Doubling 9 vs. Dealer 3-6

[Jeff Dubya]

Basic strategy says to Doubling a 9 vs. Dealer 3-6. Boy oh boy that seems to me to be nothing like a GREAT way to lose money. I don't think I have ever won with that strategy.

Love to hear your thoughts.

 

[E-town-guy]

Its probably not as safe as doubling with a ten or eleven but thats why you don't double on a 9 as often. If you get a ace, 10, or 9 then you got a pretty good hand and a good chance of winning but even if you get stuck with a 2, 3, or 4 remember that when the dealer shows 3-6 you're hoping for him to bust. Basic strategy says to stand with 12-16 against a 3-6 so its not like you would have hit your hand again anyway. Someone else who knows the stats could probably confirm this but I'm guessing you would make x amount of dollars if you don't double, and if you do double x+a little bit more. Probably not a huge difference but you have to take advantage of situations where in the long run you can make a bit more money. This reminds me of the rule to hit soft 18 vs. dealers 9-A. On a couple occasions you might end up getting a 5 giving you 14, hit again and bust with a face card. Then the dealer shows his hold card and either has 17, 18 or busts. So of course you think I should've left it. And if you play with the same sort of people I do, most of the table with tell you you shouldn't have hit an 18 but if you simulate a 1,000,000 hands you'll be the one who comes out ahead, not them.

 

[Mikeaber]

Basic strategy says to Doubling a 9 vs. Dealer 3-6. Boy oh boy that seems to me to be nothing like a GREAT way to lose money. I don't think I have ever won with that strategy.

Love to hear your thoughts.

You might not win as much as with doubling with eleven, but you will in fact win more than you will win without making the double....or even if you just hit.

Keep in mind that Basic Strategy is not something cooked up in the last two weeks. It has been proven time and time again with everything from simulations to pure probability studies.

Refusing to follow it without more behind the decision than "it just don't seem right" must be done at your own risk...but then following it is also done at your own risk too <LOL>

If you are counting and the count is negative, you might not want to double, but that is a decision that is not "it just don't seem right!"

 

[Jeff Dubya]

Mike A...

You, of course, are 100% correct. And thanks for that reminder.

I am being so strict with my play right now that even thinking it's a crappy play (which of late, it has been) I would still do it.

BTW, my record continues to be better than average. I played $100 into $275 on Saturday. Went north to Spokane, WA on Sunday. Brought a larger chunk of the roll. Played $100 on the $25 table, and lordy that went fast. Then went to the $5 table and played another $100 down to $5. Eventually ramped that back up to $205 so came out ahead (barely.)

Spokane was a trade show. My wife had to drive back up on Monday for some classes, and I decided I liked the casino enough to go back with her. I brought $500, and unfortunately stopped at Nordstrom first, and ended up buying shoes like a sorority girl. I bought 3 pair, and had $90 left. Then I went to the casino and again, lost all but $5. I swear to god I hung on by a thread for over an hour and finally my luck got better. Made it to $550, before I bet $25, doubled 9 vs dealer 3 and lost, after which I got up and walked away.

Gives "daddy needs a new pair of shoes" new meaning, I suppose. That was fun.

Tonight, I took 100 and got creamed, lost down to $25, then played it back to $150. So... I'm having fun and I'm a happy dude.

Scrapping away...

 

[Mikeaber]

Playing BS....you are not doing badly at all. It seems to go that way for me too. For some strange reason that I haven't analyzed (???) I seem to go down pretty quickly before the clutch stops slipping and begin to recover. It's quite a treat to get ahead right from the get-go and not have to fight uphill all the time.

