Which is more profitable, poker or blackjack?

[Thunder]

In an effort to see which truly is more profitable, I've decided I'm going to post my poker earnings, starting from now where I think I'm more likely to encounter fishes since it's the summer. I feel I would make a decent comparison study between BJ and poker since I'm an AP in both. We already know that a good return in BJ per hand is 1%-1.5% of your average bet assuming you're only using straight counting. My hypothesis is that poker is the more profitable game (even with a 10% rake) for the AP and requires a smaller bankroll. (I've started with a $600 bankroll)

I've included the total # of hours played, as well as the # of trips.

The poker games will mostly be 1/2 NL Texas Hold 'em with maybe some 1/3 here and there. The games will be live games and on average will have 9 players including myself.

 

[CasinoBlackjack]

How can one classify themselves as an AP in Poker?

 

[wwcd]

In general, without even looking at the numbers, it makes sense. Because house has several ways to protect their games, while the individual idiots at poker tables have no clue. They will eventually lose all their money to better players, without even knowing it.

If you are a really good poker player, why bother with the huge bankroll requirements, constant cat-mouse game with the house, and depressive negative variances on blackjack?

Some people might find it morally disturbing to take individuals' money instead of the casinos' money, however in the latter one, they are exactly doing the same, only indirectly So, there shouldn't be any moral issues as long as a person is fine with AP in blackjack.

I'll let the experts comment on the numbers piece, but just wanted to throw in my 2c worth common sense.

 

[SleightOfHand]

Lets say that you play at a level where having 20 buy-ins is enough to have a comfortable RoR. This means that with a 6k BR, you can play 300NL. As an average winning player, lets say you can make 3 bb/100. Thats $9/100 hands.

I also did a quick and dirty analysis of playing a 6k BR at a strong H17 DAS RSA 1.5/2 game, which is pretty much a best case scenario for a small stakes player in Vegas. Better games are in fact available, but I think this game with a 10k N0, which you wouldn't be able to play as consistently as poker due to heat and trying to limit exposer. Spreading 10-75, there is a WR of ~$33.50/hr. Spreading 5-50, there is a WR of ~$29/hr. Spreading 5-75, there is a WR of ~$38/hr.

In order for poker to be equal to the best BJ scenario, the poker player needs to play ~420 hands/hr. My experience shows around 55-60 hands/hr per online table. This means you have to play around 7 tables at a time, which is doable.

There are also other factors to consider for both sides. Poker involves things like tilt and internet connection (if you get dropped often, you play less and lose free hands of play), while BJ involves things like travel time, travel cost, and heat.

 

[Thunder]

How can one classify themselves as an AP in Poker?

It means you consistently play poker for a profit.

 

[Thunder]

Lets say that you play at a level where having 20 buy-ins is enough to have a comfortable RoR. This means that with a 6k BR, you can play 300NL. As an average winning player, lets say you can make 3 bb/100. Thats $9/100 hands.

I also did a quick and dirty analysis of playing a 6k BR at a strong H17 DAS RSA 1.5/2 game, which is pretty much a best case scenario for a small stakes player in Vegas. Better games are in fact available, but I think this game with a 10k N0, which you wouldn't be able to play as consistently as poker due to heat and trying to limit exposer. Spreading 10-75, there is a WR of ~$33.50/hr. Spreading 5-50, there is a WR of ~$29/hr. Spreading 5-75, there is a WR of ~$38/hr.

In order for poker to be equal to the best BJ scenario, the poker player needs to play ~420 hands/hr. My experience shows around 55-60 hands/hr per online table. This means you have to play around 7 tables at a time, which is doable.

There are also other factors to consider for both sides. Poker involves things like tilt and internet connection (if you get dropped often, you play less and lose free hands of play), while BJ involves things like travel time, travel cost, and heat.

Umm Sleight, when you say 300NL don't you mean 150/300 NL? If so, you'd need far more than 6K for 20 buyins. Online Poker is a totally different animal. I was talking about live poker.

 

[Sucker]

How can one classify themselves as an AP in Poker?

AP stands for "Advantage Player". Anyone who plays at an advantage is classified as an Advantage Player, no matter WHAT the game.

