FUHGEDABOUDIT
Active Member
Does anyone on this site believe they have had success using Positive Progressive Betting?
Any successful Progression Players?
- Thread starter FUHGEDABOUDIT
- Start date
ive had success with it in a few sessions.
One time i really remember is when my brother decided to tell me all about this new "double up system" he had heard of. I had enough to do a progression of $5 $10 $20 $40 and I wanted to show him why i didn't work. I ended up winning over $400 trying to show him why it didn't work
One time i really remember is when my brother decided to tell me all about this new "double up system" he had heard of. I had enough to do a progression of $5 $10 $20 $40 and I wanted to show him why i didn't work. I ended up winning over $400 trying to show him why it didn't work
davidmcclung
New Member
Flat bets are better with this strategy
Progressions only work on the real good tables which are rare. Overall this will work better and have consistently won with this simple strategy and this is my betting amounts and session bankroll: Bet $15 flat bets and stay at a table until you lose four in a row, strategy is based on NOT leaning into the punch and gets you off the table timely whether winning or losing. Simply switch tables after losing four in a row at your current table. When you are plus $100 for the session after your four losses, consider quitting that session. Double downs or splits losses just count as one hand in the four loss series. On a decent table, you will be able to stay with an overall win for an half hour or more. $450 session bankroll which is thirty times your bet, plenty but not too much. For you non-counters looking for a playing strategy, this is as good as any, believe me as I have tried about all the progressions and regressions.
Progressions only work on the real good tables which are rare. Overall this will work better and have consistently won with this simple strategy and this is my betting amounts and session bankroll: Bet $15 flat bets and stay at a table until you lose four in a row, strategy is based on NOT leaning into the punch and gets you off the table timely whether winning or losing. Simply switch tables after losing four in a row at your current table. When you are plus $100 for the session after your four losses, consider quitting that session. Double downs or splits losses just count as one hand in the four loss series. On a decent table, you will be able to stay with an overall win for an half hour or more. $450 session bankroll which is thirty times your bet, plenty but not too much. For you non-counters looking for a playing strategy, this is as good as any, believe me as I have tried about all the progressions and regressions.
davidmcclung
New Member
This has worked well the latest sessions:
In addition to the 4 losses and off the table per above, I have now incorported the following enhancement feature: On double decks: after one win then double your bet and keep your bet doubled until the next shuffle. On six decks, wait for any 3 wins, does not have to be consecutive, then double your bet and keep doubled until the end of the shoe. Session bankroll is 30 times your doubled bet Example: So if playing a minimum $15 double deck game, $900 session bankroll as your max bet is $30(30x$30=$900) and your low is $15. On the start of the double deck after the shuffle, bet $15 only, wait for any one win to occur, then bet $30 for the remainder of the two decks. On 6 decks the rules change to any 3 wins(one win for every 2 decks), so bet $15 until any 3 wins during the shoe, then bet $30 until the end of the shoe. That's it, simple and is has worked very well to date.
In addition to the 4 losses and off the table per above, I have now incorported the following enhancement feature: On double decks: after one win then double your bet and keep your bet doubled until the next shuffle. On six decks, wait for any 3 wins, does not have to be consecutive, then double your bet and keep doubled until the end of the shoe. Session bankroll is 30 times your doubled bet Example: So if playing a minimum $15 double deck game, $900 session bankroll as your max bet is $30(30x$30=$900) and your low is $15. On the start of the double deck after the shuffle, bet $15 only, wait for any one win to occur, then bet $30 for the remainder of the two decks. On 6 decks the rules change to any 3 wins(one win for every 2 decks), so bet $15 until any 3 wins during the shoe, then bet $30 until the end of the shoe. That's it, simple and is has worked very well to date.
aslan
Well-Known Member
Sooner or Later, Alligator...
To me the bad part about progressions, positive or negative, is that you can win for a while, but you absolutely know that you will lose if you keep using it. What good is a system that you have to quit using because you know it will get you in the end? And if you think you can just keep jumping in on the winning streaks, and out on losing ones, forgetaboutit! The cards don't have any memory of when you jumped in and out; it's all just one, long continuous betting session. Ca'pece?
To me the bad part about progressions, positive or negative, is that you can win for a while, but you absolutely know that you will lose if you keep using it. What good is a system that you have to quit using because you know it will get you in the end? And if you think you can just keep jumping in on the winning streaks, and out on losing ones, forgetaboutit! The cards don't have any memory of when you jumped in and out; it's all just one, long continuous betting session. Ca'pece?
