Anyone tried this betting strategy?

E-town-guy

Well-Known Member
#41
If you want a copy of the BJ flash trainer simply send 3 easy payments of $29.95 to my address which I'll send in a private message.

If you don't want to do that you can go to: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bst/ and then click on Free Blackjack Game: Blackjack Strategy Trainer

Good luck and let me know if you'd rather do option one ;)
 
#42
I am new to this forum as well, and have found it very interesting so far. I was in Las Vegas a year ago and found a progression that worked well for me, but could also cost you a lot of money. It's pretty simple. The unit bets are 1, 3, 2, 4 and then back to one again. If you lose, you go back to one. The guy I found this out from is a dealer, and he said that you have a much better chance of winning 2 hands in a row instead of 3 or 4. By increasing your second bet to 3, if you win, then lose the next hand, you are still ahead 2. BUT, and it's a very big BUT, if you can't win two in a row, your money will go down pretty fast, so you have to manage your bankroll extra carefully. I was very fortunate when I used this system. I started with $300 and played for about 6 hours at one table. I kept increasing my money and started to increase me betting amounts. I started with $5, then went to $10, then $25, then $100 and near the end I was betting $500 to $1,000 per hand. I ended up winning $7,000, which was pretty amazing. The next night I was up $600, went to a $25 table and lost $1,250. That was it for my trip. I quit and came home with a little over $6,000. So I saw both the good sides and the bad sides of this progression.

Has anyone else ever tried this one? I used the simulator and played about 150 hands, and won just at 42% and was $5 ahead based on $5 betting increments. The simulator must have gotten 10 blackjacks and kept drawing out on me. I had 95% correct plays. :)
 

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#43
It has already been correctly stated that Progressions of any kind will not change the advantage the house enjoys. If you play the progressions, you will eventually level out at loosing that house percentate of the total amount you have bet. "Variance" may make you a short term "winner" or "looser".

But your 1, 3, 2 progression is based on the expected percentage of winning just the next hand. You have about a 48% chance of winning any given hand which might lead you to believe that you are going to win a hand, then loose one then win the next. Sometimes, that works and when it does, you will come out ahead. When you play the simulator on this site, pay attention to the percentage of hands won. It might end up at close to 50% after playing a couple of hundred hands, but, keep track as you play of the ones you've won in streaks and the ones you've lost in streaks.....or better yet, watch your total BR and you will get an idea of how this might play out at a table.
 

BAMA21

Well-Known Member
#44
I haven't tried anything like that. I generally don't like any series that calls for increasing your bets after an initial win. My experience at the tables is that you will chop back and forth more often than you'll win two in a row. The better move, in my opinion, for a choppy game, is to drop your second bet. Most times, I'll do something like 2-1-1.5-2-3-4-5. That way, if you win every other hand, you grow your stack.
 

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#45
I tend to agree Bama. When I use a progression, it is usually 2,1,2,3,3,4,5....

But to be honest, I seldom use it. I either Flat bet or change my bet as the result of counting or "watching" cards if they are dealt face up.
 
#46
George Pappadopoulos' strategy is weak

pappadpoulos's stratagy is pathetic. I bought and read his book, it was the weakest dumbest blackjack book I have ever read, and I have read well over 20 of them. I did a 6 deck simulation of his weak progression for several hours using real cards dealt and shuffled in the same method as my favorite local casino, the simulation had 5 spots all playing his strategy and 2 flat bettors as controls, I was actually surprised how consistently the flat bet spots outperformed paddopoulous's ridiculous progression, incidentally every one of these spots was a loser, and so were the two flat betting spots, they just didn't lose as badly; and I would never recomend flat betting, unless the count was almost bad enough to consider leaving the table, or really high. If you really want to understand blackjack, try "the worlds greatest blackjack book" By Humphreys. it has a good easy counting method, and a more updated and accurate basic strategy.
I use a combination of revised martingale betting, when the count is mildly + to neutral. this not only helps me recover losses, and maximize gains, but to the house I appear to be a "negative expectation" gambler, so they love me instead of banning me. Also they tend to remember me for the big loss, and hence don't track the small gains realizing that they far outweigh the big loss, when I occasionally lose that 7th hand in a row. Also it masks when I increase my wagers. This is a good revised martingale betting progression, but make sure the count is at least neutral, or you could be in for a big loss.

