honestly guys, why does it seem like blackjack is rigged?
- Thread starter jingber05
- Start date
It's selective memory. I frequently fall victim to this too because I'll be sitting on 18-20 and the dealer will turn over whatever card is needed for 11 (in my case it's almost always showing 2, turns over 9). I think to myself "of course he has it...", but when I run through it in my head usually that is the first or second time in 5-10 shoes.
Its an easy answer... it IS rigged. BJ is rigged in the house's favor from the get-go. The house wins 49% of hands, player wins 42.5%, and 8.5% of hands are pushed (playing perfect basic strategy). It should be obvious that the dealer winning 7.5 more hands out of every 100 is huge. So, why is the house edge only 0.5%? Splits, doubles, and blackjacks.
Edit: never fall into the trap of thinking that any casino game is a fair game. except for special promotions there are only 2 fair bets (bets, not games) in the casino. one is the double up option in VP, and the other is the odds bets in craps
Edit: never fall into the trap of thinking that any casino game is a fair game. except for special promotions there are only 2 fair bets (bets, not games) in the casino. one is the double up option in VP, and the other is the odds bets in craps
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Because it is. Where do you think the term House Edge comes from?:laugh:
But seriously, we've all been there and it is maddening at times. One of the big reasons IMO that it seems that dealers can perform miracles is that even when you are winning, you still probably lose as many hands, or more, than you win. The profits often come from the all the dd's, splits and bj's.
As Tree stated, it is selective memory. How many times have you heard someone post about how the dealer busted every hand and I made a hand out of every stiff I had? Well, KJ's recent post comes to mind but we tend to overlook the + variance and concentrate on the -. It's human nature.
Hang in there. Time is on your side.
But seriously, we've all been there and it is maddening at times. One of the big reasons IMO that it seems that dealers can perform miracles is that even when you are winning, you still probably lose as many hands, or more, than you win. The profits often come from the all the dd's, splits and bj's.
As Tree stated, it is selective memory. How many times have you heard someone post about how the dealer busted every hand and I made a hand out of every stiff I had? Well, KJ's recent post comes to mind but we tend to overlook the + variance and concentrate on the -. It's human nature.
Hang in there. Time is on your side.
Haunted Games - boo!
I played 7 hours at 6 different casinos the other day.
During good counts or bad, I have never been served so many 15's and 16's. I doubt it was a 2-sigma event, but it sure seemed like it.
One table filled up with customers just as the count went skyward. On one round, six hands were in play: four blackjacks, and two 16's - guess which two hands were mine? - as well as a dealer 20.
There were many other rounds with 20's all over the place, and 16's for me. To the point that it was spooky.
I think we're wired to notice the unusual, and create a narrative out of it, while not noticing the 100,000,000,000,000 other unusual things which also could have happened, but did not. And then we take that one thing we notice, and blow it out of proportion.
I think I haven't been really hit hard by variance, yet, because it doesn't faze me. I don't like losing max bets in high counts, but, in comparison to ploppy stupidity, getting ass-whipped by variance is nothing personal.
I played 7 hours at 6 different casinos the other day.
During good counts or bad, I have never been served so many 15's and 16's. I doubt it was a 2-sigma event, but it sure seemed like it.
One table filled up with customers just as the count went skyward. On one round, six hands were in play: four blackjacks, and two 16's - guess which two hands were mine? - as well as a dealer 20.
There were many other rounds with 20's all over the place, and 16's for me. To the point that it was spooky.
I think we're wired to notice the unusual, and create a narrative out of it, while not noticing the 100,000,000,000,000 other unusual things which also could have happened, but did not. And then we take that one thing we notice, and blow it out of proportion.
I think I haven't been really hit hard by variance, yet, because it doesn't faze me. I don't like losing max bets in high counts, but, in comparison to ploppy stupidity, getting ass-whipped by variance is nothing personal.