 

[SleightOfHand]

Umm Sleight, when you say 300NL don't you mean 150/300 NL? If so, you'd need far more than 6K for 20 buyins. Online Poker is a totally different animal. I was talking about live poker.

When referring to online poker games, xNL is the way we call the stakes of the game, where x is the max buy-in (referring to a standard table, where the max buy-in is 100 blinds). However, I just realized that there is no 300NL on Poker Stars, but yea, thats what I meant by 300NL.

I agree that talking about live poker is different, and imo makes poker a worse game WR wise. I played some live 1/2 NLHE a few times and where I played, it was extremely soft. I don't know what kind of figures are typical, but I expect that I, a novice online poker player, can obtain WRs somewhere around 10-15 bb/100, maybe even more.

The problem with live play that it is extremely slow, somewhere around 30 hands/hr from what I remember hearing. At 12 bb/100, that means making a little more than $7/hr. Playing 1/3 NLHE with the same WR gives us almost $11/hr, which may be marginally higher because of the $1 SB.

The problem with live play is the speed. You are probably able to obtain advantages better than CC, but its just so damn slow, it may not be better in $ terms. Once the BR gets to much larger levels, poker may start becoming a better option because of issues like heat.

 

[Jack_Black]

Once the BR gets to much larger levels, poker may start becoming a better option because of issues like heat.

So we've heard from the mathematical aspect the differences between poker and 21. Now let's talk pragmatics. Playing poker with bigger blinds is extremely tough. The level of the competition raises almost exponentially as the BB goes up. Now with BJ, raising bet sizes doesn't mean you have to be a better player, and it doesn't necessarily mean more heat. sometimes, it means more red carpet as long as they think you are big loser. Not to mention that comps are much better as a bj player than as a poker player.

choose a path. either one is going to be extremely hard. I will say that I think poker might be slightly easier because sometimes you are playing against the same ploppies that the casinos play against. but I get more thrill knowing that I am taking on a giant like a casino and beating them.

 

[psyduck]

So we've heard from the mathematical aspect the differences between poker and 21. Now let's talk pragmatics. Playing poker with bigger blinds is extremely tough. The level of the competition raises almost exponentially as the BB goes up. Now with BJ, raising bet sizes doesn't mean you have to be a better player, and it doesn't necessarily mean more heat. sometimes, it means more red carpet as long as they think you are big loser. Not to mention that comps are much better as a bj player than as a poker player.

choose a path. either one is going to be extremely hard. I will say that I think poker might be slightly easier because sometimes you are playing against the same ploppies that the casinos play against. but I get more thrill knowing that I am taking on a giant like a casino and beating them.

Hey Jack!

Where have you been? How is BJ treating you?

 

[Thunder]

I'd agree with you that once you have the bankroll to be playing BJ where your WR is above $50/hr, then BJ might be the better alternative unless you're a superstar in poker. The # of people who can play 2/5 NL poker and beyond profitably are very few and far between.

 

[CasinoBlackjack]

AP stands for "Advantage Player". Anyone who plays at an advantage is classified as an Advantage Player, no matter WHAT the game.

I understand what AP means. It's not really possible to be an AP in poker however, or at least for someone to classify themselves as one.

Poker is a +EV game to begin with so I guess I'm missing where the title fits.

 

[Thunder]

CasinoBlackJack, I think you must have been asleep or on drugs or something when you wrote that Poker is a +EV game to begin with. Think about that for a minute and let me know if you still think that it is a +EV game to begin with. :laugh:

 

[betbrett]

Poker played among friends is mathematically a break even game over the long run. That is if all friends had equal skill.

In the casino you face a mathematical disadvantage just like with BJ. It depends on the house rake which varies according to the stakes being played and the casino.

Poker is definitely not a +EV game by default.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...The problem with live play is the speed. You are probably able to obtain advantages better than CC, but its just so damn slow, it may not be better in $ terms. Once the BR gets to much larger levels, poker may start becoming a better option because of issues like heat.

The speed is a definite problem that is too often overlooked. There are baccarat sidebets that are beatable with a slightly higher advantage than BJ but good luck making any money at 10-20 hands per hour and the low table max on bacc sidebets.

