ROR...again..

R

Rspeirsmlb

Well-Known Member
I'm looking for a way to calculate ROR. I'm looking for about 1% and am trying to determine what kind of spread I need with a $25 minimum bet. I'm trying to run real life simulations at my place so I can practice my counting and want to keep a record of how I turn out with play money. (6D, DAS, DOA, 75% pen) Does someone have an equation handy for this? thanks.
 
Rspeirsmlb said:
I'm looking for a way to calculate ROR. I'm looking for about 1% and am trying to determine what kind of spread I need with a $25 minimum bet. I'm trying to run real life simulations at my place so I can practice my counting and want to keep a record of how I turn out with play money. (6D, DAS, DOA, 75% pen) Does someone have an equation handy for this? thanks.
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When you say that your minimum bet is $25, is that your unit size or your minimum bet. There is a difference and can be a huge difference in spread and bankroll needed. If $25 is your unit I would suggest that you make your minimum bet $10 and your max bet $150. Playing this way you have a unit spread of 1-6 but a bet spread of 1-15. You will be playing well below your unit during times when you don't have the advantage, and when the count calls for a 1 unit bet you will already have 2.5 of your minimum bet out there. If you wong out during -1 counts or worse your game should be pretty strong. I think a lot of people are under the impression that their minimum bet is their unit size, but if your bankroll can support a larger unit than a table minimum bet, than it can be quite beneficial to structure your game in this manner.
 
Bojack1 said:
I think a lot of people are under the impression that their minimum bet is their unit size
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*raises hand sheepishly*

Yeah, I'm one of those guys, and ya lost me. What's the difference between spreading $10-$100 and calling your unit $10, and $10-$100 and calling your unit $25?
 
This will be interesting

I sometimes play two hands of 1/2 unit if I want to eat up cards, but I think there's more to what he's saying than that. I'm interested to hear what it is.
 
EasyRhino said:
*raises hand sheepishly*

Yeah, I'm one of those guys, and ya lost me. What's the difference between spreading $10-$100 and calling your unit $10, and $10-$100 and calling your unit $25?
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Let's say you're playing with a 25 dollar unit size, and you are playing at a 10 dollar minimum table. Instead of making your lowest bet 25 (your unit size), you can make your minimum bet lower than your unit size (10 dollars).

Of course that increases your betting spread, so be careful of that.
 
To play optimally you can't just call your unit what ever you want it to be. It should be sized in proportion to your bankroll. If your bankroll can support a $25 unit than it is a boost to your expected value to bet less than your unit at times that you don't have the advantage. At the same time it hurts your expected value to not take full advantage of your unit size and your advantage when you get it. In your example with a $10 unit spreading $10 -$100 you would be betting your full unit even during times with no advantage which isn't good, but you would be betting 10 units as your max bet. Your bet spread is 1-10. If your unit is $25, you will be betting under your unit when there is no advantage which is good but you will be underbetting your unit with only 4 units as your max bet. Your bet spread here is also 1-10. Like I said before if your unit is $25 but your minimum bet is $10 and max is $150, you will be betting under your unit when there is no advantage, you will be betting 6 units at your max bet, but your bet spread is 1-15 which is a boost to your expected value. You could even up what you're top unit bet would be, but there needs to be a realistical understanding of what you can spread to in a casino with out catching heat. The example I gave is totally realistic and usually would cause no need for suspicion. I'm sure most of you have heard to beat a 6 or 8 deck game requires a large spread. Well thats true, but with this way you get the big spread without risking too many units, whether it be times with or without the advantage.
 
In a very non-precise way, I approached the problem from the different direction.

First thing determined is the side of the big bet (assuming single hand play, not two hands). That is determined in proportion to your bankroll. Let's say you figure out that your max supportable bet is $100.

Min bet is determined by a combination of table minimums and whatever you can get away with. So, in our hypothetical example, that's either $10 or $5 unit, depending on which joint you're in.

Is that just two different ways at arriving at the same conclusion, or is there something more subtle I'm missing?
 
EasyRhino said:
In a very non-precise way, I approached the problem from the different direction.

First thing determined is the side of the big bet (assuming single hand play, not two hands). That is determined in proportion to your bankroll. Let's say you figure out that your max supportable bet is $100.

Min bet is determined by a combination of table minimums and whatever you can get away with. So, in our hypothetical example, that's either $10 or $5 unit, depending on which joint you're in.

Is that just two different ways at arriving at the same conclusion, or is there something more subtle I'm missing?
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I believe where we differ is I do not figure my max bet with my bankroll. I only figure what my unit size will be using a fraction of Kelly. We use .4 by the way. With that I figure what my bet spread will be based on casino conditions. But with a 6 deck game I will always make sure my max bet is at least 6 units. But remember that is not my bet spread because my minimum bet is always going to be less than my unit. The bet spread will usually be 1-12 or 1-15 if playing single. When playing with a team it can be astronomical if the spotters flat bet a minimum and the big player only plays the units. For example if there is a spotter sitting at a $10 table and he never raises his bet but the team unit is $100. With a 1-6 unit spread you get a 1-60 bet spread, and usually with this type of play you could easily bump up your spread by a couple of units to give you a bet spread in the 1-80 or 1-100 range. Basically what I'm saying is in my opinion finding the proper base unit is most important. Than develop a spread around that. My rule of thumb is if your minimum bet can be at 1/2 of your unit than 6 units will be enough to play a good ev game, if you can get away with more, all the better.
 
Using Kelly is best for minimal ROR. Our unit size is 1600. Yet we can play a green chip if the count dictates or the skilled player can not track or hole card the given shoe.

