Basic Stragies with hunch works better....

[bluestar]

playing basic strategy(not looking at the chart specically for Cryptologic's 6deck) plus my hunches seem to work a hell of alot better in short and long runs than following these strategy card. Do you think my method is risky I should i really apply the charts?

My basic method is using bs + hunch + knowning when to dd.

I haven't played for money yet, just because I'd prefer to know my odds(luck) with each online casino first.

 

[BJStanko]

1+1 = 2

1+1=2
2+2=4


Blackjack Basic Strategy is not made up of hunches. It is caculated, simulated and proven thing.

It is the only correct way to play each hand.

Now if you want to use hunches insted of BS...... it's your money.

 

[bluestar]

i guess you didn't understand me correctly. I am using bs, just not from specific charts for specific games. I just have found sometimes "hitting" instead of standing, or vice versa to whatever the chart reads I'll win that hand, playing the chart exact gives me more losses that's all. I don't know, I'll have to do some more statistics. I'm fairly new at this, just because I'm going to vegas in a month and I like to be more in control of my riches ( :
Maybe its because I got the chart from wizardofodds and not the generated one from here.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

Maybe its because I got the chart from wizardofodds and not the generated one from here.

Doubtful. Basic strategy is the same... just make sure you are following the appropriate "book" based upon the rules of your table.

Hunches may work over the short term, but straight Basic Strategy over the long haul will earn you more money with more consistency.

There are always times to go with the hunch. This past weekend I got five small cards to make a 16 and there was no way I was taking another, regardless of the book. Since there is a 30% probability at any time of taking a 10 or a face, I knew the odds were definitely in favor of my busting. I stood, and the dealer ended up taking that ten and I saved the whole table.

But that's not a great example, because basic strategy is statistically designed for action when you have two cards up, not three. You might want to read the article "What Comes After Basic Strategy in Blackjack?" by Fred Renzey at http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/article/what-comes-after-basic-strategy-in-blackjack-21796

Like someone said to me when I made comments similar to yours in one of my first posts... basic strategy wasn't invented overnight. I believe in it. I have dealers shaking their head when I follow it EXACTLY as shown, and shaking their head with as much amazement when I win the hand.

Can you win without BS? Absolutely. I sure as hell did this past summer in Vegas. I was an idiot and still made out like a bandit. But I guarantee that if I continued playing that way for the next 10 years I would lose a TON of money.

Call me a kool-aid drinker, but I am sold on basic strategy.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

I am using bs, just not from specific charts for specific games.

Then you aren't using basic strategy, my friend.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

Keep in mind that Basic Strategy is not something cooked up in the last two weeks. It has been proven time and time again with everything from simulations to pure probability studies.

With props to my man, Mikeaber... I am but a padwan learner... LISTEN TO THE JEDI MASTERS!

 

[Mikeaber]

BlueStar....Basic Strategy makes no guarantees that you are going to win every hand that you follow Basic Strategy in playing. What it does is give you the best chance of winning more than if you deviate from it without good reason. Good reason is deviation based upon a knowledge of the composition of the deck (cards remaining prior to the next shuffle.) This is done obviously by utilizing one of the counting systems.

My recommendation is that when you have a hunch or gut feeling about a hand...call it "gas" take a Rolaids and stick with the strategy. Or go ahead and play the hunch if following wild geese gives you more pleasure than winning the most in the long run. I mean no offense by that...seriously! My point is that even though you feel light headed, you cannot defy gravity and fly. Blackjack is a numbers game and overall win/loss is predictable. Basic Strategy states the optimum method of playing in order to maximize the wins (or minimize the loses!)

 

[Jeff Dubya]

I am reading the book "Knock Out Blackjack" and there is a great quote in there that seems relevant to this conversation.

"Chance favors the prepared mind"

- Louis Pasteur

 

[BOGEY21]

I agree 100% that Basic Stratey is mathmatically sound in the LONG TERM. But many of us don't play for extended periods of time which means (at least to me) that the results obtained in the SHORT TERM can often deviate from LONG TERM Basic Strategy percentages. If this is true, I see nothing wrong playing hunches from time to time, for example not hitting a 15 or 16 vs dealer 10 or not doubling down on a 10 vs a dealer 9.

