7 7 vs 8

Midwest Player

Well-Known Member
#42
DSchles said:
Maybe we ought to try to quantify just how much each deviation is worth, depending on rules and bet spread, and then rank them, beyond the I18 or Catch 22, in order of their importance. :):)

Do you think players might be interested in seeing that?

Don
I would like to see that.
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#44
Midwest Player said:
I would like to see that.
Split 7-7 vs. 8 has "IMMEASURABLE VALUE" beyond the immediate financial gain. Casino and bystanders may think you don't even know basic strategy well enough when you split 7-7 against 8 at high counts.
 
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The G Man

Well-Known Member
#45
moraine said:
Split 7-7 vs. 8 has "IMMEASURABLE VALUE" beyond the immediate financial gain. Casino and bystanders may think you don't even know basic strategy well enough when you split 7-7 against 8 at high counts.
Oh Yesss! IMMEASURABLE VALUE!!!
The hand frequency of 7-7 vs 8 is 0.00044414 and a true count of +3 or more (for splitting in 6 deck dealt 4.5/6) has a frequency of about 0.087
So you will have on average the opportunity to "impress the pitboss" (and the galery) with 0.00003864 frequency or ONCE every 25880 hands of Blackjack. If you play 100 hands / hour, this is about one in 259 hours of play for a full time player, say twice a year. You better send the pitboss a VIP invitation to make sure he won't miss these opportunities...

Like you said, this is IMMEASURABLE...
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#46
moraine said:
Split 7-7 vs. 8 has "IMMEASURABLE VALUE" beyond the immediate financial gain. Casino and bystanders may think you don't even know basic strategy well enough when you split 7-7 against 8 at high counts.
Yeah, what G Man said. This so rarely comes up it's not worth even considering. And the pit won't care or notice anyway, and it certainly won't throw him off when they are observing a large bet spread. Terrible advice.
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#47
Mind You: KNOWING 2-2 vs. 8, 3-3 vs. 8, 9-9 v. A, A-A vs. A, etc., in addition to 7-7 vs. 8 also has "IMMESURABLE VALUE" beyond immediate financial gain ONCE YOU REALIZE "Illustrious 18" are 18 ILLUSTRIOUS telltale signs to casinos as well.
 
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aceside

Active Member
#48
The G Man said:
Oh Yesss! IMMEASURABLE VALUE!!!
The hand frequency of 7-7 vs 8 is 0.00044414 and a true count of +3 or more (for splitting in 6 deck dealt 4.5/6) has a frequency of about 0.087
So you will have on average the opportunity to "impress the pitboss" (and the galery) with 0.00003864 frequency or ONCE every 25880 hands of Blackjack. If you play 100 hands / hour, this is about one in 259 hours of play for a full time player, say twice a year. You better send the pitboss a VIP invitation to make sure he won't miss these opportunities...

Like you said, this is IMMEASURABLE...
But the hand 7-7 vs 8 has a lot more value than either the hand 3-3 vs 8 or the hand 2-2 vs 8. Can you calculate how much more?
 

aceside

Active Member
#49
johndoe said:
Yeah, what G Man said. This so rarely comes up it's not worth even considering. And the pit won't care or notice anyway, and it certainly won't throw him off when they are observing a large bet spread. Terrible advice.
Not that bad. I actually split the hand 7-7vs8 when the true count is greater than 0 because my consideration is that the HiLo count is not strongly correlated to that hand. Another consideration is that I have found some software bugs in these simulations, so the simulation results are not totally reliable. In addition, I noticed that when the TC is extremely high, we should not split it. This means there is interval of the TC for the splitting decision for this hand.
 
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The G Man

Well-Known Member
#50
moraine said:
Mind You: KNOWING 2-2 vs. 8, 3-3 vs. 8, 9-9 v. A, A-A vs. A, etc., in addition to 7-7 vs. 8 also has "IMMESURABLE VALUE" beyond immediate financial gain ONCE YOU REALIZE "Illustrious 18" are 18 ILLUSTRIOUS telltale signs to casinos as well.
First thing first, I made a mistake on the hand frequency for 7,7 vs 8 in 6 decks. The 0.00044414 I gave was for 8 decks. This particular hand frequency for the 6 decks shoe game is worse at 0.00044043 and the final result should be that you will see this hand about once every 26098 hands or once in about 261 hours of play (no real difference from the previous result).

For the hands you mention, the frequencies are the same (0.00044043) but the TC you need are higher thus making them even more rare... You need +4 or more (5.21%) to split 3,3 vs 8 and +5 or more (2.77%)to split 2,2 vs 8.
Make the calculations and you get:
7,7 vs 8 = Once every 26098 hands (once every 261 hours of play)
3,3 vs 8 = Once every 43580 hands (once every 436 hours of play)
2,2 vs 8 = Once every 81968 hands (once every 820 hours of play)

All in all, if you play 500 hours/year (most people really don't) you will get to lay your "show" for the pitboss about 7-8 times IN TWO YEARS or about 4 times per year.

Sorry, but no matter how you want to present your approach/estimation, the fact remain: You are splitting hairs.
 

The G Man

Well-Known Member
#51
aceside said:
But the hand 7-7 vs 8 has a lot more value than either the hand 3-3 vs 8 or the hand 2-2 vs 8. Can you calculate how much more?
No it doesn't. These splits are "defensive splits". In all cases, you will save at most 1% on these particular bets by doing this.
 

The G Man

Well-Known Member
#53
aceside said:
The EV for 7-7 vs 8 is a lot higher...
Please stop throwing out affirmations you don't even understand. Actually, splitting 77 vs 8 at +3 has an EV about TWICE worse than splitting 22 vs 8 at +5
 

aceside

Active Member
#54
The G Man said:
Please stop throwing out affirmations you don't even understand. Actually, splitting 77 vs 8 at +3 has an EV about TWICE worse than splitting 22 vs 8 at +5
I think you are misleading the readers here. Anyway, have a good day.
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#56
aceside said:
Another consideration is that I have found some software bugs in these simulations, so the simulation results are not totally reliable
Oh really? Exactly what bugs have you found in precisely which simulators?
 

aceside

Active Member
#57
The G Man said:
No I don't. YOU DO. Not only here but on many Blackjack sites.
You should learn that game instead of improvising...
The 7,7vs8 hand appears just as frequently as any other pairs, but you impose the TC +3, or +5 on this hand to make it appear less frequently. It is still debatable on what TC values we should use, but you have already made it like a fact.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#59
This could be the stupidest thread and conversation I've seen in a while, and believe me when I tell you there's no scarcity of idiocy on blackjack sites.

Aceside and Moraine, you're debating with a former member of the MIT team who forgets more about BJ every day than the both of you combined will ever know in two lifetimes.

NO pair split--NONE!!--other than splitting tens, is worth even a single cent an hour for a player with a $10,000 bankroll, and most are worth much, much less than that. Using the word "valuable" in the same sentence as "7,7 vs. 8" makes the writer sound like an imbecile.

Don
 
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