How do you deal with variance?

C

CalgaryBlackJack

Member
First of all I would like to say I'm new to these boards and I do know the basics of counting.

I can keep a high-lo count no problem through 6 decks and true count.

But it seems everytime I go into the casino and want to challenge myself mentally and try to give myself a edge. I get my butt kicked on the bigger bets where we are suppose to have a edge.

Granted I don't play with a lot of money and my min-max is only 5-25 when I'm counting.

But I've never had any success when my big bet is out there and its in favor of the player.

Now variance has a big part of this and I know im not suppose to be "invincible"when I know how to count but it hurts when you know you have a edge for that section of the shoe and you get eaten alive.

So my question is how do you deal with the variance and have any of you ever started counting and ran into a wall like I have and you would rather just play basic strategy cause its so mentally straining counting cards?
 
B

BJLFS

Well-Known Member
Tell me when you find out. I'd like to know myself.

I've hit a patch of NV and can't seem to get out of it. It came on like a ton of bricks. All of a sudden it just hit last week in Reno. Haven't been able to get out of it. What I usually do is just keep thinking that better times are ahead.
 
CountingCards

CountingCards

Active Member
A 1-5 spread as you described is not nearly enough to beat a 6 deck game. Also, unless you have ridiculously good rules and deep penetration, that kind of spread is not even worth your time. **based on results from CVCX Hi/Lo with I18 and Fab4**
 
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blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
Those Big Bets

Those big bets should not be big in your mind. Even though you are only betting a top bet of $25. If you play with a low ror then the variance won't be as damaging to your bank or your psyche.

A 1 to 5 spread can win, depends on how you play. Need to avoid negative hands whenever possible.

Variance is part of the game, must accept that or stop playing.

:joker::whip:
good cards
 
kewljason

kewljason

Well-Known Member
Variance can be a bitch! Without a doubt the most difficult part of the whole learning process. :sad: Unfortunately, your results are going to be reflective of what happens when you have your big bets out and in the short term that means you can and will lose quickly and big sometimes. That is why you need to be well bankrolled to play.

So far this year I have played what would equate to about 145 hours and am in the red 248 units and my results are very mild. Just wait until you hear some of the horror stories. :sad:
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
CalgaryBlackJack said:
So my question is how do you deal with the variance and have any of you ever started counting and ran into a wall like I have and you would rather just play basic strategy cause its so mentally straining counting cards?
Click to expand...
Simple answer - have an adequate bankroll. That's how the casinos deal with variance.

Based on the second part of your question, you clearly need to do more reading and practice more. If you don't trust the math, perhaps you shouldn't be playing.
 
G

gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
CalgaryBlackJack said:
First of all I would like to say I'm new to these boards and I do know the basics of counting.

I can keep a high-lo count no problem through 6 decks and true count.

But it seems everytime I go into the casino and want to challenge myself mentally and try to give myself a edge. I get my butt kicked on the bigger bets where we are suppose to have a edge.

Granted I don't play with a lot of money and my min-max is only 5-25 when I'm counting.

But I've never had any success when my big bet is out there and its in favor of the player.

Now variance has a big part of this and I know im not suppose to be "invincible"when I know how to count but it hurts when you know you have a edge for that section of the shoe and you get eaten alive.

So my question is how do you deal with the variance and have any of you ever started counting and ran into a wall like I have and you would rather just play basic strategy cause its so mentally straining counting cards?
Click to expand...
1 to 5 spread against a 6 deck requires heavy wonging to get the money.
Make sure your count is accurate. Use a bettor count against 6 decks like
Halves. And the best way to handle variance especially against 6 decks:
Bankroll. Don't even think about it with less than 200 max bet units. I recommend twice as many. But a big BR is no excuse for sloppy play!
 
blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
I Like This

21forme said:
Simple answer - have an adequate bankroll. That's how the casinos deal with variance.

