Black Jack or Craps
- Thread starter collegebj
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The first thing I would like to point out is PL/5X odds pays the same as a place bet on 6 or 8, PL/4X odds pays the same as a place bet on the 5 or 9, and PL/3X odds on the 4 or 10 pays almost as much as the place bet and you would need about 9X odds for a buy bet. The advantage is in the come out bonus on your PL wager. Since you need to bet the pass, dont pass or both to throw the dice it is reasonable to bet the odds if that is a number you would bet anyway. You may be betting on a number whose frequency has gone down due to your influence on the dice. The math in the first part took some minor liberties but since your ssr of 6.5 is approximate I wont worry about it. The math in the question part was so messed up I stopped reading it. Just to site 1 example 8 times you win on a come out on the PL and 3 times you lose. Did he forget you lose the 12 on the come out or that the higher ssr hurts the come out portion of the PL bet.
I am not sure he has his advantages correct for each level of odds but it is a moot point. The numbers quoted are an approximation based on the averaging of the fewer sevens to increase the other 30 possibilities by an equal amount. That is not how DI works. This assumption is entirely inaccurate and any conclusions based on it are not to be trusted. Other numbers will also be underrepresented while the remainder will either stay the same or go up by a lot more than the approximate value to balance the underrepresented numbers.
To truly know you are playing at an advantage you must know the new roll distributions and compare it to the payoffs for each bet. By taking the odds you are averaging your unknown risk factor across all points. If you dont know the new distribution of rolls it is a safe play (it may not put you at an advantage) but I have seen dice controllers who only increased the crazy crapper rolls not the point numbers. I saw a dice controller roll a 53 and 37 of the rolls were 2,3,11, or 12. I couldnt believe it. It pays to track all the rolls. I couldnt bring myself to hop bet him but I started to field bet and made good money. I hate having to bet bets that lose other than to the 7.
The first thing I would like to point out is PL/5X odds pays the same as a place bet on 6 or 8, PL/4X odds pays the same as a place bet on the 5 or 9, and PL/3X odds on the 4 or 10 pays almost as much as the place bet and you would need about 9X odds for a buy bet. The advantage is in the come out bonus on your PL wager. Since you need to bet the pass, dont pass or both to throw the dice it is reasonable to bet the odds if that is a number you would bet anyway. You may be betting on a number whose frequency has gone down due to your influence on the dice. The math in the first part took some minor liberties but since your ssr of 6.5 is approximate I wont worry about it. The math in the question part was so messed up I stopped reading it. Just to site 1 example 8 times you win on a come out on the PL and 3 times you lose. Did he forget you lose the 12 on the come out or that the higher ssr hurts the come out portion of the PL bet.
I am not sure he has his advantages correct for each level of odds but it is a moot point. The numbers quoted are an approximation based on the averaging of the fewer sevens to increase the other 30 possibilities by an equal amount. That is not how DI works. This assumption is entirely inaccurate and any conclusions based on it are not to be trusted. Other numbers will also be underrepresented while the remainder will either stay the same or go up by a lot more than the approximate value to balance the underrepresented numbers.
To truly know you are playing at an advantage you must know the new roll distributions and compare it to the payoffs for each bet. By taking the odds you are averaging your unknown risk factor across all points. If you dont know the new distribution of rolls it is a safe play (it may not put you at an advantage) but I have seen dice controllers who only increased the crazy crapper rolls not the point numbers. I saw a dice controller roll a 53 and 37 of the rolls were 2,3,11, or 12. I couldnt believe it. It pays to track all the rolls. I couldnt bring myself to hop bet him but I started to field bet and made good money. I hate having to bet bets that lose other than to the 7.