GEORGE

 

[Mikeaber]

Bogey....long-term, short-term...it doesn't change the probabilities. Your best chance of winning is going to be to follow BS whether you are playing 1 hour or 10,000 hours. If you really want to improve your percentages, learn to augment your knowledge of the best time to deviate by getting a bit of information. Hmmm, rereading that made it sound "insulting" and I didn't mean it that way. I simply meant that you need to get information about the current composition of the deck. But without that information (counting or at least observation) your best bet is to follow the charts.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

BOGEY21, isn't our primary goal to reduce the house advantage as much as possible?

Playing basic strategy will reduce the house edge to .5%. Period, end of story. Playing hunches will not.

One thing I would like to add from my recent personal experience, you mentioned "Many of us don't play for extended periods of time." I'm not sure what you mean by that, but let's assume for the sake of discussion that you play short stretches where you might, say, go to a casino at 6 PM and plan on leaving at 7 PM. I believe this kind of playing strategy gives the house an additional edge.

When you go to play, you need to be fairly open ended. Sometimes you can increase or double up quickly. Sometimes it takes several hours to break even. Either way, you need to have the time available to play out your hands and let the percentages resolve themselves.

I almost posted a question regarding time vs. advantage a week or so ago, so I would love to hear the opinions of some more experienced players on the forum as well. I could be wrong on this, but something tells me I am spot on.

 

[E-town-guy]

Manray you are incorrect. You just stated that the casino's edge is 0.5% if you play perfect basic strategy. How could playing a certain length of time affect your's or the casino's edge? If you play 1hr the casino's edge is 0.5%, if you play 10hr the edge is 0.5% and if you play 24hr straight the casino's edge is still 0.5%.

Sure you could go up or down quickly in an hour and likely the amount you win or lose won't be what one would predict based on the casino's edge but in the long run it will balance out, it might just take a lot more sessions if you're playing short 1hr sessions as opposed to 5hr sessions.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

But that is my point.

Even assuming a .5% casino edge, if you go down quickly, you need to play for a more extended period of time to let the odds balance out.

Even you said "but in the long run it will balance out, it might just take a lot more sessions if you're playing short 1hr sessions as opposed to 5hr sessions"

BOGEY said "many of us don't play for extended periods of time which means (at least to me) that the results obtained in the SHORT TERM can often deviate from LONG TERM Basic Strategy percentages."

I have gone down quickly, but if I can stick around to play it out AND provided my bankroll is sufficient, I can usually get back to ground zero. Since we're talking short term vs. long term, I still think my observation is valid. You practically said the exact same thing.

All I was saying is that is BOGEY had problems playing short term, it was likely that very term of play would affect him in a negative fashion, as would playing against the book.

 

[BOGEY21]

When I say SHORT TERM I really mean SHORT, SHORT TERM. For example let's say that I sit down at a $5 table with $100 with a goal to make $20 to $25 (20% to 25% of my BR) and will walk away if I lose 4 straight hands or $70 to $80 my $100 original BR. As I may have hit one of my parameters (either win or lose) in 4 or 5 hands and be on my way to the Sports Book and a cold beer real quick, I think variations from basic strategy in the SHORT TERM based on hunches leaves me in no worse a position than exactly following basic strategy. I will grant you, however, that enough SHORT TERMS should eventually add up to LONG TERM and make playing educated hunches a losing long term proposition. The main question I struggle with is "what effect does moving from different tables with different sized decks at different casinos have on all this"?

 

[Jeff Dubya]

Ahhh... I understand. A "strafing run." Fun, fun.

I had some fun with those last time I was in Las Vegas. Made some money too. Then again, lost some money doing that.

But if I did that today, I would still play BS. However, if I saw something funky come out of the shoe, like a ton of small cards, I might deviate slightly. But then, I'd probably lose.

BS is nothing but a mathematical probability. If you want to increase your odds for any hand, in my opinion, you should use it.

If you want to straight up gamble, that is to guess... that's the choice we all make at the table. However, you should calculate the odds first. There are probably better payoffs at other games. I mean, if you are going to give up your edge, go for it and go all in!

And that's the 2 cents of someone who is relatively new at this game - worse than some and better than many.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

BTW last time I did that is when I came out of the buffet at Bellagio, fat, tipsy and happy. Played $100 money play on a table.

Won.

Pulled my original $100 back and played $100 again.

Won.

Pulled $100 back and played $100 again.

Won.

Pulled $100 back and played $100 again.

Blackjack. God, I love black chips.

Tipped the dealer $25 and left fat, tipsy and happier. (Get out while the getting is good.) Of course, the dude who let me interrupt his heads up session *probably* wasn't that happy with me. In fact, I'm lucky he didn't do some WWE move on me with his chair. That's the kind of beginner's luck I was talking about.