Based on the second part of your question, you clearly need to do more reading and practice more. If you don't trust the math, perhaps you shouldn't be playing.
Click to expand...
I think very well stated. The undercapitalized pseudo counter loses and then can't except the variance, even when they claim they understand it.
 
S

Syph

Well-Known Member
The best advice I can give you is to stop counting and take up poker, but since no one ever takes this advice ...

Counting is a long term investment. Daily results are meaningless. Fine. What I found helpful, however, was to view all losses as temporary bank deposits. The bankroll you are playing from (and I assume you have one) is for counting. Nothing more. Where it sits for the next thousand hours of play (or two thousand with your spread), is irrelevant. You are not taking rent out of it, you are not going to movies with it, you are not giving it to panhandlers/dealers.

Provided the money makes a direct path from your pocket, to the casinos, it is virtually assured of returning to you, with interest, given a long enough time line.

So where it sits overnight, or for a few months, or a year, shouldn't matter. In fact, it's probably safer sitting in the vaults of your local casino than under your bed (or your bank, for that matter). See, all this time you were bummed out over losing X-amount of money, when in fact the BJ gods were simply protecting their investment by placing your money in a more secure environment until such time as the terms of the contract were up.

Those BJ gods are very clever. And always have the best interests at heart for the faithful.

Honest.

Now, if not having this money causes an inconvenience to your lifestyle, it is money that you simply couldn't afford to invest to begin with. You were worshiping with ear-marked cash. The gods don't like this. It takes time, even for a god, to materialize return. And if you welch out part way through the worship process, the gods get very, very angry. The agreement is immediately nullified and all assets are frozen.

The gods don't mess around with broken contracts, but they will always welcome you back into their fold.

They're actually pretty cool about that.

Best,
Syph
 
jack.jackson

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
CalgaryBlackJack said:
First of all I would like to say I'm new to these boards and I do know the basics of counting.

I can keep a high-lo count no problem through 6 decks and true count.

But it seems everytime I go into the casino and want to challenge myself mentally and try to give myself a edge. I get my butt kicked on the bigger bets where we are suppose to have a edge.

Granted I don't play with a lot of money and my min-max is only 5-25 when I'm counting.

But I've never had any success when my big bet is out there and its in favor of the player.

Now variance has a big part of this and I know im not suppose to be "invincible"when I know how to count but it hurts when you know you have a edge for that section of the shoe and you get eaten alive.

So my question is how do you deal with the variance and have any of you ever started counting and ran into a wall like I have and you would rather just play basic strategy cause its so mentally straining counting cards?
Click to expand...
Try taking a break, and see how you feel after a couple weeks. A break can do wonders sometimes.

According to CVCX, unless your backcounting, your RoR is actually higher with a 1:5 spead than it is with a 1:10(optimal). Also you may want to stick with four bet increments, spread to two hands, while never doubling more than your last bet. And only raise your bets on wins if you really want to play it safe. Of course these are only options, but you may sleep better at night. Bottom line is, especially with multiple decks, you have to bet your money right.
 
CountingCards

CountingCards

Active Member
Syph said:
See, all this time you were bummed out over losing X-amount of money, when in fact the BJ gods were simply protecting their investment by placing your money in a more secure environment until such time as the terms of the contract were up.

Those BJ gods are very clever. And always have the best interests at heart for the faithful.

Honest.

Now, if not having this money causes an inconvenience to your lifestyle, it is money that you simply couldn't afford to invest to begin with. You were worshiping with ear-marked cash. The gods don't like this. It takes time, even for a god, to materialize return. And if you welch out part way through the worship process, the gods get very, very angry. The agreement is immediately nullified and all assets are frozen.

The gods don't mess around with broken contracts, but they will always welcome you back into their fold.

They're actually pretty cool about that.

Best,
Syph
Click to expand...
This post warms my heart.
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
I deal with variance the same way I deal with breathing. It's there, and theres nothing to be done about it.
 
