Does anyone run as bad as me?

throwaway · May 9, 2011

I am a somewhat regular poster on these forums, but I am using a new account because I don't feel like discussing with my friends just yet.

To sum things up, I have been losing consistently for 10 months straight. I finished 2010 down 138 times my max bet, and at one point I was down 173 max bets.

My winning streaks always seem to be modest and close to my hourly expected rate. But when I lose I lose ten times as fast as I should be winning. I once lost 100 max bets in 30 hours of play (across a few sessions).

On every trip but one last year I started with a >25 max bet downswing right off the bat. Sometimes I managed to claw my way back to up around even, and other times I didn't.

This year I started by winning 37 max bets but on my last trip I gave it all back and more.

I don't know how to describe it other than I never pull the card I need while the dealer always pulls the card he needs. We have all experienced this in one shoe or even for a few sessions, but I cannot even comprehend how it can last for this long. How many lifetimes do I have to play before things even out? Almost every single session is like a nightmare. Once I start raising my bet I lose almost every hand.

Just for fun I kept track of how many blackjacks I was getting in the last three sessions vs the dealer, and these were the results: 6 to 33, 8 to 32, 4 to 22. This is while playing two hands where I should be getting 2/3rds of the blackjacks!

I have had seven shoes where I was betting max for at least 3 decks and I did not win one max bet! In two of those shoes I lost every max bet (no pushes)!

I wong extremely aggressively and play with a modest spread of 1-2x8, where 8 units is my "max bet". I shudder to think what losing over 100 max bets would feel like if I were spreading 1-20. I have evaluated and re-evaluated my game. I have run all the sims, checked myself for errors and had other people check. I am really not making many mistakes if any at all. And making mistakes is almost irrelevant at this point. I could play like the biggest plop in the casino and not lose at anywhere near this rate.

Almost all of this is at a big, reputable casino, where many others have had good results.

So what is it? Have other people had similar experiences? Is my bad run even statistically possible? Am I cursed? Am I destined for something else? Any insight would be appreciated.

ohbehave · May 9, 2011

Ouch! Sorry for your bad run. How many hours did you play last year and what are the rules of your game?

tthree · May 9, 2011

It sounds like you need to have aslan change your fortune:laugh::laugh:. If you are using HILO any stronger counting system may help with the variance. Ace neutral with ace side count would likely deal with this issue the best.

Once you reach ace neutral level two counts with full ace side count benefits to BC, PE and IC you are almost at the zenith. Add a side count of sevens and your system cannt be tweeked much more. If you can handle the increase in technical ability to learn these you can eliminate a weak system as the cause.

The 30 hour nightmare contains most of what you were down. Maybe you are doing everything right and you are experiencing bad variance. I assume you are not underfunded in your sessions. That can assure a losing session.

throwaway · May 9, 2011

ohbehave said:

~400 hours and my main game was a shoe with good rules: S17 LS etc.

throwaway · May 9, 2011

tthree said:

Yes it would have been nice to skip that little downswing. That was just the perfect storm of the count going through the roof on every shoe and me losing every hand.

I wish I had been underfunded, then I could have quit this stupid game much earlier!

I do use a better count than Hi-Lo, but again I think the minor differences between counting systems is irrelevant for my case. We are talking about many standard deviations here.

Sucker · May 9, 2011

Not necessarily that far out of line. Back in the day when counting was my only skill, I once had a 27 session streak where I lost every single session. I was like you - ready to give it up; when I met Mr.Xxxx, who taught me how to BEAT the game of blackjack. (If counting cards was the only thing I knew how to do, I would get a JOB.

400 hours? I seriously doubt that it's any more than maybe 1-2 standard deviations out, but if you have a copy of Peter Griffin's book; he has a page in it with the formula where you can figure this out for yourself.

One statistic that I've heard a few times in the past, that to ME sounds about right: An expert card counter who plays 20 hours a week can expect to have a losing YEAR approximately once every 12 years (20 hrs/wk = 1000hrs). Sorry to have to paint such a sour picture for you. :sad:

My advice to you: Learn some of the more advanced techniques. There have been many threads on this site which have hinted at moves which are much stronger than straight counting. There have even been a few "how-to-do-it" posts that can get you pretty far along the road to success. Every time you can double your advantage, you'll probably QUADRUPLE you frequency of wins.

BUZZARD · May 9, 2011

Those numbers seem a bit scary... to be fair you are spreading 1-16 so 8 is hardly your 'max bet.' Regardless you are getting trounced. Are you steaming at all? I do this sometimes. I will aggressively INCREASE my BET SPREAD when I near a sessions inevitable demise OR when I have dug a hole. Now this could just as easily result in a large win (assuming fatigue is not an issue) but if your luck remains bad, as it may consistently during these times when your pushing it- you will take out large, painful chunks or your roll. When you return and play more cautiously you book a win but it wont make up for it. I would never assume this is something you are doing but you need to be honest with yourself. Are you disciplined with your spread? If not I believe you are potentially increasing your variance, be it good or bad. Always bet the same amount!! i know it is impossible but do it anyway.