Where did he pull his 50% win rate for odds bets from
I ran the numbers for ssr 6.5 assuming an even distribution of the reduced seven rate across the other rolls. This is the win rate I came up with:
Point 6 or 8 => 47.83% his number 49%
Point 5 or 9 => 42.31% his number 43%
Point 4 or 10 => 35.4% his number 37%
Like I said minor liberties. How does he get from there to all his question and answer parts that show how great off you are with an ssr 6.5 while using a 50% win rate to illustrate his point? Ssr 6.5 doesnt even come close to that win rate.
I ran the numbers for ssr 6.5 assuming an even distribution of the reduced seven rate across the other rolls. This is the win rate I came up with:
Point 6 or 8 => 47.83% his number 49%
Point 5 or 9 => 42.31% his number 43%
Point 4 or 10 => 35.4% his number 37%
Like I said minor liberties. How does he get from there to all his question and answer parts that show how great off you are with an ssr 6.5 while using a 50% win rate to illustrate his point? Ssr 6.5 doesnt even come close to that win rate.
Only way you're going to make any money at craps with that bankroll is $100 passline with full odds and $25 come bets and hope to get lucky and run into a hot shooter. Unless you're going to attempt to "cheat" the game. I like the suggestion of the grind of $5-$60 on the BJ games you speak of.
Don't gamble, you are better saving money if you plan on gambling and "hitting it big" bro.
Don't gamble, you are better saving money if you plan on gambling and "hitting it big" bro.
Your right that is the only way. Just like the only way to win bj is to pretend the dealer always has a ten. >.>
Your last sentence made no sense, dont gamble if you intend to gamble? huh? Anyways, i never said i wanted to hit it big, my question was could i achieve results with craps, with my BR, if i could achieve some skill through practice. I believed i would have a lower risk that way. We have all sat down at a bj table and lost 5 max bets in a row. I couldnt take a 300 dollar hit to my BR comfortably. With craps, if playing max odds, i could only lose 55 in one roll. The chances of crapping out after making a point 6 rolls in a row in craps is much less then losing 5 or 6 hands at high counts in blackjack. Even though you have an advantage at high counts, you will still lose more hands then you win, the extra blackjakcs with the 3:2 payoff make it worthwhile in the long run. If i cant make it there though, then whats the point? If you have nothing intelligent to add to this, then stay out thank you. There are many people here who believe/take part in DI, just an fyi.
Okay, here's whats probably going to happen if you choose craps.
You are going to set up some kind of practice rig (if you're smart) and start rolling. You will probably get pretty good at getting a consistent throw and believe you are good enough to hit the real tables when actually you haven't achieved any statistically relevant result yet.
Then you will start playing. If you are lucky you will start out hot on a winning streak and build up a larger bankroll. Then you will start betting more because you're winning but will eventually lose it all back.
If you are not lucky you will start out losing because you haven't really achieved the D.I. skill yet. If you are smart you will notice this on the table and go back to practicing, but more than likely you will just keep throwing the bets out and losing.
Okay, I am really not trying to insult you but I am a recent college grad too who has been playing BJ for around 5 years and trying out dice control for around a year. It is hard as S***!
- Dye
You are going to set up some kind of practice rig (if you're smart) and start rolling. You will probably get pretty good at getting a consistent throw and believe you are good enough to hit the real tables when actually you haven't achieved any statistically relevant result yet.
Then you will start playing. If you are lucky you will start out hot on a winning streak and build up a larger bankroll. Then you will start betting more because you're winning but will eventually lose it all back.
If you are not lucky you will start out losing because you haven't really achieved the D.I. skill yet. If you are smart you will notice this on the table and go back to practicing, but more than likely you will just keep throwing the bets out and losing.
Okay, I am really not trying to insult you but I am a recent college grad too who has been playing BJ for around 5 years and trying out dice control for around a year. It is hard as S***!
- Dye
I understand your point on the first post, but i am assuming he is not factoring in which number gets the bonus of more rolls since their are supposedly less sevens coming out. My question is would the added advantage on say the 4 and the 10(example, pretend these are the numbers you now shoot more often, that you are getting by now rolling more of these, outweigh the disadvantage you might receive by also not rolling as many say 5 and 9s? As long as you are rolling less sevens to push all three sets of points over the HE then it wouldn't matter which ones got the bigger edge? It might not be the most optimum betting plan, but would it not still produce an edge?