S

Shoofly

Well-Known Member
CalgaryBlackJack said:
First of all I would like to say I'm new to So my question is how do you deal with the variance and have any of you ever started counting and ran into a wall like I have and you would rather just play basic strategy cause its so mentally straining counting cards?
Click to expand...
After a while, straight BS becomes boring because it is so automatic. Counting, using index, spreading bets, etc. are the things that keep it interesting. To handle variance, just try to use a little logic. 1. You are playing with an advantage. 2. There is such a thing as negative variance. Logical conclusion - There must also be such a thing as positive variance. The only problem is we don't know when it will show up.
 
C

CalgaryBlackJack

Member
Syph said:
The best advice I can give you is to stop counting and take up poker, but since no one ever takes this advice ...

Counting is a long term investment. Daily results are meaningless. Fine. What I found helpful, however, was to view all losses as temporary bank deposits. The bankroll you are playing from (and I assume you have one) is for counting. Nothing more. Where it sits for the next thousand hours of play (or two thousand with your spread), is irrelevant. You are not taking rent out of it, you are not going to movies with it, you are not giving it to panhandlers/dealers.

Provided the money makes a direct path from your pocket, to the casinos, it is virtually assured of returning to you, with interest, given a long enough time line.

So where it sits overnight, or for a few months, or a year, shouldn't matter. In fact, it's probably safer sitting in the vaults of your local casino than under your bed (or your bank, for that matter). See, all this time you were bummed out over losing X-amount of money, when in fact the BJ gods were simply protecting their investment by placing your money in a more secure environment until such time as the terms of the contract were up.

Those BJ gods are very clever. And always have the best interests at heart for the faithful.

Honest.

Now, if not having this money causes an inconvenience to your lifestyle, it is money that you simply couldn't afford to invest to begin with. You were worshiping with ear-marked cash. The gods don't like this. It takes time, even for a god, to materialize return. And if you welch out part way through the worship process, the gods get very, very angry. The agreement is immediately nullified and all assets are frozen.

The gods don't mess around with broken contracts, but they will always welcome you back into their fold.

They're actually pretty cool about that.

Best,
Syph
Click to expand...
I use to play poker, but its just to cruel of a game. As you can tell I have a pretty short temper from my last few posts on here telling you my "horror" stories. I am actually a really decent poker player but I find poker is way harder mentally then counting cards hours on end.

Here's one example of a hand I played that just made me cringe each time I think about it.

Table $1-$2 no limit hold em
I'm on the button looking down at K-8 suited. 3 limpers, I raise $15 as I have a dominate postion with limpers. Blinds fold all 3 limpers call.

Flop comes 2-5-8 rainbow

It gets checked around to me. I know 2 of the limpers are tight aggressive players as myself so I raise another $15 feeling I have the best hand. The 2 tight aggressive fold. Its me and the other guy now that I know he is super loose. He reraises me for another $30. I push in all my chips as I am confident I have the best hand by far and its a miss flop for straights and other draws.

He calls without hesitation. At that point I said "I'm screwed" we were sitting on opposite ends and I turned over my cards reluctantly knowing if someone called a allin bet that fast hes got me probably 2 pair or playing pockets. I looked across the table and said "Trips?" The table looks back at me and says "no he has 2,3"

I look around in disbelief. He has nothing....

turn 3

dealer says sorry bad luck.

river blank.

He called my all in bet with nothing! The only thing he can beat is highcard! I was furious after I saw the dealer push my chips towards him and he was starting to stack my chips up with a face of grattitude.

I didn't give him any odds on the all in bet and even if I did he has to know the only thing he can beat is highcard. Thats just sick and I rather get beaten by the house then a dumbass anyday.
 
C

CalgaryBlackJack

Member
CountingCards said:
A 1-5 spread as you described is not nearly enough to beat a 6 deck game. Also, unless you have ridiculously good rules and deep penetration, that kind of spread is not even worth your time. **based on results from CVCX Hi/Lo with I18 and Fab4**
Click to expand...

What do you suggest for a spread?

Also how much would you bring to a table.
 
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