But seriously- if you continue to get.. say..2 snappers for every 45 the dealer gets..or whatever you are used to.. just give up.

Canceler · May 9, 2011

Borders on voodoo, or not?

Does anyone else think it’s funny when someone suggests changing counting systems as a way to end a losing streak? Makes it sound like the cards are going to fall differently because they’re counted differently.

kewljason · May 9, 2011

Ok, I am disagree with some of the members here. I think your results, down 137 max bets or 1100 units, sound very extreme and it sounds like something is wrong. (more on that in a minute) You didn't mention how much time or hands you have played so it is a guess just how extreme these results are. Many authors and sources, use 100 max bets or 1000 units as a guideline for an adaquate BR and you have exceeded that. These are numbers I have always found to be insufficent BTW.

You are playing a shoe game with good rules, s17, LS. Asuming it's not 6-5 sound like a decent game. And you mention aggressive wonging out of negative counts. That's a winner. If penetration, which you also didn't mention is decent you should be able to easy beat this game with a 1 - 2x8 spread. I am assuming penetration must be pretty good because with lousy penetration you wouldn't get many max bet opportunities and you wouldn't have such extreme losses.

To tthree: good god man, he is down 1100 units. You think a level 2 count would make any significant difference? Yeah if he was using a level 2 count he would be ahead 800 units now. :laugh: There is a time and place for discussions of the merits of different level counts and this is not it. A different count would make NO significant difference in these results, assiming he is doing everything right (which is an assumption I am not ready to make)

To Sucker: yes, with 1000 hours a year played at a mediocre game, a losing year is possible. I don't know what the exact possiblity is. 1 in 12 or 8%. Ok I'll buy that. sounds reasonable. But there is a difference between having a losing year over 1000 hours and being down 137 max bets or 1100 units. chances of being down such a significant amount are much less than 8% or 1 in 12.

Back to OP: I am assuming you are not doing something drastically wrong like raising your wager significantly while still playing a negative game, when I make these comments.

Your comparision of dealer blackjacks to your own, which sounds extreme, but is really a very small sample size. too small to draw any definate conclusions. But just that comparison leads me to believe you may suspect cheating. I am not a big believer that cheating happens very often in todays environment. Casinos have too much to lose. But without knowing the details, I can not illiminate the possibility. Can you tell us if this is an indian casino or who might regulate it?

My first guess is something is wrong. Dealer cheating? Dealing seconds to get so many blackjacks, while you get few. (especially in high counts vs large bets)

Maybe not all the cards are in the deck.

maybe you are doing something drastically wrong, like raising bet too early while still at a disadvantage.

But something doesn't sound right to me. :sad:

throwaway · May 9, 2011

Sucker said:

Thanks for this. This is exactly the kind of stat I was looking for.

Everything seems to point towards finding something better to do. I started with very low expectations, but even still it does not seem worth it anymore. I feel sorry for some of the other novices I have met along the way who are expecting to show up, find a high count, and start winning money just like in the movies.

I have started dabbling in some more advanced techniques but there isn't much opportunity where I play. I'm not sure I want to invest the time at this point to learn more and find better opportunities.

I actually had two great cutting opportunities recently. It's very rare that the shuffle where I play produces anything that looks really good AND that I have the cut card in hand, but I did these two times and guess what happened? The dealer fumbled the shoe and spilled the cards everywhere both times forcing a reshuffle. And this isn't something that happens often (or ever!) where I play. To my credit I wasn't in the least bit surprised, however.

throwaway · May 9, 2011

BUZZARD said:

Yes, I am steaming a lot! But as I learned from observing a very good player I met early on, I take it out on everything but my betting and playing decisions

For example I will punch the table, stand up and kick my chair, and often berate the dealer endlessly.

I have found that last base is the best seat for berating the dealer, because you get to curse him for dealing you a stiff on your double down and then for not busting on 16 without any interruptions from other people playing out their hands.

throwaway · May 9, 2011

kewljason said:

Yes, when things get this bad I have to start questioning absolutely everything. I just couldn't find any indications of cheating. The new cards are checking face up, and the dealer is not pulling the second card out of the shoe every time that I am watching.

Again, I keep running sims, and checking and double checking my play to make sure I am not making any mistakes and I just can't find anything. Which is why I am just leaning towards this not being my destiny. How else can I explain it? Most famous gamblers you hear about had a really good run at some point to get where they are or just stay alive, and that just doesn't seem to be in the cards for me.

Also about many sources claiming 100 max bets is a good bank roll: This is just blatantly wrong. I have a good mathematical background and I knew this from the beginning, which is why I started with 250 max bets. For a full time professional I would honestly not go with anything less than 400 max bets.

kewljason · May 9, 2011

throwaway said:

I think you just gave away your other posting identity, as you have posted those thoughts before.

