WTF do I do?

[p8ntballsk8r]

Well, my situation is I'm only 18, and I built my bankroll off of $35 not even playing well, just catching a run of really good cards, coupled with limited knowledge about counting. IE: got up to about $200 and threw down a black after seening a table full of low cards (RC probably increased by 15 on this hand alone).

As I've gone along I've been learning as much as possible about counting, betting, BS, everything I can find that will be benefitial for me at the table.

Now that I'm starting to play correctly, I'm losing! I know that in the LONG RUN I'll be better off this way, but it's just frustrating.

Back to my original point, I'm 18, have a BR of about $400 (I play 5min tables so I have 80 units) Of that 400, only $200 is replentishable, the other
$200 is needed for a speeding ticket and other expenses.

NDN21, where can I get that software? Is it free? If not, how much does it cost, and is it truely worth getting?
As of right now, I see no error in where I could be making mistakes. I'm playing 6d H17 DOA DAS. I modified the IRC to be 0, this makes my Key Count +16, and my Pivot Point +24. My exit strategy at the moment is weak, and at the casino I play at, If I were to exit it might take an hour or more to find another 5min table.

Let me know what you guys think.

 

[sagefr0g]

Well, my situation is I'm only 18, and I built my bankroll off of $35 not even playing well, just catching a run of really good cards, coupled with limited knowledge about counting. IE: got up to about $200 and threw down a black after seening a table full of low cards (RC probably increased by 15 on this hand alone).

As I've gone along I've been learning as much as possible about counting, betting, BS, everything I can find that will be benefitial for me at the table.

Now that I'm starting to play correctly, I'm losing! I know that in the LONG RUN I'll be better off this way, but it's just frustrating.

Back to my original point, I'm 18, have a BR of about $400 (I play 5min tables so I have 80 units) Of that 400, only $200 is replentishable, the other
$200 is needed for a speeding ticket and other expenses.

NDN21, where can I get that software? Is it free? If not, how much does it cost, and is it truely worth getting?
As of right now, I see no error in where I could be making mistakes. I'm playing 6d H17 DOA DAS. I modified the IRC to be 0, this makes my Key Count +16, and my Pivot Point +24. My exit strategy at the moment is weak, and at the casino I play at, If I were to exit it might take an hour or more to find another 5min table.

Let me know what you guys think.

unfortunately with a bankroll of $400 the odds are stacked against you no matter how well you play.
playing even $5 min tables it would be easy for you to lose it all in one session. you could get very, very lucky and have a winning streak over an extended period of time (i know because it happened to me) that would build your bankroll to the $7000 you really need to have a decent chance. even if you did achieve the $7000 you would still need to be willing to lose it all inorder to play properly if you are going to continue playing.

 

[ScottH]

Well, my situation is I'm only 18, and I built my bankroll off of $35 not even playing well, just catching a run of really good cards, coupled with limited knowledge about counting. IE: got up to about $200 and threw down a black after seening a table full of low cards (RC probably increased by 15 on this hand alone).

As I've gone along I've been learning as much as possible about counting, betting, BS, everything I can find that will be benefitial for me at the table.

Now that I'm starting to play correctly, I'm losing! I know that in the LONG RUN I'll be better off this way, but it's just frustrating.

Back to my original point, I'm 18, have a BR of about $400 (I play 5min tables so I have 80 units) Of that 400, only $200 is replentishable, the other
$200 is needed for a speeding ticket and other expenses.

NDN21, where can I get that software? Is it free? If not, how much does it cost, and is it truely worth getting?
As of right now, I see no error in where I could be making mistakes. I'm playing 6d H17 DOA DAS. I modified the IRC to be 0, this makes my Key Count +16, and my Pivot Point +24. My exit strategy at the moment is weak, and at the casino I play at, If I were to exit it might take an hour or more to find another 5min table.

Let me know what you guys think.

You want to know what I think? Ok. You have a bankroll of 400 dollars and you occasionally bet BLACK when the count gets good?! I think you need to learn about ROR! You better do it FAST too! :whip:

P.S. Only having 80 units is just asking to go broke. Not trying to make fun of you, but you should be mentally prepared to go broke with only 80 units, don't take my word for it.

 

[ChefJJ]

You want to know what I think? Ok. You have a bankroll of 400 dollars and you occasionally bet BLACK when the count gets good?! I think you need to learn about ROR! You better do it FAST too! :whip:

P.S. Only having 80 units is just asking to go broke. Not trying to make fun of you, but you should be mentally prepared to go broke with only 80 units, don't take my word for it.

Scott is right...if you are a recreational player (which you would almost have to be if you are 18 and in the USA) and you come to the table with $400, that is absolutely different that having a bankroll of $400. Either way, black chipping won't get you far...unless you have great luck.

Great luck never hurt anybody though...good luck man.

 

[Preston]

one thing you can do is practice... OUTSIDE THE CASINO

I have a poker chip set (nice one too) and a blackjack shoe that I travel with. One my days on the road where I don't have a game available I will practice and make a log of my practice sessions.

If you are having a big losing streak it could be variance. It could also be you are overlooking part of your game. I just have no clue as to what that would be.

 

[EasyRhino]

Your bankroll is really only $200, go ahead and pay that traffic ticket now. Leaving those unpaid is more -EV than anything else

I recommend preparing yourself to lose the $200, drop your max bet to $25, and wong tables really really hard, so that you're basically only ever betting $25 in very positive counts. You'll have a 50/50 chance of doubling your money before losing it.

