When to take a walk.

[shadroch]

I was in downtown Las Vegas last night when I saw a dealer do something I'd never seen before.She pulled back to back 7 card 21s. The second one came while several players also had live multicard hands.The two tourist couples playing with me got up and left in disgust leaving me playing the last half of a plus 12 Double Deck shoe by myself.
Most newbies flee from such events just as the count become a monster in their favor.

 

[biggamejames]

I was in downtown Las Vegas last night when I saw a dealer do something I'd never seen before.She pulled back to back 7 card 21s. The second one came while several players also had live multicard hands.The two tourist couples playing with me got up and left in disgust leaving me playing the last half of a plus 12 Double Deck shoe by myself.
Most newbies flee from such events just as the count become a monster in their favor.

i am not that kind of newbie...I actually started counting cards without really knowing it. I just have a good memory of visual things like card faces and i have done some what crazy things like doubling on a hard 12 and 13 full well knowing most of the big cards were out.

Any one who has watched those ubiquitour MIT card counting documentaries knows that small cards out= up your bet....big cards out=we a f@CKED:grin:

I did this with much success and i am now refining it since i have found that its not that hard to keep an actual count.

 

[biggamejames]

Well, here's some logic, in this article by Fred Renzey: The Math Proves That Bad Blackjack Players Don't Hurt You

Here's a link to a bunch of articles written by Mr. Renzey: http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/Archives/
I recommend all the ones about blackjack. (If I knew anything about poker, I'd probably recommend those, too!)

Maybe i misunderstood that example..I still think its a bad one that does not take into account the fact that you have a limited bankroll.

And just like those who suggest using progressive systems, it tends to assume that the mathematical probabilities will stay true.


That scenario can arise several times when you are playing and its indeed possible for 3rd base to take a dealers bust card several times consecutively.
Say the count was high each and every time he did this, throw in a few double down hands, splits and doubles after splits during a high count and your bank roll would take a huge hit.

Fine the mathematics holds that a correction is due that will help you win back your losses, but then guess what, here comes the cut card, its time to shuffle and the unplayed cards that would have given you the correction are now down the toilet along with the rest of this unbalanced equation.


Believing that math is about the same as believing in progressive system.
while the mathematics is somewhat true, it does not account for such issue.

I still will hold firmly to my belief that you are better off completely avoiding unnecessary unknowns. As IHATE17 said, you cant predict if a ploppy's play will hurt you or help you. Apparently its like flipping a coin. Well here is the thing, i am learning to count cards just so that i can win at the game on my own. I dont need the help of a wacky ploppy to win if i learn to do whats right. If you all hold a person can win at blackjack by counting cards. He does not need outside help! The question still stands why should this person accept an unknown quantity that might help or hurt him.

If i am going to win, i dont want a ploppy to help me win because i am going to win anyway right? And if i am going to win i sure as hell dont need to ploppy to ruin my plays but spoiling the count and taking the dealer's bust card.

The key here is that the ploppy is not necessary to achieve your goal. But his inclusion has one negative aspect that has a 50% chance of hurting you.
Why bother with the ploppy in the first place?

 

[EasyRhino]

But again, the variance of a BJ game with a ploppy is no greater than the variance of a game all alone.

If you have a bankroll that can survive normal BJ variance, then it can also survive ploppies. If the bankroll is not large enough to survive... then it just isn't.

 

[shadroch]

If he has a 50% chance of hurting you and a 50% chance of helping you,then he has zero effect on you. But having someone misplay his hands can cause other players to vacate the table leaving you with more hands to play out of each shoe.
As a counter,you'll be betting less in bad counts,and more in good counts so the more hands you get to play,the better for you.

Until you understand that there is no such thing as "the dealers bust card",you have as much chance succeeding in making money long term as democracy in Iraq does.I wouldn't be knocking ploppy play just yet,as you still seem to be subscribing to ploppdoms biggest myth.

The people that have been responding to you are ,for the most part,extremly experianced and can be quite helpful.But if you continue to argue stupid fallacys,you'll end up being ignored.It sounds like you are here to learn,not to argue, so I suggest you forget everything you think you know,and take advantage of the boards collective wisdom.

 

[biggamejames]

If he has a 50% chance of hurting you and a 50% chance of helping you,then he has zero effect on you. .

May be this is the part you need to elaborate.

