16 vs 7
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Automatic Monkey
Banned
It would take an extremely high count, and probably a special count too. The reason is that unlike hitting a 16 vs. 10, if you make any kind of a hand you have a decent chance of winning.
So let the mouth do his job of filling up the rack for you.
If I knew the next card was an ace, and I was on 3b, and my partner was on 1b; I would stand & hope to high heaven the dealer DID have a 17.
Otherwise, I would stand if the true count was +20 or higher. I play the Revere 14 count; this probably translates into something like +12 for a simple plus-minus count.
Otherwise, I would stand if the true count was +20 or higher. I play the Revere 14 count; this probably translates into something like +12 for a simple plus-minus count.
tribute
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Every book I've read, every message board, every strategy card, every website, all say HIT 16 vs 7. The wise guy next to me was not counting and declared himself an expert and said I should ALWAYS stand. I think I should adopt new table manners and not talk to anyone about playing decisions. If they don't agree with me, I will just remain silent, look straight at the dealer and wait for the cards to be dealt.
You are absolutely correct. It's always a bad habit to talk strategy at a blackjack table. Next thing you know, you've got people analyzing every play; players, dealers, even bosses. While this would be ok for a basic strategy player; what happens when the count is such that you have to hit 14 v. dealers 6, or stand on 15 vs. 9; after you've already proved to the world that you know perfect basic strategy?
The BEST thing you can ever say at a blackjack table is: NOTHING.
creeping panther
Banned
Sucker
You know I mostly tell people I am new and just finding my way around, sorry.
Seems to work, except the dealer almost always gives me a funny look:laugh:
CP
You know I mostly tell people I am new and just finding my way around, sorry.
Seems to work, except the dealer almost always gives me a funny look:laugh:
CP
rrwoods
Well-Known Member
I don't find this to be the case at all. A silent blackjack player seems like a red flag to me. The more jovial and talkative I am, the less I look like a counter.
I talk **** all the time at the BJ table, I give other players **** about their plays that they do whenever they make a play that isn't perfect stratagy (including index plays)
I think it makes me look more like a ploppie when I tell someone to stand on 12 vs 2, or hit 12 vs 6, or stand 15/16 vs 10. Whenever they tell me its not the right play I tell them "stop playing with your head and play with your gut"
creeping panther
Banned
I talk **** all the time at the BJ table, I give other players **** about their plays that they do whenever they make a play that isn't perfect stratagy (including index plays)
I might think twice about that
I think it makes me look more like a ploppie when I tell someone to stand on 12 vs 2, or hit 12 vs 6, or stand 15/16 vs 10. Whenever they tell me its not the right play I tell them "stop playing with your head and play with your gut"
I like the "Playing with the Gut" thing, you should incorporate that in another way.
CP
This is very true, and I did not make myself clear. I was speaking in the context of blackjack STRATEGY. Talk about the weather. Talk about your kids. Talk about the pretty girl who just walked by. These will ADD to your act. Just don't talk about playing strategies. This is ESPECIALLY true when playing some of the more advanced strategies, where any scrutiny of the hyper-aggressive plays that you must make runs a great risk of being picked off.
I have been criticized for standing with 16 against a 10 on one hand, then hitting 16 against a 7 on the next. When asked what sense that could possibly make, I would shrug my shoulders and say, "I'm a poker player, Man. Hittin' 16 against a 10 feels like I'm tryin' to make an inside straight. But 16 against a 7 feels more like I'm goin' for an open-end straight 'cause I have over double the "outs". Ya'know -- any hit that doesn't bust me will probably win the hand? Know what I mean?"
That gives them the real answer without sounding like a blackjack scholar. If they have ears, let them hear. But most often, they just shake their heads.
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pooptarts92
Well-Known Member
Yeah halves uses the same index, true 9 and 16 is a wave vs 7. what's wierd is that the surrender index is true 11... does this make sense to anyone?
tribute
Well-Known Member
What I have always wondered about the typical "ploppie" is this: On what do they base their sacred blackjack beliefs? Where does their method come from?
When I first took an interest in the game, I knew the house has a built in advantage, and If I want to have any chance at all, I better get some learning. To me, any other approach is insane.
A legend in his own mind. He probably thought he was an expert because he had been playing a long time.
When you say "sacred" it makes me think of The Flow. My feeling about that is that some people just can't handle randomness, and think that someone, or something, must have put the cards in some kind of order.
Way back in ancient times (the 70s) I played blackjack with some guys in the barracks. I had no idea what I was doing, and just did whatever seemed right. We may have offered some advice back and forth, but none of us really knew anything.
In more modern times (the 00s) I decided to try blackjack again. This time I had sense enough to do some research before playing. So I knew BS before I went to the casino. A lot of people probably don't even know there is a proper way to play their hand, and just do whatever seems to work for them.
And if they do that long enough, they think they're an expert.
When I wrote my blackjack simulator about 15 years ago, I programmed it to play using the counting system which I use, the Revere 14 count. So I can explain this phenomenon using MY numbers. My matrix numbers are +20 for standing and +26 for surrender.
In order to surrender a hand, the hand MUST have an expectation of -50% or worse. What this means is that if you can win more than one out of four times, it's NOT correct to surrender.
When the count is +20; if you hit 16 vs. 7, your expectation is -52.83%. If you stand, your expectation is -49.29%. Therefore, you would stand, but NOT surrender.
When the count is +26; if you hit, your expectation is -56.46. If you stand, your expectation is -50.21. So obviously, it would still be better to stand, BUT; the count is NOW so high, and there are SO many tens left in the deck; if you stand, the dealer will HAVE 17, or at least MAKE a hand; more than 75% of the time. Therefore the BEST play is to surrender, if the rules allow it.
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
Its pretty uncommon, for the index to get high enough to warrant standing on 16v7 in "Multi-deck" games, but when playing single and double deck, these are fairly important plays for ho2 and ao2. The index, for this hand, with these counts are +14, whcih does come up from time to time. The Ace side count, is important, for this hand as well.
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