Dummy said:
His top bet appeared to be posted as 2x$500.
LOL. Nice try. I have seen two things come from sharing sensitive info. One the play gets burned. Two the person gets ridiculed by people that don't understand those kinds of things because the mockers always keep it simple. That makes their perspective based on just understanding what happens when you use a simple approach.
I don't see how you could get $45/hour with the spread he posted (see above quote), unless he was playing atrocious rules, or perhaps his system or approach is weak. I hear Vegas is going mostly 6:5. Most AP's will refuse to play it. Some specialize in playing 6:5. If he plays it without using an approach tailored to playing a 6:5 game then he would have terrible results.
My max bet in PA and shortly while I was in vegas until I went through a downturn was 2x250 NOT 2x500 and I for the most part only backcounted so I get in roughly 60 rounds per hour I would say on average. Although I get fewer rounds, my edge is also higher than most and is roughly 1.8% on average and sometimes as high as 2.8% depending on the penetration and rules. You and others seem to go by the industry standard of 100 rounds per hour and so you are comparing my win rate to a win rate 'per' 100 rounds which is misleading. You and others might get more rounds in per hour, but your edge is probably only around 1.2% give or take a few tenths of a percent, which ends up being much lower and having a more increased risk, lower SCORE and higher N-zero.
My win rate is per 60 rounds and all the metrics improve significantly through this backcounting approach. Of course at times, I do play heads up when it's slow and tables are empty, but I really try to only play an aggressive backcounting style game because although it's aggressive, it actually provides a bit of cover if you do it right. Pit bosses are droned out and told what to do and are provided a checklist, in which 'spread' is the biggest indicator of whether you're a counter and whether a countermeasure or backoff should proceed.
If you can backcount and sneak onto the table, especially if you bring chips with you and don't buy in, they might only see you spread 1-2 even though you spread 1-4 or 1-5, which regardless still wouldn't scare them because most pit bosses are taught you need at least a 1-12 or 1-16 for a shoe game. Even if they see you backcount or standing around looking suspicious, most pit bosses will be hesitant to call surveillance or take action on someone who only spread 1-4 and be looked at as a fool. Combine all of this with short sessions and you should last a long time until you run into a sharp boss, but that still doesn't mean anything, just give it 3 months or so and go back on a different shift.
I do think I have run badly and my win rate even though it's per 60 rounds on average, should be higher and was hoping someone can run a proper sim with all the details I have provided. When I run the sim on CVCX, the numbers come out really wrong and i dont know why. If I use the archived sims, it tells me I should be somewhere around the 50 an hour range, but if I check 'departure adjustment' the win rate soars to about 80 an hour, but people have said 'departure adjustment' is not that reliable.
So AGAIN, hopefully someone can help me out. My instincts tell me that my expected hourly throughout these 1100 hours is exactly what the archives sims 'without' the departure adjustment say it is and that's around 50-55 an hour, but who knows anymore.