Those are with 3/4/5x odds correct? So its safe to assume with 10x odds, which is what is available to me, that those would increase some correct?
I just reread the article again, i think you must of interpreted it wrong in the 50% win rate. The only time a number close to that is mentioned is later in the article while talking about shooting point number more then once in a turn. This part didnt make much sense to me the first time through it either, but not after going over again im assuming this is what he is doing.
advantage gained from 3/4/5x odds with points number with 6.5 SRR + the odds gained when factoring in that you are more likely to have repeat points made with a high SRR then random.
If you are saying his math is incorrect in the first part when figuring the advantage from just a SRR of 6.5 with your odds on certain points ide like to see the correct math. If he is wrong and you can prove it ide be very thankful, cause as of now i believe him, but if hes wrong that could be bad for my bankroll.
Those are with 3/4/5x odds correct? So its safe to assume with 10x odds, which is what is available to me, that those would increase some correct?
I just reread the article again, i think you must of interpreted it wrong in the 50% win rate. The only time a number close to that is mentioned is later in the article while talking about shooting point number more then once in a turn. This part didnt make much sense to me the first time through it either, but not after going over again im assuming this is what he is doing.
advantage gained from 3/4/5x odds with points number with 6.5 SRR + the odds gained when factoring in that you are more likely to have repeat points made with a high SRR then random.
If you are saying his math is incorrect in the first part when figuring the advantage from just a SRR of 6.5 with your odds on certain points ide like to see the correct math. If he is wrong and you can prove it ide be very thankful, cause as of now i believe him, but if hes wrong that could be bad for my bankroll.
Im already working on my practice rig. Now if i really am smart like you implied earlier (thank you), then why would i go to the casino without looking at the roll data to see what my edge is? There are some very nice tools out and about for this. Ide like to assume the AP in me from reading so many blackjack books would protect me from making stupid decisions of a degenerate gambler. I know the edge comes from betting correctly based on which odds you are impacting by what you rolls more often. I am going to do my homework, i wish people would understand this. I care way to much about my money to throw it away without a verified edge. If i an achieve that, then i believe craps would be the safer route. Thats what i wanted opinions on.
I have read your posts from awhile back and was curious as to how it has worked out for you. If it hasn't at all, which i am kinda assuming from your post, then maybe you personally are not cut out for it, yet i could still be. No offense meant, no different then how some are not meant to count cards, some have different levels of abilities in different things. Me being an athlete believe i could maybe use that to create an edge at the casino, no different then some using their brains to do the same. With craps i would just have to use some of both talents.
Edit: i really hope you take nothing above as meant to be offensive. Was only trying to make the point of different strokes for different fokes. While im able to count i dont particularly enjoy doing it any more. The whole game of blackjack just kind of bores me. Dont get me wrong, i still love to play occasionally but when i walk into a casino, my first choice is craps and if its possible to beat, i want to be able to. I learned to count because i hate losing, always have, but what fun is winning if im bored?
I have read your posts from awhile back and was curious as to how it has worked out for you. If it hasn't at all, which i am kinda assuming from your post, then maybe you personally are not cut out for it, yet i could still be. No offense meant, no different then how some are not meant to count cards, some have different levels of abilities in different things. Me being an athlete believe i could maybe use that to create an edge at the casino, no different then some using their brains to do the same. With craps i would just have to use some of both talents.
Edit: i really hope you take nothing above as meant to be offensive. Was only trying to make the point of different strokes for different fokes. While im able to count i dont particularly enjoy doing it any more. The whole game of blackjack just kind of bores me. Dont get me wrong, i still love to play occasionally but when i walk into a casino, my first choice is craps and if its possible to beat, i want to be able to. I learned to count because i hate losing, always have, but what fun is winning if im bored?
