Knowledge Of Math Adds Up In Sports Betting

[zengrifter]

KNOWLEDGE OF MATH ADDS UP IN SPORTS BETTING

There's a school of thought that prescribes to the notion that it's the proficient bettors, more than the astute handicappers, who wind up with the cash at the end of a sports betting transaction. While it surely helps to have expertise in both areas, some also believe that success at the windows is even more dependent on having a working knowledge of mathematics.

On that count, you won't get any arguments from Mike Orkin, a professor of statistics at California State University at Hayward and the author of two books on the role probability and chance play in gambling, "Can You Win?" and "What Are the Odds?"

"You really can't win at gambling unless you understand math," contends Orkin, who once taught an accredited course at Hayward on sports betting, horse racing and casino gambling. "You don't have to have a Ph.D. but you do have to have a mathematical mind."

Orkin explained that the marriage of mathematics and gambling goes back decades.

...more - (Dead link: http://www.cappersmall.com/sportscenter/CM-Columns/KNOWLEDGE-OF-MATH-ADDS-UP-IN-SPORTS-BETTING9137.html)

 

[ScottH]

You honestly don't need to know ANYTHING about sports in order to win at sportsbetting. In fact, it's a lot easier to make money that way.

It's not that easy to be a great sports handicapper. It's a lot of work, and you always have to keep yourself updated with the latest news about your teams, etc. It's still a little work, but there isn't very much guesswork in the mathematical approach to sportsbetting, and it still gets the money.

 

[MEDITANK]

Even more so in the basic understanding of math, when you are a specialist in half-time wagering:grin: The incredible line values that one can get. Usually one NFL game per week offers outstanding line value, used to do quite well at it and its very strange I never saw any articles about it in any gambling book. The only drawback is that it's alot of work watching simultaneous games, but usually right before halftime, you can eliminate a good portion of the games and one will stick right out. it's all about line value, always has been. And half-time wagers are fabulous if you can get your action in fast enough.

 

[shadroch]

The one successful sports bettor that I know knows almost nothing about sports.
His only method is to put away Mondays paper,wait until Sat. compare the two lines and bet whichever games have moved X amount of points.

 

[MEDITANK]

The one successful sports bettor that I know knows almost nothing about sports.
His only method is to put away Mondays paper,wait until Sat. compare the two lines and bet whichever games have moved X amount of points.

Smart man, it's all about line value. Especially when a line moves up or down past the pivot numbers (3, 7, etc). Half time lines about 10% of the time can give you a game with 10 or more points away from the opening line. THAT is where the real value can come in. Assuming the starting QB's were not injured before the half ends, in that case, NL will be given and action not offered. A half time line 10 or more points away from the opening spread wins around 71% of the time based upon 10 years of back referencing games vs. what the closing line was. My fav example of how this works is during a playoff game when the Buff Bills were home during a playoff game vs. the Houston Oilers. Bills were -6 1/2 for the entire game. Halftime score was something like 32-3 Oilers. Buffalo looked pitiful, halftime line was one half of the closing line = 3 to 3.5 at most casinos. Buffalo came back to win and the almost covered the 6 1/2 points! I remember they won by 6. However, when in light of the half time line, Buffalo could have LOST the game by 25 (29 - 3.5 = 25.5pts) and you would have won the halftime bet of Bills -3.5.

The line value? Simple:

THE GAME: Bills -6.5
HALF TIME: Bills -3.5 (if you do the math, this is actually Bills +25!!!)

25 pts + 6.5 = 31.5 pts of value.

THAT is line value.

The reason being, NFL lines are set by the oddsmakers and moved by the betting public. The games for the most part, generally speaking on the average, fairly set. The handicapping has already been done for the mathematical bettor. This bettor can take advantage of teams that have a tendency of starting out of the gates with guns ablazing vs. a team that is slow starting.