1,2,4,4,5,10,20
ie a five dollar table would be $5,$10,$20,$20,$25,$50,$100,
green chip would be $25,$50,$100,$100,$125,$250,$500
of course whenever you win within that progression drop back to the $5 dollar minimum. You only raise your bet when you lose, to cover previous losses, If the count goes high, true count of +2.5 or better, in a 6 deck shoe, start letting your bets ride, to 3 - 5 units and then stay there, as long as the cards break in your favor, flat betting, this is where you will really make your money, the rest is just show.
your chances of losing 7 hands in a row, is approx. 1 in 300 assuming you win 48% of the time, but in my expierience it happens slightly more often, on average more like 1 in 200 hands.
one good book on negative betting progressions are---blackjack4living.com
the $17.95 download is well worth it.
another book that I like is called "betting on Blackjack" by fritz dunki jacobs.
these books offer food for thought but should be taken with a grain of salt.
remember without a combination of good counting techniques and applied basic stratagy, any progression is destined to take money out of your hands and put it into the casinos.

thanks
josh3623
PS- the non counter can use the following negative progression(2,4,7,14,17,20[$10,$20,$35,$70,$85,$100]) successfully utilizing a simple form of table analysis, watch the table and look for two busts in six hands, 3-4 busts in ten hands, also if you don't see a bust in four hands move to the next table; before sitting down make sure the dealer isn't flipping lots of 20s and 21s.
then come onto the table for ten or fifteen minutes and leave once you have earned 5 to 15 units, using this stratagy you can win consistently, applying basic stratagy. on occasion you will have losing streaks, that aren't the big bust, minimize these losses, by getting off the table after you make your recovery. if you are down a little its ok, just recover most of it and get off the table. You will spend more time watching tables using this technique though, (because it is hard to find a table that busts so consistently), then you will actually playing. but thats ok, if you jump in four times, in a 3 or 4 hour night, for 15 or 20 minutes each time, you can pull 20 to 40 units, not bad for a 40 unit buy in. and if you do it right you will win more than you lose. you will bust out one in 5-7 trips on average, that bust will cost you around 20-60 units, depending on how soon in your nightly gambling venture you had the bust. for example if you have been playing and won 20 units and then busted your loss would be around 40 units. I logged my wins and losses using this technique for almost a year, and greatly increased my bank.
*****The key is to stop playing for the day when you do have the big bust, it is not your day. there will always be tomorrow.

So for example, if you play 5 days and average 30 units on days 1,2,and 3 and then you bust out for 47 units on day 4 and make, 40 units on day five your take will be 130 units minus 47 units for a total gain of 83 units, this is consistently about what I won, 83 units at a green chip table would be over $2000.
I won consistently like this for years before I ever learned to count. and this technique worked great in europe where all the casinos use autoshuffle machines. I used this method in casinos from england and brussels to denmark and germany, spain, and many others, the only casino I lost in was amsterdam, that casino sucks. I won many euros pounds and kronins, even was asked to leave napolean's in london(the best casino in europe) and I wasn't even counting, and I had only won around 800 pounds. Also for you europeans since your casinos allow side bets(more than one bet, per betting position) I have perfected a very profitable technique that capitalizes on this aspect of european blackjack, contact me for more info. Thanks,,TTFN(Ta Ta For Now)
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#47
Guido said:
I used the simulator and played about 150 hands...
Try running about 67,000 more of those simulations and see what the overall results are. The results after 150 hands are meaningless. In the long run you'll find that all progression systems are equally worthless. They can be fun (until you hit that big loss), but they will not give you an advantage. In fact, many of them will cause you to lose more money because you are increasing your bets so often.

Guido said:
The guy I found this out from is a dealer, and he said that you have a much better chance of winning 2 hands in a row instead of 3 or 4.
The worst advice I have ever gotten has been from dealers. It looks like the same is true for you too. :D It is true that you are more likely to win 2 in a row than 3, but you are also more likely to win 1 in a row than 2. Following that further, we can say that you are even more likely to win none in a row than to win 1. That is how the house gets your money. You are the underdog on every hand and no progression system will change that.

Guido said:
I quit and came home with a little over $6,000. So I saw both the good sides and the bad sides of this progression.
It sounds like you saw mostly the good side! That’s very good news. You were very lucky. Just don’t get too attached to that money yet. If you keep using a progression system you will eventually give it all back to the casino (and then some!).

Have fun, but play safe! :)

-Sonny-
 
#48
Hard to believe how many fools play BJ today. BJ book authors have a good relationship with casinos. I guess that is why Barona gave lifetime comp's to Wong, Hyland, Ed Thorpe, James Grosjean and Ken Uston. Strange bedfellows.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#49
countfast said:
BJ book authors have a good relationship with casinos. I guess that is why Barona gave lifetime comp's to Wong, Hyland, Ed Thorpe, James Grosjean and Ken Uston. Strange bedfellows.
Ken Uston died almost 10 years ago. I think it's safe to say that he never received any comps from Barona. Ed Thorp (no "e" in his last name) moved away from BJ in the 60's to invent the stock market "hedging" technique where he made a fortune.

You also failed to mention that Barona offers them comps with the condition that they never play BJ there. Wong doesn't care because he knows how to beat craps now. Grosjean is all over CVI and Biometrica after winning his lawsuits against Imperial Palace, Caesars and Griffin Investigations so he wouldn't go near the place anyway. Do a little research, buddy.

countfast said:
Hard to believe how many fools play BJ today.
I couldn't agree more! :laugh:

-Sonny-
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#50
It is just a marketing ploy

countfast said:
Hard to believe how many fools play BJ today. BJ book authors have a good relationship with casinos. I guess that is why Barona gave lifetime comp's to Wong, Hyland, Ed Thorpe, James Grosjean and Ken Uston. Strange bedfellows.
Wong gets thrown out of the Nugget where he was foolish enough to think he had a relationship with them. Hyland is still on the most wanted list of most casinos but his teams are still out there. Thorp left blackjack over 30 something years ago. Grosjean gets arrested for playing at a Vegas casino and lands up winning a lawsuit and Uston has been dead for 10 years. Where in the world is this good relationship?
The blackjack museum is just a marketing thing, perhaps Max Rubin's idea at Barona.
Rubin does bring up your side of the equation though. Rubin was a counter but also a casino executive. He played both sides of the street very well and I had an uncle who did the same thing, but Rubin has always been upfront about this.
Anothy Curtis found a way to make money from the casinos and their customers where he gave up advantage play and had to become friendly with the casinos. Neither Curtis or Rubin though were ever considered great advantage players or even close to it. Also, neither Curtis or Rubin have been know to rat out advantage players that they know.

ihate17
 

ortango

Well-Known Member
#51
Guido said:
I am new to this forum as well, and have found it very interesting so far. I was in Las Vegas a year ago and found a progression that worked well for me, but could also cost you a lot of money. It's pretty simple. The unit bets are 1, 3, 2, 4 and then back to one again. If you lose, you go back to one. The guy I found this out from is a dealer, and he said that you have a much better chance of winning 2 hands in a row instead of 3 or 4. By increasing your second bet to 3, if you win, then lose the next hand, you are still ahead 2. BUT, and it's a very big BUT, if you can't win two in a row, your money will go down pretty fast, so you have to manage your bankroll extra carefully. I was very fortunate when I used this system. I started with $300 and played for about 6 hours at one table. I kept increasing my money and started to increase me betting amounts. I started with $5, then went to $10, then $25, then $100 and near the end I was betting $500 to $1,000 per hand. I ended up winning $7,000, which was pretty amazing. The next night I was up $600, went to a $25 table and lost $1,250. That was it for my trip. I quit and came home with a little over $6,000. So I saw both the good sides and the bad sides of this progression.

Has anyone else ever tried this one? I used the simulator and played about 150 hands, and won just at 42% and was $5 ahead based on $5 betting increments. The simulator must have gotten 10 blackjacks and kept drawing out on me. I had 95% correct plays. :)
Lets pretend the average bet you placed that during a trip is $25, and you played 1000 hands. Your results would be the same as if you played progressively or with a flat $25 bet on each hand. Why? Because you bet according to streaks, (no meaningful change to following hands) instead of remaining deck composition (huge change to following hands).
 

Knox

Well-Known Member
#52
josh3623 said:
your chances of losing 7 hands in a row, is approx. 1 in 300 assuming you win 48% of the time, but in my expierience it happens slightly more often, on average more like 1 in 200 hands.
At a 48% win rate, your chances of losing 7 hands in a row are about 1 in 136. At 100 hands per hour, that could happen pretty quickly!
 