If the system starts to fail, you just tweak it a little, also known as "incorporating enhancements". Then you're good to go for a while longer.
davidmcclung
New Member
More Tweaking
My latest session, I only increased the bet size by fifty percent, not doubling, so my session bankroll was able to be lessened as I was playing at higher minimums. We non-counters all need a good playing strategy, counting did not work for me overall so I gave up on it as it was not worth the aggravation. So here is how I play now and this gives me a real good chance of winning: Basic is quit the table after four or five consecutive losses, do not lean into the punch. I like double deck mainly, so after any win after the shuffle, I increase my bet fifty percent and keep it up until the end of the shoe. Need thirty times your high bet for session bankroll. For six decks, wait for any 3 wins, then increase your bet by fifty percent and keep it up until the end of the shoe. Use one win for every two decks basis depending if you are playing 2 to 8 decks for increasing your bet, so if 8 decks wait for any 4 wins before increasing your bet, etc. Do not go up and down, just increase your bet after the required wins and keep it up for the remainder of the shoe. Try it if you are looking for a new strategy as I was, you will like it I bet, AND give us your results. My results since adding the bet increasing feature to the 4 losses and out strategy is now now 4 sessions won with 0 losses, for net win of $800, and I consider a 2-3 night trip with many hrs of playing as one session.
My latest session, I only increased the bet size by fifty percent, not doubling, so my session bankroll was able to be lessened as I was playing at higher minimums. We non-counters all need a good playing strategy, counting did not work for me overall so I gave up on it as it was not worth the aggravation. So here is how I play now and this gives me a real good chance of winning: Basic is quit the table after four or five consecutive losses, do not lean into the punch. I like double deck mainly, so after any win after the shuffle, I increase my bet fifty percent and keep it up until the end of the shoe. Need thirty times your high bet for session bankroll. For six decks, wait for any 3 wins, then increase your bet by fifty percent and keep it up until the end of the shoe. Use one win for every two decks basis depending if you are playing 2 to 8 decks for increasing your bet, so if 8 decks wait for any 4 wins before increasing your bet, etc. Do not go up and down, just increase your bet after the required wins and keep it up for the remainder of the shoe. Try it if you are looking for a new strategy as I was, you will like it I bet, AND give us your results. My results since adding the bet increasing feature to the 4 losses and out strategy is now now 4 sessions won with 0 losses, for net win of $800, and I consider a 2-3 night trip with many hrs of playing as one session.
aslan
Well-Known Member
Last year in LV I was successful using, of all things, a modified martingale playing BJ. I bet $10, $20, $30 following losing bets, but if I won one of the bets, I returned to $10. So, if I won the third bet I was at least even. If I lost 3 in a row, I also returned to $10. I was playing sorta BS, because I didn't know any better. I won three successive sessions. When I returned home to VA I ran the progression on a homemade simulator and discovered that I was the luckiest man on earth to have gotten away with this stupid betting strategy.
I've done a lot of studying since then and I am absolutely convinced that no betting progression can EVER win in the long run; heck, even card counters have a difficult time winning, and they have the best of it!
There is no easy road to riches, at least not one that you can consciously set out to find. If you suddenly find yourself rolling in dough some day without lifting a finger to earn it, then you have found the easy road, but not by looking for it--you just fell into it. Assignment exercise: Compute the odds of just falling into wealth. Hint: If you win the Megamillions lottery, you qualify for just falling into wealth.
So just how lucky did ur homemade sim say u were for winning 3 sessions in a row?
I'd guess u'd be pretty unlucky if u had not won 3 sessions in a row.
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
I actually been practicing with a pretty cool progression in a 2 deck. After about thirty hours i am virtually even.
Im actually counting with a pe. of .68 to enhance my play of hands with about 67% pen.
System:
Heres how it works, Once you win a flat bet go to 3units, win again, go to 5, win again go to 7. Win or lose 7. Start over.
If you lose the 3u bet or the 5u bet, resort to the neg. progression.
Play the neg. progression until you win a hand OR lose the -6 unit then start over!
Example: 1u,W, 3u,W, 5u,L 2u,L 4u,W Start trial over.
Small exceptions: If you win double on 3u, but lose 5u, consider it a push and replay 5u,
note: Always resort to neg prog especially if you lose double on 5u.