Like some one else said, its like flipping a coin. You will either get heads or tails.
50% of the time he will help you..Thats ok. I get that. Fifty percent of the time he will hurt you.. From what you say one of the two will happen.

In a game of black jack that can easily translate to winning 5 hands and losing 5 hands.. If you start out losing 5 hands, thats five less units you have to play with. And after you win the next 5 hands, you are still at square one.

It could also easily translate to winning 5 low bet hands and losing 5 high bet counts.

This is how i understand it when you say its fifty fifty chance of him helping or hurting you.

Now if you or any body else would like to elaborate on that particular point please feel free to do so.

If you tire of my argumentative method. Please do not feel compelled to reply.
Trust me, this is an issue i will lose no sleep over if i am wrong because avoiding ploppies altogether is not something you are yet to prove will hurt. You mostly seem to imply it has no effect. So i dont see what i have to lose by completely avoiding it.:joker:

 

[ScottH]

So i dont see what i have to lose by completely avoiding it.:joker:

The only thing you have to lose is that you will have less options. What if a ploppy is sitting at the table of a great game? You'll have to avoid, but me... I'm sitting right down!

 

[biggamejames]

The only thing you have to lose is that you will have less options. What if a ploppy is sitting at the table of a great game? You'll have to avoid, but me... I'm sitting right down!

Wait one second....Are you now saying the game is now great independent of who/how they are playing? Isnt the game good because of how you play the cards, hitting at the right time, staying at the right time, raising and lowering your bets when the count calls for it?

Arent you now advocating for that so called "voodoo lucky dealer" or great game concept as you would call it?

if get up and move to another table are you implying that the game there wont be "great"

 

[ScottH]

Wait one second....Are you now saying the game is now great independent of who/how they are playing? Isnt the game good because of how you play the cards, hitting at the right time, staying at the right time, raising and lowering your bets when the count calls for it?

Arent you now advocating for that so called "voodoo lucky dealer" or great game concept as you would call it?

if get up and move to another table are you implying that the game there wont be "great"

You're at a site about advantage play but you really don't know anything about it.

There are a lot of things that can make a game great that have nothing to do with how you play or bet. Good rules, few players, good penetration, etc. But you probably don't care about all these good things since you won't play it because there is a ploppy at the table there to mess all of those up for you... :laugh:

 

[shadroch]

A table is great because the count is great.If you are standing up counting a table and the count goes way positive,I don't care if the third basemen just stood on a pair of twos. How anybody is hitting or betting is a non-factor.If there is an empty seat,I'm joining the game.

 

[biggamejames]

A table is great because the count is great..

Thankyou for making my point.

And since the ploppy has nothing to do with the count, i dont see why i have to play with him.:laugh: So i will find the table, then count the cards and bump up my play without having to think about the ploppy.:grin:

 

[shadroch]

You say play without thinking about the ploppy. We say ignore the ploppy because it has no effect.As it has no effect,why would you avoid it. That makes no sense.But neither does almost everything you are posting,so why should this be any different.

 

[Brock Windsor]

Ploppy Luv

I'm of the opinion it is always better to have crazy ploppies at the table. My theory (though not mathematically tested) is that typical ploppies take fewer cards than a perfect BS player. They are more likely to stand on stiffs (especially soft 18), and double-down when they should hit. The splits I would guess go down the middle... By taking fewer cards you are more likely to get an extra hand in a positive count. Conversely they will take fewer cards in negative counts but counters should be on a bathroom break during those times anyways or at least flat betting. I find it's profitable to befriend them, you'll have more fun and the big plus they will often let you buy their insurance if you want it or go partners on profitable splits and doubles. My favourite ploppy was playing two spots table max at a Spanish 21 game I was hole carding. He wanted to play my 'dealer match' sucker bet so I always reply "sure, so long as I can play your insurance once in a while". I was just salavating every time the dealer had a first card ace but he never had a blackjack before the ploppy busted out.
For my two cents, I believe a ploppy in theory can hurt you if he takes extra cards that cause a shuffle in good counts, HOWEVER.. I believe in practice he is much more likely to help you by taking fewer cards, playing the negative shoes, and allowing scavenger plays.

 

[EasyRhino]

Brock, I'd tend to agree that the more "typical" ploppy doesn't take as many cards as a BS player. You usually don't see too many wild-ass-cardtakers.

