Who can run a sim for me
- Thread starter ZenKinG
- Start date
ZenKing. Of course flat betting lowers SCORE , CE, etc. But how much is you SCORE and CE if you can't play? KJ knows what he is talking about. The results will be volatile flat betting. But you will be allowed to play for a much longer time. $45/hour is a slave wage. Are the game really that bad in Vegas. My top bet is just over half that and I play some disadvantage counts and get well over $100/hour EV on 6 deck/1.5 cut off H17, DAS and a 10 spread. I do have some extra tricks in my arsenal. Are you playing 6:5 BJ?
His top bet appeared to be posted as 2x$500.
LOL. Nice try. I have seen two things come from sharing sensitive info. One the play gets burned. Two the person gets ridiculed by people that don't understand those kinds of things because the mockers always keep it simple. That makes their perspective based on just understanding what happens when you use a simple approach.
I don't see how you could get $45/hour with the spread he posted (see above quote), unless he was playing atrocious rules, or perhaps his system or approach is weak. I hear Vegas is going mostly 6:5. Most AP's will refuse to play it. Some specialize in playing 6:5. If he plays it without using an approach tailored to playing a 6:5 game then he would have terrible results.
LOL. Nice try. I have seen two things come from sharing sensitive info. One the play gets burned. Two the person gets ridiculed by people that don't understand those kinds of things because the mockers always keep it simple. That makes their perspective based on just understanding what happens when you use a simple approach.
I don't see how you could get $45/hour with the spread he posted (see above quote), unless he was playing atrocious rules, or perhaps his system or approach is weak. I hear Vegas is going mostly 6:5. Most AP's will refuse to play it. Some specialize in playing 6:5. If he plays it without using an approach tailored to playing a 6:5 game then he would have terrible results.
KJ, that 'arrogant' reply you speak of was only because of John's sarcastic reply. He was supporting your erroneous notion and so I called it what it was. It's not like I'm spreading 1-20 when wonging in, it's a measly 1-4 or 1-5 spread so you're still flying under the radar while improving all the metrics significantly.
My max bet in PA and shortly while I was in vegas until I went through a downturn was 2x250 NOT 2x500 and I for the most part only backcounted so I get in roughly 60 rounds per hour I would say on average. Although I get fewer rounds, my edge is also higher than most and is roughly 1.8% on average and sometimes as high as 2.8% depending on the penetration and rules. You and others seem to go by the industry standard of 100 rounds per hour and so you are comparing my win rate to a win rate 'per' 100 rounds which is misleading. You and others might get more rounds in per hour, but your edge is probably only around 1.2% give or take a few tenths of a percent, which ends up being much lower and having a more increased risk, lower SCORE and higher N-zero.
My win rate is per 60 rounds and all the metrics improve significantly through this backcounting approach. Of course at times, I do play heads up when it's slow and tables are empty, but I really try to only play an aggressive backcounting style game because although it's aggressive, it actually provides a bit of cover if you do it right. Pit bosses are droned out and told what to do and are provided a checklist, in which 'spread' is the biggest indicator of whether you're a counter and whether a countermeasure or backoff should proceed.
If you can backcount and sneak onto the table, especially if you bring chips with you and don't buy in, they might only see you spread 1-2 even though you spread 1-4 or 1-5, which regardless still wouldn't scare them because most pit bosses are taught you need at least a 1-12 or 1-16 for a shoe game. Even if they see you backcount or standing around looking suspicious, most pit bosses will be hesitant to call surveillance or take action on someone who only spread 1-4 and be looked at as a fool. Combine all of this with short sessions and you should last a long time until you run into a sharp boss, but that still doesn't mean anything, just give it 3 months or so and go back on a different shift.
I do think I have run badly and my win rate even though it's per 60 rounds on average, should be higher and was hoping someone can run a proper sim with all the details I have provided. When I run the sim on CVCX, the numbers come out really wrong and i dont know why. If I use the archived sims, it tells me I should be somewhere around the 50 an hour range, but if I check 'departure adjustment' the win rate soars to about 80 an hour, but people have said 'departure adjustment' is not that reliable.
So AGAIN, hopefully someone can help me out. My instincts tell me that my expected hourly throughout these 1100 hours is exactly what the archives sims 'without' the departure adjustment say it is and that's around 50-55 an hour, but who knows anymore.
My win rate is per 60 rounds and all the metrics improve significantly through this backcounting approach. Of course at times, I do play heads up when it's slow and tables are empty, but I really try to only play an aggressive backcounting style game because although it's aggressive, it actually provides a bit of cover if you do it right. Pit bosses are droned out and told what to do and are provided a checklist, in which 'spread' is the biggest indicator of whether you're a counter and whether a countermeasure or backoff should proceed.