Resort to neg prog, if you lose double on 7u bet, even if you win the double 5u, bet.
Players at table: The # of players at the table indicate which bets we let carry over at the shuffle.
Example: Theres four people at the table and i won the last hand before the shuffle. My first bet of the top will be three.
Or say theres five people, and i lost my 2u[neg,prog] bet and the dealer shuffles. Start trial over. You would only go to 4u, if their were 6 or 7 players.
Or say their was 2 people and you win the 3u bet, and the dealer shuffles. You would only go to[carry over] the 5u bet, if their were 3 or more players.
Conclusion: Im pretty sure that you need a pe. of .70 or better to make this work. This is what lead me to the AX count. When broken down by 4 its +7 vs -6 : 0 +4+5+6+8+5 000 -6 Which has a pe. .70 and a potential PC. of 1 when using multi-params. Of course, theres easier ways to go about getting a pe. at or over .70
My main reason for this is for cover betting:joker:
Im actually counting with a pe. of .68 to enhance my play of hands with about 67% pen.
System:
Code:
1 Players at table: 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
-2 -6 -4,-2, 3, 5, 7, 1
3
-4
5
-6
7Heres how it works, Once you win a flat bet go to 3units, win again, go to 5, win again go to 7. Win or lose 7. Start over.
If you lose the 3u bet or the 5u bet, resort to the neg. progression.
Play the neg. progression until you win a hand OR lose the -6 unit then start over!
Example: 1u,W, 3u,W, 5u,L 2u,L 4u,W Start trial over.
Small exceptions: If you win double on 3u, but lose 5u, consider it a push and replay 5u,
note: Always resort to neg prog especially if you lose double on 5u.
Resort to neg prog, if you lose double on 7u bet, even if you win the double 5u, bet.
Players at table: The # of players at the table indicate which bets we let carry over at the shuffle.
Example: Theres four people at the table and i won the last hand before the shuffle. My first bet of the top will be three.
Or say theres five people, and i lost my 2u[neg,prog] bet and the dealer shuffles. Start trial over. You would only go to 4u, if their were 6 or 7 players.
Or say their was 2 people and you win the 3u bet, and the dealer shuffles. You would only go to[carry over] the 5u bet, if their were 3 or more players.
Conclusion: Im pretty sure that you need a pe. of .70 or better to make this work. This is what lead me to the AX count. When broken down by 4 its +7 vs -6 : 0 +4+5+6+8+5 000 -6 Which has a pe. .70 and a potential PC. of 1 when using multi-params. Of course, theres easier ways to go about getting a pe. at or over .70
My main reason for this is for cover betting:joker:
ihate17
Well-Known Member
None of the people who really know the game.
To use your name as an answer to your question, Fuhgedaboudit!
Blackjack is just a math game where if you can play you also have to throw some personality in for cover. In some thread on this site I have mentioned that in 30 years or so of counting, I have had 4 streaks of straight loses of 20 or more. The worst was around 26 and with a few doubles and splits included, it was probably 30 bets (I did have two pushes). None of the streaks were on one table.
Three of the four times I had these streaks, I was still up at the end of the day. Now if I had played a positive progression, I would probably be in the hole about the budget of a small to mid sized country.
The things about a positive progression is that you might have dozens of small winning sessions but just one bad streak will wipe all of that and more out. Tweaking it will cut your loses and perhaps prevent devistation, but over time, you must lose.
ihate17
To use your name as an answer to your question, Fuhgedaboudit!
Blackjack is just a math game where if you can play you also have to throw some personality in for cover. In some thread on this site I have mentioned that in 30 years or so of counting, I have had 4 streaks of straight loses of 20 or more. The worst was around 26 and with a few doubles and splits included, it was probably 30 bets (I did have two pushes). None of the streaks were on one table.
Three of the four times I had these streaks, I was still up at the end of the day. Now if I had played a positive progression, I would probably be in the hole about the budget of a small to mid sized country.
The things about a positive progression is that you might have dozens of small winning sessions but just one bad streak will wipe all of that and more out. Tweaking it will cut your loses and perhaps prevent devistation, but over time, you must lose.
ihate17
I have played heads up in a 2 deck game and lost every hand in the shuffle. That was close to 20 hands.
Progressions have their useful ness. They increase the variance. If you flat bet blackjack it can go on for hundreds or thousands of hands without significant winning or lossing. If you use a progression you tend to get a return quicker (though more often bad than good).
