Advice please

[FBN]

I'm sure you guys have a term for guys like me, but I'm going ask my dumb question anyway.
I make an occasional trip to the local river boat with $200, sit at the first table I come to and loose my money in $10 increments. My question is this; I like BJ and want to learn how to play and win. I've found a BS trainer and would greatly appreciate any advice.

 

[Mr. T]

I'm sure you guys have a term for guys like me, but I'm going ask my dumb question anyway.
I make an occasional trip to the local river boat with $200, sit at the first table I come to and loose my money in $10 increments. My question is this; I like BJ and want to learn how to play and win. I've found a BS trainer and would greatly appreciate any advice.

Expect to lose. You cannot win.

 

[FBN]

I meant lose not loose.
What I should've said was I'd like to learn how to play, be less of a nuisance to those who are serious and maybe make a little money in the process.

 

[Mr. T]

I understand you. Do you understand me.

 

[Harman]

Learn BS perfectly. Learn how to count cards using a good count - KO or High Low. Learn deviations. Learn how to camoflauge. Learn Bankroll management. Build a decent bankroll. Calculate your EV and ROR. Practice everything again. Maybe then you could go back to that river boat, choose a table with decent rules and a shoe - not CSM! Jump in when the TC reachs +2 and flat bet. Wong out when it gets to +1 or lower. Once you have some experience try betting according to the count when you wong. Good luck and you might want to try this website...

Blackjackapprenticeship.com

 

[rob2004]

I'm With You!

Dear FBN,

I think that the advice you have received is excellent. However, assuming that you have already mastered basic strategy, have been staying away from CSM's, are playing against the most favorable rules possible, and are already doing your best to manage your stake or bankroll, without trying either negative or positive progressions, it does not make sense that any of us would lose as consistently as we do. That is, unless there is something else going on that is effecting statistical probability. I have suggested that this unknown factor might be the card clumping that occurs when dealers pick up losing hands early, but the only response I have been able to get is that unless we learn how to count cards, we will continue to lose money. The problem is, that although card counting is fairly easy to learn, there are not many of us who have the ability to put it into effect. It is clear to me that the games are somehow being rigged, I just don' t know how to offset this effect other than to sit out as many hands as necessary, before you get a feel for the shoe returning to a reasonable win/loss ratio.

Rob

 

[cardcounter0]

it does not make sense that any of us would lose as consistently as we do. That is, unless there is something else going on that is effecting statistical probability.

Why does it not make sense that you would lose consistently? Plug the rules of your game into the game analyzer here. It will tell you what the HOUSE EDGE is. Notice that it is probably a negative number. That means that as long as statistical probablility works (and there is not something going on that effects it) you will lose.

Yes, the games are RIGGED! The dealer plays last. The player has to act first, if the player busts he loses, it does not matter if the dealer also busts later on that hand. Because of the play procedure, you will lose consistently in the long run, even if you play perfect basic strategy.

 

[ChefJJ]

Because of the play procedure, you will lose consistently in the long run, even if you play perfect basic strategy.

FBN,

At least you will be "losing less" over the long haul if you memorize and execute perfect basic strategy. And if you intend to play basic strategy, stick to relatively flat betting...progressions won't get you over that edge.

good luck

 

[GeorgeD]

Yes, the games are RIGGED! The dealer plays last. The player has to act first, if the player busts he loses, it does not matter if the dealer also busts later on that hand. Because of the play procedure, you will lose consistently in the long run, even if you play perfect basic strategy.

Damn those casinos! When are they going to change that stinking rule so we can all WIN all the time? :joker:

 

[zengrifter]

Dear FBN,

I think that the advice you have received is excellent. However, assuming that you have already mastered basic strategy, have been staying away from CSM's, are playing against the most favorable rules possible, and are already doing your best to manage your stake or bankroll, without trying either negative or positive progressions, it does not make sense that any of us would lose as consistently as we do. That is, unless there is something else going on that is effecting statistical probability. I have suggested that this unknown factor might be the card clumping that occurs when dealers pick up losing hands early, but the only response I have been able to get is that unless we learn how to count cards, we will continue to lose money. The problem is, that although card counting is fairly easy to learn, there are not many of us who have the ability to put it into effect. It is clear to me that the games are somehow being rigged, I just don' t know how to offset this effect other than to sit out as many hands as necessary, before you get a feel for the shoe returning to a reasonable win/loss ratio.

