Blackjack can be a ..........

J

Jeff25

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
Bitch!

That is what im thinking after loosing, in 2 sessions, almost all the profit my partener and I made in June. It seems like we cant get ahead. We will get up around 5,6,7000 and the next thing you know were just breaking even. We have been at this for about 9 months now and played 64, on average, 4 hour sessions. We play all 8d s17 das shoes, average pen is 75%. 90% of the time we backcount. After last night's session 1 player is up $1850, the other is down $12. We are green chip players with max bets of $250 or 2*$150 and I would have thought that by this point we would be up a decent amount? I sometimes wonder why im still playing this game. Is it worth it? Probably not, but I enjoy what im doing so I will keep at it untill I reach that LONG, long run.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
wild ride.......
i've never experienced ups and downs like that, whew. but then i've never laid out two, three hundred dollar a round bets either.
but looking at this scenerio on a smaller scale, yeah thats how it can go.
standard deviation can get you way up there when you experience the positive kind of fluctuation and then standard deviation can pretty nearly wipe those gains out when the 'Bull market correction' hits. and on a session basis it tends to go that way. can't count how many times i've started out a session way up only to finish out the session winning around twenty bucks or so..... pretty much near the expected value. it can be disappointing but the reality is you truly just have a given expectation and sometimes that can be dashed all to hell. it can be mind boggling and frustrating.
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
I don't know how or why, but the variance gods have been on my side. I've been playing about once a week for a year now, and I've only had 2 net losing sessions.
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
8 deck games are going to have a smaller edge, on average. That could be a contributing factor. You could move your wong-in point back a little, or your wong-out point up. That would help the swings.
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
21forme said:
I don't know how or why, but the variance gods have been on my side. I've been playing about once a week for a year now, and I've only had 2 net losing sessions.
Click to expand...
What causes you to end a session? Just curious.
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Canceler said:
What causes you to end a session? Just curious.
Click to expand...
I define the "session" as the entire outing, which for me usually runs from mid to late afternoon until the following morning. What ends it is it's time to go home and get to my real job. Of course, there have been times when I've been down at some point during play, and come back later in the day.

To answer your question, one of several things ends my current play (part of the "session"):
Time for food
Tired and need a break
Time for bed
I sense heat and time to move elsewhere
Place is too crowded (or too empty, as may be the case early morning) and it's difficult to backcount.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Jeff25 said:
That is what im thinking after loosing, in 2 sessions, almost all the profit my partener and I made in June. It seems like we cant get ahead. We will get up around 5,6,7000 and the next thing you know were just breaking even. We have been at this for about 9 months now and played 64, on average, 4 hour sessions. We play all 8d s17 das shoes, average pen is 75%. 90% of the time we backcount. After last night's session 1 player is up $1850, the other is down $12. We are green chip players with max bets of $250 or 2*$150 and I would have thought that by this point we would be up a decent amount? I sometimes wonder why im still playing this game. Is it worth it? Probably not, but I enjoy what im doing so I will keep at it untill I reach that LONG, long run.
Click to expand...
Here's my first 5 or 6 questions lol.

Do u and ur partner play at the same table ever?

What bankroll are u playing to?

Are u in AC? If not surely there are better games available. If u r, I didn't know they allow mid-shoe entry in $25 min games.

If u r backcounting 90% of ur games are u really spreading 1-10 in them with a $25 min?

Does ur unit change if u aren't back-counting?

Anyway good luck - u ever figure out where u would expect to be given what u do?
 
J

Jeff25

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
Kasi said:
Here's my first 5 or 6 questions lol.

Do u and ur partner play at the same table ever?

What bankroll are u playing to?

Are u in AC? If not surely there are better games available. If u r, I didn't know they allow mid-shoe entry in $25 min games.

If u r backcounting 90% of ur games are u really spreading 1-10 in them with a $25 min?

Does ur unit change if u aren't back-counting?

Anyway good luck - u ever figure out where u would expect to be given what u do?
Click to expand...
We only play at the same table if the casion is busy and there are two spots seperated by ploppies. We play as if it was one player playing two hands.

18k BR. One problem is that I have to pay bills from my blackjack account so I cant reinvest all my winnings.

We generate different spreads for different games using CXCV. When backcounting I like to use 1-4.

Yes our unit is higher when backcounting.

No, I dont play in AC. I play in Ontario. All games are indenticle, 8d s17 das.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
Ooh, if you have to use the bankroll to pay all your bills, I can imagine how that, combined with bad luck, could easily leave you treading water over a multimonth period.
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
21forme said:
I don't know how or why, but the variance gods have been on my side. I've been playing about once a week for a year now, and I've only had 2 net losing sessions.
Click to expand...
I hate to report to those of you in awe of play record, but I had major every-hand-that-you-should-have-won-in-a-high-count-you-lost session yesterday. Back to reality :mad:
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
My fault?