I think 400 max bets is extreme. I currently play with just over 200 max bets and I am generally thought of conservative in this regard. 100 will even work as long as you resize down constantly, but I am unwilling to do that very frequently. It is just hard and frustration to try to make up losses with a reduced spread and/or max bet. I have never had to resize downward, but with 200 max bets, I probably would consider doing so somewhere about 25% loss of BR. 200 max bets and willing to resize at 25% loss puts me reasonably close to playing zero RoR.

I am in a good place right now as I spend far less than my EV per year, so my BR should hopefully continue to grow. And since I am at a level that I have no desire at this time to go above for heat and longevity reasons, as my BR grows my RoR will fall even closer to zero.

How close to zero RoR can we go?

Midwestern · May 9, 2011

blackjack attack talks about the probability of being ahead after N hands.
I dont have it in front of me, but i think you were only 90% probability of being ahead 1$ after 1000 hours of play.

It seems perfectly reasonable that you might be falling within that 10% 'not ahead' category.

I think you have to roll with the punches on this one. If you really care about AP as a hobby and a money-making activity, then absorb the loss, resize your bet ramp to fit your new, smaller BR, and then grind it out. You experienced bad variance and there's nothing you can do about it other than continue to play correctly. If you don't care for this hobby anymore, that's ok! no one is forcing you to play... remember that. The BJ tables will always be there waiting for you.....

the best an AP can do is play with proper discipline. Variance will have its way, but if you follow the formula you statistically do alright.

Midwestern · May 9, 2011

kewljason said:

i agree with KJ,
if you have 400 max bets as your BR, then you are playing too small stakes. You can make your BJ game more financially significant by multiplying your betramp x4.

Now that your BR has taken a bit hit though, i would definitely resize down and just "start over" though....

kewljason · May 10, 2011

Midwestern said:

There is a big difference between not being ahead after 1000 hour and being several SD behind. Whether you use 10 percent probability of being behind after 1000 hours or the number that sucker used, 8 percent, those number are for being behind. Being behind several SD's is a whole other worse senerio. The probability of that is much much less. Now maybe the OP is doing everything right and unfortunately falls into that small 1 or 2 percent probability, but I doubt it. (someone has to make up that negative 1 or 2 percent)

tthree · May 10, 2011

Sorry if my input seemed a bit ridiculous. When I read his post max bet registered in my brain as units so I didnt think it seemed to out of line.

My thoughts were he is making mistakes, being cheated or experiencing extreme variance. I chose to address the variance issue because I have a small BR and that is a prime consideration for me.

Variance can be minimized with the proper counting system and number of hands being played. High PE can turn losers into winners. The proper use of LS can save lots of money(that was my weakness that cost me a lot on my last bad swing). Finally most importantly choosing and playable game.

If I had noticed my reading comprehension error which I apparently made over and over once I made it. I might still have offered the same 2 cents because that was the choice of the three possibilities that I felt strong about my knowledge given my bankroll concerns.

In extreme situations like this the answer is often a combination of things. Cheating seems likely. Do you play in more than 1 store? If you do has your bad fortune shown a correlation to where you are playing?

Midwestern · May 10, 2011

kewljason said:

i know there's a difference, but i was merely trying to point out that if there's a 10% chance of just being BEHIND 1$, then the OP being several SD down also falls into this category (players who play 1000 hours and are still down).:sad:

i'm basically just saying that 1 out of 10 players are not break even over a large sample of hands, even if they play properly. (and if we take OP by his word, we assume OP is playing a perfect game).

OP, i sympathize with you for being several SD behind, but i guess you have to realize the fact that busting out while doing all the right moves is statistically possible. I'm not sure what other advice the community can provide other than "you might be falling into that negative 1-2 percent"

Accepting a 2% ROR in your bankroll is part of the game, and busting out, although unlikely, does happen!

given infinity# hands, even a player with a 0.0001% ROR will bust out. the only difference is that it may not happen in a player's lifetime.

Now the good part is that luck favors the bold.

you still have a workable BR and hopefully (if you are still interested in BJ as a hobby) you can regroup, recalculate your bet ramp, and start to build back the BR to its former glory. :grin:

tthree · May 10, 2011

That .0001% can happen at anytime. It is just not likely....
The same idea we try to wake the martingalers up to before they have to pay for the lesson.

Renzey · May 11, 2011

It Simply has to be the Cards!

Even a normal ploppy (-1.5% EV) would be virtually unable to lose that much over that period of time. You are surely several standard deviations to the left. That is, unless, you're being cheated.

I have had two streaks where I lost roughly 100 max bets over the course of a few hundred hours each. It does sour your interest. Those whom its never happened to will not relate.

Does anyone run as bad as me?

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