When it works...

Last few times out at the casino were break-evens or losses of a few units. I was doing things right, after reading up more on here and practicing a lot, but I wasn't hitting good streaks.

But then I went yesterday afternoon. I played for 90 minutes and walked away +64 units. I couldn't wong, didn't get the chance at all, so I jumped in a new shoe when I could. Went through that shoe and part of another, was down 10 units. Then the shoe got good. Then the next shoe got good, and the shoe after that was the shoe of a lifetime. The count went good early and kept getting better. I was splitting and doubling and hitting every single one. I was getting a lot of praise from the table and dealers (they rotate constantly at this place) but no heat really. I was sitting first base at a full table and there was a lot of action so there wasn't much attention being paid to just me. But slowly over the course of the last hour I played I absolutely destroyed the game.

When the count got to it's highest I put out my 6 unit bet (highest I play) and I hit the blackjack. It was like clockwork. Splitting aces at a +4 TC, beautiful stuff. I've had a lot of mediocre days lately where I'd grind it out for a few hours for a small loss and get frustrated because I made all the right plays. Prior to this I had 3 losing trips in a row where I played perfect and it still ended up I was down at the end.

Thanks to everyone on here for the tips. And the links to all of the articles, books, old threads, tips about software, etc. It's all come in handy, especially the info about practice practice practice and having BS memorized like your favorite song.

It was your lucky day and it was bad luck the other day. Thats BJ. The gambling gods have smiled on you. Enjoy it for now. The next time they may take a dump on you.

you got extremely lucky. go back and re-read those "articles, books, old threads, tips about software, etc". how were you playing all with only a 1-6 spread? and playing at a full table? what does a TC of 4 have to do with splitting aces? I understand you are happy about a win finally, but all I can say is you got lucky. you were playing a time and money wasting game. re-read these boards and modify your game accordingly before wasting more money and time! sorry for the harsh words, i am trying to save you $ in the long run.

I played at a full table because that's all there was, I was at the casino with relatives in town to have a good time. I wasn't playing for money, only fun.

I know I got lucky, but boy was it nice.

1-6 spread is because that's all I can afford.

Wow, you guys are such assholes.

With the name hawkeye, and your hawkeye image you have, no wonder you are getting these types of responses. You are playing a losing game as well. There are a few winners for many losers in a casino. It appears for one day you were one of the winners.

1-6 spread isn't necessarily a losing game, depending on the game, pen, etc.

Let's not be so harsh on the guy.

Everybody have a bad weekend?

Exactly. The guy comes here wanting to celebrate a win, and everybody tries to crush him.

One of the 6D games I play is still technically +EV with a 1:2.5 spread.

it is ALMOST surely a losing game when playing all hands in a shoe game and even pitch. and the # hands per hour he received was so small at a crowded table that any results are statistically insignificant. he was LUCKY. also his claims of "doing things right" were completely false. none of his play was correct from a card counting perspective. those are the points i made to ensure he does not fool himself into thinking he was generating +EV and go out and risk his BR on. if he wants someone to pat him on the back for this, i wont do it. if he wants to simply express happiness about a random BJ win, he should have posted in voodoo section. i just dont want others who are reading his posts to view his story as an example of counting "when it works...".

bell curve on the brain

nope, not almost surely in the short or long run. a 1-6 spread is sufficient to glean an advantage in a 7 player shoe game. your bell curve is gonna give him around $4-5/hr & ROR circa 6.2% assuming 7grand roll in the long haul for a full table shoe game.
hawkeye's description of the flow of the cards for that small amount of play indicated favorable counts. playing correctly as he did made him a favorite.
also he'd indicated that his previous play did not have such stellar results.
couldn't this fine session been a part of smoothing out the bell curve?
you don't know that since "the # hands per hour he received was so small at a crowded table that any results are statistically insignificant." his results could have been the result of the 'right side of the bell curve' as well as having played with skill.
why because he played a crowded table? his spread is fine, he made his bets according to the count and he's not claiming pro status. he's said he's playing for fun. look around crowded tables are a common situation in lots of places. they can still be beat.
but he was generating +EV. he said the counts were good, he was betting properly and making all his plays correctly. he'd of had +EV even if he hadn't of made a bundle.
naw we'd of throwed him outa the voodoo forum for making a fine post such as that.:joker: in the voodoo section we'd of showed him how to measure his luck and EV. but we all know it's true counting is great when it works and it sucks in the short run when it doesn't. even a pro can go over a year down in the dumps.
good job Hawkeye! you beat the bell curve and you did it with style.:1st:
but like Rukus is saying be careful, very, very careful. watch out that bell curve don't sneak up on you.

What did I claim to do right that wasn't right?

I understand some think I should be playing with a bigger spread, but my bankroll limits me and wins like this help my bankroll for the future.