The game I'll be playing next week is Double Deck, $5 minimum, double 8/9/10/11 only, Split Aces once and hit soft 17 (if I remember correctly.) The other rules are the same as most 6-deck shoe games. I've won and I've lost at that table. When variance gets too wild, I leave that Indian casino and go up the road a few miles to another that offers $5 minimums on a 6-deck game but one that stands on soft 17s and allows double on anything and resplit of Aces.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Manray I come from the financial field and one of the biggest reasons people don't make money with their portfolio is because they can't stick to their system when they hit a losing streak! They start tweaking it when they are losing even though they have a positive expectation system. I have also been in their shoes and didn't start making money until I stuck with my system.
Blackjack is no different. You must stick with the positive expectancy system regardless. I know its difficult when you keep losing for example on 16v.10 or DD 9v.3-6. You must become an automaton when playing blackjack and leave the decisions for the poker table. Read Peter Griffin's Theory of Blackjack for the math behind the game which will give you more confidence. I also suggest if you haven't already search through the following websites which will help you understand why you make those difficult decisions:
http://www.bjmath.com (Archive copy)
http://www.wizardofodds.com

 

[Jeff Dubya]

Manray I come from the financial field and one of the biggest reasons people don't make money with their portfolio is because they can't stick to their system when they hit a losing streak!

I can also see where the bankroll size comes into play here as well.

For example, until I recently increased my bankroll, playing $5 on $50, I wouold have been done and out in about 15 minutes last night. BUT, since I was playing $100, I had the potential to absorb my losses (although in my head if I got down to $25 I planned on getting up and walking away) and battle my way back.

Systems or Mike, do you remember the common calculation to determine bankroll size? As in - how much one should bring to the table?

 

[Mikeaber]

When playing BS strictly, I like to take 40x my average bet. I've played on 20x, but that is rather skimpy if you wish to play for an extended time.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

I know this question now brings my whole thread off-topic, but understanding the need for consistency of play, under what circumstances would you increase your bet?

For example, if I use your calculation, I would bring $200 if I wanted to play $5 tables. So, I bet the minimum $5 with the only exception being when I split and/or double. At what point in my game do I up my standard bet to $10? When I increase to $400?

That seems like a long grind.

Right now my betting strategy is erratic. I will play consistant and then go through some small streaks where I might drop 25 or 50 out there just to give things a try. And keep in mind, I don't count (yet) so this really is gambling, now isn't it? I never increase my bet when I am losing, only when I am winning. AND, if I step up my bet, I do not decrease until I lose.

I have been having some basic conversations with other players about progressive betting strategies, but definitely do not have enough information to base a "stradegy" on yet. So Mike, keep stalking me and give me your two cents...

 

[Mikeaber]

I know this question now brings my whole thread off-topic, but understanding the need for consistency of play, under what circumstances would you increase your bet?

For example, if I use your calculation, I would bring $200 if I wanted to play $5 tables. So, I bet the minimum $5 with the only exception being when I split and/or double. At what point in my game do I up my standard bet to $10? When I increase to $400?

That seems like a long grind.

Right now my betting strategy is erratic. I will play consistant and then go through some small streaks where I might drop 25 or 50 out there just to give things a try. And keep in mind, I don't count (yet) so this really is gambling, now isn't it? I never increase my bet when I am losing, only when I am winning. AND, if I step up my bet, I do not decrease until I lose.

I have been having some basic conversations with other players about progressive betting strategies, but definitely do not have enough information to base a "stradegy" on yet. So Mike, keep stalking me and give me your two cents...

You probably do not want my $.02 Manray....nor do many others on this forum <smile. You see, I believe that there is no legitimate reason for increasing your bets if you are NOT counting. PERIOD. To increase those bets with no reason is unfounded. You might think that because a lot of Faces have fallen (or that they haven't fallen) is good reason to think that they will fall. But that's basing a decision on something that has happened in the past and is no real indication of what is going to happen in the future. That is the precise reason that streak betting cannot work any better than flat betting.