Did you look at the question and answer part of that literature? He is talking about winning 50% of the points. That is not what you will experience with ssr 6.5. You will win about 43% of your points. You will lose about 57% of your points. The math you are sold on is not what will experience. I would put my bets up on the numbers I decide not the comeout. You are talking about 18 bets to start with. I would really try to crawl before I try to fly.
Sometimes before a trip I would practice several hours a day for 3 days as always and find I was really getting the tumble from both dice but with my standard setting I was rolling lots of sevens. I would expect an ssr of about 12 with the outstanding control I had but was seeing an ssr of 4. I would have to spend hours with pen and paper figuring out what dice setting to use so my control would produce the most advantageous results.
I went to the casino and my dad kept pointing out I wasnt using the right setting of the dice. I would tell him I know what I am doing and rolled sixes and eights 2 out of every 3 rolls. Had I not known how to adjust the best control of my life would have produced a lot of sevens. There is a lot more to DI than you realize.
Sometimes before a trip I would practice several hours a day for 3 days as always and find I was really getting the tumble from both dice but with my standard setting I was rolling lots of sevens. I would expect an ssr of about 12 with the outstanding control I had but was seeing an ssr of 4. I would have to spend hours with pen and paper figuring out what dice setting to use so my control would produce the most advantageous results.
I went to the casino and my dad kept pointing out I wasnt using the right setting of the dice. I would tell him I know what I am doing and rolled sixes and eights 2 out of every 3 rolls. Had I not known how to adjust the best control of my life would have produced a lot of sevens. There is a lot more to DI than you realize.
Why you used a pen and paper with tools like bonetracker is what i dont understand. I think i understand more then what people are giving me credit for. That being said he isnt saying you will make 50% of your points. He is saying the 50% being able to repeat a point.
~Let’s say that our shooter hits it about 43% of the time. That means he’ll be 7’ing-Out before repeating it, about 57% of the time.
~Again though, even with that 43%-to-57% imbalance between winning PL-Points and losing PL-Points on a 3x/4x/5x-Odds table, he’ll still produce a 3.2% return on his total PL w/Odds investment.
If he steps it up to 10x-Odds at a higher-Odds house; his edge climbs to 11.55%.
Take a similar look when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8:
~A random-roller will likely repeat it about 45.5% of the time.
~Let’s say that our shooter hits it about 49% of the time. That means he’ll be 7’ing-Out before repeating it, about 51% of the time.
~Even with the 49%/51% imbalance between repeating and not repeating his PL-Points on a 3x/4x/5x-Odds table, he’ll produce a 6.2% return on his total PL w/Odds investment.
If he brings those exact same shooting skills
I think either we are reading different posts or im missing something, quotes would be helpful.
And where are you getting 18 bets? If i bet the way the article says ide have 2. 5 one the passline, and then odds.
~Let’s say that our shooter hits it about 43% of the time. That means he’ll be 7’ing-Out before repeating it, about 57% of the time.
~Again though, even with that 43%-to-57% imbalance between winning PL-Points and losing PL-Points on a 3x/4x/5x-Odds table, he’ll still produce a 3.2% return on his total PL w/Odds investment.
If he steps it up to 10x-Odds at a higher-Odds house; his edge climbs to 11.55%.
Take a similar look when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8:
~A random-roller will likely repeat it about 45.5% of the time.
~Let’s say that our shooter hits it about 49% of the time. That means he’ll be 7’ing-Out before repeating it, about 51% of the time.
~Even with the 49%/51% imbalance between repeating and not repeating his PL-Points on a 3x/4x/5x-Odds table, he’ll produce a 6.2% return on his total PL w/Odds investment.
If he brings those exact same shooting skills
I think either we are reading different posts or im missing something, quotes would be helpful.
And where are you getting 18 bets? If i bet the way the article says ide have 2. 5 one the passline, and then odds.
