Ace tracking.

  • ScottH

    Ace tracking.

    I have heard about ace tracking, or ace sequencing. I was looking for a good place or book to find more information about it. I asked about it before in one thread and I think someone said “Blackjack Attack”, but I didn’t see anything about it in there. If it is in there, can someone point me to the correct page?

  • KenSmith

     

    I don’t recall any sequencing information in BJ Attack.

    In 2004, David McDowell’s book “Blackjack Ace Prediction” was published, but many experts were highly critical of the book because of errors in the math. The book has a website here: Blackjack Ace Prediction.

    This book, despite the controversy around it, still presented more ace prediction information than had ever before appeared in print.

  • zengrifter

    Simple Example

    Also David Morse ‘BJ Reality’, for shoe games… BUT for 1-2D games its really as simple as watching for “key-cards” – the cards that preceed the Aces – and then after the shuffle, when one comes out at the end of a previous round bet two max bets – which is why I always sit at 1st base now. zg

    —————–
    EXCERPT BARFY SPRING 2005

    …Grif has been doing some informal ace tracking lately so, at the top of every shuffle, he’d whisper to me “ten of clubs, six of hearts, eight of spades,” or some-such. I found it difficult to watch for these key cards that would precede the aces and still keep my count at the same time. But we muddled through regardless. I soon gave up on key-card tracking and just concentrated upon the count and simply increased my bets and number of spots when I saw Grif doing likewise in unusual situations. Since he has practiced this new technique, I’d just depend on him to alert me when aces were due to come out…

    …During this session, The Grifter whispered to me, “two of spades,” when he saw the dealer scoop two aces in front of that key card. About three rounds into the next shuffle, I saw the two of spades come out on the next-to-last card dealt on that round, and nudged Grif, who had seen it too, and nodded. Before the next round, and despite a true count of minus three, The Grifter, strategically positioned at first base, spread to two spots, with max bets on each.

    I spread to two spots of only $50 each, kind of hedging my bets. The essence of key-card ace prediction is that those two aces should soon follow that two of spades-key card. In this case, Grif was following what he calls a “super-key-card,” a key card followed by two aces. We would hope to catch one or both as the first cards of our hands, and then hopefully catch a ten on that.

    Unbelievable! Two max bets on a minus three count, and The Grifter caught both aces with matching tens! Grif flipped over the two blackjacks and announced in mock dismay that, “The odds of getting two blackjacks at the same time are 500-1 and these bastards are only paying me 3-2.”

    At another point in this marathon four-hour session, I drew a seventeen vs. a dealer’s ace in a minus six true count. Grif urged me to hit it, but I declined his advice and stood. The next card was a deuce, which would have given me nineteen. The dealer flipped a seven in the hole for eighteen, and I lost a hand I would have won. I cannot remember the last time I hit a hard seventeen, and was even less likely to do so now, especially in my fatigued condition, but I later checked that extreme index for seventeen vs. an ace in a h17 double-deck game, and it turned out to be minus seven – not quite negative enough to hit, but Grif’s instincts were right as usual.

    …END EXCERPT……..

  • E-town-guy

     

    I guess most of the time you miss the ace or at least the opportunity to change your bet because the key card will come out at an inopportune time? Overall ace tracking doesn’t sound too difficult.

  • zengrifter

     

    Suppose you note several key cards per 2D shuffle – then every two shuffles you get a key card at the end of a round, allowing two max bets – and 1 in 5 two handed bets lands 1 Ace. You do the math. zg

    Ps – with 6D its much more complicated.

  • Sonny

     

    Blackjack Blueprint by Rick Blaine also has chapters on sequencing (he calls it Location Play) and shuffle tracking.