Poker may be a low heat way for a guy with a big BR, and the rake is easier to deal with on the higher limit games but he is also going to have to deal with more skilled players. I do not like poker because I don't know what I'm coming up against at the table before it is too late. But even with someone like myself with basic poker skills, a poker AP isn't going to make any money off me because the rake is going to eat up whatever slight advantage he may have.

 

[aslan]

but I get more thrill knowing that I am taking on a giant like a casino and beating them.

Who really cares about the thrill derived? It's about the money.

I have for a long time believed that poker is a lower risk pursuit than BJ for the accomplished player. But getting one's game to highest level of proficiency is a lot harder than the average WSOP TV viewer and weekend warrior realizes. Still, there is an ever increasing number of pure ploppies joining the fray each day, thanks to that same TV. That is not to say that poker is necessarily the best financially speaking. I don't know how that pans out. My experience has been that it is easier to win a little at poker, relative to the stakes, than to win a lot, and that is based mainly on the "science" of winning poker. The level of competence in the "art" of poker usually necessary to win a large amount of money (relative to the stakes) does not grow on trees, and there is no mathematical formula that will accomplish it.

 

[aslan]

I do not like poker because I don't know what I'm coming up against at the table before it is too late.

I have poker friends who scout the tables much like a back counter, only they are looking for telltale signs of ploppy play. With basic poker skills you should not be too fearful of what you're up against, because just a basic knowledge of the right hands to play will generally keep you in good stead. Top pros can't "manufacture" hands. But think about BJ. When you start a session, you have no idea whether that first positive count will put you deep in the hole for the session, or catapult you into strong winning position. I'd rather take my chances against a poker table with at least a few ploppies than cast my lot against the vagaries of how the cards may run in any given session. That is not to say that I will not win more in the long run at Blackjack, but that depends largely on my level of proficiency in both games.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I have poker friends who scout the tables much like a back counter, only they are looking for telltale signs of ploppy play. With basic poker skills you should not be too fearful of what you're up against, because just a basic knowledge of the right hands to play will generally keep you in good stead. Top pros can't "manufacture" hands. But think about BJ. When you start a session, you have no idea whether that first positive count will put you deep in the hole for the session, or catapult you into strong winning position. I'd rather take my chances against a poker table with at least a few ploppies than cast my lot against the vagaries of how the cards may run in any given session. That is not to say that I will not win more in the long run at Blackjack, but that depends largely on my level of proficiency in both games.

Right, but a sufficiently skilled poker pro is going to see me watching, lure me in with some cheap ploppy play and then beat me. I have to assume any kind of AP is capable of doing anything I can do. In BJ even if the house figures me out the worst they can do is throw me out after the fact; unlike the poker pro they cannot legally change the rules or the conditions of play that would turn my game into a losing one.

 

[moo321]

The comparison is getting skewed here because we're using the wrong winrates for poker. If you're only winning 3 bb/100 in a live NL game, you either suck or you're at the wrong game.

You should be able to get at least double that, if not significantly more in live games. It seems like people are comparing to online games, where 3bb/100 is a decent winrate.

I've had long stretches winning 10+bb/100 in live games, and I won't even sit here and tell you I'm a fantastic no limit player. But the games were so soft, you could literally peddle the nuts and get paid off every time by clowns.

Also, I think 20 full buy-ins is a rather large bankroll for NL, probably comparable to 1% risk of ruin in blackjack.

 

[aslan]

Right, but a sufficiently skilled poker pro is going to see me watching, lure me in with some cheap ploppy play and then beat me. I have to assume any kind of AP is capable of doing anything I can do. In BJ even if the house figures me out the worst they can do is throw me out after the fact; unlike the poker pro they cannot legally change the rules or the conditions of play that would turn my game into a losing one.

Tells are an important part of poker, and setting up the opponent with an obvious ploppy play is a related stratagem. Still, mindful of this, you should be able to adequately defend yourself with simply knowing the value of your cards, and not falling for every bait dangled in front of you. I take it you don't fancy yourself as much of a poker player, which is the best reason not to change from bj where you know full well your advanced capabilities.