Error in method due to false mathematical assumption
You have one of each color die. Each die has 6 different numbers on it. Tracking the numbers rolled on each die tells you everything. It tells you if you are hitting the four sides of the tumble. Which specific sides are rolling on each die and as a 2 side pair (total). Each 2 side pair would produce a different total with each dice setting possibility. If you are getting consistently bad results(ssr wise) a couple hours working the permutations of dice settings can turn your results for the same exact throw to great results had you set the dice differently. Great control can produce horrific results but a different setting can produce outstanding results for the same exact set of rolls. I never worry about ssr when I practice. It is meaningless. Showing you are consistently changing the probability distribution significantly is what matters. If I cannt correlate it to the tumble any change in probability is viewed as random.
Like I said the statistics are tough. You cannt have enough in a short period of time to be sure the data is significant without fatigue and other factors randomizing your result. You will never have enough for the law of large numbers to help. Whenever I exhibited good control with my favorite setting (v 3 on the front) I would roll fewer fives or nines. If I bet the PL and the point went to 5 or 9 my odds bet would be at a disadvantage even with ssr 9. Sixes and eights were most over represented and 4 and 10 were over represented. If my PL bet kept going to the 5 and 9 I would get my head handed to me if I took odds. I always worked the come out when I threw because the PL hedged my place bets on the 6 and 8 and if they were wiped out by a comeout 7 I still had the dice. I didnt have to wait for them to come around the table to me.
As you can see his math based on averaging the loss of sevens in the sampling averaged across all the other numbers is a false assumption and produces errant results. The numbers that pick up the slack may be 2,3,11, and 12. Your point may be even more under represented than the seven.
18*55 = 990 Your $1000 bankroll can make 18 bets.
Making 50% of your points and repeating the point number 50% of the time is the same thing.
The most true statement he makes is: "You could have ungodly powers when it comes to controlling the dice; but if your bets arent matched to take maximal advantage of your skills; then you are likely to continue losing as much as you always have".
What both of you fail to realize is you have made no effort to find your optimal bet. You chose the lowest house edge bet and hoped by changing the the ssr you would create an advantage. It is the ratio of the point to the seven that must change. Without knowing how the control affected the rate the point is rolled you dont know which direction the house edge was moved. Typically you raise the rate of some proposition bets and a pair of numbers the most. The others loss frequency or stay about the same. Your task as a controller is to bet on the numbers whose frequency is raised when the seven is lowered in frequency. That is when your bets take maximal advantage of your skills.
You have one of each color die. Each die has 6 different numbers on it. Tracking the numbers rolled on each die tells you everything. It tells you if you are hitting the four sides of the tumble. Which specific sides are rolling on each die and as a 2 side pair (total). Each 2 side pair would produce a different total with each dice setting possibility. If you are getting consistently bad results(ssr wise) a couple hours working the permutations of dice settings can turn your results for the same exact throw to great results had you set the dice differently. Great control can produce horrific results but a different setting can produce outstanding results for the same exact set of rolls. I never worry about ssr when I practice. It is meaningless. Showing you are consistently changing the probability distribution significantly is what matters. If I cannt correlate it to the tumble any change in probability is viewed as random.
Like I said the statistics are tough. You cannt have enough in a short period of time to be sure the data is significant without fatigue and other factors randomizing your result. You will never have enough for the law of large numbers to help. Whenever I exhibited good control with my favorite setting (v 3 on the front) I would roll fewer fives or nines. If I bet the PL and the point went to 5 or 9 my odds bet would be at a disadvantage even with ssr 9. Sixes and eights were most over represented and 4 and 10 were over represented. If my PL bet kept going to the 5 and 9 I would get my head handed to me if I took odds. I always worked the come out when I threw because the PL hedged my place bets on the 6 and 8 and if they were wiped out by a comeout 7 I still had the dice. I didnt have to wait for them to come around the table to me.