    -Sonny-

  • ScottH

     

    Quote: zengrifter:
    Also David Morse ‘BJ Reality’, for shoe games… BUT for 1-2D games its really as simple as watching for “key-cards” – the cards that preceed the Aces – and then after the shuffle, when one comes out at the end of a previous round bet two max bets – which is why I always sit at 1st base now. zg

    —————–
    EXCERPT BARFY SPRING 2005

    …Grif has been doing some informal ace tracking lately so, at the top of every shuffle, he’d whisper to me “ten of clubs, six of hearts, eight of spades,” or some-such. I found it difficult to watch for these key cards that would precede the aces and still keep my count at the same time. But we muddled through regardless. I soon gave up on key-card tracking and just concentrated upon the count and simply increased my bets and number of spots when I saw Grif doing likewise in unusual situations. Since he has practiced this new technique, I’d just depend on him to alert me when aces were due to come out…

    …During this session, The Grifter whispered to me, “two of spades,” when he saw the dealer scoop two aces in front of that key card. About three rounds into the next shuffle, I saw the two of spades come out on the next-to-last card dealt on that round, and nudged Grif, who had seen it too, and nodded. Before the next round, and despite a true count of minus three, The Grifter, strategically positioned at first base, spread to two spots, with max bets on each.

    I spread to two spots of only $50 each, kind of hedging my bets. The essence of key-card ace prediction is that those two aces should soon follow that two of spades-key card. In this case, Grif was following what he calls a “super-key-card,” a key card followed by two aces. We would hope to catch one or both as the first cards of our hands, and then hopefully catch a ten on that.

    Unbelievable! Two max bets on a minus three count, and The Grifter caught both aces with matching tens! Grif flipped over the two blackjacks and announced in mock dismay that, “The odds of getting two blackjacks at the same time are 500-1 and these bastards are only paying me 3-2.”

    At another point in this marathon four-hour session, I drew a seventeen vs. a dealer’s ace in a minus six true count. Grif urged me to hit it, but I declined his advice and stood. The next card was a deuce, which would have given me nineteen. The dealer flipped a seven in the hole for eighteen, and I lost a hand I would have won. I cannot remember the last time I hit a hard seventeen, and was even less likely to do so now, especially in my fatigued condition, but I later checked that extreme index for seventeen vs. an ace in a h17 double-deck game, and it turned out to be minus seven – not quite negative enough to hit, but Grif’s instincts were right as usual.

    …END EXCERPT……..

    So lets say you see on the table a 2d, 4c, and then an Ace. After the shuffle if you see the 2d and 4c in succession that means there is a good chance that the ace will follow?

  • zengrifter

     

    Yes, if its the correct 4c the Ace will sometimes follow 1-6+ cards behind. What makes it strong is that IF you could predict the Ace as one of your first two cards you’d have a 50% advantage – once in five, you still have a 10% advantage – once in five 2-handed attempts, a 5% advantage, wtc. zg

  • ScottH

     

    Quote: KenSmith:
    I don’t recall any sequencing information in BJ Attack.

    In 2004, David McDowell’s book “Blackjack Ace Prediction” was published, but many experts were highly critical of the book because of errors in the math. The book has a website here: Blackjack Ace Prediction.

    This book, despite the controversy around it, still presented more ace prediction information than had ever before appeared in print.

    Thanks for moving the thread.

    Besides the math errors, is the information reliable and useful?

  • zengrifter

     

    Quote: ScottH:
    Thanks for moving the thread.

    Besides the math errors, is the information reliable and useful?

    Not terribly, I just gave you the essence for 1-2D. For 6D Morse’s BJ Reality is the book, but its much more complicated because instead of one or two 4c there are 6.

    The math errors were criticized because pros could bet large amounts and be overbetting. I don’t exceed my standard topBet. zg

  • ScottH

     

    Quote: zengrifter:
    Not terribly, I just gave you the essence for 1-2D. For 6D Morse’s BJ Reality is the book, but its much more complicated because instead of one or two 4c there are 6.

    The math errors were criticized because pros could bet large amounts and be overbetting. I don’t exceed my standard topBet. zg

    Thanks for the help, I will still probably get the book and take a look anyway.