21forme said:
I hate to report to those of you in awe of play record, but I had major every-hand-that-you-should-have-won-in-a-high-count-you-lost session yesterday. Back to reality :mad:
Click to expand...
Ah, the old Bull Market Correction. I hope I didn't jinx you with the comment I made in another thread!
 
M

MEDITANK

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
Jeff25 said:
Bitch!

That is what im thinking after loosing, in 2 sessions, almost all the profit my partener and I made in June. It seems like we cant get ahead. We will get up around 5,6,7000 and the next thing you know were just breaking even. We have been at this for about 9 months now and played 64, on average, 4 hour sessions. We play all 8d s17 das shoes, average pen is 75%. 90% of the time we backcount. After last night's session 1 player is up $1850, the other is down $12. We are green chip players with max bets of $250 or 2*$150 and I would have thought that by this point we would be up a decent amount? I sometimes wonder why im still playing this game. Is it worth it? Probably not, but I enjoy what im doing so I will keep at it untill I reach that LONG, long run.
Click to expand...
I guess that is why I just stick to what I know better: daytrading. Much easier, no eye in the sky, no idiotic rules, no neteller. but the taxes stink.
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
Canceler said:
Ah, the old Bull Market Correction. I hope I didn't jinx you with the comment I made in another thread!
Click to expand...
Not sure which comment you mean.

On another note - I had the opportunity to do a low EV stupid play. I did a double for less ($5 on a $25 bet) on a hard 12 with a dealer 2 showing. It was hard to keep a straight face when the dealer announced it to the pit. Count was in low negative territory at the time so I figured the opportunity was perfect. Naturally, I won the hand!
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
21forme said:
Not sure which comment you mean.
Click to expand...
That would be this one:
Canceler said:
Some time ago we had a thread where we were telling about the most consecutive winning and losing sessions we had. Sagefr0g had strung together some huge amount of winning sessions. At the time I said that while you're never "due" for anything, I didn't think he could escape negative variance forever. That seemed paradoxical then, and it still does.

While I've not been following Mr. fr0g's exploits closely, I understand he was finally forced to grab the wrong end of the variance stick.

Now, in another thread, 21forme says he's had only two losing sessions after a year of playing weekly sessions. He admits that the gods of variance have probably been smiling upon him. He does not end a session simply because he's ahead. Be interesting to see what the next year brings.
Click to expand...
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
Jeff25 said:
We only play at the same table if the casion is busy and there are two spots seperated by ploppies. We play as if it was one player playing two hands.

18k BR. One problem is that I have to pay bills from my blackjack account so I cant reinvest all my winnings.

We generate different spreads for different games using CXCV. When backcounting I like to use 1-4.

Yes our unit is higher when backcounting.

No, I dont play in AC. I play in Ontario. All games are indenticle, 8d s17 das.
Click to expand...
All good answers so I got nothing more to say!

How do u bet differently on all ur spreads when playing together at same table compared to playing at different tables? Just something I'm curious about in general - no big deal.

If u r unsatisfied, I'd re-examine every aspect of your betting schemes with an eye to recording results of each session how u played, etc and whether ur results are somewhat as expected.

I guess Ontario lets u enter Mid-shoe when u back-count?
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#18
#18
Canceler said:
That would be this one:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Canceler
Some time ago we had a thread where we were telling about the most consecutive winning and losing sessions we had. Sagefr0g had strung together some huge amount of winning sessions. At the time I said that while you're never "due" for anything, I didn't think he could escape negative variance forever. That seemed paradoxical then, and it still does.

While I've not been following Mr. fr0g's exploits closely, I understand he was finally forced to grab the wrong end of the variance stick.

Now, in another thread, 21forme says he's had only two losing sessions after a year of playing weekly sessions. He admits that the gods of variance have probably been smiling upon him. He does not end a session simply because he's ahead. Be interesting to see what the next year brings.
Click to expand...
yup i got the short end of the variance stick and what is worse i got it when i just happended to muster the courage and the bankroll where with all to change my spread from 1:8 to 1:10. i'd also determined to get in as much play as possible instead of taking my customary stop win exit at about a standard deviation above my expectation for the time that i put in. i ended up losing about one seventh of my total bankroll.
thats when i took a blackjack sabbatical, went back to the drawing board. came up with the realization that for me orthodox counting, full steam ahead advantage play wasn't for me. thats where i came up with the decision to cut way back on my play action and the decision to just use this fuzzy count method i came up with along with the old 1:8 spread but a steeper ramp against the 'TC's' as i percieve them. also adopted a much more agressive wong out 'point'.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top