As you can see his math based on averaging the loss of sevens in the sampling averaged across all the other numbers is a false assumption and produces errant results. The numbers that pick up the slack may be 2,3,11, and 12. Your point may be even more under represented than the seven.
18*55 = 990 Your $1000 bankroll can make 18 bets.
Making 50% of your points and repeating the point number 50% of the time is the same thing.
The most true statement he makes is: "You could have ungodly powers when it comes to controlling the dice; but if your bets arent matched to take maximal advantage of your skills; then you are likely to continue losing as much as you always have".
What both of you fail to realize is you have made no effort to find your optimal bet. You chose the lowest house edge bet and hoped by changing the the ssr you would create an advantage. It is the ratio of the point to the seven that must change. Without knowing how the control affected the rate the point is rolled you dont know which direction the house edge was moved. Typically you raise the rate of some proposition bets and a pair of numbers the most. The others loss frequency or stay about the same. Your task as a controller is to bet on the numbers whose frequency is raised when the seven is lowered in frequency. That is when your bets take maximal advantage of your skills.
What i think your failing to realize is that if your throwing more 4,6,8 and 10s then your more likely to have these as your point as well. Therefore less likely to have the 5,9 where you now have a larger disadvantage. He is doing the math based on not knowing which one you are more likely to hit, as long as you are using one of the 3 seven avoidance sets it wont matter(if your able to keep on axis). As long as your only betting with pl and odds, and you can show you are rolling less seven then random(which is what SRR determines), you are at the advantage. The fact you may now roll less 5,9s, thus lowering your edge on these is negated since you are now rolling more of all the other points and raising your edge on these.
Whats the odds of losing 18 bets in craps without one win? Im guessing way less likely then that of doing the same in blackjack. That was my thinking behind this whole thing. That if i could produce even a small edge, i would be safer then going with blackjack. Why your arguing with me about this article i dont understand. I agree with your point that you should bet according to your advantage. Thats pretty common sense in my eyes. I also agree with you that one set can be horrible and another great for the same shooter. Hence why i mentioned bonetracker. I believe its that program that will analyse your roll data and tell you which set will give you best results with the best bets for you. The only thing i disagree with is that you believe he is wrong on his math. I think he is right that as long as you are throwing fewer sevens then random, when just playing the pl and odds you will have the advantage in the long run.
edit: The 50%, which is actually 49% is when he is talking about winning the 6,8 only. Which you said was truly 47% if i believe so not sure where the confusion is?
Whats the odds of losing 18 bets in craps without one win? Im guessing way less likely then that of doing the same in blackjack. That was my thinking behind this whole thing. That if i could produce even a small edge, i would be safer then going with blackjack. Why your arguing with me about this article i dont understand. I agree with your point that you should bet according to your advantage. Thats pretty common sense in my eyes. I also agree with you that one set can be horrible and another great for the same shooter. Hence why i mentioned bonetracker. I believe its that program that will analyse your roll data and tell you which set will give you best results with the best bets for you. The only thing i disagree with is that you believe he is wrong on his math. I think he is right that as long as you are throwing fewer sevens then random, when just playing the pl and odds you will have the advantage in the long run.
edit: The 50%, which is actually 49% is when he is talking about winning the 6,8 only. Which you said was truly 47% if i believe so not sure where the confusion is?
I said using his assumption it is 47% not 49%. At ssr 6.5 you win 43% and lose 57%, a difference of 14%. In blackjack a basic strategy player wins 47% and losses 53%, a difference of 6% . I dont think it takes a genius to see blackjack played with basic strategy is far far less likely to lose 18 in a row. A count with a high PE would do even better.
You asked seasoned veterans for advice. It was given to you. You can benefit from it and not have to pay $1000 to learn that RoR applies to dice control and decide you need a lot more than 18 bets. Or you can try to risk it by trying to do AP craps underfunded without using all the tools you have to maximize your advantage and hope the lesson people were willing to give you for free doesnt cost you $1000. It is your money. AP craps is hard and casino counter measures have made it harder.