And sometimes it is a little distracting to see a ploppy doing amazingly stupid ****. But usually in an amusing way.

bigjimmyjames, it may seem like we're ragging on you a little bit, but it's only because there are two interrelated epiphanies that can really help out your play that we're trying to get across:

1) It's very useful to not worry about other players' play when you're at the table. You don't get stressed. You don't get distracted. You can focus on your betting, your playing, and your camo.

I've seen my stepdad (a slot ploppy) at the blackjack table. He gets too worked up about, well, everything, to ever have a shot of card counting.

2) It's also very important to be aware of the "conditions" at the table, that can have a potential impact on your play. And to know which ones matter and which don't. I'll confess, when I first started counting, all I did was find a table with an open spot and sit down, I was fairly oblivious. However, there's all sorts of things that you can pay attention to that will have an effect on your long-term results:
1) the count
2) penetration
3) table limits
4) crowd at table
5) speed of table
6) position of floorman
7) relative action at table
8) relative action in pit
9) how good-looking the dealer is

... etc.

Let's go back to your "coin-flip" example, where you have a random stretch of 10 hands that you're playing. If you sit down, and play alone, you might win 5 and lose 5 (or win or lose more). If a ploppy sits down, then you still might win 5 and lose 5. It probably would be winning and losing a different 5, but still the same number. And of course, during that 10 hands, you might get lucky or unlucky and win more or less with the ploppy than you would alone. But again, it's unknowable, and has no net effect over the long term, so why stress about it?

 

[Mimosine]

A table is great because the count is great.If you are standing up counting a table and the count goes way positive,I don't care if the third basemen just stood on a pair of twos. How anybody is hitting or betting is a non-factor.If there is an empty seat,I'm joining the game.

and so am I. and i'll be the crazy goon high fiving you while i split 10s and you double down on your A,8 v 5. look for me!

i only hope that my level of play can scare off other people from the table some day. so that I can have more seats to myself in those high counts.

if you are even the slightest bit interested/worried/concerned about how other people at the table are playing, then you will never have a real edge.

ploppy logic, like progressions isn't +EV. and honestly, others people play at a table affects neither your bankroll nor your varriance. think about it....

i've sat down at heads up games and lost 9 hands in a row playing perfectly. with the worst or best player in the world (short of a steerer) sitting with me, there is no guarantee whatsoever that it would have turned out any differently. standard deviation and varriance are mathematical results based on a set of rules at a specific game. there is nothing you can do, short of AP to change where you will come out under these constraints. if you're hunting for a table with no crazy players, that is good for me as far as i'm concerned, since there will be more seats for me at the tables you are too afraid of.

 

[FUHGEDABOUDIT]

All I Can Tell You Is This......................

I Use Walter Thomasons' Positive Progression With Quit Points And I Consistantly Win. I Change Tables After 4 Losses And I Leave The Casino(my Idea Not Thomasons) When I Increase My Bankroll By 50%.
I Don't Pretend To Be As Smart As You Guys What With The Math And All But I Tell You It Works Because I Just Win Alot.

 

[Xenophon]

You usually don't see too many wild-ass-cardtakers.

:laugh:

 

[jee_pack]

May be this is the part you need to elaborate.

Like some one else said, its like flipping a coin. You will either get heads or tails.
50% of the time he will help you..Thats ok. I get that. Fifty percent of the time he will hurt you.. From what you say one of the two will happen.

In a game of black jack that can easily translate to winning 5 hands and losing 5 hands.. If you start out losing 5 hands, thats five less units you have to play with. And after you win the next 5 hands, you are still at square one.

It could also easily translate to winning 5 low bet hands and losing 5 high bet counts.

This is how i understand it when you say its fifty fifty chance of him helping or hurting you.

Now if you or any body else would like to elaborate on that particular point please feel free to do so.

