And another 80 units down the drain

[DonR]

I'm not really sure how much longer I can stand this (or my BR, that is). Every single time I see those high TC's (so rare in 8D games), I am getting killed. In my 6 months of playing, counting cards (and I know it is not very long), it has always been these rare opportunities to make some money, that have turned out to be real killers of my bankroll.

The rules are 8D, S17, DAS, and I wong out at -2. No wongging in, because it is pretty much impossible, due to crowded places. I am usually doing all right playing anything between TC of -2 and +2, or +3. However, anytime I see those higher counts and I push out 8,10 or 12 units, I am getting killed. I do not remember winning a single hand at these "favorable" counts. I almost feel cursed.

My sessions typically end winning 10 to 15 units, or maybe losing 20-30, most of the time playing hands with TC between -2 and +2, or 3. In those few rare sessions where I am exposed to these favorable high counts, I am losing all my previous winnings and way more than that. I cannot win a single one.

Just the other day, I was playing at a $10 table, and in the very first shoe, the TC was slowly rising (the best scenario, right?). The pen was decent (about 1 and a half decks) and in the last few hands of the shoe I was able to push out some heavy bets, up to 2x6 units, with the TC of +8. Needless to say, I lost everything. Then I was playing for another few hours, going up and down 5 or 6 units, religiously wongging out at -2. And then another shoe came, with high TC's. Same story, again I was able to spread to 2 hands, going up to 2x6, having some splits and double downs...and I lost pretty much all these hands again. I had one or two pushes, everything else was a loss. Six hours of play, for the total of -80 units.

This just keeps repeating, to the point where I am becoming scared of seeing these high counts. I don't think I have what it takes.

 

[bjcount]

I'm not really sure how much longer I can stand this (or my BR, that is). Every single time I see those high TC's (so rare in 8D games), I am getting killed. In my 6 months of playing, counting cards (and I know it is not very long), it has always been these rare opportunities to make some money, that have turned out to be real killers of my bankroll.

The rules are 8D, S17, DAS, and I wong out at -2. No wongging in, because it is pretty much impossible, due to crowded places. I am usually doing all right playing anything between TC of -2 and +2, or +3. However, anytime I see those higher counts and I push out 8,10 or 12 units, I am getting killed. I do not remember winning a single hand at these "favorable" counts. I almost feel cursed.

My sessions typically end winning 10 to 15 units, or maybe losing 20-30, most of the time playing hands with TC between -2 and +2, or 3. In those few rare sessions where I am exposed to these favorable high counts, I am losing all my previous winnings and way more than that. I cannot win a single one.

Just the other day, I was playing at a $10 table, and in the very first shoe, the TC was slowly rising (the best scenario, right?). The pen was decent (about 1 and a half decks) and in the last few hands of the shoe I was able to push out some heavy bets, up to 2x6 units, with the TC of +8. Needless to say, I lost everything. Then I was playing for another few hours, going up and down 5 or 6 units, religiously wongging out at -2. And then another shoe came, with high TC's. Same story, again I was able to spread to 2 hands, going up to 2x6, having some splits and double downs...and I lost pretty much all these hands again. I had one or two pushes, everything else was a loss. Six hours of play, for the total of -80 units.

This just keeps repeating, to the point where I am becoming scared of seeing these high counts. I don't think I have what it takes.

Maybe your count is wrong. Have you tried to count down 6-8 decks (not 1D at a time) to see how accurate you are? A few mistakes along the way in 8 deck shoes can easily throw your count off by 1-2 TC integers.

BJC

 

[FLASH1296]

You said "+8"
"Hi-Lo" or ... ?

You experience is not in any way uncommon.
If you are troubled by this do not count cards.

Your chances of your winning the hand that you are wagering on at -2
is not much different from the hand that you are wagering on at +2.

In both cases you are a substantial underdog to win the hand.

The only reason we can win at all is that higher counts provide
more blackjacks and more successful splits and double downs.

Long strings of losing sessions are par for the course.
Fortunately, winning ones are as well.

 

[matt21]

hey don, sorry to hear about your tough experiences. i went through a long losing streak last year (lost 400 units over 120 hours) and it's not a nice feeling.

that said, maybe you need to consider looking for other games, particularly with fewer than 8D.

Have you calculated your EV and your hourly rate? If the tables are very busy and you are playing 8D then i would expect your EV to be quite low even with wonging out.

in any case, good luck to you and dont give up yet!!