If you are controlling the dice the small difference in house edge between place bets and odds bets arent going to make a difference. You are better off picking the best number pair to bet on. It will greatly reduce your variance. With 18 bets separating you from ruin you need as much variance control as you can get especially considering the 14% difference between winning percentage and losing percentage. Thats 2.3 times higher than BS (not even counting) in blackjack.
You asked seasoned veterans for advice. It was given to you. You can benefit from it and not have to pay $1000 to learn that RoR applies to dice control and decide you need a lot more than 18 bets. Or you can try to risk it by trying to do AP craps underfunded without using all the tools you have to maximize your advantage and hope the lesson people were willing to give you for free doesnt cost you $1000. It is your money. AP craps is hard and casino counter measures have made it harder.
If you are controlling the dice the small difference in house edge between place bets and odds bets arent going to make a difference. You are better off picking the best number pair to bet on. It will greatly reduce your variance. With 18 bets separating you from ruin you need as much variance control as you can get especially considering the 14% difference between winning percentage and losing percentage. Thats 2.3 times higher than BS (not even counting) in blackjack.
Please stop using whatever % suits you best. I gave you an example, of the 8, which you said was 47.8 and i said he rounded up to 49, that was closest thing to 50% i could find in the article, since you were going on and on about somepart being wrong with 50%.
I didnt know you could only win or lose in blackjack? where the odds for pushing in there. Your negating the fact both ways im playing with an edge. When counting, and wonging agressively(i would have to with my br) your even more likely to lose more hands then you win. In craps, when playing with a proven edge(through "tools") you are more likely to win.
Lets not even factor in the odds of making money on the passline before you make a point.
The 18 bet example was with using full odds, not the 3/4/5 that your getting those percentage from. My edge with just a 6.5 would be even bigger, much larger then i could ever hope to get with counting. Theres no way to debate that. Now i dont understand why you arent comprehending i never said i was going to use the strategy as is in that article. I only used it as an example. I think from my posts its pretty easy to see i plan on using tools around me to find my edge, and use the proper betting scheme based on it, something the program i have now told you about twice does. You just seemed to miss those points, or the ones asking you for math to back up your claims. You just go on about dice sides, something i am already fully aware of. Just because im young does not make me stupid, i have done more reading on the subject in the last week and a half to be able to say i have a decent grasb on the subject. Now i simply need to be able to actually do it.
I am simply trying to defend the article and show you he is correct in his math. It for sure itsnt optimum, he never said it was, he just said it was possible.
I have gotten much advice from many veterans, most not in this post but privately. I have already made up my mind. I appreciate your input nonetheless.
I didnt know you could only win or lose in blackjack? where the odds for pushing in there. Your negating the fact both ways im playing with an edge. When counting, and wonging agressively(i would have to with my br) your even more likely to lose more hands then you win. In craps, when playing with a proven edge(through "tools") you are more likely to win.
Lets not even factor in the odds of making money on the passline before you make a point.
The 18 bet example was with using full odds, not the 3/4/5 that your getting those percentage from. My edge with just a 6.5 would be even bigger, much larger then i could ever hope to get with counting. Theres no way to debate that. Now i dont understand why you arent comprehending i never said i was going to use the strategy as is in that article. I only used it as an example. I think from my posts its pretty easy to see i plan on using tools around me to find my edge, and use the proper betting scheme based on it, something the program i have now told you about twice does. You just seemed to miss those points, or the ones asking you for math to back up your claims. You just go on about dice sides, something i am already fully aware of. Just because im young does not make me stupid, i have done more reading on the subject in the last week and a half to be able to say i have a decent grasb on the subject. Now i simply need to be able to actually do it.
I am simply trying to defend the article and show you he is correct in his math. It for sure itsnt optimum, he never said it was, he just said it was possible.