Progressions have their useful ness. They increase the variance. If you flat bet blackjack it can go on for hundreds or thousands of hands without significant winning or lossing. If you use a progression you tend to get a return quicker (though more often bad than good).
davidmcclung
New Member
Once you increase just stay up
I have found to no one's surprise here, that the usual progressions and regressions do not work. The only way I have had success with is once you increase your bet, keep at the same increased bet for the remainder of the shoe. The following has worked well for me on double deck games especially: Once you get a winning hand, then increase your bet by at least fifty percent(or double it if your bankroll allows) and keep it up at the same amount until the end of the shoe. No furthur increasing or decreasing. Need 30 times your max bet session bankroll. Example: start with $20 bet and keep at $20 until get a win, after a win bet $30 and keep at $30 level bets until the end of the shoe. Need a $900 session bankroll for these bets. If you have a $1200 session bankroll, then the max bet goes up to $40(double the low bet), this is 30 times your high bet. This works surprisingly well for some unknown reason and I do not know why, makes no sense whatsoever.
I have found to no one's surprise here, that the usual progressions and regressions do not work. The only way I have had success with is once you increase your bet, keep at the same increased bet for the remainder of the shoe. The following has worked well for me on double deck games especially: Once you get a winning hand, then increase your bet by at least fifty percent(or double it if your bankroll allows) and keep it up at the same amount until the end of the shoe. No furthur increasing or decreasing. Need 30 times your max bet session bankroll. Example: start with $20 bet and keep at $20 until get a win, after a win bet $30 and keep at $30 level bets until the end of the shoe. Need a $900 session bankroll for these bets. If you have a $1200 session bankroll, then the max bet goes up to $40(double the low bet), this is 30 times your high bet. This works surprisingly well for some unknown reason and I do not know why, makes no sense whatsoever.
Sonny
Well-Known Member
I have had alot of success with Dahls progressions (1,1,1.5,1.5,2,2,3,3,5,5,7,7,10,10), basically you bet the minimum when you lose a hand and start you progression as soon as you win a hand, last week I got a hot streek and went from $75 to $1300 in an hour. Im not saying its always going to work but I will not allow myself to lose more then 5 hands in a row at a table, if I do I get up take a break and relax then find another table. I play BS from this site for my casino which is (6 Decks, S17, D9, No Surr, No Peek, No Hole Card), Im not able to implement card counting because they only have CSM games here, so this is my only hope when it comes to advantage play.
aslan
Well-Known Member
What the simulation revealed was that if you try to outsmart the martingale by, for example, only going 4 times and then bailing out, what will happen is that in the long run you will have more fours and out than you can cover by your wins. You might have a chance in a game with no house edge, but the simulation clearly showed that the house edge is impossible to defeat in the long run by mere betting strategies. In fact, the 4 and out tends to magnify your losses over simply flat betting.
aslan
Well-Known Member
Just think what would happen if you were in an extremely negative count that got "worser and worser" to coin a phrase. Your expectation of winning is somewhere down below the third basement. Let's say you won a hand early on in the session. Just imagine what will happen to your BR if you decide to raise your bet after this winning hand and keep it there to the end of the shoe! If you want my advice, don't do it!
Sonny
Well-Known Member
I shudder to see progression systems referred to as Advantage Plays. There are so many legitimate forms of Advantage Play that can be used against a CSM that nobody should ever have to resort to using a progression system. Techniques like scavenger plays (hand interactions), side bets, backlining, comp hustling, sequencing, and couponomy can all give you an advantage that progressions never will. If those don't work then you might be able to make money through team play and/or local tournaments. The possibilities are out there.
-Sonny-
Sonny,
Thanks for the reply, Im fairly new to the world of blackjack, Im an avid craps man and still think its one of the best games in terms odds when played correctly. Can you tell me more about scavenger plays (hand interactions), side bets, backlining, sequencing. Also do you have any book recommendations for the non counter, I have Dahls books but Im also looking at one by Avery Cardoza.
DC
Thanks for the reply, Im fairly new to the world of blackjack, Im an avid craps man and still think its one of the best games in terms odds when played correctly. Can you tell me more about scavenger plays (hand interactions), side bets, backlining, sequencing. Also do you have any book recommendations for the non counter, I have Dahls books but Im also looking at one by Avery Cardoza.
DC