  • E-town-guy

     

    Quote: zengrifter:

    Ps – with 6D its much more complicated.

    Unfortunately I only have 4 deck games here.

    I’m wondering, could this technique make those 1 deck BJ pays 6:5 advantageous for counters?

  • ScottH

     

    Quote: E-town-guy:
    Unfortunately I only have 4 deck games here.

    I’m wondering, could this technique make those 1 deck BJ pays 6:5 advantageous for counters?

    Not as advantegous as 3 to 2 blackjacks!

  • zengrifter

     

    Quote: E-town-guy:
    Unfortunately I only have 4 deck games here.
    I’m wondering, could this technique make those 1 deck BJ pays 6:5 advantageous for counters?

    Probably not, though AutoMonk says that a 1-20 spread gives the 6:5 games an acceptable SCORE. And 6:5 games are great for frontloading (holecard play). zg

  • Sonny

     

    Quote: ScottH:
    Besides the math errors, is the information reliable and useful?

    I think it is a fantastic book. It opened my eyes to new methods of finding and exploiting weak shuffles. The ace tracking that ZG described is only one part of the book. It also shows other ways to recognize and take advantage of a weak shuffle like zone tracking, uneven packet distributions, and others. There is also a section on methods to improve your accuracy. The book includes a huge list of resources for further reading and covers the history of card location. There are also chapters on memorization techniques

    It does contain errors in the bet sizing chapter (from what I am told) but all of the techniques discussed are solid.

    -Sonny-

  • Mackhack

     

    Hi there,

    has anyone bought this book and read it before? What is your opinion about it?

  • zengrifter

     

    The book is of little use IMO. zg

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: zengrifter:
    Suppose you note several key cards per 2D shuffle – then every two shuffles you get a key card at the end of a round, allowing two max bets – and 1 in 5 two handed bets lands 1 Ace. You do the math. zg

    Ps – with 6D its much more complicated.

    is ace tracking and key carding possible with an automatic shuffle machine?

    best regards,
    mr fr0g

  • zengrifter

     

    No, because unlike hand shuffles there is no ‘riffle’ – cards are inserted randomly into the pack ustilizing an algorithm. zg

  • Automatic Monkey

     

    Quote: zengrifter:
    Probably not, though AutoMonk says that a 1-20 spread gives the 6:5 games an acceptable SCORE. And 6:5 games are great for frontloading (holecard play). zg

    It does, but you need to use a Zen count (Unbalanced Zen will work, Unbalanced Zen Halves {-1,1,2,2,3,2,1,0,-1,-2} is ideal), and there can’t be more than 2 hands in the game. This analysis I did to compare the 6:5 games to the shoe games in AC, turns out there isn’t much difference for straight counting. But the 6:5 games there are very crowded (and all use autoshufflers) so it’s not a worthwhile approach.

  • Automatic Monkey

     

    Quote: E-town-guy:
    Unfortunately I only have 4 deck games here.

    Not unfortunately, 4D games are wonderful for single-key ace sequencing! Assuming they shuffle in a way amenable to sequencing.

  • Mackhack

     

    Hi,

    who acutally in here does shuffle tracking or sequencing?

    Honestly, how many times did you really get (the) a ace which you predicted?

  • Automatic Monkey

     

    Quote: Mackhack:
    Hi,

    who acutally in here does shuffle tracking or sequencing?

    Honestly, how many times did you really get (the) a ace which you predicted?

    Depends on the method used and the shuffle being attacked. Some games it’s been as high as 20% or so. Other times it’s indistinguishable from the normal rate of getting aces, just as it is when you are betting into a high count. Ace sequencing has variance and bankroll requirements just like counting does, only using different math and very different skills.

  • zengrifter

     

    Quote: Mackhack:
    Honestly, how many times did you really get (the) a ace which you predicted?

    On a good day its better that 20% (2D-2hands) overall I cant tell you for sure, but its often enough that I haven’t given it up — its an enhancement to the count for me. zg

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