Rob

Are you really David Pom? zg

 

[rob2004]

Will The Real House Edge Please Stand Up, or David Who?

Sorry... I'm just me. Not knowing who David Pom is, I'm not sure if this is a compliment or insult, but either way, I still don't understand what GeorgeD, or Cardcounter0 are talking about. Of course I realize that the house will always have an edge. I may be relatively new to the game, but I am not stupid. What I can't figure out is that this should only mean that the house will win MOST of the time, not ALL of the time, unless that edge is ridiculously high, which, of course it isn't SUPPOSED to be. What I have seen (over the course of the last few years) are dealers not busting on 4's, 5's, or 6's nearly as often as they should, while beating 19's with 20's, 20's with 21's, and even pushing blackjacks FAR more ofen than simple statistical probability (even with the house edge) should allow, and I'm not the only one who believes this. To paraphrase, Me thinks there is most definately something rotten in the state of Denmark, and it ISN't our ability to play the game! None of us expect to get rich, or believe that blackjack is an easy game to beat. So stop talking down to us. All we want is a fair game (which seems to be getting harder and harder to find) or an advantage over whatever deviousness seems to be afoot.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Human Nature vs Nature of the Game

Rather then being cheated, it is probably one or a combination of these things:

Do you card count? Maybe your game is not as strong as you think it is. Even if you are just using BS, you can still be making mistakes.

The variance is very high, if you are a card counter or just BS, you are like a leaf in the storm.

If you bet big for a brief time but lose badly, this will effect your bottom line. True for anyone.

People often remember the bad, if we take a beating we can't comprehend it.:joker::whip:



It is possible in a hand held game you could face a cheating dealer.

I really doubt a large corporately owned casino would have widespread cheating.

If you truly suspect cheating from a particular dealer or casino then don't play.

 

[cardcounter0]

What I have seen (over the course of the last few years) are dealers not busting on 4's, 5's, or 6's nearly as often as they should, while beating 19's with 20's, 20's with 21's, and even pushing blackjacks FAR more ofen than simple statistical probability (even with the house edge) should allow

Okay, I'll play along.
Question 1 --
Exactly how often should a dealer bust on:
4's?
5's?
6's?

Exactly how many non-busts have you observed over exactly how many hands?
(We will need both numbers, maybe the 'nearly as often' you have observed and recorded is actually less than 1/2 of a standard deviation from what they 'should be' busting, and simple statistical probablility will tell you that the variance is perfectly reasonable).

Question 2 --
Exactly how often will a dealer get:
19's with 20's?
20's with 21's?
Push Blackjacks?

Exactly how often have you observed, over exactly how many hands?

Don't get flustered that you don't have the second part of the numbers,
just answer the first part (let's see if what you have seen is actually off from how often it "should" happen)

DO YOU KNOW HOW OFTEN THESE "SHOULD" HAPPEN?
how often should a dealer bust on: 4's? 5's? 6's?
how often will a dealer get: 19's with 20's? 20's with 21's? Push Blackjacks?

I assume you are observing full tables, if you can't come up with the numbers for these, then how can you say it is happening more than it "should", if you don't know the simple statistical probability of what "should" is?

 

[EasyRhino]

FBN, to answer your question, well, technically, you didn't ask a question in your original post. But you can do things like learning perfect basic strategy, keeping a sharp eye for payout errors, and betting with other players who are scared to split/double in advantageous conditions, that will cut the house edge to minimal level, but you'll still be losing long term.

rob, one factoid you may not have seen is that dealer wins a substantial majority of hands. It's something like 49% dealer win, 42% player win, 9% push. The only reason the house edge is so small is that blackjacks/splits/doubles increase the size of the average winning hand.

 

[cardcounter0]

To follow along with Rhinos theme:

Everything he said, plus Play perfect BS (can't say that enough). Always play at full tables. Look for slow and chatty dealers. Take your time. When the Pit is watching make your bets larger. Sit out a few hands thru out the shoe. Take a lot of bathroom breaks. Make sure the Pit sees you tip the dealers now an then. Be nice. Be nice twice. Have fun.

With a low house edge game of less than 1/2%, you might be getting comped more than you lose if you play slower than they calculate, keep the comp clock running even when you aren't playing, and make them think you are betting more than you actually are.

Lose a little at the tables, win with the comps.