 

[ScottH]

Your bankroll is really only $200, go ahead and pay that traffic ticket now. Leaving those unpaid is more -EV than anything else

I recommend preparing yourself to lose the $200, drop your max bet to $25, and wong tables really really hard, so that you're basically only ever betting $25 in very positive counts. You'll have a 50/50 chance of doubling your money before losing it.

With a 200 dollar bankroll his max bet SHOULD BE 20 cents! The funny thing is, that's not a joke!

 

[Persnickety1]

With a 200 dollar bankroll his max bet SHOULD BE 20 cents! The funny thing is, that's not a joke!

There might be some third world country out there where that's feasible. Maybe Ethiopia or Sudan? But I don't think he has the plane fare.

A 20 cent max bet would be required if he was to insist on a 1% RoR. Somehow I think he would be willing to accept a greater risk than that.

 

[Claza]

There might be some third world country out there where that's feasible. Maybe Ethiopia or Sudan? But I don't think he has the plane fare.

A 20 cent max bet would be required if he was to insist on a 1% RoR. Somehow I think he would be willing to accept a greater risk than that.

I wonder if they still stone people to death for counting cards in Ethiopia.

 

[ScottH]

I wonder if they still stone people to death for counting cards in Ethiopia.

They do, just ask Renegade's friend... :laugh:

 

[SystemsTrader]

Back to my original point, I'm 18, have a BR of about $400 (I play 5min tables so I have 80 units) Of that 400, only $200 is replentishable, the other
$200 is needed for a speeding ticket and other expenses.

Let me know what you guys think.

Quit while you're ahead! With a $400 bankroll your risk of ruin is about 85%. That means it is almost guaranteed you will go broke. My advice is immeadiately stop going to the casinos. Get yourself some practice software, get a job and start saving money. Once you have saved up at least $5k but even better $10k you will be ready to hit the casinos. Don't worry they aren't going to disappear in the near future, they will still be there when you will be ready and more prepared.
I'm not trying to be discouraging I just want you to realize blackjack is a tough way to make money. It is really harder than most people think and with a small bankroll the amount of money you will make after expenses is very little. Even with 10k you will probably make more money working at McDonalds because your edge in blackjack is so small. Its a very tough grind and a constant cat and mouse game. Losing streaks can be long and prolonged and you must be ready to handle that. Once you train yourself to be a total automaton in your playing and have saved up the enough money than you will be ready to hit the casinos. You asked what we think so I am just giving you my opinion!

 

[p8ntballsk8r]

hmmm, seeing as this BR is no good at the moment, what do you guys think about backcounting until reaching the Pivot Point, then throwing down 2 black chips and praying for no Neg Variance? If I have a 50/50 chance by placing 20$ max bets, I might as well take my 52% chance of double or nothing and play with that whole 200, right?

Also, if I were to take this approach, what is a good way to get the 200 in chips and get away from the table and not look like a counter or wonger or whatever? Basically I want to exchange the cash before wonging in so I don't wong in with 200 and put it all in the circle. Or would that be a better approach?

 

[ScottH]

hmmm, seeing as this BR is no good at the moment, what do you guys think about backcounting until reaching the Pivot Point, then throwing down 2 black chips and praying for no Neg Variance? If I have a 50/50 chance by placing 20$ max bets, I might as well take my 52% chance of double or nothing and play with that whole 200, right?

Also, if I were to take this approach, what is a good way to get the 200 in chips and get away from the table and not look like a counter or wonger or whatever? Basically I want to exchange the cash before wonging in so I don't wong in with 200 and put it all in the circle. Or would that be a better approach?

If you want to wong in and bet 200 dollars and only make that one bet, you dont have to worry about looking like an AP. You won't have any problem getting down that 200 dollars and getting out (if you win). However, I don't advise you to bet it all on one hand, but you can easily get away with doing, don't worry.

Also, just because you have a 2% edge does not mean you will win a bet 52% of the time. So if you go allin on one hand you'll have less than a 50% chance of winning, even though you have the advantage.

 

[p8ntballsk8r]

I'm confused on how that works. Could you please explain how a 2% advantage is not the same as 52% expectation?

 

[positiveEV]

I'm confused on how that works. Could you please explain how a 2% advantage is not the same as 52% expectation?

This also includes blackjacks. Your blackjacks give you +150%, normal wins gives you +100%, pushes gives you 0% and lost are -100%, if you average everything out (billions of possibilities) it will give you your advantage.

 

[Persnickety1]

hmmm, seeing as this BR is no good at the moment, what do you guys think about backcounting until reaching the Pivot Point, then throwing down 2 black chips and praying for no Neg Variance? If I have a 50/50 chance by placing 20$ max bets, I might as well take my 52% chance of double or nothing and play with that whole 200, right?

Also, if I were to take this approach, what is a good way to get the 200 in chips and get away from the table and not look like a counter or wonger or whatever? Basically I want to exchange the cash before wonging in so I don't wong in with 200 and put it all in the circle. Or would that be a better approach?

You obviously don't care about this money since you are willing to blow it all on a double or nothing kind of deal. And you won't gain any blackjack experience that way either.

If you feel that you must blow this money at the blackjack table before you can save enough for a proper bankroll, why not find yourself a nice low minimum table, maybe $2 or $3, spread 1-4, and see for yourself how long you can make it last by playing the correct BS, unemotionally, without any more of that creative betting nonsense.

You'll still lose it all eventually, but you would gain some valuable experience.

 

[zengrifter]

I'm confused on how that works. Could you please explain how a 2% advantage is not the same as 52% expectation?

"52% expectation" would be a 4% edge - 52-48=4. Your ROR wonging 200 flat bets (2u BR) would be over 90%.

You need a minimum of $2500 for $5u play. zg