I have gotten much advice from many veterans, most not in this post but privately. I have already made up my mind. I appreciate your input nonetheless.
Statistics are meaningless unless based on new distribution of rolls not theoretical
The blackjack percentages are negating pushes. Just as the craps percentages negate each toss of the dice that doesnt decide your bet. Have you factored into your win rate per unit of your time how long it is going to take to get the dice again or the length of time it takes to decide a point win or lose. Factoring these into the equation is an important consideration. Just as a counter wants to play head to head with the dealer or have a machine shuffle the cards rather than a dealer shuffle so he gets more hands in per hour so are the factors that must be considered into win rate per unit time at the craps table.
I am not going to explain again how flawed averaging your missing seven frequency across all other numbers is. But when you do average it, the average for all points at ssr 6.5 is 43% win rate for your point on average. I never said you would not have an advantage. I said you were guessing that a favorable change to half of what determines the odds would give you an advantage. If you survive long enough at DI you will know just how wrong that is. If you do the adjustments by hand rather than hope a programmer knew what he was doing you will be able to make adjustments at the table because you will understand what you need to do to adjust.
I havent mentioned my betting strategy because it is necessary to actually have control to make money. The grind described in the article has a fair shot at treading water even if your ability is a delusion. I have seen many who either deluded themselves or never got passed the errant assumptions in the article so they couldnt turn actual ability into profit. Good luck with whatever you decide to do. You are clearly not bankrolled sufficiently for blackjack. You may not be for DI in craps. RoR is a major factor with a lower winning percentage per hand.
I would go easy on the odds until I was sure I had the skill in the casino on the tables that pay you money. You have no idea what the real odds are after your DI changes the probability of all the possible rolls and there is no way to tell for sure. The statistics he put out are meaningless. Based on a very flawed idea of the new probability distribution of the rolls produced when you influence the outcome of every point number in different ways. Playing the lowest house edge bets limits your risk so I am not going to advise against it but once you are experienced enough to know how, specifically you, control the dice in the actual casino you will find you are better off placing the best numbers unless by coincidence they are your point.
The blackjack percentages are negating pushes. Just as the craps percentages negate each toss of the dice that doesnt decide your bet. Have you factored into your win rate per unit of your time how long it is going to take to get the dice again or the length of time it takes to decide a point win or lose. Factoring these into the equation is an important consideration. Just as a counter wants to play head to head with the dealer or have a machine shuffle the cards rather than a dealer shuffle so he gets more hands in per hour so are the factors that must be considered into win rate per unit time at the craps table.
I am not going to explain again how flawed averaging your missing seven frequency across all other numbers is. But when you do average it, the average for all points at ssr 6.5 is 43% win rate for your point on average. I never said you would not have an advantage. I said you were guessing that a favorable change to half of what determines the odds would give you an advantage. If you survive long enough at DI you will know just how wrong that is. If you do the adjustments by hand rather than hope a programmer knew what he was doing you will be able to make adjustments at the table because you will understand what you need to do to adjust.
I havent mentioned my betting strategy because it is necessary to actually have control to make money. The grind described in the article has a fair shot at treading water even if your ability is a delusion. I have seen many who either deluded themselves or never got passed the errant assumptions in the article so they couldnt turn actual ability into profit. Good luck with whatever you decide to do. You are clearly not bankrolled sufficiently for blackjack. You may not be for DI in craps. RoR is a major factor with a lower winning percentage per hand.
I would go easy on the odds until I was sure I had the skill in the casino on the tables that pay you money. You have no idea what the real odds are after your DI changes the probability of all the possible rolls and there is no way to tell for sure. The statistics he put out are meaningless. Based on a very flawed idea of the new probability distribution of the rolls produced when you influence the outcome of every point number in different ways. Playing the lowest house edge bets limits your risk so I am not going to advise against it but once you are experienced enough to know how, specifically you, control the dice in the actual casino you will find you are better off placing the best numbers unless by coincidence they are your point.