Winning a little at a time?

[bjchick]

Newb counter here. If my goal was only to make $200-300 per day playing blackjack and I had ample amount of casinos to choose from (vegas) so I don't bring unwanted heat, how realistic would that be? Bankroll not an issue, either is putting in the time to make sure i'm ready.

 

[HockeXpert]

Making $200-300 a day is unrealistic no matter what your b/r. What is reasonable is averaging $200-300 a day over a period of time.

With such a small edge as cc offers, luck plays a huge part in the short term and once you have a large enough sampling (huge number) you will likely see an overall all return that correlates to your true yet minute advantge.

HockeXpert

 

[bjchick]

i'm not talking about the short term. Luck shouldn't play a factor because i'm treating this as one long session and on average hope to make $200-300 per day. I don't want to move up in stakes and I don't want to play for thousands. Over the long haul though, moving from casino to casino, and staying at a fairly low limit ($50 max bet)do you think its possible to go unnoticed by security and be able to win this amount on average?

 

[kewljason]

i'm not talking about the short term. Luck shouldn't play a factor because i'm treating this as one long session and on average hope to make $200-300 per day. I don't want to move up in stakes and I don't want to play for thousands. Over the long haul though, moving from casino to casino, and staying at a fairly low limit ($50 max bet)do you think its possible to go unnoticed by security and be able to win this amount on average?

$50 max bet? No, you aren't going to make the kind of money you are suggesting. Spreading $10-$50, might earn you $10 an hour long term against the mostly crappy low limit games, if you don't play many/most negative counts. So you would need to play 20 hours per day to reach the lower end of your desired goal, which is unrealistic. Even if you only played against better games and could earn closer to 2 units per hour ($20) you would need to play 10 hours per day to reach your bottom goal, but there aren't that many decent low limit games in town, so again....unrealistic. Sorry.

 

[monte_vv]

i'm not talking about the short term. Luck shouldn't play a factor because i'm treating this as one long session and on average hope to make $200-300 per day. I don't want to move up in stakes and I don't want to play for thousands. Over the long haul though, moving from casino to casino, and staying at a fairly low limit ($50 max bet)do you think its possible to go unnoticed by security and be able to win this amount on average?

Spreading $10-$100, agressive wonging, perhaps playing 2 hands at 70% of your normal bet at TC+2 and higher (if possible) might get you closer, but it will be difficult. This approach will also increase your variance.

 

[blackjack avenger]

High Variance

You cannot win every day.
You cannot win every week.:joker::whip:

 

[FLASH1296]

Most card counters win < ⅔ of their sessions.

Once you have played an enormous number of sessions you my approach 75% winning sessions;

presuming that the games are good and that you are very skillful.

For a more precise set of figures and discussion, see: Modern Blackjack, Vol. II by QFIT

 

[kewljason]

You cannot win every day.
You cannot win every week.:joker::whip:

Maybe I have misunderstood, but I didn't get the impression he thinks he can win every day or every week. I though he was trying to average $200-$300 per day.

 

[bjchick]

I know I cannot win every session, everyday, or every week. I simply want to average $2-300 per day in the long run. What is the lowest possible levels you think this can be accomplished without being forced out etc.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Per Day = Every Day

Maybe I have misunderstood, but I didn't get the impression he thinks he can win every day or every week. I though he was trying to average $200-$300 per day.

Average is not mentioned in the original post

I am also speaking to a broader audience who may think AP is an ATM:joker::whip:

 

[blackjack avenger]

Lower the Bets the Less Heat

I know I cannot win every session, everyday, or every week. I simply want to average $2-300 per day in the long run. What is the lowest possible levels you think this can be accomplished without being forced out etc.

The lower you bet the less attention it will draw, but the harder your rather difficult goal will be.:joker::whip:

If you never bet $100 you will be pretty invisible in the larger places and somewhat visible in smaller casinos, but then very hard to reach your win goals.:joker::whip:

Also, you are thinking about this incorrectly.

1. How much can you afford to lose? This is your bank.
2. How do I bet that money correctly?
3. How much you win will be a function of 1 & 2 plus the games you play and the time you put in.

 

[aslan]

Average is not mentioned in the original post

I am also speaking to a broader audience who may think AP is an ATM:joker::whip:

Yup, it just sort of wiggled it's way into the conversation somewhere along the way.

Not an ATM, huh? Well, now you tell me!!! :yikes: :laugh:

 

[kewljason]

I know I cannot win every session, everyday, or every week. I simply want to average $2-300 per day in the long run. What is the lowest possible levels you think this can be accomplished without being forced out etc.

You really haven't provided enough details to give a reasonably accurate answer. How many hours per day would you be playing? What kind of spread? What kind of games? Are just a few of the unanswered questions. If you are serious about blackjack advantage play, you will need to invest in a good simulator. I recommend http://www.qfit.com You feed all your information in and will receive reasonable expectations.

In very generic terms, $200-$300 per day is $70,000 to $100,000 per year. Last year my results fell in the lower end of that range, spreading $25-$300, playing an estimated 98,000 hands which I would estimate to be about 1600 hours. (I don't really count time, I count hands) My results were pretty close to expectation. Most AP's would not find this to be a reasonable return for the time invested though and would opt for larger bet spreads and max bets over a shorter time to reach such expectations, but then you are getting into issues of heat and longevity, which you stated you wish to avoid. Hope this helps.

 

[aslan]

You really haven't provided enough details to give a reasonably accurate answer. How many hours per day would you be playing? What kind of spread? What kind of games? Are just a few of the unanswered questions. If you are serious about blackjack advantage play, you will need to invest in a good simulator. I recommend www.qfit.com You feed all your information in and will receive reasonable expectations.

In very generic terms, $200-$300 per day is $70,000 to $100,000 per year. Last year my results fell in the lower end of that range, spreading $25-$300, playing an estimated 98,000 hands which I would estimate to be about 1600 hours. (I don't really count time, I count hands) My results were pretty close to expectation. Most AP's would not find this to be a reasonable return for the time invested though and would opt for larger bet spreads and max bets over a shorter time to reach such expectations, but then you are getting into issues of heat and longevity, which you stated you wish to avoid. Hope this helps.

Right, and if bjchick wants to avoid heat and achieve longevity, the stealth play required will take an extra bite out of any of the estimates given in this thread. That tends to be my style because when I find a casino I like, usually for a combination of reasons--good games, great comps, pleasing ambience,--I am wary of creating any heat and willing to take a cut in pay to achieve that end. OTOH, for stores I could care less about, a 12 minute run at max bet and quick departure is fine with me.

 

[kewljason]

Right, and if bjchick wants to avoid heat and achieve longevity, the stealth play required will take an extra bite out of any of the estimates given in this thread. That tends to be my style because when I find a casino I like, usually for a combination of reasons--good games, great comps, pleasing ambience,--I am wary of creating any heat and willing to take a cut in pay to achieve that end. OTOH, for stores I could care less about, a 12 minute run at max bet and quick departure is fine with me.

"pleasing ambience"? :laugh: You would take less money to play at a nice place? I'll have to think about that one....Ok, I'm done thinking. :laugh: Not on my list. As a matter of fact, I usually go the other way. Last year when Dump Plaza, hell hole of AC, was offering a decent game, I was there alot. Same with a few places in Vegas in my rotation. Show me the money (or a decent game) and keep your pleasing ambience. :laugh:

 

[aslan]

"pleasing ambience"? :laugh: You would take less money to play at a nice place? I'll have to think about that one....Ok, I'm done thinking. :laugh: Not on my list. As a matter of fact, I usually go the other way. Last year when Dump Plaza, hell hole of AC, was offering a decent game, I was there alot. Same with a few places in Vegas in my rotation. Show me the money (or a decent game) and keep your pleasing ambience. :laugh:

Be kewl, Jason--I'm a recreational player, so the amount of winnings is not always the highest priority in my book. What I surround myself with and where I and my wife stay are important to me. Were I to do this for a living, then dollars would naturally be pushed to a higher level, though not without limit. I got a bit nauseous when you mentioned the Dump, which I consider one of the sleaziest joints I have ever visited. Where I spend my time has a value that sometimes overrides my natural desire for reaping the greatest financial reward. Besides, I wouldn't put it past the Dumpster to pull some illegality or shady ploy to capture one's bankroll, perhaps only traceable to an individual PC or pit. It's so thick there you can feel it in the air.