If you can backcount and sneak onto the table, especially if you bring chips with you and don't buy in, they might only see you spread 1-2 even though you spread 1-4 or 1-5, which regardless still wouldn't scare them because most pit bosses are taught you need at least a 1-12 or 1-16 for a shoe game. Even if they see you backcount or standing around looking suspicious, most pit bosses will be hesitant to call surveillance or take action on someone who only spread 1-4 and be looked at as a fool. Combine all of this with short sessions and you should last a long time until you run into a sharp boss, but that still doesn't mean anything, just give it 3 months or so and go back on a different shift.
I do think I have run badly and my win rate even though it's per 60 rounds on average, should be higher and was hoping someone can run a proper sim with all the details I have provided. When I run the sim on CVCX, the numbers come out really wrong and i dont know why. If I use the archived sims, it tells me I should be somewhere around the 50 an hour range, but if I check 'departure adjustment' the win rate soars to about 80 an hour, but people have said 'departure adjustment' is not that reliable.
So AGAIN, hopefully someone can help me out. My instincts tell me that my expected hourly throughout these 1100 hours is exactly what the archives sims 'without' the departure adjustment say it is and that's around 50-55 an hour, but who knows anymore.
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There is a difference in optimizing these metrics and optimal play that includes longevity and cover. If your bankroll can withstand the bets withing your risk tolerance is the key statement.
If possible, I would bet optimally without a top bet but the conditions do not allow such. Therefore, we curtail an optimum ramp with a max bet at some TC.
Flat betting, if you can stand the variance, is a cover to improve longevity.
If possible, I would bet optimally without a top bet but the conditions do not allow such. Therefore, we curtail an optimum ramp with a max bet at some TC.
Flat betting, if you can stand the variance, is a cover to improve longevity.
Cover is so over-rated. That topic needs to die on these forums. All it does is cost people because they're beyond paranoid from reading all the garbage on these forums and have no real experience playing.
Short sessions is the only real cover you need. If you get made as a counter it will be because of you moving your money with the count after a tape review or in the moment and NOT because of how you play certain hands.
Back counting actually if done right is also the best cover you can do as well because if you do it right they will maybe see a maximum of a 1-3 spread and these droned out pit bosses are taught with a checklist of how to catch a counter and of which a huge spread is the biggest one. Playing heads up and all that bs about gettibg more rounds per hour is exactly that. You actually dont get more rounds per hour playing heads up and all it does is expose your spread to the pit boss and surveillance teams. Even if they got more rounds in per hour, they are playing at a reduced edge. All heads up does is give degenerates an excuse to get more action in because they think they're getting more rounds in per hour.
Combine short sessions, backcounting, and ratholing and it's almost impossible to get caught anytime soon. It would take not only a very sharp boss, but a sharp boss who has remembered your face, and a surveillance team that has been able to put together multiple tapes of your play throughout days, weeks, and months and come to a conclusion you're a threat because youre only playing maybe 1-2 shoes max per session; not to mention a sharp boss knowing how much you've been ratholing IF they even noticed you doing it. For all of that to happen for you to pegged is very low and you will get away with it.
NOW that's COVER.
Short sessions is the only real cover you need. If you get made as a counter it will be because of you moving your money with the count after a tape review or in the moment and NOT because of how you play certain hands.
Back counting actually if done right is also the best cover you can do as well because if you do it right they will maybe see a maximum of a 1-3 spread and these droned out pit bosses are taught with a checklist of how to catch a counter and of which a huge spread is the biggest one. Playing heads up and all that bs about gettibg more rounds per hour is exactly that. You actually dont get more rounds per hour playing heads up and all it does is expose your spread to the pit boss and surveillance teams. Even if they got more rounds in per hour, they are playing at a reduced edge. All heads up does is give degenerates an excuse to get more action in because they think they're getting more rounds in per hour.
Combine short sessions, backcounting, and ratholing and it's almost impossible to get caught anytime soon. It would take not only a very sharp boss, but a sharp boss who has remembered your face, and a surveillance team that has been able to put together multiple tapes of your play throughout days, weeks, and months and come to a conclusion you're a threat because youre only playing maybe 1-2 shoes max per session; not to mention a sharp boss knowing how much you've been ratholing IF they even noticed you doing it. For all of that to happen for you to pegged is very low and you will get away with it.
NOW that's COVER.
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I will address the backcounting being the best cover and forgo the rest since you clearly understand so little it would take to much posting to try to educate you and it is obvious from your posting across many forums that you can't be taught which is probably why you keep losing. And it is why you blame normal losing on being cheated. If you understood much about what you are doing you wouldn't make these comments. We all know you not understanding what you are doing is not because people haven't tried to educate you.
