12 against a dealer 2 or 3 up card

[SPX]

I doubt if Fred included 11 vs 10 as an example. What other plays did he recommend? Did he really suggest 12 vs 2 or 3?

Fred lists a hierarchy of play, in which each level supercedes the previous level. These are:

4) Basic Strategy
3) Hand Composition
2) Board Composition
1) The Count

A few of the plays he mentions include deviating from basic strategy on:

12 vs 4
13 vs 2
16 vs 10
9 vs 2
A/7 vs 2
A/8 vs 6
11 vs A

In regard to doubling 11 vs 10, it's not one of Fred's plays but it is one of mine. In my experience, with a ton of high cards on the board, more often than not you'll double and get stuck with 13 (or some such total) and the dealer will draw to a made hand. Doesn't always work out that way, but too often it does.

Consider the OPP system. The guy who came up with it determined that, on average, each hand should have one high card and one low card. With 8 tens distributed to 4 players, that's way above average. For the player who doesn't count, that's information to carefully consider.

 

[Kasi]

In regard to doubling 11 vs 10, it's not one of Fred's plays but it is one of mine.

Strangely enough all, or almost all, of those plays u mention have an index of zero. So they are close plays basically. Fine, do it then, if u must.

As for doubling 11 vs 10, I just don't see why you have to go out of ur way to not double a hand you will win over 50% of the time.

Although I see alot of players afraid to do it. For some of them it's enough that the prior card dealt was a 10 so they don't double because they think 2 10's in a row isn't very likely.

It's not one of Fred's plays, it's not one of mine, and it shouldn't be one of yours. You couldn't see enough tens in one round to justify it.

BTW, how many tens are a "ton"? At what point will u finally double?

Just trying to save u a buck SPX

If you have any other plays u invented with this technique, let me know and I'll try to help.

After all, if ur counting the high cards and low cards in any given round, why not just do it every round? Now u actually have some information to act on!

 

[SPX]

Strangely enough all, or almost all, of those plays u mention have an index of zero. So they are close plays basically. Fine, do it then, if u must.

As for doubling 11 vs 10, I just don't see why you have to go out of ur way to not double a hand you will win over 50% of the time.

Although I see alot of players afraid to do it. For some of them it's enough that the prior card dealt was a 10 so they don't double because they think 2 10's in a row isn't very likely.

It's not one of Fred's plays, it's not one of mine, and it shouldn't be one of yours. You couldn't see enough tens in one round to justify it.

BTW, how many tens are a "ton"? At what point will u finally double?

Just trying to save u a buck SPX

If you have any other plays u invented with this technique, let me know and I'll try to help.

After all, if ur counting the high cards and low cards in any given round, why not just do it every round? Now u actually have some information to act on!

I will generally double 11 vs 10, even if a higher-than-average number of tens comes out, but not if it's well above average. To use my previous example, 8 tens and no low cards to 4 players is well above average.

To answer your other question, I know how to do KO Rookie but can't do it at casino speeds. But even if I could, the tiny advantage and huge bankroll requirements wouldn't make it worth it for me. I like to relax, drink, talk to other players, get distracted by the progressive jackpot displays, etc.

The truth is that I use a betting system that has me well ahead of the game and it takes a lot less work and can also be used online. (There's no need to go into all the reasons why a betting system can't change the edge.) It requires a much smaller bankroll and makes playing a more relaxed experience.

 

[sabre]

I will generally double 11 vs 10, even if a higher-than-average number of tens comes out, but not if it's well above average. To use my previous example, 8 tens and no low cards to 4 players is well above average.

That's fine. Just as its fine to split 44 vs a T, and double 13 vs a 6. It's going to cost you a lot of money, but if it increases your enjoyment of the game, then I'm all for it.

If your only concern is making the play with the greatest expected return, then 11vT should be doubled at all true counts > -5. To achieve a TC < -5 using only the current board composition, you would need to see 25 more tens than 2-6s in the current round. This would require 13 other players, each of whom have been dealt a pat 20.

Legitimate board composition strategy deviations are determined in the same way index plays are determined through standard counting. You are simply starting with a RC of 0, with 5 3/4 or so decks remaining in a 6 deck shoe. Instead of describing these plays in terms of this instantaneous RC calculation and TC conversion, its a lot simpler to say "stand on 16 if there are more babies than tens showing on the board" or "double 9v2 if there are 5 more babies than tens".

 

[Kasi]

To achieve a TC < -5 using only the current board composition, you would need to see 25 more tens than 2-6s in the current round. This would require 13 other players, each of whom have been dealt a pat 20.

I hope he believes one of us anyway

U say it alot better than I do.

 

[sagefr0g]

..........
Consider the OPP system. The guy who came up with it determined that, on average, each hand should have one high card and one low card. ...

SPX, i'm curious as to whether you have a referance to this statement. i'd like to read further regarding that.

 

[Kasi]

..........
Consider the OPP system. The guy who came up with it determined that, on average, each hand should have one high card and one low card. ...

SPX, i'm curious as to whether you have a referance to this statement. i'd like to read further regarding that.

I don't know OPP but what is it that interests u about the statement?

Not that I even understand the statement - I mean what about the neutral cards?

 

[Kasi]

ITo answer your other question, I know how to do KO Rookie but can't do it at casino speeds. But even if I could, the tiny advantage and huge bankroll requirements wouldn't make it worth it for me. I like to relax, drink, talk to other players, get distracted by the progressive jackpot displays, etc.

The truth is that I use a betting system that has me well ahead of the game and it takes a lot less work and can also be used online. (There's no need to go into all the reasons why a betting system can't change the edge.) It requires a much smaller bankroll and makes playing a more relaxed experience.