 

[Mimosine]

if this is really killing you right now, you should take a step back for a little while and do something enjoyable. let your head settle and then take another stab at it after some time passes.

i had a killer losing day recently, 19 max bets gone in about 5 hours. i wiped out my trip BR. it was the first time that i ever tapped out and it was not pleasant. but i have kept on playing knowing that this comes with the territory. my biggest one day win has only been around 13 max bets, so this was a very very big loss for me.

 

[Tarzan]

Swings, Roller Coasters and other amusement park stuff

Number one is insuring your count; whatever method it may be is accurate with proven results. Next is to have a bankroll that can withstand negative swings. Next after that is to be able to take a loss mentally/emotionally (this is one I have a hard time at because I hate to lose!) In the last month or so, I have had a ridiculously high positive swing like nothing I have ever seen before, averaging a whopping 8 units an hour or so for several weeks! Now I know darn well what my normal averages are for years and guess what! Sure as heck this last week I lost over 200 units in about 35 hours of play and not a thing went right... for the entire WEEK! It happens. This took a fat chunk out of what my earnings for the year have been. I am still quite profitable in the big picture but to take a $5000 beating for the week is no fun...Can you lose? YEP! Can you lose 25% of all the money you have earned in the last three months in one real bad week? YEP! It goes with the territory. The only answer to it is to be part of a team or something (which I know nothing about) so you don't feel the emotional impact of taking a few beatings along the way! Besides, according to Bojack, on his team you make big fat obscene out of the ballpark money way ahead of us "pathetic grinders".

It will inevitably swing back the other way, it always does and what my average earnings are will prevail, which is a little over a unit an hour. This is computed over months and YEARS of play, playing 30-60 hours a week. I can swing back and forth 80 units +- in one typical DAY.

If your count and/or strategy is flawed you are doomed. If your bankroll is insufficient you are doomed. If you can't spring back from a stretch of horridly negative swing... you guessed it! You are doomed. If you get horribly unlucky for long enough, regardless of all else and even if you did everything right, you can end up in another small isolated percentage that... is doomed.

I am in a state of shock at just how bad things went for me this last week but I have enough money behind me that I don't think I will go under. Patience... the long run... the big picture, all that.

 

[lucifer]

I played a few days ago and reached my highest count, it think, in my playing history. it was about +24 on a dd.i lost or pushed every hand. really was murdered. bj is brutal. there is a reason why so few can do this. without flux, we could all play black chips with a 3000 roll and make our exact ev every hour.think about this for a moment. my advantage on those +20's counts was about 5 to 6%.as great as that is, its about the advantage the house has on me betting black or red. I can win for quite some time betting black or red before that edge eats at me. knowing this, i called it a night, and will play again tomorrow. one thing you should do, unless your on vacation, is call it a night when you lose your day bankroll, which for me is 50 units.thats alot for my type game. i dont play 6 decks with these huge spreads.i find it recharges your battery, and doesnt hurt your next session, because you had a full day to forget about it.btw, this post is the 6th reply and 66th view.Is someone trying to tell me something.

 

[KOLAN]

casino cheting.
dont belive no body
it is mony

 

[takinfromindians97]

try another game

In blackjack the dealer is gonna beet you way more hands then you will beet him, its quite common to lose alot in a high count its your blackjacks and doubles and splits where you make money. If this cannot discourages you and you cannot take the swings and loss of money take up something else. I like alot of people added another casino game to my arsonal so that when blackjack isnt doing so well i can hammer away at the craps table. I usually find you wont lose at two different games in which you are an AP, so worse case you break even for the night. Im not saying this is an easy task to just start being an AP at any casino game. It takes alot of time and practice, but maybe itll be what you need to get your mind off losing. I can tell you when you win at craps its much more fun and everyone at the table loves you for it. Not like how we a ridiculed for the plays we make from ploppies at the BJ tables, my AP craps has got me nothing but love from other players and actually ive been handed quite a bit of money for my rolls when other people hit big, guy handed me 200$ the other night cause i went on a run and made him alot of money.

 

[Pelerus]

casino cheting.
dont belive no body
it is mony

it is logik :grin:

 

[zengrifter]

Maybe your count is wrong. Have you tried to count down 6-8 decks (not 1D at a time) to see how accurate you are? A few mistakes along the way in 8 deck shoes can easily throw your count off by 1-2 TC integers.

BJC

A few random mistakes per hour have virtually no effect. zg

 

[zengrifter]

if this is really killing you right now, you should take a step back for a little while and do something enjoyable. let your head settle and then take another stab at it after some time passes.

i had a killer losing day recently, 19 max bets gone in about 5 hours. i wiped out my trip BR. it was the first time that i ever tapped out and it was not pleasant. but i have kept on playing knowing that this comes with the territory. my biggest one day win has only been around 13 max bets, so this was a very very big loss for me.

