i misunderstood about card counting then explain it to me. But playing with a wacky ploppy is something i will never do.

FUHGEDABOUDIT · May 31, 2007

Positive Progressive Betting System

Check Out Walter Thomasons' 21st Century Blackjack! He Advocates A Positive Progressive Betting System Which He Describes In His Book. He Employs A Quit Point System, If You Lose 4 Hands In A Row You Go To Another Table Or Wait For A New Shoe To Begin Then Start To Play Again. It Really Works!

FUHGEDABOUDIT · May 31, 2007

The Quit Point System

When Walter Used His Quit Point System (leaving The Table After 4 Consecutive Losses) His Ev Went Through The Roof.

biggamejames · May 31, 2007

FUHGEDABOUDIT said:

Would it be possible to summarize for us what he suggests one to do?

It would help me out (and i am guessing also help out a bunch of other new
card counters who have spent enough paying for resources)

I personally have an idea what to look for in a good game (eg, leaving early if i find a dealer that deals way too many negative/neutral decks, leaving if a dealer confesses that they have been hot and my consequent experience playing a few shoes with them confirms it. Call it voodoo blackjack, but i fail to see the logic in sitting through a dealer's hot streak yet you can find a table that is more agreeable to you) I dont even understand how a person can suggest that its a bad thing to walk away if a dealer is hot and in the same breath suggest wonging! Which is essentially the same thing only i dont return to the same table. I find another one completely.

I do strongly believe in taking breaks and walks if i dont like a shoe or series of shoes. It helps me greatly to gather my thoughts and focus and put my loss into perspective. I cant begin to tell you how many times i have lost bank rolls worth two or even 5 days of play because i went on tilt simply because i lost back that days profit. (If i had taken a walk in these cases, i would have refocussed and figured that i was even at that point and would not have needlessly pushed my units.)

I just want to bounce these issues of the pros heads and see if they have a routine they stick to. (and its just getting easier for me to withdraw from a game and either cash in or take a breather. Something which i wish i learned before even attempting one single BJ game)

Ps..Just so you know, after the 6 months of Bj i have played, i strongly believe that learning the art of "walking away" is perharps the most important lesson any bj player could master. Perharps even more important than learning to count down a deck in 30 seconds.

EasyRhino · May 31, 2007

Be very careful about leaving the table during a hot streak. In my experience, the surest way a dealer can clear a table is to get a series of long draws to ridiculous pat hands of 20 and 21. This may mean that more little cards than usual are coming out of the shoe. If you then find yourself at an empty table with a great count, you've just found yourself a nice little honey pot. And if you leave, you missed it.

biggamejames said:

You can't predict the plays that the psycho-ploppy can hurt you on, but you can't predict the ones he will help you on, either. Flip a coin, he's not going to affect your results any more randomly than if you were playing alone.

I'll confess, the logic to this argument makes more sense to me since I've experienced it first hand. To my right was one of the worst blackjack players I've been at a table with. He was hitting 17s vs a small dealer hand, standing on 5s, splitting everything except for 8s, he was just all over the map. It was awe inspiring. However, every single time he took a card (or didn't take a card), it ended up helping my hand tremendously (he would eat my bust card, or remove a little card that was waste my doubledown, etc). Unfortunately for me, he ran out of money very quickly (because he was so damn bad) and didn't hang out at the table long.

(And you know, I think there's a chance that a taking-too-many-cards ploppy would hurt a counter slightly compared to a not-taking-enough-cards ploppy, only because the uber-taker's actions would be deleterious at the times the player has a big bet out.) EDIT: but I don't think this is significant.

I also agree that knowing when to walk away is important. But it's the conditions that you can measure that matter, not lucky dealers. Leave the tables when the immediate conditions deteriorate. Leave the casino before you begin to overstay your welcome. That's what's important.

Canceler · May 31, 2007

biggamejames said:

Well, here's some logic, in this article by Fred Renzey: The Math Proves That Bad Blackjack Players Don't Hurt You

Here's a link to a bunch of articles written by Mr. Renzey: http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/Archives/
I recommend all the ones about blackjack. (If I knew anything about poker, I'd probably recommend those, too!)

ScottH · May 31, 2007

biggamejames said:

Most of the grandathered posters will tell you that it doesn't matter if the player next to you is good or a complete ploppy. Nobody else at the table no matter how they play can affect your EV.

Sonny · May 31, 2007

FUHGEDABOUDIT said:

It's already been checked out...and it's a losing system:

http://www.blackjack-scams.com/html/prog__systems.html

-Sonny-

biggamejames · May 31, 2007

EasyRhino said:

Be very careful about leaving the table during a hot streak. In my experience, the surest way a dealer can clear a table is to get a series of long draws to ridiculous pat hands of 20 and 21. This may mean that more little cards than usual are coming out of the shoe. If you then find yourself at an empty table with a great count, you've just found yourself a nice little honey pot. And if you leave, you missed it.

You can't predict the plays that the psycho-ploppy can hurt you on, but you can't predict the ones he will help you on, either. Flip a coin, he's not going to affect your results any more randomly than if you were playing alone.

.

will first read other responses...then post my retort

When to take a walk.

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