Aside from that, what was so wrong? I played at a full table yes, I don't always have a choice, and I went to the casino this weekend with relatives visiting from out of town to have a good time. So I didn't want to not play with them because I didn't like the action. We were there to have fun.

It's funny, when people come on and say they did bad then everyone tells them that they play a dumb game. When people say they did good everyone tells them that it was luck and they play a dumb game.

It's almost all luck, I realize that. That's why I posted that I had lost the last 3 trips out to the casino. The variance caught up, and I got some good cards. Last time out I was losing 19 to 20 in a good count. This time I won the hands 20 to 19 in the good count.

I understand the statistics, the odds, the EV, variance, all that. A lot of people on here seem to think that they're the only one that can understand that stuff. That's not it. A lot of people on here are like me, they have regular jobs, a family, other obligations, and they don't have a huge bankroll to play with. And they play primarily for fun. But I have been practicing my counting, reading indexes, practicing at home, playing small stakes at the tables, etc. I wasn't playing dumb, I was playing the best game I could find at the time with the bankroll I have.

If you have a nice big bankroll and great games to play then more power to you. I'm jealous, I truly am. And if you earn more at blackjack in a year than I do at my 8-5 job then I'm extremely jealous. But everyone had to build a BR somewhere.

im sorry, if you want to fool yourself into thinking playing a 3400 hour, yes 3400 hour, N0 game and winning after 90 minutes is skill and supposed to happen, then im sorry. thats assuming hi-lo i18, 4.5/6D, s17 das at 50 hands an hour. heaven forbid you tell me it was an 8D game or h17. dont even waste time counting that game, just play and booze it up for free because your EV wont even pay for a beer.

as for the smoothing out of the curve, sage - do you call a BS player who wins a session lucky or do you say it was smoothing out the curve since he lost more than he was supposed to last time out?

and ok, i will give in, you can count +1 and -1 and maybe even divide by 1-6. but whoever sits to play in that situation looking to make any money is not an AP but a dreamer. i stand by my statements, this is in no way an example of proper counting. call me an ass, but i dont define card counting as just adding 2 numbers up or dividing. i define it as the whole process of picking tables/games, counting, br management, etc and this was not a prime example.

good luck in the future,
rukus

I read this forum everyday, and rarely ever post because of this crap. I play at least three times a week, and consider myself a very experienced counter/AP.

Rukus sounds like a bitter old man with a string of bad luck, and can't stand to see someone win, period.

He claims he wants to help, but from his comments you can clearly see that this is not the case. All he says is how much the game you are playing sucks, and how you're bet spread can't win etc.

Obviously the thread starter had an unbelievably lucky day. But that doesn't mean he wasn't playing smart, and made some of that luck with at least his max. bets out at the proper time.

All that is repeated is you're "fooling yourself", and there was no skill involved in the posted winning game. I didn't read the original comments meaning that it was all skill, isn't there always some "luck" involved anyway.

That large a win is clearly not normal. My 80 unit loss in a half a day last week was not normal either, and neither was my 60 unit win in half the time 3 days later.

It's great to bring someone back down to earth after a huge win, but there is no reason to insult someone repeatedly, aren't we all on the same side?

This guy is bitter, 400 posts on this forum do not automatically make you a pro.

Go ahead and fire away at me, and tell me I know nothing, and the games I play have no positive EV, and that YOU ARE DOING ME A FAVOR BY INSULTING ME LIKE THIS.

But you are the real jerk...

Shouldn't we all stick together??

hmm i'm thinkin more like circa 2000 hr? but i dunno what's supposed to happen. but how would any of that (winning or losing) negate the players application of skill? he either played with skill or he didn't. hawkeye played a +ev game making him a favorite far as i can see.
yeah your right maybe the game might yield $2-$3/hr instead of the $4-5/hr that i was thinking (i was kinder i gave him ls too but it was 8Ds17das). i think it's like hawkeye was saying that maybe it's a 'differant strokes for differant folks' sort of thing.
as far as the BS player who wins a session and had earlier lost more than he was supposed to i'm gonna guess and say both lucky and smoothing out the curve (maybe for both, maybe not). what ever the case it doesn't negate the value of playing proper basic strategy.
you got to hand it to hawkeye he is playing at an advantage even considering all of the odds he has going against him. those odds being his play environment was slighted in that whole process you describe.
but your standing up being a guardian of the purity of knowledge of what an AP is so i appologize for not recognizing that.
it's like i always say, you guys that know what's right and can do it keep on telling it like it is. that way guys like me who are less knowledgeable and lesser skilled can stand on the shoulders of giants. :cat:

Thanks guys.

I agree with blackjacker, we should stick together.

And also, rukus, I wasn't playing to make money. I was playing to have fun, I was counting to maximize my possibility that I might be able to make money if things fell into place.

