your worst losing streaks
- Thread starter cbrown
- Start date
I agree. Can you not see that one hand is not related in any significant fashion to the next? If you've lost 4 hands in a row playing at one table you are just as likely to lose the next hand whether you move to another table or not. It doesn't matter where you play it, the odds remain the same.
The anecdotal evidence you provide is just that - anecdotal - and that being the case, it has no intrinsic worth. You seem to be at least partially knowledgable about counting, so you should be aware that short term luck (like what you describe) is far from uncommon and that no betting system can overcome the house odds?
It sounds like you did not succeed at counting because you did not put enough study in (at least not enough to have reasonable expectations), not because counting doesn't work.
I'm sorry if this sounds harsh as i honestly don't mean to be, but that is the truth.
RJT.
The anecdotal evidence you provide is just that - anecdotal - and that being the case, it has no intrinsic worth. You seem to be at least partially knowledgable about counting, so you should be aware that short term luck (like what you describe) is far from uncommon and that no betting system can overcome the house odds?
It sounds like you did not succeed at counting because you did not put enough study in (at least not enough to have reasonable expectations), not because counting doesn't work.
I'm sorry if this sounds harsh as i honestly don't mean to be, but that is the truth.
RJT.
9 of the last 10 years
Depending upon the year, I put in 250-500 hours, and though I had a losing year in 2002, have won in the other 9 years. Significant or not, I have averaged a net profit after all expenses of over $28,000 per year. This is for solo play only but does include a limited amount (when available) of hole carding.
About once a year I do team up with one other person but I keep that as a separate total and our hourly profit is well beyond my solo play but solo play does make money.
Straight counting can still work but go back 28 years or so when I first began, I did lose in 3 of my first 5 years and I have posted here why I think most people who attempt to count land up being net losers or just give it up thinking it does not work.
Simply put, you have a system that when usued properly gives you a very small edge but the system is being used by people and people are just not perfect so errors made can erode whatever edge you have simply.
Some of the things that kill the edge.
Over beating and not understanding your ROR. Under bankrolled
Playing poor games. Penetration and rules
Not understanding the variance of blackjack.
Not having the guts to keep the big bets on the felt even when the casino is beating your butt. This can have a very long term effect that cuts your edge forever.
Real steaming: Getting emotional and betting big when you do not have the edge.
Giving away too much EV in fear of heat.
Fear of annoying other players: Ignoring indices that bring you ploppy heat and not spreading to additional hands when you should because of the ploppy god called the flow.
Given a little more thought time I can probably come up with a dozen more or so, but when you are fighting for an edge of about 1.5%, it is very very easy for you to give that edge away.
ihate17
Depending upon the year, I put in 250-500 hours, and though I had a losing year in 2002, have won in the other 9 years. Significant or not, I have averaged a net profit after all expenses of over $28,000 per year. This is for solo play only but does include a limited amount (when available) of hole carding.
About once a year I do team up with one other person but I keep that as a separate total and our hourly profit is well beyond my solo play but solo play does make money.
Straight counting can still work but go back 28 years or so when I first began, I did lose in 3 of my first 5 years and I have posted here why I think most people who attempt to count land up being net losers or just give it up thinking it does not work.
Simply put, you have a system that when usued properly gives you a very small edge but the system is being used by people and people are just not perfect so errors made can erode whatever edge you have simply.
Some of the things that kill the edge.
Over beating and not understanding your ROR. Under bankrolled
Playing poor games. Penetration and rules
Not understanding the variance of blackjack.
Not having the guts to keep the big bets on the felt even when the casino is beating your butt. This can have a very long term effect that cuts your edge forever.
Real steaming: Getting emotional and betting big when you do not have the edge.
Giving away too much EV in fear of heat.
Fear of annoying other players: Ignoring indices that bring you ploppy heat and not spreading to additional hands when you should because of the ploppy god called the flow.
Given a little more thought time I can probably come up with a dozen more or so, but when you are fighting for an edge of about 1.5%, it is very very easy for you to give that edge away.
ihate17
Update:
Glad to hear that some long term counters are making a net profit. Maybe I am wrong about the overall success of most counters, but I really doubt it in all honesty. I for one do believe some tables are worth playing at certain times, and some tables are suicide whether you are counting or any other strategy. By limiting yourself to four consecutive losses per table, you will be able to take advantage of the good tables, and limit your losses on the many bad ones. Most long term players know that some tables are good and can stay good for awhile and some are very bad and stay bad for hours. Anyway, won this weekend again playing this new four straight loss and off with level bets strategy on about 6 tables for 5 hrs this weekend with just a 20 unit total bankroll and won a net of 10 units(50% net return on session bankroll). Give it a try if you are losing on your current strategy, you may be surprised, and dont be too negative(suspicious is ok as I would be also) unless you give it a good session try.
Glad to hear that some long term counters are making a net profit. Maybe I am wrong about the overall success of most counters, but I really doubt it in all honesty. I for one do believe some tables are worth playing at certain times, and some tables are suicide whether you are counting or any other strategy. By limiting yourself to four consecutive losses per table, you will be able to take advantage of the good tables, and limit your losses on the many bad ones. Most long term players know that some tables are good and can stay good for awhile and some are very bad and stay bad for hours. Anyway, won this weekend again playing this new four straight loss and off with level bets strategy on about 6 tables for 5 hrs this weekend with just a 20 unit total bankroll and won a net of 10 units(50% net return on session bankroll). Give it a try if you are losing on your current strategy, you may be surprised, and dont be too negative(suspicious is ok as I would be also) unless you give it a good session try.