Especially not if the trip isn't over, best to take the whole, not just a trip fraction. zg

 

[zengrifter]

I played a few days ago and reached my highest count, it think, in my playing history. it was about +24 on a dd.i lost or pushed every hand. really was murdered. bj is brutal. there is a reason why so few can do this. without flux, we could all play black chips with a 3000 roll and make our exact ev every hour.think about this for a moment. my advantage on those +20's counts was about 5 to 6%.as great as that is, its about the advantage the house has on me betting black or red. I can win for quite some time betting black or red before that edge eats at me. knowing this, i called it a night, and will play again tomorrow. one thing you should do, unless your on vacation, is call it a night when you lose your day bankroll, which for me is 50 units.thats alot for my type game. i dont play 6 decks with these huge spreads.i find it recharges your battery, and doesnt hurt your next session, because you had a full day to forget about it.btw, this post is the 6th reply and 66th view.Is someone trying to tell me something.

50 units should be one SESSION, not one day. zg

 

[Bojack1]

Besides, according to Bojack, on his team you make big fat obscene out of the ballpark money way ahead of us "pathetic grinders".

Is this some kind of a potshot, falsely quoting something I've never said. I've never called anyone pathetic that grinds out the game. I have said thats not for me, but never have I degraded anyone who puts in the time and effort to play a winning game. And where have I ever said the kind of money I make. I never boast about money won, or lost for that matter. I try to be respectful to everyone who has the courtesy to do the same. I would suggest the next time you throw quotation marks around something I say, make sure you dont take liberties with the truth.

 

[kewljason]

I've never called anyone pathetic that grinds out the game. I have said thats not for me, but never have I degraded anyone who puts in the time and effort to play a winning game. I try to be respectful to everyone who has the courtesy to do the same. I would suggest the next time you throw quotation marks around something I say, make sure you dont take liberties with the truth.

I will say there was a recent post that I felt a bit degrated by you. on march 14, 2009, 7:07am, you responded to me "to wallow in a low income grind when it does not need to be that way is in my opinion a form of sado masochism". You went on to say that if ten years from now I'm still a grinder, "that I'm a fool".

Maybe I'm overly sensative, but it felt pretty degrating to me.

 

[creeping panther]

Kewl

I will say there was a recent post that I felt a bit degrated by you. on march 14, 2009, 7:07am, you responded to me "to wallow in a low income grind when it does not need to be that way is in my opinion a form of sado masochism". You went on to say that if ten years from now I'm still a grinder, "that I'm a fool".

Maybe I'm overly sensative, but it felt pretty degrating to me.

kEWL, we all at one time or another have someone we look up to, aspire to be like, and then they say things that, while they may not mean to, can really cut you deeply. That has happened in this case?

You must remember that Bojack and those similar to him did not get where they are, so i am told...rumored to be, by having personalities like Mr. Rogers.

KEWL, did you read the thread where RJT expressed his opinions on posters, part time rec players? I think that gives great insight into the mind and personalities of full timers, nothing wrong with it, just standard fare.

KEWL, you should take care not to put anyone on a pedestal, pave your own path, and trust in the math, your SKILLZ, and a fine game.

CP

 

[Bojack1]

I will say there was a recent post that I felt a bit degrated by you. on march 14, 2009, 7:07am, you responded to me "to wallow in a low income grind when it does not need to be that way is in my opinion a form of sado masochism". You went on to say that if ten years from now I'm still a grinder, "that I'm a fool".

Maybe I'm overly sensative, but it felt pretty degrating to me.

Here is my exact quote from that post.

"I have nothing against grinders, grinding it out full time means you have achieved a level of success that most AP's will never see. Not to mention most who try advantage play will fail, and those who don't, usually can't depend on it for anything but some recreational release and maybe a little money on the side. My point is just what you are making here, if you have the means and want to do better, why not? You aspire to make 6 figures, great, go for it. To wallow in a low income grind when it does not need to be that way, is in my opinion a form of sado masochism. There are exceptions to this of course. If you are already retired from some other form of working and have a pension or some other type of income supplementing your gaming income, there may be no need to make more than what is being referred to as the grind amount."

Do not take what I say out of context. I applaud your accomplishment. I stand by my statement as well, if you have the urge and want to do better, as well as the means, and don't do it, you are torturing yourself. I'm not saying you personally, as I thought that was obvious by my commending you on your efforts already. I do not mean to offend anyone that does nothing to be offended by.

 

[creeping panther]

Don R.