I didn't use this way of betting for college games due to lack of parity and quite frankly although you can get plenty of line value, unless you know of a coaches tendency, I avoided college football halftimes unless if the game involved Notre Dame(Holtz era) in the game with ND up by 30-35 pts. Holtz would always put in the scrubs in the 3rd quarter till the end whenver he was up by the mid 30's. Used to make easy money on Air Force this way as ND and AF would usually trade points. ND would frequently be laying 30-33 pts as a home fav. Half time line was typically 16-17 making ND a 46-50 pt home favorite under Holtz. Doesn't take an Einstein to figure out where the line value is here.

 

[ChefJJ]

My fav example of how this works is during a playoff game when the Buff Bills were home during a playoff game vs. the Houston Oilers. Bills were -6 1/2 for the entire game. Halftime score was something like 32-3 Oilers. Buffalo looked pitiful, halftime line was one half of the closing line = 3 to 3.5 at most casinos. Buffalo came back to win and the almost covered the 6 1/2 points! I remember they won by 6.

I believe Frank Reich came in for Jim Kelly and went nuts. Classic game.

 

[MEDITANK]

I believe Frank Reich came in for Jim Kelly and went nuts. Classic game.

Remembered it quite well, I had the Bills at the half:laugh:
All the way to the ticket counter after the game ended:joker:

Bills at home in the freezing snow hosting a dome team and they are a 25 point underdog at home? WTF? huh? I mean c'mon, line value doesn't get any better than this.

Another angle I used to play with moderate success is to middle a game. Bet a game in which you are betting on a team that usually starts out of the gates fast and lay the money on the fast starter. Wait for the half to see how the game is playing out, if your team is covering the spread at the half by a decent margin(7pts), play the other team at the half and middle it laying one half of your initial wager of the fast starting team. that way if you lose the half-time bet, you still come out ahead. Played U. Miami at home vs. Boston College back in the early 90's. Miami was laying 17 I think. Miami was leading by 30-35 at the half, half time line was 10. I took BC at the half +10, which works out to 35-17 + 10 = 28pts!

Effectively that is a 28 point middle, definitely doable. My number crunching came out to an edge for the better with a minimum of 14 points for a middle to hit. BC ended up covering the half time by 7 points and I won both sides! It also cuts your risk down just in case if BC came back and won the game. Not likely though given U. Miami's very stingy defense and the way they used to dominate 4th quarters.

 

[ScottH]

The line value? Simple:

THE GAME: Bills -6.5
HALF TIME: Bills -3.5 (if you do the math, this is actually Bills +25!!!)

Half time lines can vary wildly from the start line. It's not just game line/2 for the half line. It depends on a lot of things, like the score. If the Bill are up 40-7 and the line is Bills -3.5 that's probably not a good bet since they aren't really trying to score too many more points, they just want to waste time and end the game. They won't be trying to cover the second half line, they are just trying to win the game.

 

[ScottH]

The one successful sports bettor that I know knows almost nothing about sports.
His only method is to put away Mondays paper,wait until Sat. compare the two lines and bet whichever games have moved X amount of points.

That method works great. It's a lot easier to do online though. You can have access to a ton of sports books just a click away to find the best lines. Too bad for the stupid new legislation that makes that a lot harder to do now.

 

[MEDITANK]

Half time lines can vary wildly from the start line. It's not just game line/2 for the half line. It depends on a lot of things, like the score. If the Bill are up 40-7 and the line is Bills -3.5 that's probably not a good bet since they aren't really trying to score too many more points, they just want to waste time and end the game. They won't be trying to cover the second half line, they are just trying to win the game.

No offense but I think you should re-read my first post. No way, no how is this what I was suggesting. A team up 40-7 at the half and is -3.5 for the entire game and your are suggesting that laying MORE points at the half for the team is a great bet? Huh? You would be doing the exact opposite of what you should be doing. The line value here would be to take the team trailing 40-7. The topic of this discussion is LINE VALUE. Disagree on the "wild" half time lines. Basically speaking, the oddsmaker will take the entire spread for the game and divide it in half +/- 2 pts max. I've seen a slight moneyline increase from the usual -110, to around -130, but with the value one would receive is incomparable based upon half time scores.

On the online betting suggestion, yes I've thought about it, but I would not want to risk any funds deposited into a site that could be confiscated or frozen by the FEDS. But your'e right. Online is the only way to go in this avenue. Personally speaking, I've stepped away from sports wagering many years ago because of the inconvenience of driving 35 miles to the border just to place a wager then drive back home. Too much time and energy expended for the amount of money wagered.

Thanks for your comments though.

 

[supercoolmancool]

Basically speaking, the oddsmaker will take the entire spread for the game and divide it in half +/- 2 pts max.

That's not true at all.

 

[ChefJJ]

It's pretty typical, considering most NFL games are not blowouts at the half...college is a completely different story.

However, I look for blowout games at half to exhibit two things:

1. The team up big is NOT necessarily looking to score... i.e. sit on the ball.
2. The team down big is going balls out to score quick.

So, a small spread in a blowout is generally a bargain in my eyes. Of course, we've all seen those games where a really-behind team just turns the ball over continuously in futility, resulting in the up team scoring even more. But hell, it's all good.

good luck

 

[ScottH]

The line value here would be to take the team trailing 40-7.

That's what I was saying.

No offense but I think you should re-read my first post.

I wasn't trying to find fault with your post and correct it or anything. I think it may have came across like that. I don't really know anything about sportsbetting. Well, I know enough to make some winning bets, but not enough to give out any advice.

Disagree on the "wild" half time lines. Basically speaking, the oddsmaker will take the entire spread for the game and divide it in half +/- 2 pts max.

I've had only limited experience with sportsbetting but I've seen many halftime lines WAY OFF from game/2 +/- 2 points. The current score of the game can change the second half line drastically from the original game line.

 

[MEDITANK]

That's not true at all.

Well, you can use that to your advantage then, all the more power to you. At the books that I used to deal with, they were all very predictable and want I stated is absolutely true. You can also add over/under totals to be exactly 1/2 of the original o/u line for the whole game, but I don't play totals. If the half time line is at a huge disadvantage to you, you need to find another book. I never deal with bookies. In the limited area where I live, most of the bookies here will middle their lines. On a Vegas line of -3 on the home fav for example, the bookie will quote a line of -3.5 for the home fav and +2.5 if you want the road underdog. the money line remains the same: -110 Statistically speaking, the bookie will add another 10% on top of the 9.09% juice they are already getting. On a line of -7, this one bookie did the -7.5 for the fav and +6.5 for the underdog, etc. etc. no one is forcing the bettor to take those sucker bets, so always shop shop shop around. IMO, too much work and too much of a hassle to deal with these imbeciles looking for suckers. Since I live near the Mexican border, I used to use Agua Caliente predominantly but one had to travel down there in person to place the wager. They had a telephone wagering system but you had to open up the account in person down there AND the wager has to made from a NON USA phone due to federal laws prohibiting interstate wagering. The loophole that used to exist that was a gray area of sorts, was that a SO. California wager made to Mexico is not interstate, because you were going through international borders. But I believe the recent law changes have closed this hole. Like I said, this isn't something I do anymore, quit in 95, so I don't know the latest laws.

 

[MEDITANK]

It's pretty typical, considering most NFL games are not blowouts at the half...college is a completely different story.

However, I look for blowout games at half to exhibit two things:

1. The team up big is NOT necessarily looking to score... i.e. sit on the ball.
2. The team down big is going balls out to score quick.

So, a small spread in a blowout is generally a bargain in my eyes. Of course, we've all seen those games where a really-behind team just turns the ball over continuously in futility, resulting in the up team scoring even more. But hell, it's all good.

good luck

Chef, yes, absolutely! Especially since the salary cap era we are in now, the days of stacked teams are over. Parity is now a fact in the NFL and the bettor can count on it. Your points 1 & 2 are highly accurate. Even MORE of a point when you are talking about a specific game involving divisional opponents! Because of familiarity. The non conference games are slightly more of a risk due to the fact that those two teams probably haven't played each other in years, but still, value can be found. From my past many years of experience, I can usually find 1 very good half time bet per week. Maybe two if you are fortunate that meet the 10pts or greater criteria. But I never saw more than 2 in any one week. As an added bonus, some casinos will allow you to tease the half time line 6 to 7 pts with another game. The 7pt teaser will cost you another -10 to make it -120 whereas 6pts is -110. The key thing that I would look for in addition to the 10pt criteria, is whether or not the underdog I am planning on betting on is moving the ball well but failed to score due to a bad penalty, dropped balls, etc. Have seen many great potential wagers destroyed right before the half due to the prevent defense TD allowed just seconds before the half, but that's the way it goes quite frequently. If that team did fail to score right before the half, that makes that team an even more attractive wager at the half.

 

[ChefJJ]

The key thing that I would look for in addition to the 10pt criteria, is whether or not the underdog I am planning on betting on is moving the ball well but failed to score due to a bad penalty, dropped balls, etc. Have seen many great potential wagers destroyed right before the half due to the prevent defense TD allowed just seconds before the half, but that's the way it goes quite frequently. If that team did fail to score right before the half, that makes that team an even more attractive wager at the half.

That's where the "knowledge & awareness of the game" bettor can strike into those opportunities. Not saying that the pure mathematical bettor isn't successful, those are just two (and occasionally combined) schools of thought.

good luck

 

[ScottH]

At the books that I used to deal with, they were all very predictable and want I stated is absolutely true. You can also add over/under totals to be exactly 1/2 of the original o/u line for the whole game, but I don't play totals.

When I talked about second half bets being way off of the game/2 line, I was talking about second half bets with the first half already played. I'm starting to think maybe you were talking about second half bets before the game even started. If that's the case I would agree, that the second half is about game line/2.

 

[ChefJJ]

When I talked about second half bets being way off of the game/2 line, I was talking about second half bets with the first half already played. I'm starting to think maybe you were talking about second half bets before the game even started. If that's the case I would agree, that the second half is about game line/2.

Not starting an argument...but I've never seen a book post a 2nd half line before the game started. But I could be wrong, and I've surely never been to every book.

 

[MEDITANK]

When I talked about second half bets being way off of the game/2 line, I was talking about second half bets with the first half already played. I'm starting to think maybe you were talking about second half bets before the game even started. If that's the case I would agree, that the second half is about game line/2.

No, you assumed correctly. There would be zero line value when betting a half time wager without the 1st half score to go on. That would be foolish.
The only thing I can say is that the book(s) you obtain quotes from are setting whacky half time lines. Way back when, I used to have a phone account with an international book in Antigua, BWI. Apparently, they handle more action than Vegas does from what I've heard. Antigua's lines matched Caliente's to the T. However, it would take far less money to move the line at Caliente than at Antigua. Half-time limits were 1K at Caliente and 10K at Antigua. The bad thing about Caliente vs. Antigua, is that Caliente would only offer half-time lines televised on the major networks, since not all games were on TV, they was not a half time line on those non-televised games whereas Antigua had action offered on ALL NFL half times. Stupid rule that I never understood, but just another reason why I gave it up.

 

[ChefJJ]

The bad thing about Caliente vs. Antigua, is that Caliente would only offer half-time lines televised on the major networks, since not all games were on TV, they was not a half time line on those non-televised games whereas Antigua had action offered on ALL NFL half times. Stupid rule that I never understood, but just another reason why I gave it up.

Sad thing there wasn't Sunday Ticket back then!!!