Scott:
There is some things about this BJ game that does not conform to logic, and I understand your point which is very logical, but in real casino play this good table vs bad table thing happens too often to simply ignore. If you think about it and document your results, I would bet that you would see the light and conform your strategy accordingly. Why would you want to stay at a negative table anyway which you would be doing if you believe there is no difference in table results.
There is some things about this BJ game that does not conform to logic, and I understand your point which is very logical, but in real casino play this good table vs bad table thing happens too often to simply ignore. If you think about it and document your results, I would bet that you would see the light and conform your strategy accordingly. Why would you want to stay at a negative table anyway which you would be doing if you believe there is no difference in table results.
Besides my earlier story
My earlier story told you about a shoe that began horribly and ended great, but honestly that kind of shoe is not rare for a counter.
What will happen at times is you are at a table with several other players and early on in the shoe the dealer is making these 5 or even more card 21's and just killing everyone at the table. The good table/bad table guys and the lose 4 in a row guys will take off for other tables, but the thing is the counter knows that all those 5 or so card 21's have often caused the count to go up nicely and now since most of the competition for getting those good cards, a greater proportion of them is yours.
When this happens, quite often I am the only one left at the table and I have honestly had many of my best shoes in just this situation.
So do as you wish to do. If you leave my table I will probably appreciate it. Finally, my longest losing streak (23 hands) came on 4 different tables. I did not leave the previous three because of losses, I wonged out because of the count.
ihate17
My earlier story told you about a shoe that began horribly and ended great, but honestly that kind of shoe is not rare for a counter.
What will happen at times is you are at a table with several other players and early on in the shoe the dealer is making these 5 or even more card 21's and just killing everyone at the table. The good table/bad table guys and the lose 4 in a row guys will take off for other tables, but the thing is the counter knows that all those 5 or so card 21's have often caused the count to go up nicely and now since most of the competition for getting those good cards, a greater proportion of them is yours.
When this happens, quite often I am the only one left at the table and I have honestly had many of my best shoes in just this situation.
So do as you wish to do. If you leave my table I will probably appreciate it. Finally, my longest losing streak (23 hands) came on 4 different tables. I did not leave the previous three because of losses, I wonged out because of the count.
ihate17
Some yes and some no
Scot
Only when there is something that knocks me in the head about the streak can I give a real accurate count on it. Others are approximations.
One streak for instance began when I sat down at a freshly shuffled shoe where the count just kept hovering about zero. I bought in for $500 and suddenly I had no chips. 10 hands flat betting $50. I buy in for another $500 and the count begins tanking so I leave with $300, no doubles or splits, so that must be 14 in a row. Go have dinner and when I play again I am now officially counting losing hands till I find a way to win a hand.
There are other times where I am not sure if it was 7 or 8 or 9 or if I had perhaps one winning hand included.
ihate17
Scot
Only when there is something that knocks me in the head about the streak can I give a real accurate count on it. Others are approximations.
One streak for instance began when I sat down at a freshly shuffled shoe where the count just kept hovering about zero. I bought in for $500 and suddenly I had no chips. 10 hands flat betting $50. I buy in for another $500 and the count begins tanking so I leave with $300, no doubles or splits, so that must be 14 in a row. Go have dinner and when I play again I am now officially counting losing hands till I find a way to win a hand.
There are other times where I am not sure if it was 7 or 8 or 9 or if I had perhaps one winning hand included.
ihate17
man 5$ software off of amazon (Riverboatblackjack and Masque blackjack) could have told you that you need massive bankrolls, we got Kewljason who played under the worst conditions and yanked out a small edge, im sure he looks back 2 decades into the past yea im happy making 8 an a quarter from gamblin it up and now hes makin 800 hun it dollars an hour or whatever you get the idea, so yea are you gonna convert to poker and play a fair game? BJ is not a fair game 1.5 your bet or 4000 pay out? you decide...
Wow, that was an old post. I'm up to 18 years now, but most of that data is skewed by other playing styles. I don't do a whole lot of straight card counting. When I isolate the card counting sessions it ends up being about 1.3 units per hour, but mostly because I try to play at uncrowded tables or backcount crowded ones. It's probably about 1 unit per 100 hands.
-Sonny-
-Sonny-
Hi KJ! Glad to see you're still earning.
I think of my unit as the bet I would make at a TC of zero. My minimum bet might be lower in negative counts, or my unit might be an average of several different bet sizes that I use at TC 0. It's hard to really quantify a unit size when different games have different bet spreads and different min/max bets. I'm sure you understand that more than most people here. So, in general, I just use my bet at TC 0 or if I'm backcounting my minimum bet.
-Sonny-
I think of my unit as the bet I would make at a TC of zero. My minimum bet might be lower in negative counts, or my unit might be an average of several different bet sizes that I use at TC 0. It's hard to really quantify a unit size when different games have different bet spreads and different min/max bets. I'm sure you understand that more than most people here. So, in general, I just use my bet at TC 0 or if I'm backcounting my minimum bet.
-Sonny-