I'm not really sure how much longer I can stand this (or my BR, that is). Every single time I see those high TC's (so rare in 8D games), I am getting killed. In my 6 months of playing, counting cards (and I know it is not very long), it has always been these rare opportunities to make some money, that have turned out to be real killers of my bankroll.

The rules are 8D, S17, DAS, and I wong out at -2. No wongging in, because it is pretty much impossible, due to crowded places. I am usually doing all right playing anything between TC of -2 and +2, or +3. However, anytime I see those higher counts and I push out 8,10 or 12 units, I am getting killed. I do not remember winning a single hand at these "favorable" counts. I almost feel cursed.

My sessions typically end winning 10 to 15 units, or maybe losing 20-30, most of the time playing hands with TC between -2 and +2, or 3. In those few rare sessions where I am exposed to these favorable high counts, I am losing all my previous winnings and way more than that. I cannot win a single one.

Just the other day, I was playing at a $10 table, and in the very first shoe, the TC was slowly rising (the best scenario, right?). The pen was decent (about 1 and a half decks) and in the last few hands of the shoe I was able to push out some heavy bets, up to 2x6 units, with the TC of +8. Needless to say, I lost everything. Then I was playing for another few hours, going up and down 5 or 6 units, religiously wongging out at -2. And then another shoe came, with high TC's. Same story, again I was able to spread to 2 hands, going up to 2x6, having some splits and double downs...and I lost pretty much all these hands again. I had one or two pushes, everything else was a loss. Six hours of play, for the total of -80 units.

This just keeps repeating, to the point where I am becoming scared of seeing these high counts. I don't think I have what it takes.

Don, Sorry for your experience.

I have harped on this many times and I will do so again.

As a general rule do not play anymore than 6d shoes, just do not do it. You must play a fine game or do not play at all. The game you play I hold my nose as i walk by.

If you like the casino experience and cannot get a fine BJ game take up VP and find a game such a JOB 9/6 or better and play that. In the world of AP BJ you must find a fine game, you need that discipline.

Stop giving your money away now on that SHI* game. In reality, you will not beat it!

CP

 

[SystemsTrader]

I'm not really sure how much longer I can stand this (or my BR, that is). Every single time I see those high TC's (so rare in 8D games), I am getting killed. In my 6 months of playing, counting cards (and I know it is not very long), it has always been these rare opportunities to make some money, that have turned out to be real killers of my bankroll.

The rules are 8D, S17, DAS, and I wong out at -2. No wongging in, because it is pretty much impossible, due to crowded places. I am usually doing all right playing anything between TC of -2 and +2, or +3. However, anytime I see those higher counts and I push out 8,10 or 12 units, I am getting killed. I do not remember winning a single hand at these "favorable" counts. I almost feel cursed.

My sessions typically end winning 10 to 15 units, or maybe losing 20-30, most of the time playing hands with TC between -2 and +2, or 3. In those few rare sessions where I am exposed to these favorable high counts, I am losing all my previous winnings and way more than that. I cannot win a single one.

Just the other day, I was playing at a $10 table, and in the very first shoe, the TC was slowly rising (the best scenario, right?). The pen was decent (about 1 and a half decks) and in the last few hands of the shoe I was able to push out some heavy bets, up to 2x6 units, with the TC of +8. Needless to say, I lost everything. Then I was playing for another few hours, going up and down 5 or 6 units, religiously wongging out at -2. And then another shoe came, with high TC's. Same story, again I was able to spread to 2 hands, going up to 2x6, having some splits and double downs...and I lost pretty much all these hands again. I had one or two pushes, everything else was a loss. Six hours of play, for the total of -80 units.

This just keeps repeating, to the point where I am becoming scared of seeing these high counts. I don't think I have what it takes.

I don't know how you calculate your unit but if its based on your minimum bet and if that minimum is $10 then you really aren't down very much money. I know you don't want to hear that right now but stick with it as long as you have the bankroll to handle it. If you are getting 1.5 pen, that's 81%, that's a good game even for 8 decks and you should be seeing a fair amount of high bets. Trust me as long as you are adequately bankrolled it will turn around for you and when that good shoe finally shows up you will feel a hell of a lot better. You will finally be able to say its about time. True AP's aren't afraid of those high counts and you must keep putting those big bets out. As for your spread a 1-12 spread isn't going to cut it against 8 decks, you really should be getting it up to 1-20 or at the very least 1-15.

 

[Mimosine]

True AP's aren't afraid of those high counts and you must keep putting those big bets out.

when you do get back on the horse you absolutely can not be afraid to push those max bets out.... this is critical.