I haven't spent a ton of hours counting, but in the time I have I've rarely seen the count get very high, or very low for that matter, in a 6-deck shoe game. That's all I play cause that's all they have where I live. Anyways, this was the first time that I had actually seen more than one shoe with really good counts that stayed that way. That's what I meant with the title "when it works" because I was flat betting and when the count got good I kicked up the bet, ramping to my max bet which you consider too small. But still, the basics that I've picked up here helped me to make the most of it when things got lucky.

I love how you think I can maybe divide by 6, I love how you have to act like your math skills are so superior to everyone else's. You don't know me. I'm not putting down your math skills or intellect, am I?

Rukus, what kind of profit did you make last year playing BJ? In units or dollars, either way. I want you to post it so that we can quickly attribute any positive number to luck and discount anything you personally might've had to do with it.

And I never said it was skill, or that it was supposed to happen. You're continually using a straw-man argument and putting words in my mouth. I said it was luck, I knew it was luck, IT'S ALWAYS LUCK. You use your AP skills to capitalize on the times when luck swings in your favor.

it's ALWAYS luck/SD


This is the truth. It's all about understanding that SD.
If Rukus (or anyone) thinks that luck is not involved at ALL TIMES then they'd better go back and relook at their 1-2% advantage and think about what that really means.

Being AP does include finding and trying to play the best games, but doesn't it take a fair amount MORE determination, perserverence, skill, and luck to come out ahead vs. a crappy set of rules then it does to come out ahead vs. the most favorable rules?

Good job on Hawkeye, and supporters.

Rukus, from the perspective of one reading this forum as a learner, I can tell that the idea behind what you've said may be sound, but did not find what you've said in this thread to be a constructive or helpful manner of criticism.

You see most of the people on this site THINK they are proffesional whatevers, but most of them are just want to be. Some of them only play on their computers and run sims. Some don't have the guts to step into a casino and risk their money. Some would never think of just going out and having a good time and playing for fun. I am glad you had some fun and made some money with it. That's what life is all about. To go through life as stiff and rigid as a board is boring.

I second that emotion. LUCK is always involved wheter it it good or bad. May Fortuna the goddess of luck be with you always.



Fortuna governs the circle of the four stages of life, the Wheel of Fortune, in a manuscript of Carmina BuranaIn Roman mythology, Fortuna (equivalent to the Greek goddess Tyche) goddess of fortune, was the personification of luck, hopefully of good luck, but she could be represented veiled and blind, as modern depictions of Justice are seen, and came to represent the capriciousness of life. Atrox Fortuna claimed the lives of Augustus' two hopeful grandsons, educated to take up princely roles,[1] for she was also a goddess of fate. Her father was Jupiter, and she had no lovers or children of her own, but Fortuna was propitiated by mothers.

Fortuna had a retinue that included Copia, "bounty", among her blessings. Under the name Annonaria she protected grain supplies. In the Roman calendar, June 11 was sacred to Fortuna, with a greater festival to Fors Fortuna on the 24th.

Traditionally her cult was said to be introduced to Rome by Servius Tullius. Fortuna had a temple in the Forum Boarium and a public sanctuary on the Quirinalis, as the tutelary genius of Roma herself, Fortuna Populi Romani, the "Fortune of the Roman people", for Fortuna, the embodiment of the chaotic chance event as modern historians would see it, was closely tied by the Romans to virtus, strength of character; flaws in the main public actors brought on the calamities of ill fortune, as Roman historians like Sallust saw her role: "Truly, when in the place of work, idleness, in place of the spirit of measure and equity, caprice and pride invade, fortune is changed just as with morality".[2]

At an oracle in Praeneste connected with the Temple of Fortuna Muliebris the future was chosen by a small boy choosing oak rods with possible futures written on them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortuna

I have to second this motion and Hard:whip::whip::whip:
good job blackjack 2:whip:

Inplay nice history dude, we need more posts like that. Keep it up.

Thanks dude.

The way you increase your spread with a smaller bankroll is by reducing the size of your minimum bets, not by increasing your max. If you can't decrease your min, you wong. When I first started out, my max bet was $25. Now, I knew that wonging was important, and did it more often than not, but I didn't realize that I needed to have been doing it exclusively.

To really appreciate how horrible it is, I think you need to run a sim (there might be some numbers in blackjack attack, but possibly not for a ramp that small). anyway, download powersim, and plunk in the numbers for your game. It will probably take you an hour to get the sim figured out. The risk of ruin numbers will be truly depressing (the EV per 100 hands numbers would probably be depressing even with a big spread).

Also, bear in mind that the shoes where the "count stays high", are, retroactively, terrifying. It means that the high cards weren't coming out but you were still betting big. In other words, you're getting the same damn cards you'd expect off the top of a shuffle, but you're betting your max for it. Unfortunately, this is an unavoidable luck aspect of counting.