While your comment on the pit is right. The EITS surveillance doesn't look much at what is happening at the tables but do look vigilantly for backcounters. Back counting is dealt with zero tolerance by the casino. They treat it almost as severely as team play. You can't watch the EITS to know if they have a bead on you. It is not the best cover. It is the easiest way to force a trespass and or be entered into the the detective agencies book of known cheats and advantage players.
While your comment on the pit is right. The EITS surveillance doesn't look much at what is happening at the tables but do look vigilantly for backcounters. Back counting is dealt with zero tolerance by the casino. They treat it almost as severely as team play. You can't watch the EITS to know if they have a bead on you. It is not the best cover. It is the easiest way to force a trespass and or be entered into the the detective agencies book of known cheats and advantage players.
Why i keep losing? Tell me again how much Ive made again after how many hours? Go ahead and tell me how much real world blackjack experience you have. Then go ahead and tell me how many hours you have logged and how much you've made. You sound like the prototypical counter who is all theory from reading too many forums and books with no real experience. Then get back to me.
You address only the backcounting thing to 'try' and have an argument with me and simply ignore what I said before and after it. It's a 'combination' approach. Combine backcounting with short sessions and it's very hard to peg you. There's not many people in surveillance that you think due to cutting back on jobs by the casino, not to mention the people in surveillance are looking for more important things such as dealer theft, etc.
You address only the backcounting thing to 'try' and have an argument with me and simply ignore what I said before and after it. It's a 'combination' approach. Combine backcounting with short sessions and it's very hard to peg you. There's not many people in surveillance that you think due to cutting back on jobs by the casino, not to mention the people in surveillance are looking for more important things such as dealer theft, etc.
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I really don't think it is relevant as knowledge has nothing to do with profits but after being a recreational counter for decades I retired from my job and I have been a pro for many years and have earned over $250,000 in the last few years. The fact that I am a winning player doesn't mean I understand much of anything. You can win by just understanding money management and learning a formula to use at the table. That doesn't mean you understand anything. You really make a fool of yourself when you make assumptions.
The ones that are watching are tasked with spotting backcounters.
The ones that are watching are tasked with spotting backcounters.
You're the one who has made assumptions from the beginning. 250k in the last few years from counting alone? If so, you're just another fraud like all those fraud episodes on GWAE such as Joe and Yoshi to promote blackjack apprenticeship and the youtube podcast.
But i'll let you clear up your vague response cause maybe it involved other AP activities. If it did involve other AP activitied, i domt k ow why you even felt the need to mention that because qe're talking strictly counting here. But once again you must have felt the need to prove yourself on a completely different subject than what we're talking about.
But i'll let you clear up your vague response cause maybe it involved other AP activities. If it did involve other AP activitied, i domt k ow why you even felt the need to mention that because qe're talking strictly counting here. But once again you must have felt the need to prove yourself on a completely different subject than what we're talking about.
I actually took a lot of time off because I made a lot more than I needed and wanted to make sure to preserve longevity. I could have earned a lot more. I spent 2 years averaging about $200/hour and the third year my hourly and annual earnings were much less despite playing more hours. If I went balls out and played like it was a full time job I would have easily made over $500K in those three years. But greed kills an AP career. Once I learned that I cut back my play and made what I needed rather than try to win all I can. It isn't like I just started playing. I was counting cards when deeply dealt 3:2 SD BJ was the norm everywhere and AC opened its first casino. It wasn't until the last decade that I decided I would make it my primary income source and had to take it more seriously. In my life my AP winnings are in the millions. Almost every game in the casino can be beat if you know how. But many of them you are beating the casino system more than the game. You sound like you just took up counting cards 5 years ago and just wouldn't listen to anyone that tried to teach you anything. I can tell your retarded AP growth is due to never being mentored by a real pro. I was mentored by three of the best. You could spend a lifetime trying to teach yourself and only learn a tiny fraction of what a year of mentoring from the right teacher can teach you. With the way you just won't accept what virtually every pro tells you when you are wrong, I doubt anyone worth having as a mentor would take you on as a student. You would just refuse to accept any of their knowledge. It would be a waste of their time. When all the experienced pros tell you that you are wrong, you can be pretty damn sure you are wrong. But you keep defending a very wrong idea and showing you don't understand while at the same time saying you do.
Keep walking Tthree and keep using your multi parameter bullshit side counts. Take your phantom millions and go do a GWAE episode to broadcast your fake results along with Joe and Yoshi. You also dont even play regular 21, you play Spanish, which is completely different where side counts can be used more effectively, but you still completely overstate everything