Take for example....you are 2/3s of the way through a 6-deck shoe and you happen to notice that virtually nothing but low cards have shown up for maybe three rounds of hands. Is that a good reason to increase your bet because "it is time" for a lot of face cards to hit? Not necessarily. What you might not have noticed was that in the first 2/3s of the shoe, there were 3 times as many faces falling as low cards. You would be facing the rest of the undealt deck being low cards and putting more money out would only expose you to greater losses!

Unless you know the complete composition of the deck (as a counter does know) then nothing that happens in the game can give you any reliable indication as to when to raise your bets or when to lower them.

This same logic applies to streak betting. Just becasue the laws of average tell us that the player wins 48% of the hands and the dealer 52%, it does not mean that because you've lost 3 in a row you should put out 5 times your minimum bet because it is "your time to win." It doesn't work that way.

To make sound decisions in Blackjack that involve deviating from your flat bet, you HAVE to know for sure what remaining deck consists of before you can truely have any advantage. Without an advantage, you have no reason to deviate from flat betting.

You are going to get countless rebuttals from this statement ManRay, but I might point you to the Wizzard of Odds who issued a challenge....$2,000 against $20,000 that excluding counting, no system can beat the odds and the odds are projected using the house advantage. He was actually taken up on that challenge. The taker threw in the towel after his failsafe progression was so far behind after a million hands or so that there was no chance of catching up.

You can have fun with streak betting but it in the long run will cost you more than it will payoff! More by the amount of the house edge! But it can be more exciting <LOL>

When I first started playing Blackjack, I read on a forum a statement made by an advantage player. It basically stated that there are no shortcuts to beating blackjack. There is only one way and that way is by becoming skilled at counting cards.

I thought that a pompus statement at the time. However, the more I studied the game and the more I played it, it became obvious to me that the statement was true.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

But what about greed?

Seriously, it's an understandble argument. So, playing by your strategy I need to build up my roll and run $10 bets or grind it out until I learn to count.

 

[Mikeaber]

Well, that's the way I "learned" and it's served me well enough. I've tried "card watching" and it can be okay with single deck or double deck but I've had no luck at all using it on 6-deck. I've played many of the "progressions" and haven't found one yet that worked for my style of play.

I sit down for not the hour or two session most people go for. I play for entire shifts, usually at the same table. Most of the folks I know who favor progressions will leave if they lose three or four hands in a row and will leave after getting ahead by a few units. That doesn't work for me. I'm not going to drive 3.5 hours, pay for a hotel room and all my meals and play for an hour or so.

 

[tedloc]

Double

If you check a dealer probablity charts for a multi-deck,DAS, Hit soft 17,late surrender you will see that the dealer will bust approx 40% of the time with 3-6 on average. That means you will win 40 out of a hundred even if you stay. I guess they figure that, out of the 60 hands the dealer makes, you should win at least 11 of them to be above 50%

 

[SystemsTrader]

Manray I must agree with Mike as he has given you excellent advice. Never ever increase your bet unless you have the edge. If you don't know what your edge is than you don't have one. My advice would be to just flat bet at minimum tables until you are very proficient at basic. Once you start counting the game will become a whole different world for you. You will see the crazy betting people do at the table when you know they have no edge or chicken out on doubles or splits with extremely high counts.

To become very good at any craft requires tons of practise and ultimitely a passion for what you are doing. And like any venture you must pass through the novice learning curve which will yield many mistakes and errors but look at those as a learning lesson and stepping stone. I have only been counting for about 8 months now with many ups and downs. I am at a point now where I could not imagine playing blackjack without counting.

As for progressions, I know a lot of people on this board use them but avoid them like the plague without the edge. Progressions don't work in the markets either. They are just a way to lose your money faster!

One thing I learned in the financial world is in order to make money and actually keep it, you must learn to protect loses and understand the risk of ruin which is something that is almost never talked about. I would suggest your largest bet never be more than 1%-2% of your bankroll, anything above this is gunslinging. So while you are learning basic stick to $5 tables, flat bet and have a bankroll of at least $500 and if you lose 10%-15% in a playing session than go home for that day.