Csm
- Thread starter enjoy.b
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MoneyPlays
Well-Known Member
no.enjoy.b said:
Depends on what you mean by "beaten". With a CSM, you are playing very close to the deck that BS was designed for, almost every hand. While counting or any advantage play won't help you, it is still possible for you to win any session you play. I've seen people buy-in for 450 and walk away with multiple black chips as a result of positive variance.
itakeyourmoney
Well-Known Member
Sure it can. All you need is a really big bat or hammerenjoy.b said:
But don't try to shuffle track with one, waste of time and energy.
daddybo
Well-Known Member
Counting CSMs a half formed thought
I've often wondered would it not be possible to keep a running count of CSMs and use that information for betting purposes. The theory being if, say the count went really high to the plus side.. Which would indicate you have been seeing an abnormal amount of small cards. Would it not make sense at some point you would start seeing the big cards and the count would head back toward zero.
I've tinkered with this on electronic games where I know the number of decks.. but I don't know when it shuffles. It seems to be somewhat effective.
Having said that, I have not done any math to prove it one way or the other. Just seems like there would be some probable advantage to it...
I'd like to hear some thoughts on it..
I've often wondered would it not be possible to keep a running count of CSMs and use that information for betting purposes. The theory being if, say the count went really high to the plus side.. Which would indicate you have been seeing an abnormal amount of small cards. Would it not make sense at some point you would start seeing the big cards and the count would head back toward zero.
I've tinkered with this on electronic games where I know the number of decks.. but I don't know when it shuffles. It seems to be somewhat effective.
Having said that, I have not done any math to prove it one way or the other. Just seems like there would be some probable advantage to it...
I'd like to hear some thoughts on it..
SystemsTrader
Well-Known Member
It's useless if they shuffle after every round but if they wait till a deck or so has been dealt then you will get the occasional positive hand to play. It would be like playing against a shoe with horrible pen.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
yeah, i've wondered about that sort of thing as well. i don't know if QFIT's cvdata could sim that or not.daddybo said:
or take it a step further like system trader is saying some times the dealer lets a number of cards build up in the discard tray before putting them back in the machine.
also i wonder how situational betting would work used in conjunction with the leaning you described.
:whip:it could easily be simmed with CVData - a 6 deck game 5.5 to 5 decks cut off. waste of time if your only tactic is card counting.sagefr0g said:yeah, i've wondered about that sort of thing as well. i don't know if QFIT's cvdata could sim that or not.
or take it a step further like system trader is saying some times the dealer lets a number of cards build up in the discard tray before putting them back in the machine.
also i wonder how situational betting would work used in conjunction with the leaning you described.
StudiodeKadent
Well-Known Member
Yes, some casinos fill up a discard tray before putting the cards back in the CSM. However the discard tray is usually only one to one-and-a-half decks in size, meaning the penetration is so low, I doubt counting would have any effect. You MIGHT be able to shave a few hundredths off the house edge, though. But is it worth the effort?sagefr0g said:
daddybo
Well-Known Member
Positive Variance
It's really no different than winning/losing in a high positive TC standard game.
The root question is "Is it possible to predict Positive Variance?"
If you could come up with a way... (and it would probably involve counting plus real time statistical analysis) then I can't imagine getting heat while playing CSM even if your spreading 50-1. (for a while anyway)
yep.. I think we need a Sim.
I get what you guys are saying... I'm thinking more of the big picture. Say you Count the CSM to a really high RC.. Would that not be an approximation of a possibly impending Positive Variance in the game? in other words.. bet minimum Units until a large RC then start increasing the bets. Hopefully the count will start reversing (meaning the Big Un's are coming out). If it doesn't, back off.StudiodeKadent said:
It's really no different than winning/losing in a high positive TC standard game.
The root question is "Is it possible to predict Positive Variance?"
If you could come up with a way... (and it would probably involve counting plus real time statistical analysis) then I can't imagine getting heat while playing CSM even if your spreading 50-1. (for a while anyway)
yep.. I think we need a Sim.
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sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
it's this sort of stuff with csm's that we are talking about, makes you think of composition dependent plays, stuff, like k_c's software can do and some of those composition dependent plays Renzey writes about in Blackjack Bluebook II, sort of stuff.
but yeah, i guess mighty low effects one way or the other for the most part, i should suspect.
but yeah, i guess mighty low effects one way or the other for the most part, i should suspect.
Sonny
Well-Known Member
Nope. The machine shuffles after every hand so the results are independent. The previous results do not tell you anything about future results. If the Roulette ball lands on red ten times in a row, can you predict anything from that?daddybo said:
If it was, people would only play on "positive" days.daddybo said:
-Sonny-
daddybo
Well-Known Member
Roulette!
Well, I can predict that there is a 1 in 38 (american) chance it will do it again.
I do understand what your saying... but I'm just not convinced there is not some obscure way to make an educated guess as to variance. Like from life experience when you have 20 winning sessions in a row.. you know soon you'll have a loser... and probably several. Or at least I do.
Sonny said:. If the Roulette ball lands on red ten times in a row, can you predict anything from that?
If it was, people would only play on "positive" days.
-Sonny-
Well, I can predict that there is a 1 in 38 (american) chance it will do it again.
I do understand what your saying... but I'm just not convinced there is not some obscure way to make an educated guess as to variance. Like from life experience when you have 20 winning sessions in a row.. you know soon you'll have a loser... and probably several. Or at least I do.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
like ok, for a sim have it run against a csm 6ds17das that plays like a dealer that lets a deck & a half build up in the discard tray.daddybo said:
to where say you can come up with some positive true count some times, use composition dependent plays and try this situational betting stuff (per the link below) influenced by the degree of true count you have. i'd like to see a sim like that.:fish:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=134835&postcount=44
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MoneyPlays
Well-Known Member
Just Bad Pen
Isn't the bottom line of all this is that no matter what you do, the best game you'll possibly have with a CSM is one that involves 25% pen? And that's if they allow 1.5 decks to build up in the discard tray. I'm not seeing any advantage plays here, but what do I know? :laugh:
Isn't the bottom line of all this is that no matter what you do, the best game you'll possibly have with a CSM is one that involves 25% pen? And that's if they allow 1.5 decks to build up in the discard tray. I'm not seeing any advantage plays here, but what do I know? :laugh:
daddybo
Well-Known Member
me neither
I know there are ways to beat it... just not sure you can do it in your head and/or legally.
Your looking at it from a counter's perspective where penetration is very important. I'm trying to think out of the box a little. I believe if men built it, then men can beat it.MoneyPlays said:
I know there are ways to beat it... just not sure you can do it in your head and/or legally.
MoneyPlays
Well-Known Member
More Power to You
Good luck to you.
Hey, that's the spirit! I do have a bit of tunnel vision when it comes to advantages. We could probably all benefit from hanging around outside the box from time to time. :laugh:daddybo said:
Good luck to you.