no.enjoy.b said:this weekend i just meet a csm , can this machine be beaten? (6decks)
thanks
Sure it can. All you need is a really big bat or hammerenjoy.b said:This weekend I just meet a CSM , can this machine be beaten? (6Decks)
thanks
yeah, i've wondered about that sort of thing as well. i don't know if QFIT's cvdata could sim that or not.daddybo said:I've often wondered would it not be possible to keep a running count of CSMs and use that information for betting purposes. The theory being if, say the count went really high to the plus side.. Which would indicate you have been seeing an abnormal amount of small cards. Would it not make sense at some point you would start seeing the big cards and the count would head back toward zero.
I've tinkered with this on electronic games where I know the number of decks.. but I don't know when it shuffles. It seems to be somewhat effective.
Having said that, I have not done any math to prove it one way or the other. Just seems like there would be some probable advantage to it...
I'd like to hear some thoughts on it..
it could easily be simmed with CVData - a 6 deck game 5.5 to 5 decks cut off. waste of time if your only tactic is card counting.sagefr0g said:yeah, i've wondered about that sort of thing as well. i don't know if QFIT's cvdata could sim that or not.
or take it a step further like system trader is saying some times the dealer lets a number of cards build up in the discard tray before putting them back in the machine.
also i wonder how situational betting would work used in conjunction with the leaning you described.:whip:
Yes, some casinos fill up a discard tray before putting the cards back in the CSM. However the discard tray is usually only one to one-and-a-half decks in size, meaning the penetration is so low, I doubt counting would have any effect. You MIGHT be able to shave a few hundredths off the house edge, though. But is it worth the effort?sagefr0g said:or take it a step further like system trader is saying some times the dealer lets a number of cards build up in the discard tray before putting them back in the machine.
I get what you guys are saying... I'm thinking more of the big picture. Say you Count the CSM to a really high RC.. Would that not be an approximation of a possibly impending Positive Variance in the game? in other words.. bet minimum Units until a large RC then start increasing the bets. Hopefully the count will start reversing (meaning the Big Un's are coming out). If it doesn't, back off.StudiodeKadent said:Yes, some casinos fill up a discard tray before putting the cards back in the CSM. However the discard tray is usually only one to one-and-a-half decks in size, meaning the penetration is so low, I doubt counting would have any effect. You MIGHT be able to shave a few hundredths off the house edge, though. But is it worth the effort?
Nope. The machine shuffles after every hand so the results are independent. The previous results do not tell you anything about future results. If the Roulette ball lands on red ten times in a row, can you predict anything from that?daddybo said:Say you Count the CSM to a really high RC.. Would that not be an approximation of a possibly impending Positive Variance in the game?
If it was, people would only play on "positive" days.daddybo said:The root question is "Is it possible to predict Positive Variance?"
Sonny said:. If the Roulette ball lands on red ten times in a row, can you predict anything from that?
If it was, people would only play on "positive" days.
-Sonny-
sagefr0g said:it's this sort of stuff with csm's that we are talking about, makes you think of composition dependent plays, stuff, like k_c's software can do and some of those composition dependent plays Renzey writes about in Blackjack Bluebook II, sort of stuff.
but yeah, i guess mighty low effects one way or the other for the most part, i should suspect.
like ok, for a sim have it run against a csm 6ds17das that plays like a dealer that lets a deck & a half build up in the discard tray.daddybo said:....
yep.. I think we need a Sim.
Me too.. Although I'm still not convinced there is much advantage. But I would like to see the data.sagefr0g said:like ok, for a sim have it run against a csm 6ds7das that plays like a dealer that lets a deck & a half build up in the discard tray.
to where say you can come up with some positive true count some times, use composition dependent plays and try this situational betting stuff (per the link below) influenced by the degree of true count you have. i'd like to see a sim like that.:fish:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=134835&postcount=44
Your looking at it from a counter's perspective where penetration is very important. I'm trying to think out of the box a little. I believe if men built it, then men can beat it.MoneyPlays said:Isn't the bottom line of all this is that no matter what you do, the best game you'll possibly have with a CSM is one that involves 25% pen? And that's if they allow 1.5 decks to build up in the discard tray. I'm not seeing any advantage plays here, but what do I know? :laugh:
Hey, that's the spirit! I do have a bit of tunnel vision when it comes to advantages. We could probably all benefit from hanging around outside the box from time to time. :laugh:daddybo said:Your looking at it from a counter's perspective where penetration is very important. I'm trying to think out of the box a little. I believe if men built it, then men can beat it.
I know there are ways to beat it... just not sure you can do it in your head and/or legally.
right and probably doubtful to even get a deck and a half far as i've ever seen. just i'm curious about it, what if any advantage there might be.MoneyPlays said:Isn't the bottom line of all this is that no matter what you do, the best game you'll possibly have with a CSM is one that involves 25% pen? And that's if they allow 1.5 decks to build up in the discard tray. I'm not seeing any advantage plays here, but what do I know? :laugh: