Hypothetical Question

[SPX]

Here's one for the theoreticians and math guys out there.

If you had a mind that worked so efficiently and computer-like that you could refigure on the spot the proper basic strategy based upon every card that has been played so far, would that player have an advantage over the house? And if so, to what extent?

Let's consider both the 1 deck and 6 deck game.

 

[sagefr0g]

Here's one for the theoreticians and math guys out there.

If you had a mind that worked so efficiently and computer-like that you could refigure on the spot the proper basic strategy based upon every card that has been played, would that player have an advantage over the house? And if so, to what extent?

Let's consider both the 1 deck and 6 deck game.

i dunno but i do know if the dealer is dealt a blackjack on the first hand an i've got sixteen or what ever except a blackjack and i don't take insurance then i lose.
but just guessing i'd imagine you could beat the pants off the dealer.

 

[Canceler]

Like knowing a gazillion indices...

I’m thinking this question almost boils down to whether you can win by using index plays alone. Assuming flat betting.

 

[SPX]

I’m thinking this question almost boils down to whether you can win by using index plays alone. Assuming flat betting.

Yeah, but it would be index play honed and refined to perfection so that you can calculate THE proper play under every possible circumstance. And instead of just having a general count of the cards, would know EXACTLY what's been played and would be able to adjust your play accordingly.

 

[rukus]

i believe Kenny Uston wrote about the edge one would get when playing with a computer that could calculate perfect play based on knowing all cards played up to that point. i dont remember the edge number he quoted, but i do recall him writing that they won about 80% of the time (vs about 65% of the time from counting regularly). check out Uston on Blackjack as i think this was the book i read about it in... there was a chapter+ on computer play. or maybe you could google it.

 

[halcyon1234]

I asked that question a while ago. Here's the thread:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4643

 

[EasyRhino]

I guess you'd still need to vary your bets (according to the computer), unless the game was a liberal SD game, or was basically dealt to the bottom.

 

[SPX]

I would think you would have a nice advantage. After all, depth charging works on the same principle, but would be a lot more imprecise.

With PERFECT knowledge I would think you would be able to even beat the 6 deck game . . . but I don't know.

 

[k_c]

Perfect Play

Here's one for the theoreticians and math guys out there.

If you had a mind that worked so efficiently and computer-like that you could refigure on the spot the proper basic strategy based upon every card that has been played so far, would that player have an advantage over the house? And if so, to what extent?

Let's consider both the 1 deck and 6 deck game.

That's what the program I released is all about. It can give you the exactly correct play for any number of decks and shoe state and the overall expected value for that shoe state. What it can't give is the overall effect of always making the correct play. What would need to be done is to sim a large number of shoe states, let the program figure the overall EV for each state, and record the results.

This would be a purely theoretical exercise because I don't think it's humanly possible for someone to know every card played and to use the info to make the right play. The actual theoretical result would depend upon starting number of decks and penetration.

k_c

 

[Cardcounter]

What you are talking about is not basic!

If you know the correct play for every hand considering the cards that have been played that is not basic stragedy that is deck composition stragedy. Deck composition stragedy will be a little different than basic stragedy for example if you have 10,2 vs a 4 you hit but basic stragedy says too stay. However if you have more players at the table you can make more adjustments. Such as taking insurance when you see few tens in peoples hands.

 

[SPX]

If you know the correct play for every hand considering the cards that have been played that is not basic stragedy that is deck composition stragedy.

Well of course Basic Strategy is a just a name and I've never been sure that it's the most appropriate name at that. But such is semantics.

I think in the post Halcyon referenced above someone referred to it as PERFECT STRATEGY. We'll use that.

 

[blackjack avenger]

It Depends

If flat betting while playing with a computer (often illegial) telling you the correct strategy plays, your advantage would be very rule dependent and depending on the number of decks.

Indices increase in value as you spread.

 

[tribute]

If you know the correct play for every hand considering the cards that have been played that is not basic stragedy that is deck composition stragedy. Deck composition stragedy will be a little different than basic stragedy for example if you have 10,2 vs a 4 you hit but basic stragedy says too stay. However if you have more players at the table you can make more adjustments. Such as taking insurance when you see few tens in peoples hands.

In "Blackjack Bluebook II", Fred Renzey talks about these strategies along with table composition and how to maximize play decisions in addition to basic strategy plays. I think it's an excellent book for ideas on refining play and gaining a little more advantage over the house. I also appreciate what I have learned about hand interaction.

 

[k_c]

If you know the correct play for every hand considering the cards that have been played that is not basic stragedy that is deck composition stragedy. Deck composition stragedy will be a little different than basic stragedy for example if you have 10,2 vs a 4 you hit but basic stragedy says too stay. However if you have more players at the table you can make more adjustments. Such as taking insurance when you see few tens in peoples hands.

Perfect play means more than what you are suggesting. You're right that the right comp dependent play for 10-2 versus 4 is hit but that is for a full shoe state and 7 or fewer decks if S17 and 2 or fewer decks if H17. Perfect play means making the correct play for any shoe state regardless of how likely or unlikely the probability of the shoe state occurring is. For example if player is dealt 10-2 versus 4 from a single deck where 4 nines have been removed, it is better to stand rather than hit. It's humanly impossible to play all shoe states perfectly, though. Only a computer could do it.

It is humanly possible to make a few comp dependent plays to refine full shoe basic strategy. There are a lot of hand compositions possible, though, and it would be very difficult to remember all of them.

k_c