Tips to remembering ace key cards?

Richard Munchkin said:
Not sure what you mean by multiple occurrences, but using just 1 key would mean you would bet into many false sequences. This would increase variance and lower your edge.
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Multiple occurrences means more than one key per betting opportunity.

Here are a couple of examples- you are playing 8D, and the Two of Clubs was keyed to an ace twice for the last shoe. Betting now makes it the equivalent of single-key on a 4D game, which is playable.

Or the Two of Clubs and Four of Spades are both single keys, and both of them turn up in the positions where you are looking for your key cards. That is also approximately a 4D game, and if they were both keyed twice it is like a DD game, and so on.

There are a few benefits to this method, the first being practicability, in that it is a very VERY rare talent to be able to double-key 20+ aces. I'm good for 4, without moving my lips or anything. :laugh: But I can single-key them all, probably a lot of people can do that with practice.

So let's say you can only double-key a few, you are going to to end up having to go to the table max on your hits if you are going to get any money out of it, because you are only going to get a hit per hour or so. This can also increase variance and draw a lot of attention from the pit. But using a multiple-single-key approach yields a lot more betting opportunities (maybe 2-10 per shoe, depending on a few variables) and much more earthly advantages on the order of 1-4%, so your spread won't be much bigger than a card counter's spread, but without being correlated to any count.

Just my thoughts, I think a method like this might work a little better for most people in most stores than double-key.
 
regarding ace prediction

Assuming you can predict the coming of an ace based on your key card(s), do you have much advantage if the ace comes during a low count (low probability of getting a face card)? It seems to me that if the ace comes during a low count, the effort may not be as useful as simple counting.
 
psyduck said:
Assuming you can predict the coming of an ace based on your key card(s), do you have much advantage if the ace comes during a low count (low probability of getting a face card)? It seems to me that if the ace comes during a low count, the effort may not be as useful as simple counting.
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Please give me an ace in any count, but as you say, preferably a plus count.
 
am a bit lost of this topic, i have a vague idea what ace sequencing means. But i don't see how it can works?

So when the ace comes out during the play, you would remember 2 cards just before the ace? But once they start shuffling, the key cards and ace won't be together anymore? Do you then to predict?

IT all seems to have too much variance to try and hit the ace on your hand, or do you play several hands ?

Thanks
Ming
 
psyduck said:
It seems to me that if the ace comes during a low count, the effort may not be as useful as simple counting.
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Think of it this way. In a neutral count an ace as a first card has about a 52% advantage. In a massive - count (SD, no tens, aces or nines left and all 2-8 remaining TC -37) you still have an advantage of almost 3%! I'll take it.:grin:
 
ycming said:
am a bit lost of this topic, i have a vague idea what ace sequencing means. But i don't see how it can works?

So when the ace comes out during the play, you would remember 2 cards just before the ace? But once they start shuffling, the key cards and ace won't be together anymore? Do you then to predict?

IT all seems to have too much variance to try and hit the ace on your hand, or do you play several hands ?

Thanks
Ming
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If you thought the ace or aces were coming out next round, what would you do? This may or may not be a rhetorical question.
 
HockeXpert said:
Think of it this way. In a neutral count an ace as a first card has about a 52% advantage. In a massive - count (SD, no tens, aces or nines left and all 2-8 remaining TC -37) you still have an advantage of almost 3%! I'll take it.:grin:
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These are some good points. However, without a good chance of catching a BJ, the player does not have an advantage over the dealer because the ace can go to the dealer's hand, I think.
 
psyduck said:
These are some good points. However, without a good chance of catching a BJ, the player does not have an advantage over the dealer because the ace can go to the dealer's hand, I think.
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The dealer could get them either way. If he gets them in a big negative deck, he has 2 shots to make his hand with all those low cards. That is almost a sure thing for the dealer. You have the same situation but unless you are a really good card tracker in SD you probably wont hit your stiff with ace against a bust card. How many of you would realize only 2-8 are left? If you would you would be hitting everything 13 or below. This is why PE is so important in SD.
 
tthree said:
The dealer could get them either way. If he gets them in a big negative deck, he has 2 shots to make his hand with all those low cards. That is almost a sure thing for the dealer. You have the same situation but unless you are a really good card tracker in SD you probably wont hit your stiff with ace against a bust card. How many of you would realize only 2-8 are left? If you would you would be hitting everything 13 or below. This is why PE is so important in SD.
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I don't think any level 2 system tracks 8 in the main count though.
 
psyduck said:
These are some good points. However, without a good chance of catching a BJ, the player does not have an advantage over the dealer because the ace can go to the dealer's hand, I think.
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If you are playing two hands, you have a better chance than the dealer of getting the ace. Also, if the separation between the ace and two key cards is fairly predictable, you should have a good idea when you have the better chance of getting the ace.
 
tthree said:
The dealer could get them either way. If he gets them in a big negative deck, he has 2 shots to make his hand with all those low cards. That is almost a sure thing for the dealer. You have the same situation but unless you are a really good card tracker in SD you probably wont hit your stiff with ace against a bust card. How many of you would realize only 2-8 are left? If you would you would be hitting everything 13 or below. This is why PE is so important in SD.
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PE or playing efficiency is important in single deck because how quickly you gain advantage (EV) as the true count gets higher and higher above your index is a function of correlation of your count to the EOR values for the hand match up. In SD the range of TCs and frequency of extreme TCs becomes much greater so you exceed your indices by a much greater amount. High correlation (PE) reaps big gains in EV. Side counts are far easier to keep in SD which can greatly impact your PE. They are not statically joined to to a group of other cards giving strong and weakly correlated indices. They can be adjusted in whatever direction and magnitude the RC adjustment needs for its match ups were it has a strong affect on the correct play. This boost PE greatly. Even side counting cards in the main count that are important key cards boost your PE significantly. Look at the most frequent match ups and your poorest correlated indices and decide what are the most important cards to side count for your count to boost PE.
 
aslan said:
If you are playing two hands, you have a better chance than the dealer of getting the ace. Also, if the separation between the ace and two key cards is fairly predictable, you should have a good idea when you have the better chance of getting the ace.
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Sure, if you play four hands, you further increase the chance of catching that ace. But how much are you willing to risk for that ace? If it happens to be in low counts, even if one of your hands catches the ace, the rest are still at disadvantage.
 
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