Double Deck 4-1-8 Betting?

Doofus

Well-Known Member
#1
I've been giving some thought recently about establishing a new betting pattern for double deck that may allow me to use my players club card in some casinos. Since the count rises and falls so quickly in DD, how about a spread of 4 from the top of the shoe, dropping to 1 unit if the count immediately goes negative (and flat betting 1 unit to the end of the deck), on the other hand, staying at 4 and eventually jumping to 8 if the count goes positive. What do you slide rule jockeys think about this?
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#2
I start at two,drop to one if neg,go up if positive and let my bets ride if I win and the count stays good. I play at one of the sweatiest places in the universe(according to some0 and get next to no heat.I think you get less heat letting you wins ride than ramping from 4 to 6 then 8.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#3
That would work well for camo but it will increase your risk quite a bit. There was an article in Snyder's magazine about that technique:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/card_counting_camouflage_up_and_down_betting.htm

Wong also mentions it in Blackjack Secrets. There are other (cheaper) forms of camo, but this will work if you need to lay down something pretty heavy. The general rule is this: Anything that makes your play look less like card counting makes your play less like card counting. Schlesinger and Anderson mention some very cheap ways to disguise your play that I would suggest before something drastic like this, but the "Up & Down" technique is sometimes a good way to get the pit off your back for a while in pitch games. If you start out with this then you may be able to get some breathing room long enough to revert back to more aggressive play when their backs are turned. Like with any camo move it should be used sparingly and mainly in emergencies.

-Sonny-
 

MartyAce

Well-Known Member
#4
From the math side of things it doesn't look like a sound idea.

Let's say you are doing the exact thing you are talking about. Right off the bat of the shoe you put 4 units out. Lets assume your unit is $10 bucks just for example. Let's say in the most optimal conditions in a 2D (S17, DAS, etc) the house edge is .2%.

Every time you are placing your 4 unit bet ($40) you have an expected loss of 40 x .002 = .08 so for every time you place this bet you will lose 8 cents. Not really that big of a deal. However, on the average the count will fluctuate right around 0. Let's say that in an hour of play you play 100 hands of your 4 unit bet at a negative expectation. You are now giving up $8 an hour and to someone with a unit of $10 dollars thats a significant portion. (100 hands at around 0 is a rough estimate)

What happens if the running count is around +1 or -1 or just at 0? Do you keep your same bet? I don't have my frequency table with me, but I think you will find you are staying at your 4 unit bet very often and will most likely have a negative expectation from your system.

Of course if it goes negative you drop it, and if it goes positive you raise, but I don't think you should go immediately to 8 units if it goes positive. If the true count increases to +2 or +3 a maximum bet (8 units) will have your bankroll swinging so much that you will see some very high days and very low days, and from experience the low days really eat you up especially if you do not have discipline.

I think its important to play your best game and not give up any advantages such as the one you are considering. Too many people believe that everyone is on to them and that they have to use all these elaborate betting schemes or 'donkey' plays that they are giving up real money that hurts their bottom line.

Play the game you know and play it to its fullest, do not give the house any advantage, for they give you none. If you want to build up comps then work on rat holing chips over time. Your losses will look bigger and your wins smaller. Also if you are able, maintain short sessions or pay attention to when the pit changes shifts and work around that time.

EDIT: Seeing that a few people replied I also agree with the letting it ride mentality. This is a fantastic cover play because gamblers will push their luck all the time. Another good move is if you end a show at your 8 unit bet, maybe throw out a 3-5 unit bet on the first hand of the next shoe, if the count is negative or zero drop to one unit. I find personally that just saying things like "I'm going to press my luck here." or talk about how the last shoe was "Lucky". But most of all I do not think you should put yourself at such a risk with your 4 unit bet all the time from the start.

I hope I have answered your question.
 
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EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#5
If you're talking about ALWAYS betting a lot off the top, then the cost increases with the fewer decks you have.

What you propose sounds intuitively expensive for double or single deck. It's not as expensive, relatively in shoe games, but by then, you're hopefully wonging in or out.
 

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#6
I'm with Shad here. I would start at 2 units since either one of four possibilites (besides push) will occur. 1) You lose the first hand, you're out only 2 units 2) You win the hand and count goes south. You stay with bet and you're even so far. 3) You win and count increases.Parlay to 4. You DD and win. Now you can parlay up to 8 without touching any rack money. Same with a BJ, just ride it to 2 x 3.
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#7
IMHO ;), I like the Idea of 2 units off the top. Regardless of the count, as long as I win the hand I just the leave the 2 unit bet out there until I lose. Which is often the first hand. (Depending on the # of players the count rarely gets high enough to justify me spreading to 2 hands on the Second round. Nevertheless it does happen.)

If I was to lose the 2 unit bet off the top. I will go back to the 2 unit bet as long as the RC is @ 0 or higher.

I cant tell you what exactly this is costing me in EV, but it does appear to be somewhat costly.

The Trick is, not to make your betting patterns look to mechanical and never to hesitate to long ,to many times, when making them. As for myself, I actually use two differents unit size spreads.

1.(2x2) or (2.5x2.5)

2.(5x5)
 
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Doofus

Well-Known Member
#8
Very nice discussion with some good ideas. Which is exactly what I was hoping to generate. Thanks fellows.
 
#9
Are you really at a dis-adavantage at start?

Doofus said:
I've been giving some thought recently about establishing a new betting pattern for double deck that may allow me to use my players club card in some casinos. Since the count rises and falls so quickly in DD, how about a spread of 4 from the top of the shoe, dropping to 1 unit if the count immediately goes negative (and flat betting 1 unit to the end of the deck), on the other hand, staying at 4 and eventually jumping to 8 if the count goes positive. What do you slide rule jockeys think about this?


I like the idea of starting with say 4 units, as the count goes down, so does the bet, if it goes up then increase.

Who's to say that there are not a lot of 10's and A's clusterted in the first few hands. You are more likely win and the count goes down. So next time you bet say 3 units.

Or you may get a low count first hand and so stick or increase your bet.
 

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#10
eddiejenkinson said:
I like the idea of starting with say 4 units, as the count goes down, so does the bet, if it goes up then increase.

Who's to say that there are not a lot of 10's and A's clusterted in the first few hands. You are more likely win and the count goes down. So next time you bet say 3 units.

Or you may get a low count first hand and so stick or increase your bet.
I think the 4 unit bet is a bit rich. That's a lot (1/2%) of BR to have exposed "in the blind". If you consider these ramafications you would think twice. 1) The first bet of a fresh DD is without an accurate Ins. count, i.e there has to be a net of 8 n10's to equal insurance parity. That ain't gonna happen in the real world. 2) The 2 unit bet off the top can easily turn into a max/ near max bet on the 2nd hand. Just catch a DD combo on the first hand and win it and "voila!" you've got yourself a "no touch" 8 unit bet. Same with a double win split. A natural on the first hand will get you up to an automatic 5 unit, if you so choose.
Remember also that if the count does tank after the first hand, you've lost 3 unnecessary units and will probably take another three hands to have the opportunity to recoup that loss. Just something to ponder.
 
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