Still, u can always apply the index plays even if u don't feel like doing the whole "counting thing" as far as increasing wagers etc. Bankroll is not effected. At least u will have reduced the HA. Not by much of course. Pretty much what I do just because I find it fun and it alleviates the boredom of robotic BS.

Always interested in betting systems in case u choose to share either publicly or privately.

As far as not being up to "casino speeds", just don't give a hand signal until ur ready. U control the pace basically. Just a suggestion.

 

[sagefr0g]

..........
Consider the OPP system. The guy who came up with it determined that, on average, each hand should have one high card and one low card. ...


I don't know OPP but what is it that interests u about the statement?

Not that I even understand the statement - I mean what about the neutral cards?

i'm curious as to what the OPP system developer's reasoning was and how he related it to the OPP system.

 

[Canceler]

i'm curious as to what the OPP system developer's reasoning was and how he related it to the OPP system.

From this article by Carlos Zilzer: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Easy_OPP_Card_Counting_System.htm

"Since the average blackjack hand contains 2.6 to 2.7 cards, and the proportion of low cards in a deck (and high cards in a deck) is exactly 1 out of every 2.6 cards, then it follows that the average player or dealer hand can be expected to receive one high card and one low card."

 

[sagefr0g]

From this article by Carlos Zilzer: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Easy_OPP_Card_Counting_System.htm

"Since the average blackjack hand contains 2.6 to 2.7 cards, and the proportion of low cards in a deck (and high cards in a deck) is exactly 1 out of every 2.6 cards, then it follows that the average player or dealer hand can be expected to receive one high card and one low card."

thank you much Canceler.

 

[Kasi]

From this article by Carlos Zilzer: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Easy_OPP_Card_Counting_System.htm

"Since the average blackjack hand contains 2.6 to 2.7 cards, and the proportion of low cards in a deck (and high cards in a deck) is exactly 1 out of every 2.6 cards, then it follows that the average player or dealer hand can be expected to receive one high card and one low card."

The only thing that bothers me about this are the number of pat 2 card hands dealt. Both high and low.

To make it extreme, while I agree with the total number of cards dealt, what if 80% of the hands were 2-cards. Then the other 20% of the hands would have to average 5 cards.

So to expect each hand to have a high and low card is probably not that realistic.

 

[sagefr0g]

The only thing that bothers me about this are the number of pat 2 card hands dealt. Both high and low.

To make it extreme, while I agree with the total number of cards dealt, what if 80% of the hands were 2-cards. Then the other 20% of the hands would have to average 5 cards.

So to expect each hand to have a high and low card is probably not that realistic.

well and like you posted earlier "what about the neutral cards". i'm just nosing around this information about the OPP count for now and it's confusing to me. just speed read Snyder's article (appropriate for a speed count right ) anyway the reasoning and approach is interesting.
but maybe part of what your saying above is a good bit of the idea from OPP that is significant. the pack starts out with overall symmetry but the balance of the symmetry can be present in a mind boggling array. the nature of it becomes known as the pack is dealt. seems rational that the degree to which the seen cards stray from a symmetric presentation could be significant with respect to what is likely to come.
from the article it appears that Snyder made the statement "Since the average blackjack hand contains 2.6 to 2.7 cards, and the proportion of low cards in a deck (and high cards in a deck) is exactly 1 out of every 2.6 cards, then it follows that the average player or dealer hand can be expected to receive one high card and one low card." and not the developer of OPP.
well i'm gonna read the article in depth as it seems one could learn something from it even if the OPP isn't such a powerful system.

 

[tedloc]

Read Fred Renzy

playing at a table with say 4 players and there is a 12 before you and he hits and you have 12 do you need to hit as there has already been a card taken ? I find everytime or alot of the time when I also hit I take the dealers bust card and am also busted . Any theories on this problem . You are playing an 8 deck game , DAS17, no surreneder , and a decent pen ND THE DEALER HAS A 2 OR 3 UP ? SORRY SHOULD OF BEEN MORE SPECIFIC BEFORE . TY in advance

You must be kidding about taking the dealers bust card. How do you know that the dealer doesn't have a 9 in the hole. Also even if you knew the dealer had a 9 and you knew the next two cards were 10/5 but didn't know the order, you still wouldn't know the best play.

 

[ChefJJ]

You must be kidding about taking the dealers bust card. How do you know that the dealer doesn't have a 9 in the hole. Also even if you knew the dealer had a 9 and you knew the next two cards were 10/5 but didn't know the order, you still wouldn't know the best play.

Right on. The "ten in the hole" standby mentality is absolutely worthless...non count-dependent, there's only a 4/13 chance that there's a ten-value card there. Not even a third of the times.

I remember hearing that when I first started, thought that makes sense because that is the most frequent value card. But then I learned BS, and you realize that you don't need to worry about what is under there (unless the dealer flashed it). Then with counting...whole other story.

good luck

 

[Mikeaber]

Poor poster who originally asked the question.....

He's not counting and this turned into quite a discussion concerning what to do when the deck was rich or poor (ie card counting).

This is a Basic Strategy question.

There are rules of thumb that I do not put a lot of importance to concerning what you might do if you have a 15 or 16 and the dealer has a face. That's such a close call that some of these "rules of thumb" to a non-counter might have a tiny bit of credibility. I'm speaking of the Rule of 45, and maybe making decisions based on what to do with more face cards showing in that hand than low cards.

But this question was strictly about YOU having a 12 and the dealer showing either a 2 or a 3. I have never seen a basic strategy card tell the player to do anything other than hit. Doesn't specify to hit only if there are more faces or low cards showing.

Basic Strategy for the non-counter states to hit the damn thing...and cringe when you do it! :laugh: You'll lose less if you hit it all the time unless you know something that the non card-counter might know (like seeing the hit card before you make your decision).