If you stick with a kelly betting schema, use 10/1. Yet you will have to have the minimum br to do so. if you play a 10 dollar table bring 10,000. Or at a 6/1 5260 or 5300 to round up. Something like that..

If you are under funded, you will be looking at a marginal win or, several hours looking to get ahead. Been there.
 
Canceler said:
I sometimes play two hands of 1/2 unit if I want to eat up cards, but I think there's more to what he's saying than that. I'm interested to hear what it is.
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You should be playing 1 hand at your max bet and one at 70% of your max. Yet, the count will tell you when to do this. Again if you are underfunded and playing solo at the table.Walk away or if there are others at the table to eat up the low cards, wong the shit out of that at or below a neg count.
 
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mdlbj said:
Using Kelly is best for minimal ROR. Our unit size is 1600. Yet we can play a green chip if the count dictates or the skilled player can not track or hole card the given shoe.

If you stick with a kelly betting schema, use 10/1. Yet you will have to have the minimum br to do so. if you play a 10 dollar table bring 10,000. Or at a 6/1 5260 or 5300 to round up. Something like that..

If you are under funded, you will be looking at a marginal win or, several hours looking to get ahead. Been there.
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I agree that using kelly for setting your betting unit is best, but make sure its a fraction of kelly. But if are playing a 10 dollar unit even at .3 kelly which is as conservative as most get, MIT played at this for years, you would only need a total bankroll of $8870. A weekend trip you wouldn't need to bring more than $1200 to $1500 for a well funded trip bankroll with a 10 dollar unit.

On a different note, mdlbj you say your unit is $1600. That is the same size unit that the MIT teams played with for a while. But I must say we haven't been able to play anything close to that size unit in years due to the heat it brings. No matter how good you are playing that much brings some real attention and At least in Vegas most call ins, if your team plays this way, the table max at the mid shoe entry tables couldn't handle the action. I'm just kind of curious how your pulling it off.
 
mdlbj said:
Using Kelly is best for minimal ROR. Our unit size is 1600. Yet we can play a green chip if the count dictates or the skilled player can not track or hole card the given shoe.

If you stick with a kelly betting schema, use 10/1. Yet you will have to have the minimum br to do so. if you play a 10 dollar table bring 10,000. Or at a 6/1 5260 or 5300 to round up. Something like that..

If you are under funded, you will be looking at a marginal win or, several hours looking to get ahead. Been there.
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Several hours looking to get ahead? Dude, you can plan on several hundred hours looking to get ahead! Team play or not. Even the best SD games have a N0 of 4500 or so.
 
So if all I have available to me in my area is $25 min tables, 6D, S17, DAS, no surrender, 75% penetration, no mid-shoe entry...I'm assuming I need a bankroll to support a $50 unit. Now if I want to use .4 Kelly, how much of a bankroll do I need? And how many units should I take for a single session if I use a 1-8 spread? Thanks for any responses that I receive.
 
blackstack said:
So if all I have available to me in my area is $25 min tables, 6D, S17, DAS, no surrender, 75% penetration, no mid-shoe entry...I'm assuming I need a bankroll to support a $50 unit. Now if I want to use .4 Kelly, how much of a bankroll do I need? And how many units should I take for a single session if I use a 1-8 spread? Thanks for any responses that I receive.
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You don't have to use a $50 unit, it would be great if you could, but not everyones bankroll allows to size their unit more than the table minimum. The game you explain is tough because with no mid shoe entry you can't even wong in and once you wong out you can't come back until the shoe's over. So for that game it would be ideal if you could have your unit be larger than the minimum. For a $50 unit at .4 kelly you would need over $30,000 as a total bankroll. Without knowing too many details of how you're playing, for a weekend trip averaging 16 hours of play I would generally bring at least 120-150 units. So try to figure the hours you plan to play and work off that guideline. Remember that is just a generic figure, if you plan on playing any type of high variance methods or are bringing multiple partners to play that number will change. My advice to you would be if you can afford this type of bankroll, than travel to a better game where you can play below your unit when possible.
 
mdlbj said:
You should be playing 1 hand at your max bet and one at 70% of your max.
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Almost but not quite....
You should bet two hands and 70% of what you would bet on one hand. So you would end up betting 140% of what you would have on one hand. There are very few reasons other than cover to bet a different amount on two hands, it just adds to varience.

RJT.
 
I was wondering about the lopsided bets myself. Although it could look pretty good from a ploppy voodoo standpoint if your bets got totally skewed because you thought that one spot was "luckier" than the other.
 
I agree. One method i think is particularly effective is to skew the bet but ensure that it totals to the same base amount. So say that you would have bet $100 on one hand, when you spread to two hands you should bet $70 on each, but how about betting $50 and $90 or $40 and $100? It looks very good to anyone watching, the only problem is that it dramatically increases varience so you need to make sure that your bankroll can withstand it (if you were playing at 0.3 Kelly i wouldn't foresee it being a problem).

RJT.
 
Bojack1 said:
I agree that using kelly for setting your betting unit is best, but make sure its a fraction of kelly. But if are playing a 10 dollar unit even at .3 kelly which is as conservative as most get, MIT played at this for years, you would only need a total bankroll of $8870. A weekend trip you wouldn't need to bring more than $1200 to $1500 for a well funded trip bankroll with a 10 dollar unit.

On a different note, mdlbj you say your unit is $1600. That is the same size unit that the MIT teams played with for a while. But I must say we haven't been able to play anything close to that size unit in years due to the heat it brings. No matter how good you are playing that much brings some real attention and At least in Vegas most call ins, if your team plays this way, the table max at the mid shoe entry tables couldn't handle the action. I'm just kind of curious how your pulling it off.
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High roller rooms. And it helps to know some celebs.
 
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