Any time a gambler starts talking about the unlikeliness of an event that happened or could happen to them I take them to the craps table. It doesnt matter if they are a progression better or someone talking about how unlikely the beating he just received at some table game was.
I record the last three rolls of the dice and ask, "What do you think are the odds of a hard 8 followed by a soft 4 and a yo(11)". They might say around 12,000 to 1 if they are sharp(its 11,664:1). Then I point out that it just happened. Rare events happen constantly in the casino.
I record the last three rolls of the dice and ask, "What do you think are the odds of a hard 8 followed by a soft 4 and a yo(11)". They might say around 12,000 to 1 if they are sharp(its 11,664:1). Then I point out that it just happened. Rare events happen constantly in the casino.
Variance is fickle. I just went through a bad stretch much like you are describing. Then, recently, sat down at a table, immediately got 3 double opportunities, won them all; the count went ballistic, won everything I tried. I got several doubles and a couple of snappers with big bets out. Best shoe I ever had.
Variance goes both ways. Enjoy the good ones. Tolerate the bad ones. Move on.
Variance goes both ways. Enjoy the good ones. Tolerate the bad ones. Move on.
It is and they are right up in there!
It is totally "rigged" and yes, the dealers pull those cards out of their anuses left and right. There I was the other day watching a dealer slam out back to back blackjacks while I got nothing but 16 hand after hand, shoe after shoe. Finally, I said exactly that... "You are really pulling cards out of your ass today, aren't you?" They smiled and kept dealing. After a few more hours of being brutally beaten and upon the dealer being relieved and leaving the table, I tackled them to the ground and began to check their pockets hurriedly because I knew I only had moments before security arrived. Alas, no pockets! The spandex type polyester pants had no pockets, so I whipped down their pants and sure enough 4 aces spit out from between their buttocks! Their heightened pulse and bodily contractions caused them to pop another card, the King of spades from their anus. I started screaming out, "I knew it! I knew it! It's all rigged!!! That's the missing king of spades!" Even with their pants to their ankles, the dealer was squirming and putting up a good fight and security was headed in my direction fast so I made for the door.
Moral of the story? Maybe sniff those cards... you just don't know where they've been...
It really is a case of selective memory and those times the dealer gets great cards, great hands and great pulls on top of their stiffs are going to linger in your mind more than the times you did the same. Let's not leave out good ol' house advantage so in a sense of the term the game really IS "rigged"! They are going to get great hands more often than you are and get great hands while you get garbage. It really really REALLY sticks in your mind when a dealer is "hot" for hours on end also.
It is totally "rigged" and yes, the dealers pull those cards out of their anuses left and right. There I was the other day watching a dealer slam out back to back blackjacks while I got nothing but 16 hand after hand, shoe after shoe. Finally, I said exactly that... "You are really pulling cards out of your ass today, aren't you?" They smiled and kept dealing. After a few more hours of being brutally beaten and upon the dealer being relieved and leaving the table, I tackled them to the ground and began to check their pockets hurriedly because I knew I only had moments before security arrived. Alas, no pockets! The spandex type polyester pants had no pockets, so I whipped down their pants and sure enough 4 aces spit out from between their buttocks! Their heightened pulse and bodily contractions caused them to pop another card, the King of spades from their anus. I started screaming out, "I knew it! I knew it! It's all rigged!!! That's the missing king of spades!" Even with their pants to their ankles, the dealer was squirming and putting up a good fight and security was headed in my direction fast so I made for the door.
Moral of the story? Maybe sniff those cards... you just don't know where they've been...
It really is a case of selective memory and those times the dealer gets great cards, great hands and great pulls on top of their stiffs are going to linger in your mind more than the times you did the same. Let's not leave out good ol' house advantage so in a sense of the term the game really IS "rigged"! They are going to get great hands more often than you are and get great hands while you get garbage. It really really REALLY sticks in your mind when a dealer is "hot" for hours on end also.
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