#53
little John said:
I'm new to this site but I've just got to share a betting system that I used to win over $45,000 in just a few days of play. First I should say I'm a pretty new player, and I'd lost alot of money just learning to play. But one night as I was playing an old pit boss stood next to me and said the following. Young man I've been watching you for some time now, and I wanted to complement your play. I fact in all the time I've spent watching you you've not made even one wrong play, however if you don't mind me saying so, you don't have clu one about betting. He then told me he was going to take a break in a few minutes and he wondered if I would meet him outside at that time. So a few minutes later I followed the old gent outside and he told me a little about himself. He said he made alot more money in the players seat than he did on the floor. I never asked him why he didn't play full time. Perhaps I should have. But what he taught me has worked for me at my local casino and also in Las Vegas. The system is a (modified martingale). It's simple and although it requires a bit of guts and fairly full pockets it works. It goes like this. Basic unit times two plus one unit with a cap. Win return to basic unit. $15,$45,$135,$405,$1215. This isn't exactly how I play it for two reasons. First, at my local casino the table limit for the $15 tables is $1000. Second I don't go beyond the fourth bet often, and frankly I don't often need too. Thirdly until I'm up over one thousand I don't make the thousand dollar max bet. Once I'm up $5000 I switch to a $25 table. and the progression is $25, $75, $225, $675, $2000. However I don't make the max bet until I'm up $12,000. One night I walked to the window with $17,000. Many time I've cleared over $5,000. On more than one night I've had hotel security walk me to my room with my pockets stuffed with the casinos money. I've taught this system to players at the table and I've seen more than one person walk away with thousands of the houses money. This system requires one to play for long hours to win. And I must add that seeking to play catch up after a string of losses is almost always a disaster. Two things I can't say to strongly is don't sit down short on cash. And if you find that you've lost three cycles of bets with any one dealer "walk". A cycle is 15 45 135 405 or 25 75 225 675. Thats twelve hands in a row, And I've found that hot dealers don't often cool. Most important is perfect basic play.


This was posted by little john a while ago. I was just wondering, with this strategy do you progress from the 15 bet to the 45 regardless if it is a win or loss, or do you only progress when winning. What happens if you lose the 405 do you go back to 15?

In addition, I have been using a 2-5-12 chip progression. You increase when winning and return to the 2 chip bet after any loss. Also, if you win the 12 bet you let it ride until you lose, then go back to 2. Baiscally you don't win till the 12 bet where it is 5(your chips) and 7(house chips). Is this a good strategy?
 
#55
Yea i have read them all, however the way little john described his system was confusing. In the long run progressive betting will leave you with nothing, however, i still like to play like this every once in a while. I have done well with it for now, the key is walking away. My normal progressive strategy is progressing only when winning then returning to the minimum bet in the event of a loss, is this the same?

I just wanted to know, with this strategy do you progress from the 15 bet to the 45 regardless if it is a win or loss, or do you only progress when winning. What happens if you lose the 405 do you go back to 15?
 

dacium

Well-Known Member
#56
Little John is either a liar or has gotton extremely luck. If he really won $100k at a casino progression betting they would BE ALL OVER HIM, They would be offering him free plane rides and accomodation to come back. Infact his posts are the most rediculous things I have ever heard on the internet.
 

caramel6

Well-Known Member
#57
win without counting

Hi, mates, of course I realise advantage of counting and all mathematics.

However, a QUESTION: did anyone of you suceed in winnign money on a REGULAR basis (for example at least a year, playing 2-3 times a week) using other strategies than counting?
 
#58
caramel6 said:
Hi, mates, of course I realise advantage of counting and all mathematics.

However, a QUESTION: did anyone of you suceed in winnign money on a REGULAR basis (for example at least a year, playing 2-3 times a week) using other strategies than counting?
The answer is yes.
Playing frequency: 6-8 times a year
Duration : over 20 years.
Stategy: modified Fibonacci progression.

PS; this post will probably be removed.
 
#59
The answer is yes.
Playing frequency: 6-8 times a year
Duration : over 20 years.
Stategy: modified Fibonacci progression.

PS; this post will probably be removed.
Same thing here playing on a re-creative basis. Lately using a home grown progression. Have been playing for about 20 years. Profits are only in the thousands, but I only play on minimum tables (i.e. 1$, 5$, 10$ or 15$)
 

caramel6

Well-Known Member
#60
picasso said:
Same thing here playing on a re-creative basis. Lately using a home grown progression. Have been playing for about 20 years. Profits are only in the thousands, but I only play on minimum tables (i.e. 1$, 5$, 10$ or 15$)
Hi, Picasso, if you are so confident in your system, why not to increase bets?

Anyone else winning without counting REGULARLY, not just a few month??
 
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