If you tire of my argumentative method. Please do not feel compelled to reply.
Trust me, this is an issue i will lose no sleep over if i am wrong because avoiding ploppies altogether is not something you are yet to prove will hurt. You mostly seem to imply it has no effect. So i dont see what i have to lose by completely avoiding it.:joker:

Picture it this way, instead of looking at the shoe as a bunch of cards in a certain order, look at it as 1 card (the next card coming out) and the odds that any card may be the next card are all equal (just think of the cards as a peice of carton paper). So if a ploppy decides to take a card when he shouldn't, all this means is that the card the dealer will receive will be the next card after this ploppy's card. So now this means you are looking at 2 possible card the dealer can receive, now take these 2 cards and hold them in your 2 hands, one in each. Picture your self looking at the dealer and saying: "what hand do you want". And then the dealer chooses one of the cards and it becomes his card. This is were the 50% 50% thing comes from, lets say 1 of the 2 cards was busting the dealer and the other card gave him 21, well you have 50% chance that he chooses the bust card and a 50% chance that he chooses the card that gives him 21. Well this choice where the dealer had to choose between your left and right hand. That is the same choice the ploppy is making, take a card or not take a card. And no matter what he chooses, if the 2 next cards in the shoe contained 1 bust card and 1 21 card, there's a 50% chance that the ploppy will draw a card making the dealer get 21 and there is a 50% chance that the ploppy taking a card will make the dealer bust.... That's all, in essence, what it means is that since you can never predict the next card that is coming out, ploppys can do whatever they want, and it does't not affect your odds of winning.

hope this helps,
jee

 

[ihate17]

I still will hold firmly to my belief that you are better off completely avoiding unnecessary unknowns. As IHATE17 said, you cant predict if a ploppy's play will hurt you or help you. Apparently its like flipping a coin. Well here is the thing, i am learning to count cards just so that i can win at the game on my own. I dont need the help of a wacky ploppy to win if i learn to do whats right. If you all hold a person can win at blackjack by counting cards. He does not need outside help! The question still stands why should this person accept an unknown quantity that might help or hurt him.

If i am going to win, i dont want a ploppy to help me win because i am going to win anyway right? And if i am going to win i sure as hell dont need to ploppy to ruin my plays but spoiling the count and taking the dealer's bust card.

The key here is that the ploppy is not necessary to achieve your goal. But his inclusion has one negative aspect that has a 50% chance of hurting you.
Why bother with the ploppy in the first place?

Your answer is perfect if you can always play heads up, but you can not.
What I should have added in my original post is that perfect play by a basic strategy player and perfect play by a cardcounter at your table will also help you as often as hurt you. It is as simple as this example. The guy at third base has 12 vs dealer 3 and the next two cards are an 8 and a 10 but you do not know which card is first. If the 10 is first, he hits you lose, he stays you win. If the 8 is first he hits you win, he stays you lose. He is waiting for your advice, what should he do? No problem if you know the next card out of the shoe but you generally will not have this information. Basically, there is no truth in the myth of "taking the dealers bust card." Sure he might one hand and perhaps save you the next, you only know after the hand is dealt out and perhaps have to wait to the start of the next round.
If you just play basic strategy, the same people who scream about the dealers bust card, will continously scream at you, it is guaranteed. Double A,7 vs 3-6, hit A,7 vs 9,10,A, split 9,9, hit 12 vs 3, and if the result is the dealer taking everyone's bet, your correct play will be highly questioned by those same ploppies that you question.

Now the bad player who takes extra hits in a good count hurts you by eating cards because he cuts the number of rounds but that is it.

There are good books to teach count and other techniques, but for someone who has played some blackjack and has become trapped by the superstitions that revolve around blackjack, I suggest reading another book before reading a counting book. This book was designed for a person who has learned some of the wrong things from 99%+ of the blackjack players out there and now needs to clear them from his mind before he can move to advantage play. It is by Eliot Jacobson and called "The Blackjack Zone."

ihate17

 

[jee_pack]

I find this side of blackjack very interesting. The dealer's "bust card" is the biggest myth in blackjack but still, I have talked about this with someone that has played a lot of blackjack in their lifes, you will always have people that beleive in the dealer's bust card myth and some who don't... And it is normal! After all, the casino's were invented to exploit the "superstitious" side of human nature. If you start explaining the logic of the Bust Card Myth to those 99%+ players, you might as well tell them to not go to the casino. The first time I tryed a blackjack simulator, I kept looking at the cards, hoping the next card would make me win. Now I just play b-s in a robotic way, I don't even look at if I won or if I lost, I just look at the count and hit "rebet". Cuse it seems that the more you fall on the superstitious side, the more you make improper moves that cut down on your edge... anyway, that's my 2 cents on superstitions