 

[krypto]

What I have seen (over the course of the last few years) are dealers not busting on 4's, 5's, or 6's nearly as often as they should, while beating 19's with 20's, 20's with 21's, and even pushing blackjacks FAR more ofen than simple statistical probability (even with the house edge) should allow, and I'm not the only one who believes this.

Rob,

My wife and I play a lot of blackjack at home. We have a full setup for blackjack with a casino-style table, professional shoe and casino chips. We simulate casino play as closely as possible.

We just finished going through a 3-day losing streak that was beyond belief. The dealer had extraordinary luck, and at one point we went through three shoes without a single dealer bust. If he showed a 6 up card, his hole card would be a 5 and then he'd pull a face card to beat our pathetic 18-19s or 20s. The one that really killed us was the frequency that the dealer would get a 3-8 combo and a face card, 9 or 8 to beat us. It was unreal the regularity that it happened.

I told my wife that if I saw this happening in a casino, I'd swear that the dealer was cheating.

By the way, we tried everything. We changed decks and shoes (we have two six-deck shoes), we'd re-shuffle (to simulate leaving the table and going to a new one), and it didn't matter.

Point is: The house has an edge that is an AVERAGE, and the dealer can certainly get on a streak and just slay you. We've had similar streaks, and I've racked up as much as $30K in 5 or 6 sessions.

So I wouldn't get too upset. Streaks are a part of the game.

 

[Mr. T]

To be fair to FBN let me give you my take on the casino scene.

When you play BJ with perfect BS you are giving the house only a very small house advantage ie 0.5%. This is too small for their liking. I have seen casinos disallowing the use of BS charts on the pretext that it slow down the game. They dont like BS players but will put up with them so far.

They would love to have players playing at a higher house advantage like Roulette at 5% house advantage or slot machines at sometimes 10% HA. This is where the casino get to pay their staff, rent etc and get their profit.

They treat card counters like a plague and would not hesitate to throw them out of their casinos even when the card counter is losing.

For a recreational player like you, expect to lose. But if the entertainment value is important to you and the Comps from the casinos is great then this is a hobby for you. But let me remind you again. Forget about winning.

 

[Kasi]

Of course I realize that the house will always have an edge. I may be relatively new to the game, but I am not stupid. What I can't figure out is that this should only mean that the house will win MOST of the time, not ALL of the time, unless that edge is ridiculously high, which, of course it isn't SUPPOSED to be.

Well, you probably shouldn't lose all the time unless you keep playing long enough to make it likely.

Like apparently you have a 20 unit roll. I don't know the HA of the game you play, whether you play at full tables or not, whether you play perfect BS for that game, or even whether it's true you actually never ever bet more than $10/hand. If you are losing 100% of the time I can only imagine that it occurred over different lengths of time (ie hands played) playing at a table.

To play longer, bring more units. If you have 40 units, sure, sometimes you will be down by 20 units but, instaead of being broke, you have 20 more units with which to make a comeback.

Surely you can see that if you only brought $20 each time, it's pretty darn likely you will lose the entire 2 units an awful lot of the time in just an hour's play. 20 units can be lost in a certain number of hands probably alot more often than you might think.

 

[GeorgeD]

Rob, my comment was tongue in cheek. IF ONLY they would have games where a BS player has an edge we could all be winners. They're not there to give away money so that won't happen.

Maybe you misunderstand the risk of the game. Lets say a game has a house edge of .5% ... does that mean if you buy in for $200 and play for 4 hours you should only lose about $10? ($200 * .05)? Well, no .. that's what I thought in the beginning. If you buy in for $200, and flat bet $10, you will probably play about 60 hands per hour, so you will risk $600 per hour (@10 * 60) and on average lose $30 per hour or $120 in four hours IN THE VERY VERY LONG RUN.

That doesn't sound too bad, but in any given hour betting $10 per hand there's variance (some say luck) that gives a pretty good chance you will lose something like $320 and an equal chance you will win $280 .... take 4 hours of that "bad" luck and you could lose $1280. More likely you will bounce back and forth between +$280 and -$320 for every hour you play in the end you are most likely to wind up behind about $30 per hour of play. Bet higher and you will lose more. Still, on average that $200 is going to last about 6.6 hours before you go home busted.

If that doesn't help, maybe Arnold Snyder can explain:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/wontwin.html

 

[FBN]

Thank you guys very much. The links to trainers has helped in getting comfortable with BS (I'm still bad at it but I know it takes time and practice) In my original post I should've said "break even" rather than "win" because I do realize that you can't truelly win.